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ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 18.12.2020📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Market Commentary 18.12.2020 What was the point in BOJ meeting overnight? Finally extensions of the handouts coming from the Japanese base, and remarkably the 103.0x was rescued via lack of conviction from macro players to chase it lower. Buyers now can play the break, undoing their opponents work and imagine the test of 105 as being important for the yearly close flows. This iteration of dollar strength will be most visible in GBPUSD and USDJPY - choppy conditions seem appropriate. Here we are tracking this rather technical move. I am looking firstly for a move towards 105 resistance, followed by a zag to fade back towards 103.5x which is a 300 tick round trip. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
1
Green Light on NInja/ Massive Short On CADJPYIn a recent conversation I had with a colleague, we discussed the resurgence of the Japanese currency. The strength of Japan, in the long-term rally, relies on its expansion of credit. This colludes with he fact of the already low rates for the country. Following from recent weeks, the sell off of corporate bonds for Japan is a striking message of growth towards attractiveness as long term investors see a potential for higher yields.
Short
by Amadiwochi
Post-election breakdown of DOLLAR-YEN[Target 100]A short post, with few important points: With record low interest rates globally, the carry trade with the short-side in yen is somewhat losing its popularity. Some of the reasons why are: => The carry premium isn't worth the risk any longer. Lately currency markets have been quite volatile, question is whether this will continue. If we get a somewhat more stable environment in developed markets, carry sharks might look elsewhere for the following reasons... => Record low rates globally, even further squeezing the positive carry spread, however now that all the key rates globally are at the ZLB (prospects even to go below it), the importance of inflation is ever more accentuated. Why'd you even enter a long carry with a short side in yen given the inflation differential, with Japan potentially going into a deflationary environment? => Lastly, we're in a new paradigm where it's questionable how long would it take for emerging markets to recover from the virus, and the grading of their government bonds is starting to become questionable. There are other points of course, but principally Biden after all might get a weaker dollar after all, thanks to MMT. On one side, too little stimulus implies a potential credit crunch/crisis, and too much stimulus= devaluation. Obviously, devaluation is without any doubts the better choice. The rest is summarized by the chart. -Step_ahead_ofthemarket ________________________________________________________________________________________ >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well-informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details , every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated! Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content- contact me through any of my social media channels.
Short
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
The TRADE-OFF Between a Descending Triangle and Falling WedgeThere are a few ways to chart this. You could see this as a descending triangle, where the bottoms are relatively stable with decreasing tops. A very bearish formation. You could also consider this as a falling wedge, a much more bullish pattern where you see a faster decline in the tops than in the bottoms, but the bottoms are still declining. I personally find the bottoms too stable to consider this a bullish pattern and I am preparing for the scenario that the price breaks through the support and breaks down hard. In the end, what matters most in trading is risk reward ratio and win percentage. We can see here on USD/JPY some great indicators of a bearish price continuation. However, in itself that is not enough. I suggest to maximize the risk reward ratio by waiting for the price to be closer to the top resistance line before entering with a trade. This will allow you to get a better RRR. In this trade set-up you can see from the chart how I created a 4 RRR trade idea. Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
Short
by Trading-Guru
6
USD/JPY Maximize Your Risk-Reward With This Simple Trick!In the end, what matters most in trading is risk reward ratio and win percentage. We can see here on USD/JPY some great indicators of a bearish price continuation. However, in itself that is not enough. I suggest to maximize the risk reward ratio by waiting for the price to be closer to the top resistance line before entering with a trade. This will allow you to get a better RRR. In this trade set-up you can see from the chart how I created a 4 RRR trade idea. Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
Short
by Trading-Guru
5
Don't Trade USD/JPY Before You Looked at These Factors!Trading is all about buying low and selling high. Here on this USD/JPY technical analysis I will explain what you need to take into account if you want to enter a trade. First of all, I want to highlight the previous idea that was incredibly successful on USD/JPY using these same principles: In this idea it is important to note that the price is not near any horizontal zone at the moment. I suggest to wait to get a better risk reward on your coming trade. The buy low and sell principle is all relative and defined by the current information available. I define low and high as the horizontal resistance zones. For our short position we want to reverse the logic and sell as high as we can, in this case near the zone of horizontal resistance. Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
Short
by Trading-Guru
5