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$JPINTR -Japan's Interest Rates (October/2024)ECONOMICS:JPINTR 0.25% October/2024 source: Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) unanimously maintained its key short-term interest rate at around 0.25% during its October meeting, keeping it at the highest level since 2008 and matching market estimates. Thursday's decision came amid shifting political lansdscape following Japan's election and ahead of the US presidential election. In a quarterly outlook, the BoJ held its forecast that core inflation to reach 2.5% in FY 2024, with inflation expected to be around 1.9% for both FY 2025 and FY 2026. Regarding the GDP, the central bank retained its 2024 growth forecast at 0.6%. Additionally, it forecasts growth of 1.1% for FY 2025 and 1.0% for FY 2026.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx
USD/JPY:Bank of Japan's Steady Rates and U.S. GDP Data to Shape The Bank of Japan (BoJ) concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting on Thursday by keeping its short-term interest rate target steady at 0.25%. This decision, while in line with market expectations, sets the stage for potential market volatility, as other global economic indicators could weigh heavily on USD/JPY movement in the coming days. From a technical perspective, price action analysis reveals a notable reversal candle on the daily timeframe, aligning with a pre-identified supply area. This reversal is further supported by the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which indicates that retail traders are largely bullish, while “smart money” or institutional investors appear to be shifting their positions to the bearish side. Seasonal patterns also suggest a possible start of a new bearish trend, adding weight to the likelihood of downward movement. In addition, today’s U.S. Advance GDP data could amplify movements if it underperforms expectations, adding pressure on the USD and further supporting a bearish outlook for the USD/JPY pair. A disappointing GDP print could, therefore, accelerate a drop in the USD, setting up the pair for a potential shift in trend. Traders and analysts alike will be closely monitoring these developments, as Japan’s steady rates, combined with potential U.S. economic softness, set the tone for potential volatility in the days ahead. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
7
Japanese Equities Rebound Post Election ShocksJapan’s October 28 elections delivered a surprise to the market with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)’s loss of the majority in the parliament. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba now faces the challenge of securing a majority in the 465-member Diet, Japan’s national legislature, in the coming weeks. This political uncertainty has impacted the outlook for Japanese equities. Typically, such instability would weaken the equity market; however, a combination of a depreciating Yen and a "buy the news" rebound after two weeks of decline has led to a market recovery, with the Nikkei-225 rising 3.7% since the election results were announced. This environment presents tactical opportunities for savvy investors, such as leveraging spreads between the concentrated large-cap stocks in the Nikkei-225 and the broader Japanese equity market through the AMEX:DFJ ETF. Political Uncertainty a Concern for the Nikkei-225 Japan's October 28 election resulted in no party securing a majority, with the LDP and Komeito losing 64 seats, leading to a hung parliament. This uncertainty has raised concerns over the Nikkei-225, as the lack of a stable government could hinder decisive economic policy. Historically, political instability tends to undermine investor confidence in Japanese equities, and analysts are now concerned about the ability of a weakened government to implement coherent economic policy. Following the result, the Yen dropped to a three-month low of 153.88 per dollar, reflecting investor nervousness. The Nikkei-225 rallied 3.7%, driven by a weaker Yen benefiting exporters like Toyota and Nissan. Analysts expect continued market volatility until a stable coalition is formed, with specific concerns around delayed fiscal measures and economic reforms that could weigh on investor confidence. PM Ishiba’s Hawkish Tone Likely to be Tempered Even in Case of Victory Shigeru Ishiba, recently appointed as Prime Minister, has expressed his intention to remain in office, despite facing a challenging re-election campaign after the disappointing outcome of his snap election. Analysts like David Roche from Quantum Strategy and Masahika Loo from State Street suggest his re-election prospects are slim. PM Ishiba has historically supported the Bank of Japan's rate hike strategy and voiced concerns over yen depreciation. However, in light of the election results, his party may need to adopt a more populist stance to retain support, embracing dovish monetary policies and increased social spending. Additionally, PM Ishiba has pledged to introduce a larger stimulus plan in response to the election outcome. This expanded stimulus could conflict with the BoJ’s monetary policy goals, likely prolonging yen weakness. Weaker Yen Supports Nikkei-225 The weaker yen has been a key driver in Nikkei-225's recent stellar performance. A depreciating yen makes Japanese exports more competitive, directly benefiting major exporters such as Toyota and Nissan, which saw gains of over 4% on 28/Oct (Mon). Mint Finance previously highlighted the inverse relationship between the Yen and the Nikkei-225. Recently, however, this correlation has broken, with both the Nikkei-225 and the Yen declining over the past two weeks. Although post-election performance has brought a modest recovery in this relationship, fundamental concerns persist. With the Bank of Japan holding rates steady, the Yen is expected to weaken further. The outlook for the Nikkei-225 is less clear, as it benefits from a weaker Yen yet faces pressures