NI225 NIKKEI 225 25-7-11Japan stocks remind me the most of this time in 1975, which marked a bottom. It’s not identical at all. Just the closest I could compare it to. It’s at all time highs and after a year or so of consolidation. The thing is now looks even better for a textbook W reversal up now. It’s a striking pattern really you can clearly see it. I wouldn’t be surprised if it makes more spikes back down though also before resuming an upward trend.
Japan
The Chart Says ''Cheer Up Japan'' – JPY Looks Safe📊🇯🇵 The Chart Says "Cheer Up Japan" – JPY Looks Safe 💙✨
There’s been talk, worry, even viral prophecy this week… but I’m here to say:
I read charts — not fear.
And right now, the JPY is showing strength, not weakness.
After running a full scan with my AI-powered Precision Master Mode, the cleanest trade setup aligned with this view is:
AUDJPY SHORT 📉
🗾 Cheer up, Japan — the Yen’s got this.
No panic in the charts. Just structure, volume, and momentum confirming that JPY is holding its ground as a safe-haven currency.
🔍 TRADE SETUP – AUDJPY SHORT
ENTRY: Market (or 94.85 for better R:R)
STOP LOSS: 95.70 (above trap high)
TARGETS:
TP1: 93.50
TP2: 91.57
TP3: 87.84 (macro target)
📈 What the chart shows:
– Strong rejection from top channel zone (structure is King!)
– SuperTrend flip starting on multiple TFs
– VWRSI fading = momentum loss
– Volume Profile confirms resistance
So while the headlines play on emotions, my execution comes from structure.
Let’s ride this JPY strength into next week — calmly, confidently.
📸 Chart attached (8H view – AI tuned)
📰 Article on the 'prophecy' that sparked the buzz:
www.telegraphindia.com
Have a nice weekend Japan and all Asia! After a 'scary prophecy' troubling your minds the weekend can end up being a crazy happy one!
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
Is Japan's Economic Future at a Tariff Crossroads?The Nikkei 225, Japan's benchmark stock index, stands at a critical juncture, facing significant pressure from potential US tariffs of up to 35% on Japanese imports. This assertive stance by US President Donald Trump has already triggered a notable decline in Japanese equities, with the Nikkei 225 experiencing a 1.1% drop and the broader Topix Index falling 0.6% on Wednesday, marking consecutive days of losses. This immediate market reaction, characterized by a broad-based selloff across all sectors, underscores profound investor concern and a pre-emptive pricing-in of negative outcomes, particularly for the highly vulnerable automotive and agricultural sectors.
The looming July 9 deadline for a trade agreement is pivotal, with President Trump explicitly stating his intention not to extend the current tariff pause. These proposed tariffs would far exceed previous rates, adding substantial financial burdens to industries already facing existing levies. Japan's economy, already struggling with a recent contraction in GDP and persistent declines in real wages, is particularly susceptible to such external shocks. This pre-existing economic fragility implies that the tariffs could amplify existing weaknesses, pushing the nation closer to recession and intensifying domestic discontent.
Beyond immediate trade concerns, Washington appears to be leveraging the tariff threat to compel allies like Japan to increase military spending, aiming for 5% of GDP amidst rising geopolitical tensions. This demand strains the "ironclad" US-Japan military alliance, as evidenced by diplomatic setbacks and Japan's internal political challenges in meeting such ambitious defense targets. The unpredictable nature of US trade policy, coupled with these geopolitical undercurrents, creates a complex environment where Japan's economic stability and strategic autonomy are simultaneously challenged, necessitating significant strategic adjustments in its international relationships.
Nikkei 225 stays bullish as Japan embraces AIWhile most traders have been focused on AI's impact on Western economies, Japan has been quietly chipping away at its own AI revolution. Not by building the flashiest tools, but by embedding AI into the guts of its economy.
Let's start with the obvious. Japan is an industrial giant. Toyota, Fanuc, Sony. These companies aren’t chasing fads. They’re integrating AI into factories, supply chains, and robotics. Not hype but rather real productivity.
