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Japan

JPY - CENTRAL BANK ANALYSISObjective: Outlined in the Bank of Japan Act 1942, the purpose of the BoJ is to issue bank notes and to carry out currency and monetary control. The Act defines monetary control through achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy.As of 2013, the BoJ has defined price stability as a 2% year-on-year rate of change in CPI. As of February, Nationwide inflation in Japan stands at -0.4%; although Tokyo CPI for March printed at -0.2%. The BoJ have failed to reach their inflation target since inflation plummeted to 0.6% from 2.3% in April 2015. Since then, Japan's highest reading was 1.5% in February 2018. Situation: At their March meeting, the BoJ kept the Policy Rate unchanged at -0.10% and maintained the long-term yield target at 0%; although, they did raise the target band for yields, allowing yields to now fluctuate by +/-25bps from target. Governor Kuroda added, he does not this it is impossible to deepen negative rates and the steps taken will allow the BoJ more flexibility to deepen negative rates.
by thunderpips
JPY - WEAK BEARISHAs a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor, especially in the current environment given the ongoing coronavirus outbreak and global economic slowdown. The market's overall risk tone is cautiously improving with coronavirus vaccines in the very early stages of being rolled out in several countries. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight second waves of the virus. Nevertheless, as a whole, the outlook is tentatively improving. Given the tentatively improving risk outlook, we expect safe-haven demand to gradually diminish in the months ahead, resulting in a weak bearish fundamental outlook.
by thunderpips
13
JPY: Current Sentiment DriversLatest developments: March 19 – BoJ kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.10% and the 10 year yield target unchanged at 0%. However, the central bank did raise the target band for yields, allowing them to fluctuate by +/-25bps from target. March 18 – National CPI for February printed at -0.4% Y/Y for both the headline and core measure, compared to -0.6% for both measures in January. February 14 – Preliminary GDP for Q4 printed at 3.0% Q/Q and 127% Q/Q Annualised, compared to 5.3% and 22.9% prior, respectively. Future Sentiment Shifts: JPY notably strengthened throughout the coronavirus pandemic as markets remained firmly risk off to the benefit of safe havens. Although market sell offs have long since subsided, significant risks still remain as many notable countries continue to fight second waves. The coronavirus global economic outlook will remain heavily influential to JPY, with the currency likely to once again see a renewed bid from the rising number of second waves and their implications for the global economy. Primary Drivers: Risk Tone – With a consistently positive current account and incredibly low interest rates in Japan, JPY has become synonymous with the term safe haven. As the world’s leading creditor nation, times of uncertainty results in repatriation flows, supporting JPY. At the same time, as investors often use JPY as a funding currency due to Japan’s low interest rates, investors are often forced to buy JPY to close their risky positions when market’s shift to risk off, further supporting the currency.
by thunderpips
JPY - WEAK BEARISHAs a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor, especially in the current environment given the ongoing coronavirus outbreak and global economic slowdown. The market's overall risk tone is cautiously improving with coronavirus vaccines in the very early stages of being rolled out in several countries. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight second waves of the virus. Nevertheless, as a whole, the outlook is tentatively improving. Given the tentatively improving risk outlook, we expect safe-haven demand to gradually diminish in the months ahead, resulting in a weak bearish fundamental outlook.