from ongoing political uncertainty. Key Technical Levels Nikkei-225 is trading just above its long-term moving averages which have acted as support after being tested multiple times over the past few months. With the Nikkei-225 in a rising channel and above a support level, price may have some upside. However, the R1 pivot level at 40,525 may act as resistance as it previously has. Nikkei-225 is currently in a price range dominated by buyers over the past month. Overall volume activity shows buyers have remained dominant according to the accumulation/distribution indicator. In case Nikkei-225 breaks out from this range, it is likely to see increased selling. This could lead to a period of consolidation at present levels, especially given the political uncertainty. Hypothetical Trade Setup Tailwinds from the weakening Yen intertwine with headwinds from the political uncertainty for Nikkei-225. Until clarity on economic outlook arises, the Nikkei-225 is likely to remain volatile. Due to the recent diverging performance, the effectiveness of a Yen hedge on the Nikkei-225 has decreased. While the Yen may continue to weaken, it is not likely to have a proportional impact on strengthening the Nikkei-225. However, a weakening Yen also favours large cap stocks that comprise the Nikkei-225 relative to smaller companies such as those comprising the WisdomTree Japan Smallcap Fund ETF (DFJ), which provides broad exposure to Japan equities. DFJ is geared towards small cap firms and excludes the 300 largest companies by market cap. It also caps the maximum weightage of any single sector to 25% ensuring that the index is not impacted by any single sector. By comparison, the Nikkei-225 index is a price weighted index which tilts its exposure towards expensive stocks, especially those from large companies. It also provides exposure to the technology sector in Japan which has outperformed recently due to the burgeoning chip industry. Mint Finance covered the breakdown of the index in a previous paper . The spread between the Nikkei-225 and DFJ ETF has continued to rise over the past two years alongside the Japanese equity rally, though there have been periods of consolidation in between which small caps have managed to to catch up. The peaks in the ratio have been at times when the Nikkei-225 reached a new all-time-high while periods of consolidation following the peak have favoured the small cap equities. This view benefits investors in case the Nikkei-225 retests its all-time-high in the near future. It also benefits from the fundamental drivers that favour the firms comprising the Nikkei-225 compared to the ETF. Investors can express a view by buiding a long position in Nikkei-225 using CME Group futures and a short position in DFJ ETF. Nikkei-225 Futures on CME are available in a dollar denominated form, which negates currency impact from the weakening Yen. For example, a long position in CME Group Nikkei-225 futures provides exposure to a notional value of USD 197,900 (USD 5 x 39,580 index price as of 30/Oct). This would require an extremely large position on the ETF leg to balance out the notional. Alternatively, investors can utilize the newly launched Micro Nikkei (USD) futures which are 1/10th the size of the standard Nikkei 225 futures contract with a notional value of USD 19,790 (USD 0.5 x 39,580). Micro Nikkei (USD) futures are geared towards smaller notional sizes which allows for granular hedging and spreads as well as enhanced capital efficiency. Since their launch on October 28, the contracts have experienced rapid growth and adoption. Over the past two days, 1,370 Micro Nikkei (USD) contracts and 4,141 Micro Nikkei (JPY) contracts have been traded. The contracts also shows a tight bid-ask spread and a liquid market, supporting capital-efficient trading. The following hypothetical trade setup consists of long 1 x Micro Nikkei (USD) futures expiring in December and short 265 shares of WisdomTree Japan SmallCap Fund with a reward to risk ratio of 1.33x. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:NKD1!Long
by mintdotfinance
Trump Trade & Japan Politics Push USDJPY Higher Trump Trade & Japan Politics Push USDJPY Higher Japan's ruling coalition losing its parliamentary majority in weekend elections is currently weighing on the Japanese yen. Adding momentum to the dollar's strength, long-term U.S. Treasury yields continued their surge, despite the Federal Reserve’s recent 50-basis-point rate cut. Traders perhaps now see little chance of a rate cuts when the Fed meets on November 6, just a day after the U.S. election. Another key factor in the dollar’s rise is what’s being called the “Trump Trade” — a bet on Donald Trump's potential re-election. Should Trump secure victory and the Republicans retain control of Congress, his policies are expected to drive up the U.S. deficit and reignite inflation.
by BlackBull_Markets
USD/JPY: Japan’s Snap Election Opportunities Japan is holding a snap election this Sunday, triggered by a scandal within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), despite a general election not being due until late 2025. The LDP, which has dominated Japanese politics for all but four of the last 65 years, has seen its popularity plummet. In June, its poll numbers hit their lowest point this century. While some polls predict the party could cling to its majority, bolstered by a fragmented opposition, fresh data from the Nikkei suggests a different outcome. The business daily warns that the LDP may fall short of securing a majority, a result that could lead to political upheaval not seen since 2009. Pullbacks in USD/JPY have been lessening since early October, and after clearing the 150.00 mark, the next targets for the bulls may be the 200-Day Moving Average and the range between 150.90 and 151.10. Amid a snap election, 152.00 is also a possible target. If the pair experiences another pullback, traders might consider a mid-point of current price action as a potential resistance level.
