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USDJPY Sideways Because it Likes Less Steep SupportWhile the Japanese yen had been trading on an upward short-term support line, last week it broke this line. Interestingly enough though, it found another level of support similar to the previous level of support, but just with a bit of a less steep slope. Clearly there is much evidence to suggest that the Japanese yen should be taking a nosedive. Compelling evidence for the contrary as well. But if we are just looking at short-term movement, its clear that for the moment USDJPY prefers a more sideways move as opposed to a strictly long or short move.
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
USDJPY Short Because Technicals Flash Overbought, Yen Safe HavenUSDJPY has a number of trends going against it to force price action downwards. Technicals and fundamentals are not on the dollar's side against the yen. Traders can see a number of oscillators and MAs suggesting USDJPY is overbought and due for a reversal. Moreover and probably more impactful are the fundamentals of the global economy which suggest major growth centers (Europe and China) are slowing down. US treasury yields suggest we are heading towards a recession and US GDP growth is probably going to be less than previous quarter for the second quarter in a row. Because of this, the yen will be heavily invested into which will partially be a result of institutional hedging, partially Japanese capital flows returning to Japan. While the dollar will also benefit from this, it will probably not benefit as much as the yen in the short term since the US economy is still strong and many in the US still want to be exposed to risk-on assets like equity markets. In spite of this, sentiment indicators suggest the yen is set for a bullish move, but this can quickly reverse. You can find that data here www.dailyfx.com and you can find more analysis of currencies and indexes here www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
Short
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
The price returned to test the medium term key supportThe price returned to test. The price returned to test the medium term key support at 123.8. If it were violated to the downside with closure below it would be a strongly bearish scenario. This would immediately lead it to the next static support at 122.6. Within a couple of sessions then could try to break it down. The pair could reach the next support area at 118 in a week. If, on the other hand, this level, where is the price now, resisted, a very short uptrend will follow up to the static resistance set at 125.7. Most plausible scenario Given the macroeconomic situation that is causing markets and investors worry, it is very likely that shortly we will be able to see a retracement of the main indices. This shifting investors to Japan’s currency. The scenario that is taking shape in the European currency also weighs heavily. The ECB’s stagnant economic and monetary policy is weakening the euro. The currency will continue to depreciate throughout 2019.
Short
by BFCMInvest
USDJPY Drops Because The World Is Freaking OutThere are a number of fundamental components that caused USDJPY to collapse on late Friday trading at the end of the North American session. Traders became spooked by the yield curve inversion which tends to be a sign of an impending recession. Traders were also not very happy with dovish Fed speak earlier in the week, chaos around Brexit, and no respite from the global economic growth slowdown ((you can read more about all these issues here: www.linkedin.com On Friday,; it also became apparent that German growth is significantly affected by the US-China trade war contributing to its slowdown with German PMI data coming in at 44 when 47 was expected. Speaking of the US-China trade war, the US sanctioned two Chinese companies for their dealings with North Korea in the vain US attempt to fight both the North Koreans on nuclear issues and the Chinese on trade at the same time. This will definitely complicated trade matters. The point is, all of this is freaking out global investors who then poured money into the Japanese yen as it is traditionally viewed as a safe haven currency and moreover is also a popular starting point for the carry trade given that interest rates are so low in that country. However, the flight to safety complicates this with increased foreign exchange risk given the overall trend of strengthening. Nonethless, expect this flight to safety trade to continue in the long-term (several months to a year) while in the very short-term (a day to a week) we could see a bit of a pullback given the RSI indicator flashing oversold and the bear bull indicator suggesting USDJPY short is overcrowded.
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Not a Fan of that Resistance or PerformanceWhile there is much room to go before we hit resistance, I am really not a huge fan of this overall lackluster performance. Keep in mind, the BoJ owns upwards of 80 percent of the entire Japanese ETF market. 80 percent. Let that sink in. Also, export data is weak in an economy where exports make up 18 percent of GDP. If we gain five percent from today, nobody will be happier than me as my overall macro view will gladly change. I can sleep at night being wrong on five percent. But really though what could possibly lead to that given the last three months where some Asian markets like the Shanghai Composite would gain 5 percent in a single day while Japan is asleep? Just not convinced. More fundy and technical analysis on Asian markets as they move today here: anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
INDEX:NKYShort
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
NINJA - an evaluationFUNDAMENTALS: JPY: - Rates remained the same in Japan, doubt they'll change anytime soon. - ageing population, shrinking AD in the economy. - Slow wage growth, however Abe has introduced a minimum wage to combat low levels of AD, but a weakening JPY will make it difficult for consumers to spend abroad - Which is good as the BOP will correct itself (X-M) - we're currently in a Balance of payments deficit in Japan. (Q418). - The elephant in the room: DEBT! Japan has the one of the highest levels of debt amongst developed countries at 236% of GDP in 2017. This in partnership with a trade deficit is extremely mischievous, the need for "Abenomics" is crucial lol. - China is Japan's biggest trade partner - as is lots of countries such as AUD, NZD. China saw a slip in growth Q418 at 6.4% down from 6.6% in Q318. China is a source of AD, low AD results in less demand for the JPY. USD: - Rates are staying the same. - middle aged population, still has a lot of work left in them lol. - Protectionism from Trump has promoted domestic productivity at the expense of Chinese AD. Unemployment rate down from 4% to 3.8% thanks to Trump. - Modest levels of inflation at 1.5% down from 1.6% - FED: balance sheet correction. Hence they have confidence in the economy to sort itself out, therefore rates remaining the same. TECHNICALS: JPY: -Fibb 50% level is being tested. -upward daily trend -currently bouncing zone on the monthly (bullish) -targets 114+ extended targets @118 -currently collecting buys on the daily and lower USD: -DXY is about to break out of its weekly bullish channel -DXY has rejected 97.50 resistance, next support area is 96.0 -However DXY: consistent higher lows have been made. Indicating a potential bullish break of range in the foreseeable future. However: -Daily candle has closed outside of the uptrend channel. Hence some downside could be felt toward the 110 area before further elevations to 114 and beyond.
