🟨 January - Massive BULLISH SignJANUARY HAS A PROVEN PREDICTIVE POWER FOR THE END OF THE YEAR
WHY THIS MATTERS
This indicator has been 90% correct since 1950. It is used on the SP500.
BY THE NUMBERS
The January Trifecta (def below) has occured 31 years since 1950. 28 of them we have followed with positive year for SP
Average gain during January Trifecta is +17%
If January Barometer closes above 5% (CURRENTLY +6% for month), average gain is 17.5%
If you are coming from a negative previous year (like we have 2022) and we get the January Trifecta the average gain is 28.9%
Down year follwed by January Trifecta has happened 10 times since 1950. Look them up: 1954, 1958, 1961, 1963, 1971, 195, 1995, 2012, 2019, 2023
THE DEFINITIONS
Santa Clause Rally - last 5 days oof Dec + 2d Jan
January "First Five Days" - the total move for the first 5 trading days of Jan
January Barometer - the total move of the Jan Mov
January Trifecta - Positive signs from Santa Clause Rally, First Five Days and the Barometer
Januaryeffect
BTC Pi Cycle Bullrun SignalHello friends
Today im going to show you a good reason for next Bullrun in Bitcoin.
Pi cycle includes 2 Moving Average:
One Long MA and One Short MA.
when we devide this 2 MA the result equals PI number (around 3.15)
The best Long MA is 471 DAY and the best Short MA is 150 DAY.
I illustrate them in BLX chart and yo see the last 2 times that Pi cycle Bottom works properly.
the first Bottom was on JAN 2015 and second Bottom was on JAN 2019 and NOW on JAN 2023 (as i show them with Red Circles in my chart)
the indicator signal a Potential Bottom for BTC.
If Short MA (RED) surpass Long MA(GREEN) we call it a PARABOLA and the Bottom confirmed.
If you think more about that you understand this cycle happened every 4 years actually on January.
2015 - 2019 and NOW 2023.
So i explained Technical and Time Cycle Analysis for this Strong Indicator.
Hope it predict Bottoms WELL.
Be Profitable
Thank You for reading my Idea
Share me your Opinion.
Do you think BTC make a bottom NOW?
January EffectHello guys! Have you ever heard of the "January effect"? It's a pattern that has been observed in financial markets where the prices of small cap stocks tend to go up in the month of January. Some people think this happens because of tax-loss selling (when investors sell stocks that aren't doing well in order to reduce their tax burden) or because more people are interested in buying small cap stocks at the start of a new year. It's important to remember that the January effect isn't a sure thing and shouldn't be the only reason you make investment decisions.
What do you think about this effect?
Did the January Barometer just signal a crash?The January Barometer is a statistical phenomenon that looks back at the last 50+ years of the SPY's history and states that (as of last year):
A POSITIVE close in January has a 83% chance of a positive year
A NEGATIVE close in January has only a 65% chance of a positive year (we just had this happen)
A POSITIVE close in January has a 70% chance of a positive February
A NEGATIVE close in January has a 60% chance of a negative February
January 2020 had a negative close but ended the year positively which made it fall within the 65% probability expect. However, that January did correctly predict a negative February which had a 60% chance of happening.
These are only statistics... no one KNOWS the future... but understanding this concept should hopefully give traders some insight on how to position themselves going into next month, the rest of the quarter, and the rest of the year!
BTC January Selloff Effect - Historic Corrections 2016-2020January has historically been one of the worst months for Bitcoin, thus extreme caution should be taken on the long side as I have mentioned earlier.
Here we can see the early January profit taking and selloffs since 2016.
Since Bitcoin just crashed around -20% in 2 days, this year might not be any different.
The US Dollar has also been gaining upwards momentum recently. As Bitcoin is inversely correlated with the USD, Bitcoin's chances this month will be decreased further if USD continues to go up in value.
I am currently looking at 30k as a support and accumulation area, and I am still very optimistic for Bitcoin this year, but that will be for another post. For now, I would suggest to keep an eye on the DXY (US Dollar Currency Index) and plan ahead for a possible comeback for Bitcoin in late January or later.
What do you think?
The January Effect ExplainedIn this post, I'll be talking about the January Effect as the stock market looks to open for the first time in 2021.
The January Effect
- This is a hypothesis that securities' prices rise in January more than any other month of the year.
- This allows investors to purchase prices prior to January, when it's relatively undervalued, and sell for a profit in January when prices are valued at the right price/overvalued.
- The premise of this hypothesis is that the market is inefficient
- There have been many arguments posed to explain this phenomenon
- Some say that this is due to the sell-off that occurs during December, as investors realize their capital gains
- Others say that it has to do with people investing their year-end bonus into the financial markets
- Nonetheless, it's important to understand that the January Effect does not take place all the time.
Mike's Insight
A lot of the major companies, almost dominantly tech companies, which lead the indicators have had a decent year despite the chaos. Additionally, with the stimulus package and expectations regarding covid vaccines, I believe that there's a high probability that we'll witness the January Effect this year.
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If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
LMB a promising "January effect" playSmall- and micro-cap stocks trading near their 52-week lows tend to outperform the market in January. One of my preferred picks to profit from the "January effect" is Limbach Holdings. Now far off its 11-dollar highs earlier this year, LMB has some upward momentum in both its share price and its analyst ratings. Expected to greatly improve its earnings in 2020, LMB looks undervalued and poised for recovery in January. The stock has had 7 insider buys and only 1 insider sale in the last 3 months.
Buy IWM Tuesday to profit from the January effectThe "January effect" is a seasonal phenomenon in which small-cap stocks (especially those trading near their 52-week lows) tend to outperform large cap stocks. IWM, a Russell 2000 ETF, will likely continue to dip until Tuesday as investors sell off their losers at the end of the year for tax and reporting purposes. That makes Tuesday a good time to buy the fund in order to profit from the January effect. In January and February of 2019, the Russell gained about 5% against the S&P. It's relatively cheap vs. the S&P right now, having greatly underperformed for the last 18 or so months.
An Ethereum scenarioPOLONIEX:ETHBTC has been consolidating for a while now and if there is not enough strength we could see something similar to what happened in 2016.
Price structure 2016:
Price structure 2017:
Volume and StochRSI:
2016
2017
RSI
2016
2017
Note: POLONIEX:ETHBTC correlation to alts cycles could have been affected by the high number of ICOs and the ETH collected by all these projects.