by BlackBull_Markets
NKD: Japan Beyond Carry TradeCME: Nikkei 225 USD Futures ( CME:NKD1! ) Tokyo: The Ministry of Internal Affairs reported last Friday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Japan increased 2.5% in September year-on-year, down from 3.0% in August. The CPI excluding fresh food rose 2.4%, down from 2.8%, during the same period. The core inflation measure, which excludes both fresh food and energy costs, rose slightly to 2.1% in September from 2.0% in August. Service prices, considered a crucial indicator by the Bank of Japan (BOJ), gained 1.3% year-on-year, slowing from 1.4% in August. To counter the recent economic slowdown, the Japanese Government rolled out subsidies on electricity and gas prices. These fiscal measures were a major contributor to the cooling inflation, estimated to have shaved 0.55% off the annual inflation rate. The BOJ is widely anticipated to maintain its interest rate at 0.25% during its upcoming policy meeting on October 31st. Despite the dip in inflation, BOJ has signaled that further rate hikes may still be on the table if inflation continues to align with its projections. However, policymakers are cautious following criticism of their July rate hike, which triggered a market downturn. As the US Federal Reserve will have its rate-setting FOMC meeting on November 7th, the all-important interest rate spread between the US and Japan could continue to narrow: • With the Fed Funds at 4.75%-5.00% and the Japanese Interest Rate at 0.25%, the US-Japan interest rate spread is currently at 450 basis points (our calculation takes the lower bound from the US policy rate range) • According to CME Group FedWatch Tool, as of October 20th, the futures market expects a 99.3% chance that the Fed will cut 25 basis points in November. If that happens and the BOJ maintains its current rate, the spread will narrow to 425 bps • If the Fed pushes for a supersized 50bp cut again, same as they did in the last meeting, the interest rate spread could further shrink to 400 bps • Over the course of the next 2-3 years, I expect the Fed to normalize interest rates to 3% or below, to a level not restrictive to economic activity. Meanwhile, the BOJ could maintain the 0.25% rate throughout this period. If that is the case, the US-Japan rate differential could further move towards the 200-250bp range, in my opinion Carry Trade May be a thing of the Past Two years ago, I published a market commentary, “Land of Rising Sun and Falling Yen” on November 7, 2022, and received TradingView Editors’ Picks. In that writing, I discussed Carry Trade, a wildly popular FX strategy. In a nutshell, a trader would borrow Japanese Yen with ultra-low interest rate, exchange the fund into Australian Dollar or US Dollar and earn a higher return. At the end of the investment horizon, the trade would exchange the proceed back to Yen and pay back the loan. The differential between the investing interest rate and loan rate would be the return from this strategy. With 50x to 100x leverage common in FX trade, carry trade could be hugely profitable. Carry trade carries two significant risks. The first is the appreciating yen. The trader may need more dollars to exchange back to yen and pay back the loan. The loss from exchange rate changes could eat up all the interest earning profit. In the last writing, I commented that Yen at 150 may have bottomed out, and explored the idea to take cover for carry trade. Over the following two months, the Yen sharply rose 15% to 127. A trade that earned 3% in interest would have been wiped out completely and may incur huge losses if executed with high leverage. In the present time, we are observing the second risk, a shrinking interest rate spread. Carry trades may have 400-bp interest spread in 2023 and could see the spread narrowing to 200 bps in the next two years. With central banks around the world cutting interest rates, and volatility of exchange rates on the rise, this is probably not a good time for carry trade. The Japanese Stock Market on Focus While the currency play may be out, the Japanese stock market could offer both a good return and diversification for an investor’s portfolio. The Nikkei 225 index is the main stock market index for Japan. At 39,290, its year-to-date return is 17.9% as of last Friday. It is lower than the 22.7% YTD return for S&P 500. However, Nikkei was initially up 27.6% in July. When the BOJ raised rates, the Japanese stock market entered a huge correction, wiping out all the gain. Since then, the Nikkei popped up about 17% in the past six weeks. Japan is the world’s third largest economy with GDP of $4.2 trillion in 2023. Comparing to the other large nations, Japan is more intertwined with the rest of the world. We would explore two trading strategies based on Japan’s unique economic fundamentals. The first aspect: Japan has an export-oriented economy. Its top 3 trading partners are • China: exports were $153 billion in 2021, accounting for 21% of the total ($728 billion) • United States: $137 billion, 19% of the total • The European Union: $97 billion, a 13% share These top 3 partners contribute to 53% of Japan’s exports of goods and services. In essence, economic growth in its trading partners will result in more demand for “Made-in-Japan”, while economic slowdown could spill over to Japan. In my opinion, there is more tail wind than head wind on the way. The US is already in a rate-cutting cycle. Its economy has been resilient during the high-rate environment. The economic health would continue to improve with lower cost of capital. I would also point out that Japan’s export data did not tell the whole story. Most Japanese cars are now made in the US. The data does not show up on Japan’s GDP, but is included in the profit of Toyota, Honda and Nissan. Many of the Japanese car makers are component companies in the Nikkei 225 index. China is implementing massive economic stimulus. Hundreds of business-supportive new rules and trillions of yuan are putting in the economy. I expect China to revive in Q4 and in 2025, which would lead to higher demand for Japanese goods. To summarize, I consider the Nikkei 225 has room to grow. A long position in CME Group’s Nikkei 225 Futures could be deployed to express this view. The second aspect: Japan is a net importer of natural resources • Japan, ranked fifth-highest consumer of oil in the world, relied on imports to meet 97% of its demand in 2022. Japan imports crude oil primarily from Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, and