by LouisSugunaFX
USDJPY Very Bullish on Monthly ChartHere we can see the zoomed out macro map for the flows in usdjpy. If you are a believer in the bullish USD story and see this as an ABC corrective leg, after completing a multi decade 5 wave sequence. Timing wise we have the seasonality flows to Yen as we approach the end of the fiscal year. Although the name of the game is to park in dollar so these are expected to be short lived. Similar in nature to the temporary bounce we are seeing in Gold. I have also attached the Dollar chart "Long term uptrend is clear as day" ... everything is aligning for this leg in dollar across the board. The story ties in with the 1.05 target in EURUSD. Lets see how it plays out, best of luck to those on the dollar side.
Long
by ridethepig
1
USD/JPY current open long position. (Back with a bang!?)I have decided to return and begin posting my market outlooks on TradingView, to establish both my name and brand. Please ensure you follow my page for upcoming market breakdowns of the 9 currency pairs I trade. To start off, here is USD/JPY. Following my usual analysis pattern I first established my bias across the higher time frames. On the monthly time frame, although the candle has yet to close, we can see a strong wick rejection of both 105.200 - 107.500. Thinking logically, we saw these vast wicks form on the 1st of January, possibly to bring price down to a level where the "big cats" has inserted there buy orders? a form of market manipulation perhaps? you decide. Moving onto the weekly time frame, price has been rapidly descending since its rejecting of strong support at 114.000. A trade I managed to profit from on a few occasions. However, with this in mind price seems to be running out of steam from its current bear run with last weeks candle closing as a doji following a heavy candle fuelled with plenty of bearish momentum. Shifting down onto the daily time frame we can see this descent from 114.000 more clearly. It is apparent that price had little to no pullback throughout its collapse and recently has put in signs that it is over-extended to the downside and its in need of a greater pullback to the upside if it is to continue its descent. 10th of January's daily candle seemed to have formed a higher low after rejecting what could of been a strong bearish candle. Is this the initial signs of a break of the bearish trend? We have also established a daily trading range between 107.500 and 109.000 which was used as resistance previously. On the hourly time frame, we have two areas of interest. First a level at 108.200 which has been reacting as both support and resistance on multiple occasions during prices daily range. The second area of interest sits at 108.043. Although price sits below 108.200, it has just placed 5 consecutive wick rejection off 108.043 and rejected the potential to make new lows... To me this suggests signs of a shift in the overall trend following our higher time frame confluences. I have therefore entered long, targeting the daily range resistance at 109.000. However, we have yet to see a clear break above the hourly 50ema and 108.200 so this trade has been entered using half the risk I would usually use with the vision to scale in after a clear break above both levels. Please do not use my analysis as finical gospel but instead alongside your own ideas!
by NickLindleyFx
USD/JPY Potential pullback and bull run?USD/JPY is a pair I have been sat on the sidelines with for some time. It just hasn't offered the trading set-ups I look for. However, that looks to change this week if price forms this pullback i am expecting. Starting from the higher time frames, price formed a very strong wick rejection of 105.200 before almost reaching back to its monthly opening price. This shows a clear rejection of price making further lows. If we see a monthly close anywhere near its current price level it will form an almost perfect higher low indicating a shift in the trend after prices sharp decline from 114.000. This descent from 114.000 can be seen much clearer on the weekly time frame, with price consistently and strongly collapsing across 4 weeks. Even if price was to continue its decline, I believe it would be in need of a strong pullback for further short orders to be met. However, this daily set-up has arisen and I currently favour short term longs. On the daily time frame, we failed to close below 107.500 following a daily bearish trend consisting of lower highs followed by lower lows. Price looked to form a further lower high and potential penetrate 107.500 but instead the bulls ruled to momentum and bearish trend structure was broken. Price now sits within a 90 pip daily range between 109.000 & 109.900. Personally, I am watching price and looking for a slight pullback and retest of 109.000. If this is fulfilled with strong bullish candlestick confirmation, this will be the area I look to long from. My initial target sitting at 109.900 and if broken, 110.500 fulfilling a 150 pip move. There are fundamentals that support this idea but I will not get into these on TradingView.
by NickLindleyFx
MAJOR update on USD/JPYMacroeconomic side The price in the last sessions is continuing to maintain this lateral / bullish trend without giving too many signs of inversion, supported by a recovering dollar. This week will be essential to understand the short-term trend that will follow both the dollar and the yen: in fact, tomorrow the Fed chairman will make a conference, from which investors expect him to keep his very short-term decision unchanged (do not force the market and the US economy with further monetary restrictions). On the other hand, on Thursday, the Japanese GDP data will be published, expected positive and clearly improved compared to previous ones: this should strengthen the Japanese currency against the other majors. The technical side Technically there is a very strong resistance area between 110.70 and 110.90: the main EMAs (daily, weekly and monthly time frames) pass in here and the 110.90 should not be violated on the upside due to the macro-economic factors just mentioned. If this happens it is because the short-term trend has become long and the target area will become the one between 113 and 115 Join us for further analysis on: Instagram : www.instagram.com Telegram: t.me Facebook Page: www.facebook.com Web: www.bfcminvest.com
Short
by BFCMInvest