The government gets it too. “Society 5.0” isn’t just a slogan. It’s a structural policy push. R&D spending is north of 3% of GDP. That’s capital well spent.
Now the deeper point, demographics. Japan’s working-age population is shrinking. That’s no longer a headwind. It’s fuel. AI offsets labour shortages. Healthcare, logistics, transport. These sectors are being rewired, not disrupted. They’re evolving, and profits will follow.
Then there’s valuation. The Nikkei 225 is still attractive with a forward P/E of around 14x, while the S&P trades above 22x. Yet Japanese firms are global leaders in high-value, AI-relevant sectors. That gap will close.
This is structural, it’s not about today’s trade. It’s about where capital flows over the next five years.
Japan’s quiet, calculated AI pivot is the most underpriced transformation in global markets.
Stay long Nikkei, we expect the 200-day moving average to hold. The re-rating is only beginning.
The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.
$JPIRYY -Japan CPI (May/2025)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
May/2025
source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
- Japan's annual inflation rate edged down to 3.5% in May 2025 from 3.6% in the previous two months, marking the lowest level since November.
Price growth eased for clothing (2.6% vs 2.7% in April), household items (3.6% vs 4.1%), and healthcare (2.0% vs 2.2%), while education costs fell further (-5.6%). In contrast, inflation held steady for transport (2.7%) and miscellaneous items (1.3%), but accelerated for housing (1.1% vs 1.0%), recreation (3.0% vs 2.7%), and communications (1.9% vs 1.1%).
Meanwhile, prices of electricity (11.3% vs 13.5%) and gas (5.4% vs 4.4%) remained elevated.
On the food side, prices increased by 6.5%, staying at the slowest pace in four months, though rice prices soared over 100%, underscoring the limited impact of government efforts to rein in staple food costs.
Meanwhile, the core inflation accelerated to 3.7% from 3.5% in April, reaching its highest level in over two years, ahead of the summer election.
Monthly, the CPI rose 0.3%, after a 0.1% gain in April.
$JPINTR -Japan Interest Rates (June/2025)ECONOMICS:JPINTR
(June/2025)
source: Bank of Japan
- The Bank of Japan kept its key short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.5% during its June meeting, maintaining the highest level since 2008 and aligning with market expectations.
The unanimous decision underscored the central bank’s cautious stance amid escalating geopolitical risks and lingering uncertainty over U.S. tariff policies, both of which continue to pose threats to global economic growth.
Tokyo and Washington agreed to extend trade talks after failing to achieve a breakthrough during discussions on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Canada. Meanwhile, as part of its gradual policy normalization, the BoJ reaffirmed its plan to cut Japanese government bond purchases by JPY 400 billion each quarter through March 2026.
Starting April 2026, it will then slow the reduction to JPY 200 billion per quarter through March 2027, targeting a monthly purchase level of around JPY 2 trillion—signaling a measured but steady path away from ultra-loose monetary policy.
USDJPY 1W forecast until September 2025A huge inverted Head&Shoulders has been started. Volatility chop-chop. Left shoulder is ready and the price is heading up to the base at 145.188
In the middle of June we will see a fast fall to print Head bottoming at 138.75
Before printing Right shoulder the price has to visit the base again in the beginning of August 2025
What will happen in September? I will keep posting and updating (if I see necessity) 1W chart here. For 1D weekly updates check 'Also on' in my Profile.
USDJPY 1W tf forecast until August 2025 Current midterm bias is bullish. 150,64 and 142,78 are extreme levels to be respected by the price action. One more week of red week of sideways movement will actually form a reversal pattern followed by a strong upward spike. A powerful breakout to 148,27 is to be retested at 145,34 - healthy retest. July will show an organic growth topping at 149.66 in the beginning of August 2025
(jasmy) jasmy "array"I can't share my indicator ideas unless I publish them publicly. I don't feel like sharing my indicators with the public is necessary so I guess I will not be publishing many new ideas because the Trading View website is removing features where unpublished custom indicators are allowed to be included in sharing. Trading View is too strict and they keep choking the freedoms of watchlist, now indicators, what's next to be taken away from users of the website?