Russia. In 2022, Japan’s crude oil imports increased to 2.5 million barrels per day, up from 2.3 million b/d in 2021. Not only does Japan depend on foreign oil, but it also sources crude oil from regions with heightened geopolitical tensions. If the conflicts in the Middle East escalate further, crude oil production and/or shipping routes could be interrupted. The chart below shows an inverted relationship between Nikkei 225 and WTI crude oil price trends. This suggests that a spread trade could be constructed. For most of 2024, Nikkei moved up as crude oil trended down, except for the BOJ rate hike disrupting the trend. If geopolitical crisis escalated, oil prices could soar while the Nikkei would tank. For someone holding this view, a long position on WTI Crude Oil futures ( NYSE:CL ) and a short position on CME Nikkei futures ($NKD) could be deployed to express such a view. Introducing CME Micro Nikkei USD Futures On October 28th, CME Group will be launching a USD-denominated and Yen-denominated Micro Nikkei futures. The new contract has a notional value of $0.50 times the Nikkei index. At Friday closing price of 39,150, each contract would be worth $19,575. The Micro contract is 1/10th the size of the standard Nikkei futures ($NKD). It will provide a new way to access broad-market Japanese index exposure with greater trading precision and lower capital commitment required. The timing of the new contract launch is critical. It is a week before the US presidential election (November 5th) and ten days before the next FOMC meeting (November 7th). Let’s watch this space to explore the trading opportunities presented by the standard Nikkei futures and Micro Nikkei futures. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:NKD1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
Strong Fund Flow Observed - HeartCore Enterprise Inc.Daily Chart of HeartCore Enterprise Inc. (BUY) Following the robust guidance from HTCR projecting revenue growth between $17 million and $19 million, alongside a significant increase in net income to between $9 million and $11 million, a notable inflow of funds was observed last Friday. This projected growth—representing increases of approximately 263% in revenue and 305% in net income—has captured investor attention, driven largely by HTCR's strong performance in its software business in Japan and its "Go IPO" initiative, which features around 12 companies poised for public offerings. From a technical analysis perspective, HTCR has successfully broken through key resistance levels at $0.98 and $1.00, with the $1.00 level now serving as a support. A golden cross was also observed on the 20/50 moving averages, indicating a bullish trend, which is further corroborated by the strong fund inflows represented by red and pink bars on the chart. Given these promising developments, we maintain a BUY rating on HTCR.
NASDAQ:HTCRLong
by HASHInvests200
Breakout Watch: Trading Nikkei Futures Ahead of Its Micro Launch1. Introduction: Nikkei Futures and Current Market Setup Nikkei Futures (NIY1!) remain a cornerstone of Japan's equity market exposure for traders globally, offering insights and trading opportunities tied to the performance of Japan’s stock market. In recent days, the Nikkei Futures market has entered a phase of tight consolidation, with the trading range narrowing between 39515 and 38785. This setup presents a classic breakout opportunity, with price poised to either break above the upper boundary or fall below the bottom one. Traders should remain vigilant, as a breakout could lead to a market movement in either direction. 2. Contract Specifications: Nikkei Futures vs. Micro Nikkei Futures Nikkei Futures (NIY1!) are a valuable tool for traders seeking exposure to Japan’s economy. The contract size is tied to the Nikkei 225 index, with each tick movement having substantial financial implications for the trader. Here’s a breakdown of the key specifications: o Nikkei Futures (NIY1!): Tick Size: 5 points. Tick Value: 2,500 JPY per tick. Margin: 1,500,000 JPY (varies as market conditions change) Starting October 28, 2024, CME Group will introduce Micro Nikkei Futures, which will provide a more accessible option for retail traders by offering a smaller contract size and lower margin requirements. The Micro Nikkei contracts will allow traders to take advantage of the same market exposure with greater flexibility and reduced capital risk: o Micro Nikkei Futures: Tick Size: 5 points. Tick Value: 250 JPY per tick. Margin: 150,000 JPY (varies as market conditions change) This introduction opens up new opportunities for traders looking to manage risk more effectively or for those who prefer to trade with smaller position sizes. 3. Breakout Trade Setup for Nikkei Futures Currently, Nikkei Futures are stuck in a range-bound market, oscillating between 39515 and 38785. A potential breakout beyond these levels is potentially imminent, and traders can prepare to capture the momentum once it occurs. The key to this setup is patience: wait for the price to either break above or fall below before entering any trades. Here’s the breakout strategy we’ll be focusing on: Breakout to the Upside: Enter a buy trade if price breaks above 39515. Breakout to the Downside: Enter a sell trade if price falls below 38785. By leveraging this breakout strategy, traders can capture the volatility that usually follows a breakout from a tightly held range. 4. Breakout to the Upside: Trade Idea In the event of an upside breakout, we anticipate that the price will rally after breaking through the 39515 level. Here’s the breakdown for this trade setup: Entry: Buy at 39515, the upper boundary of the current range. Target: The target is set at 40285, where there is a significant UFO resistance and a technical resistance level. This level marks a strong area where sellers may come in, making it a logical point to exit the trade and secure profits. Stop Loss: To manage risk, place the stop loss a third of the profit zone below the entry price. In this case, the stop would be at 39258, minimizing downside exposure while allowing the trade to develop. o Risk/Reward Calculation: Profit zone: 40285 - 39515 = 770 points. Risk (1/3 of the profit zone): 770 / 3 = 257 points. Stop loss: 39515 - 257 = 39258. For standard Nikkei Futures, each point is worth 500 JPY, so: Potential profit: 770 points × 500 JPY = 385,000 JPY (approx. USD 2,580). Risk: 257 points × 500 JPY = 128,500 JPY (approx. USD 860). For the Micro Nikkei Futures, everything would be reduced x10 (approx. USD 258 and USD 86). 