by thunderpips
4
Suez Canal FiascoWe've all heard about the big ass ship stuck in Egypt's Suez Canal last week. On Tuesday morning (3/23) the 'Ever-Given' vessel, leased by Taiwanese Company EVERGREEN; was caught up in a 'Darude-like' sandstorm causing over 10 billion in damages so far and unforetold shipping delays. The Suez accounts for 30% of imports coming into Europe from Asia. There are currently 150+ container ships caught in this costly traffic jam, where the estimated costs of waiting are upwards of $400Million/hour according to various news sources. Looking for ways to capitalize on News events? If you have access to Asian markets; take some shorts on lease owner EVERGREEN 2603. They had positive reported earning on Monday just one day before the shitstorm and there's a definite shift in momentum back to 30-lvl support. Also consider short positions in the vessel owner; Japanese Shoei Kisen KK. UK P&I Club Insurance is meant to cover pollution and injury, not cover hundreds of lawsuits for this costly conundrum.. Let's get it! static01.nyt.com
TWSE:2603Short
by BonaFide111
1
5 things you need to know about BOJ's Monetary Policy Meeting1. Yields: Continued to peg 10-year JGB yield at "around zero", but widened the trading bond of 10-year JGB to plus minus 0.25% 2. Purchase of ETF: Ditched its 6 trillion yen guide for annual purchases of ETF , however, it will continue to buy equities as necessary with upper limits of about 12 trillion yen. 3. Interest Scheme to Promote Lending: Established the scheme as an incentive to financial institutions' currenc account balances. The applied interest rates will be linked to the short-term policy interest rate. 4. Short-term policy interest rate: Applied a negative interest rate of minus 0.1 percent to the Policy-Rate Balances 5. Inflation-overshooting commitment: The Bank commited to cotinuing to expand the monetary base until the YOY increase of CPI exceeds the price stability target of 2 percent. MM Analysis The NI225 dropped by almost 1.5% followed by the BOJ's announcement of scraping the ¥6tn guideline and widending the trading bond of 10-year JGB. While we believe, the BOJ's recents move attempted to conduct the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy more flexibily, keep an eye on the inflation!
TVC:JP10Y
by MacroMicro_Global
BA Breakout Price Targets with potential breakdown levelsIf Boeing can stay away from bad news and regain the ascending channel , it should continue to test the top-side of the above channel as resistance . My thoughts are that potential breakdowns may occur after a failure to test the top-side resistance of the ascending channel . Or after its 3rd test of the top-side resistance of the channel . With good news and Japan continuing to buy equities rather than debt , I don't see it being out of the question for BA to break that top-side trendline resistance and reach the previous all-time-high trend demand zone into the mid $290s
NYSE:BA
by rickhubbard10
1
ridethepig | Opportunities in Hydrogen stocks📌 Another single stock opportunity... I will start posting a lot more of these as the feedback has shown it is working. For today we are tracking a very interesting flow that is finally coming into fruition. Australia, Japan are advancing talks on hydrogen and a deal is around the corner. The breakout of the highs shows flexibility required and is an example of how to look at the important aspects rather than political noise. Momentum players here wish to play down an extension of the range, they wish to create for themselves an advance with reason and presence from the PM visit to Japan to make it a celebration. Another 75% is necessary, despite the fact we are already up big. Buyers should continue to find the courage to resist taking profits and quietly continue loading. The target of 1.50 is possible here . Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍or 👎
ASX:HZRLong
by ridethepig
5
USDJPY quickly recoversThe US dollar has recovered higher against the Japanese yen currency back above the 103.00 level, following another short-lived drop towards the 102.70 area. Technical analysis shows that the USDJPY pair is still trapped inside a large falling wedge pattern. Traders that are bullish towards the pair will be encouraged if bulls continue to hold the price above the bottom of the wedge, around the 102.30 level. The USDJPY pair is only bullish while trading above the 104.50 level, key resistance is found at the 104.90 and 105.50 levels. The USDJPY pair is only bearish while trading below the 104.50 level, key support is found at the 102.70 and 102.30 levels.
by K41L3Y
1
The CAD/JPY surrenders to the stability of the resistance The CADJPY pair attempted to form some correctional bullish trades recently, while the stability of 81.05 resistance blocks the bullish attempts and reinforces the chances of renewing the negative attempts. Note that it is important to gather the additional negative momentum to manage to crawl below 80.50 level and open the way to record the main negative targets by reaching 80.05 and 79.60 levels. With Risk Management you will Never loss. thank you
Short
by Ridethemacro