Japan : Q1 2025 GDP Revision: Milder ContractionFinal data for Q1 2025 shows that Japan's economy contracted by 0.2% year-on-year (YoY), better than the initial estimate of -0.7%
(Sources: english.kyodonews.net, reuters.com, fxstreet.com).
Growth in household consumption and an increase in inventory levels were the main drivers, although the export sector remained a drag due to U.S. tariff pressures.
On a quarterly basis (QoQ), the economy recorded flat growth (0.0%), exceeding expectations of a -0.2% contraction
(Sources: reuters.com, fxstreet.com).
In summary: The revision shows that Japan’s economy is not as weak as initially feared, though it still reflects underlying sluggish conditions.
NIKKEI 1W forecast until end of July 2025Broadening wedge formation on the table - a lot of sideways movement within the range of 38,758 and 36,607
Upward momentum will last for a couple of weeks more. The most likely top is 38,758
Starting from second half of June 2025 we may see a start of correction strong, but healthy. Correction/rest bottom is expected in mid July at 37,075 and should not fall deeper than 36,607
Second half of July the index would probably try to climb up to 58,758 with doubtful success.
GBPJPY: Weekly overview + Significant zonesHello dear traders,
The indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones.
These points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray.
After reacting to the following zones, you can enter the trade. Place the stop loss slightly above/below the zone to which the reaction was shown. The profit point is the next zone.
The drawn channels and their medians can also be considered as moving support and resistance. I usually use them as target points. I've doubled the short-term channel because it was so thin ;-).
* I don't use 189.663 zone to take short! There are too many moving S&R around it.
This analysis is valid until the end of the week.
**************************************
Important news that could change the direction of the trade:
Wed: Great Britain CPI of April.
$JPIRYY -Japan's CPI (April/2025)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 3.6%
April/2025
source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
- Japan's annual inflation rate stood at 3.6% in April 2025,
unchanged from March while remaining at its lowest print since December.
Food prices rose the least in four months (6.5% vs 7.4% in March) even as rice costs jumped 94.8% y-o-y, hitting a new record for the 7th straight month due to poor harvests and rising demand from record tourist numbers.
Price growth also eased for clothing (2.7% vs 3.0%) and household items (4.1% vs 4.5%).
Cost of education fell much steeper (-5.6% vs -1.2%).
In contrast, inflation was stable for transport (at 2.7%) while accelerating for housing (1.0% vs 0.8%), healthcare (2.2% vs 2.0%), recreation (2.7% vs 2.0%), communications (1.1% vs 1.0%), and miscellaneous items (1.3% vs 1.1%).
Prices of electricity (13.5% vs 8.7% ) and gas (4.4% vs 2.4%) rose the most in three months, as the impact of government subsidies faded.
Core inflation climbed to an over 2-year high of 3.5% from 3.2% in March.
Monthly, the CPI rose 0.1%, easing from a 0.3% gain in March.
apan’s Bond Market Is Flashing Alarms – Carry Trade at Risk?🚨 Japan just witnessed its weakest 20-Year Government Bond auction since 1987, triggering a spike in long-dated yields:
📉 Bid-to-cover ratio at lowest since 2012
📉 Tail (spread between avg. & lowest accepted bid) was massive
📈 40Y JGB yield hit all-time highs
📈 30Y at highest since it was introduced in 1999
📈 20Y at highest level since 2000
This is a BIBLICAL move in the JGB complex.
📌 The implications?
Japan’s carry trade—a pillar of global liquidity—could be under pressure
Global bond markets may reprioritize risk
BoJ is walking a tightrope: intervene now or risk a credit crunch later?
$JPGDBQQ -Japan's GDP Shrinks More than Expected (Q1/2025)$JPGDBQQ
Q1/2025
source: Cabinet Office, Japan
- Japan's GDP shrank 0.2% qoq in Q1 of 2025, compared with forecasts of a 0.1% fall and after a 0.6% growth in Q4, flash data showed.
It was the first GDP contraction in a year, amid worries over the impact of US trade policy under President Donald Trump.
On an annualized basis, the economy contracted 0.7%, worse than consensus of a 0.2% drop and a reversal from an upwardly revised 2.4% gain in Q4.