5. Breakout to the Downside: Trade Idea In the case of a downside breakout, we expect a decline once the 38785 level is breached. Here’s how the trade setup would work: Entry: Sell at 38785, the lower boundary of the current range. Target: Set the target at 37920, a level supported by a UFO support, a technical support, and two nested Fibonacci retracement levels (23.6% and 61.8%). Stop Loss: The stop loss is set at a third of the profit zone above the entry price. This protects against excessive losses if the market moves against the trade. The stop would be at 39073. For standard Nikkei Futures: Potential profit: 865 points × 500 JPY = 432,500 JPY (approx. USD 2,910). Risk: 288 points × 500 JPY = 144,000 JPY (approx. USD 970). For the Micro Nikkei Futures, everything would be reduced x10 (approx. USD 291 and USD 97). 6. Risk Management Effective risk management is key to long-term success in trading. In both breakout scenarios, the use of stop-loss orders ensures that traders can limit their losses if the market moves against them. Additionally, setting precise entry and exit points reduces the likelihood of emotional decision-making, allowing for more disciplined trading. The upcoming launch of Micro Nikkei Futures offers traders enhanced control over their position sizing and risk exposure. With smaller contracts, traders can engage in these setups with a fraction of the capital required for standard futures contracts. This flexibility is particularly beneficial for retail traders looking to manage risk effectively while still capitalizing on market opportunities. Whether you are a seasoned futures trader or new to the Nikkei market, these breakout setups provide a solid foundation for capturing momentum. As always, risk management should remain at the forefront of your strategy, ensuring you protect your capital while pursuing profits. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:NIY1!
by traddictiv
$JPIRYY -Japan's CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 2.5% (September/2024) source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications - The annual inflation rate in Japan fell to 2.5% in September 2024 from 3.0% in the prior month, marking the lowest reading since April. Electricity prices increased the least in three months as the impact of energy subsidy removal in May waned (15.2% vs. 26.2% in August), and the cost of gas rose much more slowly (7.7% vs. 11.1%). Moreover, costs moderated for food (3.4% vs. 3.6%), furniture & household utensils (4.8% vs. 5.2%), transport (0.1% vs. 0.2%), and culture (4.3% vs. 4.8%). Additionally, prices fell further for communication (-2.6% vs. -2.4%) and education (-1.0% vs. -1.0%). On the other hand, inflation remained unchanged for housing (0.7%) and healthcare (1.5%), while edging higher for clothes (2.4% vs. 2.3%) and miscellaneous (0.9% vs. 0.8%). Meanwhile, the core inflation rate hit a five-month low of 2.4%, down from August's 2.8%, compared with the consensus of 2.3%. On a monthly basis, the CPI declined by 0.3%, pointing to the first drop since February 2023.
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
HeartCore Announces Preliminary Third Quarter 2024 ResultsQ3 2024 Revenues Expected to Increase to Between $17 Million and $19 Million Q3 2024 Net Income Expected to Increase to Between $9 Million and $11 Million NEW YORK and TOKYO, Oct. 18, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- HeartCore Enterprises, Inc. (Nasdaq: HTCR) (“HeartCore” or “the Company”), a leading enterprise software and data consulting services company based in Tokyo, announced select preliminary financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2024. These results are preliminary and unaudited, and are subject to all aspects of the final quarterly review process and may change as a result of new information that arises, or new determinations that are made, in this process. Based on preliminary unaudited results, the Company expects revenues for the third quarter of 2024 to be between $17 million and $19 million, representing an increase of between 263% and 305%, compared to $4.7 million in the same quarter last year. Revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 are expected to be between $26 million and $28 million, representing an increase of between 40% and 51%, compared to $18.5 million for the same period last year. Net income is expected to be between $9 million and $11 million for the third quarter of 2024, compared to a net loss of $2.5 million in the same period last year. Net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 is expected to be between $5 million and $7 million, compared to a net loss of $1.8 million in the same period last year. HeartCore’s “Software Related Business” and “Go IPO Business” include the following revenue streams: Software Related Business Revenues from on-premise software Revenues from maintenance and support services Revenues from software as a service (“SaaS”) Revenues from software development and other miscellaneous services Revenues from customized software development and services Go IPO Business “I am pleased to announce robust preliminary results for this past third quarter, the strongest quarter in HeartCore’s history,” said the Company CEO Sumitaka Kanno. “This significant increase is primarily due to the recent public listing of our Go IPO client, SBC Medical Group Holdings Incorporated (“SBC”). The Company is expected to report approximately $12 to $14 million in revenues from warrants issued by SBC for our IPO consulting services. This Go IPO deal is the biggest achievement since the business’ inception and underscores the immense value our consulting business presents. Additionally, we have an incremental three Go IPO deals that are slated to close over the next several months, and with an optimistic outlook on the U.S. IPO market for Japanese companies, we look forward to the completion of these deals that are set to further strengthen our financial results. We also shifted toward proposing multi-year software licensing agreements to our customers starting in 2024, and these agreements corresponded to increased revenues in our Software Related Business. 2024 is set to be the strongest year in HeartCore history, and we remain committed to retaining this upward trend for future quarters and years ahead. We look forward to providing the full details of our third quarter 2024 financial results in mid-November.”
NASDAQ:HTCRLong
by HASHInvests200
BloomZ Inc. (NASDAQ: BLMZ) has been making some interesting moveNew Anime Project: BloomZ has been chosen as the main animation studio for the upcoming anime "Kakushite! Makina-san!", which is set to air in 2025. They've snagged some cool rights too, like international distribution and merch, which could really boost their revenue. Partnerships in the Works: They're teaming up with CrossVision Inc. and sonilude Inc. to combine tech and sound expertise for their anime and VTuber projects. This means they’re bringing Web 3.0 tech and killer sound to their work—definitely something to watch. Big Investment: They’ve also secured up to USD 30 million in investment from White Lion Capital, giving them a solid boost to fund future projects and growth. What’s your thought on this company?
NASDAQ:BLMZLong
by HASHInvests200
USD/JPY Remains Strong as JPY Struggles for Upside The USD/JPY pair continued its upward trend on Tuesday, maintaining strength despite limited upside potential for the Japanese Yen (JPY). The JPY's inability to gain ground is largely attributed to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) rate-hike plans. Coupled with a generally positive risk tone in the markets, this has kept the JPY, traditionally seen as a safe-haven currency, from making any meaningful gains. US Data and Market Outlook Tuesday’s economic calendar for the US is relatively quiet, with no major data releases expected. However, the spotlight will turn to Thursday’s key economic reports, which include the USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims. These reports are expected to inject more volatility into the market and could influence the trajectory of the US Dollar and other major currency pairs, including USD/JPY. Given the strength of the USD near its two-month peak, the upcoming data could further support the dollar, limiting any potential upside for the lower-yielding JPY. The US Dollar's resilience continues to exert pressure on the JPY, keeping the pair on a bullish path. Technical Outlook: USD/JPY Targeting 152.000 From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair appears poised to extend its rally, with a potential target around the 152.000 level. This area could be reached following the release of the key US economic reports on Thursday, which may provide the necessary momentum for further gains. The technical outlook is supported by the broader strength of the USD and the lack of strong upside drivers for the JPY. The chart of JPY futures also reflects the challenging environment for the Yen, signaling continued weakness. Chart Overview: JPY Futures Chart As shown in the chart, the JPY remains under pressure in the futures market, further confirming our outlook for continued USD/JPY strength. Strategy: Patience is Key After successfully closing our previous USD/JPY trade in profit, we are now waiting for a more favorable area to enter a new position. With key economic data on the horizon, patience remains essential as we await clearer signals from the market. In conclusion, the USD/JPY pair is likely to maintain its bullish trend in the near term, with a potential target of 152.000. The combination of US Dollar strength and uncertainty surrounding the BoJ’s rate policy should keep the Yen on the defensive, at least until there are clearer indications of future central bank actions. For now, we remain on the sidelines, waiting for the next opportunity to re-enter the market. PREVIOUS CLOSED POSITION: ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
Technical Review - HeartCore Enterprise Inc. (14/10/2024)Upon breaking the key resistance of $0.80, a strong buying interest can be observed for HeartCore Enterprise Inc. (NASDAQ: HTCR). The money flow indicator (MCDX) also indicates strong institutional buying interest as shown in the red bar, with the current trailing price is trending well above EMA levels. We expect a continuous uptrend for HTCR ahead to challenge key resistance level of $1.00 over the mid term, which is our next TP. We remain positive and rated the company a Trading BUY at its current level.