Are you shorting the bounce or waiting for confirmation?Japan’s Q1 GDP came in worse than expected: -0.2% QoQ (-0.7% annualized). Weak consumption, soft exports, and a fading external boost despite a weak yen isn't a great combo for Asia’s largest export economy.
The Nikkei 225 reacted immediately, and the H4 chart is starting to reflect deeper structural pressure.
🔍 Technical Outlook:
- Price reversed from the high of 38,745.
- Price is testing the 50 SMA and could enter the Ichimoku cloud.
- The cloud is signalling a twist, which could be a sign of momentum fading and the trend weakening or reversing.
📊 Projection:
If the price closes below the 50 SMA and breaks through the cloud, further downside could be expected, with the target levels at
- 36,800 (last consolidation zone), and
- 35,570 (38.2% fibonacci retracement level and 200 SMA).
Alternatively, if the bulls defend the cloud, we could see the price climb to the resistance level of 40,500
This is a classic macro meets technicals moment. A weak data print is lining up against the possibility of a technical rollover.
JAPAN IS DOOMED!It's been 30 years since the Central Bank of Japan has maintained ECONOMICS:JPINTR near or even below 0% - WTF!
In combination with weak (or negative) GDP growth rates in the same period, the Japanese Government seems to be in a debt death spiral which will likely come to an end soon. See ECONOMICS:JPGDP and ECONOMICS:JPGDG
Default is inevitable!
$JPINTR -BoJ Holds Rates but Cuts GDP Growth Outlook (May/2025)ECONOMICS:JPINTR
May/2025
source: Bank of Japan
-The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its key short-term interest rate at 0.5% during its May meeting, in line with expectations.
The unanimous decision came amid growing concerns over the impact of U.S. tariffs.
In its quarterly outlook, the BoJ slashed its FY 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5%, from January’s estimate of 1.0%.
The growth outlook for FY 2026 was also lowered to 0.7% from the prior forecast of 1.0%.
Haven play: Long yen back in focusAmid growing uncertainty surrounding U.S. equities and the US dollar, investors could be returning to a traditional defensive strategy: going long on the Japanese yen.
While some analysts believe the recent yen rally is not yet overstretched, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has noted that Japan’s central bank is likely to push back the timing of further interest rate hikes, a factor that could limit the yen's potential to strengthen further. As such, we are looking at the support level of 140.00 and the bearish-yen sentiment seen today, and the potential resistance at 144.80.
Up next: a scheduled meeting between Japan’s Finance Minister Kato and U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent later this week.
(JASMY) jasmy "sectioned macd - wave phase"As seen between the purple lines are the phases of the MACD with no overlap between each of the purple lines. The final bottom phase(5) was reached at which point the price rose to an astonishing 75%. Not sure if these purple lines will be of much use from here on out. I may delete them at some point.
(JASMY) jasmy "cycle-phase-wave"According to an enhanced MACD indicator that follows three layers of information I found the peak MACD green to line up with the yellow lines on the chart that are assigned with the next alternative colored line to be aligned with the most recent improvement in the otherwise losing price for the last months of time. Although an elliott wave is not seen I figured it would be possible to create a measurement like wave using an indicator to guide where those points should be.
NIKKEI Long From A Massive Support! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
NIKKEI stock index has
Lost almost 27% from the ATH
Which means it is clearly oversold
And the index is about to retest
A massive horizontal support level
Of 30,000 which is a great spot
For going long on the index
And even if the support gets
Broken I would still hold the
Position expecting a rebound
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
BULLISH RSI DIVERGENCE ON NINTENDO? SWITCH 2 RELEASE DATE BELOW!Nintendo (NTDOY), the Kyoto based home entertainment company known for games like Mario, recently announced the release date of its new video game console: the Nintendo Switch 2. According to Nintendo they hope to have the system released by June 5th 2025 for customers. A bullish divergence has formed on the 1 hour chart. Will this provide investors with a bullish opportunity, or will Trump Tariff's keep this stock's costs from rising?
Disclaimer: Not financial advice.