NASDAQ:HTCRLong
by HASHInvests200
(Shared) HTCR is a Compelling Investment Opportunity in NasdaqHeartCore Enterprises, Inc. (HTCR) has positioned itself as a leader in the enterprise software and digital transformation space, making it an intriguing target for investors seeking exposure to innovative technology and growing markets. Listed on the NASDAQ, HeartCore is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan, and has diversified its business model to provide a range of Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) solutions, data analytics, and digital transformation services, along with a unique consulting service for assisting Japanese companies in listing on U.S. stock exchanges. Our investment thesis for HTCR is as below. Dominance in the Japanese CMS Market. HTCR’s Content Management System (CMS) platform has been the top-ranked solution in Japan for nine consecutive years, holding a 15.1% market share according to ITR Corporation. This leadership is a testament to HTCR ability to deliver innovative and reliable solutions, with over 700 Japanese companies using its CMS platform. Strategic Acquisitions Bolster U.S. Expansion. The previous acquisition of Sigmaways and Sabatini Global has expanded HTCR footprint into the U.S. market, creating new avenues for growth. These acquisitions have allowed the company to integrate advanced AI and software engineering capabilities into its offerings, enhancing its competitiveness and enabling it to penetrate new markets. Go IPO Business Segment. A unique aspect of HTCR business is its Go IPO service, which helps Japanese companies navigate the process of listing on U.S. stock exchanges. As of 2024, HeartCore has secured 14 clients for its Go IPO services, with four of these successfully completing their listings on Nasdaq (According to a research note by Lighthouse Research) This consulting business has generated substantial revenue, contributing 28% to HTCR’s 2023 revenue. It also offers an opportunity for HeartCore to build strong relationships with companies that may require ongoing digital solutions, fostering long-term partnerships and cross-selling opportunities. Focus on AI and Digital Transformation. HTCR’s AI software development division, launched in collaboration with its subsidiary Sigmaways, is another promising growth vector. This division focuses on developing AI-based solutions that cater to evolving client needs, such as predictive analytics, robotic process automation (RPA), and enhanced customer engagement strategies. As the global customer experience management market is projected to grow at a 15.2% CAGR, reaching $47.8 billion by 2032, HeartCore is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend. Financial Overview. HTCR’s revenue mix has evolved significantly, with its software business now contributing 60% to overall revenue, and the remaining 40% coming from consulting services like Go IPO. Despite challenges in its consulting segment in early 2024, the company is projected to recover in the latter half of the year, driven by gross proceeds from warrant sales and a strong push for new customer acquisitions in its software business. The company has also shown prudent financial management with a focus on cost efficiency, achieving profitable quarters within its software division. With a clean balance sheet and additional capital inflows expected from ongoing IPO consulting deals, HeartCore is well-positioned to pursue further acquisitions, expand its product offerings, and reinforce its market presence. Investment Outlook HTCR offers a compelling investment opportunity for those seeking exposure to a company that is actively growing in the digital transformation space, supported by a diversified revenue model and strategic U.S. expansion. With its market leadership in Japan, robust AI initiatives, and potential for further growth through strategic acquisitions, HeartCore stands poised to deliver value to its shareholders. The company’s strong customer base, combined with its innovative Go IPO services, makes HTCR a stock worth considering for long-term growth potential amidst the evolving tech landscape.
NASDAQ:HTCRLong
by HASHInvests200
NIKKEI to continue hold back the bulls?NIK225 - 24h expiry We are trading at overbought extremes. This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Previous resistance located at 40008. Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. We look to Sell at 39998 (stop at 40551) Our profit targets will be 38457 and 37705 Resistance: 42155 / 45325 / 46980 Support: 37705 / 36330 / 34955 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed. Update idea
OANDA:JP225USDShort
by OANDA
NASDAQ: HTCR | Technical Review 07/10/2024​Supported by their strong profit forecast, we are starting to see investors building up position in Heartcore Enterprise Inc. (NASDAQ: HTCR) despite huge profit taking activity was seen in last Friday. Nevertheless, HTCR's share price was strongly supported around its current level, with the expectation to hold around $0.750 for the remaining of the week. We deem this as a Trading BUY opportunity for those who have not built any position on hand for HTCR.
NASDAQ:HTCRLong
by HASHInvests200
GBPJPY H4 - Short Signal GBPJPY H4 For those that watched the market analysis and live charting video, you would have seen us discuss GBPJPY and the 195 psychological price/sell zone. We have since seen this zone tested and subsequently rejected. How much mileage this setup has... I don't know, but if we can break 194.500, we should see a send lower. A break and candle close around or below 194.500 is important, breaking this H4 and H1 consolidation, EUR and LON session could certainly be enough to drive this setup where is needs to go.
Short
by Trade_Simple_FX
1
JASMY jasmy "wedge view"This is the wedge view for Jasmy based on 100 day and 50 day past moving averages trajectory leading up to Nov 1st 2024. The range anyway. This does not mean the price is subject to necessary stay within the boundaries of the purple lines drawn as much as the projected outcome for the price in a variable sense according to today from the indicator I use. Obviously, BTC movement seems to always impact the rest of exchange traded cryptocurrency tokens or coins so when the price of BTC fell so did everything else. Seems like a cop out for the price of cryptocurrency trends to always fallowe BTC necessarily considering how indicators should in some ways tell a different story for different cryptocurrency.
COINBASE:JASMYUSD
by CryptocurrencyBlot
4
USD/JPY Poised for Gains as DXY StrengthensThe US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its upward momentum as Treasury yields recover from recent losses, bolstering the Greenback’s strength. However, this rally may soon face headwinds, with growing market expectations of additional rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2024. Traders are now focusing on the upcoming US Flash Manufacturing PMI, which is due for release within the hour. The PMI data will offer a fresh perspective on the health of the US manufacturing sector, and any surprise in the numbers could influence the Greenback’s near-term trajectory. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to show a slight improvement, reflecting stabilizing economic conditions, but traders remain alert for any deviations from the forecast. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 50% probability that the Fed could reduce rates by as much as 75 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.0-4.25% by the end of the year. This potential easing has kept some investors cautious, as it could curb the USD’s long-term gains. From a technical standpoint, we are seeing a key opportunity in the USD/JPY pair, which has rebounded from a strong demand area. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that retail traders are still heavily short on the USD/JPY, while institutional "smart money" appears to be shifting its stance, reducing its bearish exposure. This setup aligns with our previous analysis, where we highlighted the potential for a long position as the pair regains upward momentum. As the USD/JPY continues to rebound from this demand zone, the conditions remain favorable for a long trade. The shift in sentiment among institutional traders, combined with the recovery in Treasury yields and the strength of the DXY, supports the case for further upside. However, traders should remain cautious as the Fed’s rate cut expectations may still influence broader USD sentiment in the months ahead. For now, the focus remains on the US PMI release and its impact on both Treasury yields and the USD. Should the data come in stronger than expected, it could provide additional fuel for the DXY’s rally, further reinforcing the bullish outlook for USD/JPY. Conversely, weaker-than-expected PMI data could reignite concerns about the Fed’s dovish outlook, potentially pausing the Greenback's current rally. We continue to monitor the situation closely, with a bullish setup in USD/JPY remaining a key focus in the near term. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
Bitcoin Falls Marking the Worst 'Uptober' in Nearly a DecadeMarket Update - October 4th 2024 Takeaways Bitcoin fell following the news of Iran’s retaliation on Israel, and the election of Japan’s new prime minister: The decline comes after a recent rally spurred by the Federal Reserve's rate cut. Net inflows into global crypto funds reached $1.2 billion last week, marking their largest increase in 10 weeks: US-based spot bitcoin ETFs contributed $1.1 billion in these inflows, while Ethereum products ended a five-week streak of outflows by adding $87 million. Changpeng Zhao, founder of Binance, was released from prison after completing a four-month sentence for failing to establish money laundering controls: Zhao paid a $50 million personal fine and is no longer allowed to hold executive positions at the company. Ohio State Senator Niraj Antani introduced a bill that would require all political subdivisions in Ohio to accept cryptocurrency payments for state and local taxes: The proposal also allows state universities and pension funds to invest in cryptocurrencies, positioning Ohio at the forefront of crypto adoption. More than 94% of FTX's Dotcom creditors voted in favor of a reorganization proposal: The proposal would see 98% of creditors receiving at least 118% of their claim value. 🥩 Topic of the Week: How Can I Make Returns or Rewards on My Crypto? 🫱 Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
JPY Faces Further Downside as DXY Surges on Powell's RemarksThe US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen sharply, nearing the 101.00 level, in response to recent comments made by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell’s remarks signaled that while the Fed remains cautious about future rate cuts, any adjustments would be gradual, contributing to the strengthening of the US Dollar. This move has had ripple effects across currency pairs, most notably with the Japanese Yen (JPY), which has begun a reversal from a key supply area that was identified in our analysis last week. The price action of the JPY has played out as anticipated, with the pair hitting our first take profit target. The reversal came as the US Dollar gained momentum, pushing the Yen lower. You can view the previous analysis that accurately predicted this movement in the following idea: As we look ahead to the upcoming trading sessions, a potential for further bearish momentum in the JPY is on the horizon. The next significant catalysts for the market will be today’s release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings data from the US. Should these reports come in stronger than expected, it could fuel another bullish impulse for the US Dollar, potentially driving the DXY higher and triggering further downside for the Yen. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a critical indicator of the health of the US manufacturing sector, and positive results would signal continued economic expansion, lending further strength to the Dollar. The JOLTS Job Openings data, which provides insight into labor market conditions, will also be closely watched. A strong labor market reading would add to the case for the Fed to take a measured approach to rate cuts, reinforcing the current bullish sentiment surrounding the USD. Given these dynamics, traders should remain alert for the possibility of a fresh bearish wave in the JPY, especially if the US economic data reinforces the current narrative of USD strength. The technical setup from last week’s supply area continues to offer a solid framework for managing positions, with further take profit levels within reach should the bearish trend in the Yen persist. In conclusion, the DXY’s rise near 101.00, supported by Powell’s comments, has already triggered a significant move in the JPY, and the upcoming ISM and JOLTS data could provide additional fuel for further bearish action. Traders should keep an eye on key levels and be prepared for another bearish impulse in the JPY if the USD continues its upward march. ✅ Please share your thoughts about JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
CME:6J1!Short
by FOREXN1
1
JAPAN as a HERO? UP! GOKU Last Fight! JAPAN is the last one to join the party! The final fight for the #BlowoffTop. Why is this so important? If you look at correlations with BTC, global liquidity, China, the Fed’s interest rates, and more, Japan plays a key role. After China, Japan is the next to wake up and give the final push to this Bull Market. The last time the Nikkei dropped more than 25% was during the COVID crash. What happened next? It rallied 26% in the first 52 days and extended its Bull Market to over 88% from the bottom. With the current Carry Trade crisis (still unresolved), the TVC:NI225 has dropped more than 25% again, and guess what? It’s up 26% in the first 52 days... History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. It’s feeling like 2017 all over again... What do you think? 🚀📈
TVC:NI225Long
by PickleBiit