USD/JPY as BOJ rate decision approaches The US federal Reserve is not the only major central bank making an interest rate decision this week. So too, will the nonconformist Bank of Japan (BOJ).
In its April policy meeting, the BOJ highlighted upside risks to inflation and indicated readiness to adjust monetary policy, if necessary, although it expects to maintain its current policy for the time being.
The BOJ stated that if the outlook for economic activity and price rises materializes, interest rate hikes could be warranted. Key economic reports from Japan prior to this week's interest rate decision include:
Japan GDP Growth Rate (final)
Japan Economy Watchers Survey Outlook
Japan Producer Price Inflation
For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.
From the daily chart, the USD/JPY perhaps appears slightly bullish. The pair has climbed above the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating strong buyer momentum.
On Tuesday last week, BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino expressed concerns about the negative impact of a weak yen on the economy. His comments suggest that the BOJ might be preparing for another intervention in the forex markets to support the yen, which would be negative for the USD/JPY pair.
The 14-day RSI has recently pulled back, avoiding overbought conditions.
Japan
(JASMY) jasmyThe volume value of Jasmy right now is actually not so high that it is worrying. Surely there will be days when the price of crypto is like a weekend from work or even times when people get speculative. The three larger values of volume in comparison to the price lines on the graph itself. Where will the price go from here?
(JASMY) jasmyCurrent view of the indicator I'm working on while still missing the main point of what I've been trying to do. The dotted lines show a measured point on the graph and is not drawn. The small dotted lines cover three distances of 50, 100, 150 into the past and up to the current timenow. Not exactly what I've been trying to do to make an indicator.
(JASMY) Jasmy Using auto fib set to 50 and auto retracement set to 75 Jasmy made a leap from the flat black all the way up to the next level of black. A good positional movement moment right now with strong levels.
Intotheblock.com states; 79% of holders are in the money right now, 8% of holders are from the last month, 15% of buyers are from large transactions.
$TM 220 - 240 - 25O AFTER EARNINGS ?NYSE:TM 220 - 240 - 25O AFTER EARNINGS ?
6 REASONS !!
Strong Quarterly Earnings: Toyota has shown strong financial performance in the recent past, with its profit in the latest quarter jumping nearly threefold from a year ago as vehicle sales grew globally. This indicates a strong demand for Toyota's vehicles and the company's ability to capitalize on this demand, which could positively impact its stock price.
Increased Net Profit Forecast: Toyota ramped up its annual net profit forecast to $26.1 billion after reporting it more than doubled in the first six months of the year. This indicates the company's confidence in its future performance, which could boost investor confidence and drive up the stock price.
Record High Stock Price: Toyota's shares hit a record high after reporting strong earnings and raising its fiscal-year earnings forecast. This shows that the market responds positively to
Toyota's financial performance, and further strong earnings could lead to a higher stock price.
Year-on-Year Earnings Growth: Despite a recent decline in earnings quarter-on-quarter, Toyota's earnings are up +97% year-on-year. This indicates a strong recovery and growth trajectory, which could lead to a higher stock price in the future.
Positive Market Sentiment: The market's response to Toyota's earnings reports has generally been positive, with the stock price rising after strong earnings reports. This suggests that if Toyota continues to report strong earnings, the market could respond positively, potentially pushing the stock price towards $250.
Dividend Yield: Toyota pays an annual dividend of $5.10 per share and currently has a dividend yield of 2.38%. This could attract investors looking for stable returns, potentially driving up the stock price.
NiKKEi the Empire who saw Tomorrow 100 years ago
the OG in quantitative zero cost coupons and negative rates
with subways in the 1930s
touchscreens ai robotics in the 70s
and rise of gaming in the 80s
still is a decade ahead among developed countries
and 100 years++ ahead the rest of the emerging economies
sell 154.92 and tp 152.10 with stop loss at 156.2..rr 2.5i sell it coz even when dollars down he not down and so many ti_me BOj talk about to intervene.
i think they will do soon and if not a big pullback have to happens
u can put ur stop lost at 155.6 if u want a bertter RR but i scare about a big leg up
BOJ Intervention Again⁉️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
EUJPY is currently approaching a massive supply zone marked in red.
For the bears to take over again and start the next bearish impulse movement, a break below the last major low in gray is needed.
Meanwhile, EURJPY would be bullish short-term and can still trade higher.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
NIKKEI Is it worth buying here?Nikkei (NI225) is about to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time as a Resistance, following the bearish break-out on April 15, which was its first breach since November 02 2023. This is a very consistent behavioral pattern with both of the previous two corrections of the 2-year Channel Up pattern.
As you can see, reclaiming the 1D MA50 wasn't enough for either correction to make the index resume the uptrend, even closing above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level didn't guarantee it. What did form the index' bottom however, was the 1D RSI touching the 30.00 oversold limit (green circle).
At the moment the index is rebounding off such an RSI test. This means that this time we may see the recovery much earlier, so once we close a 1D candle above the 1D MA50, we will turn bullish again, targeting 46000 (Channel's top and below the minimum +31.73% of Bullish Legs patterns).
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TOYOTA 254 TP AFTER EARNINGS !! Toyota’s Earnings Report Highlights
Third-Quarter Fiscal 2024 Performance:
On February 6th, 2024, Toyota Motor Corporation reported its third-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings.
The company posted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.81, significantly surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.66.
Toyota’s consolidated revenues for the quarter were $81.5 billion, beating analyst estimates of $73.7 billion.
Investment Strategy and Hybrid Vehicles:
Toyota’s strategy of focusing on hybrid vehicles rather than electric vehicles (EVs) has paid off.
While many automakers are heavily investing in EVs, Toyota’s commitment to hybrid technology has resonated with consumers and investors.
Sales Volume and Operating Income:
A year-over-year improvement in sales volume likely bolstered Toyota’s results in the third quarter.
However, operating income in China declined due to fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and increased selling expenses.
Market Confidence and Future Outlook
Toyota’s strong financial performance, innovative approach, and consistent growth have instilled confidence in investors. As the automotive industry continues to evolve, Toyota’s hybrid focus positions it well for the future.
Nikkei to form a higher low?JP225YJPY - 24h expiry
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
Short term bias is mildly bullish.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
The hourly chart technicals suggests further upside before the downtrend returns.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 37830 level.
We look to Buy at 37830 (stop at 37530)
Our profit targets will be 38580 and 38680
Resistance: 38570 / 41135 / 42120
Support: 36990 / 35705 / 34425
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Silent Samurai: Why Japan Keeps Mum on the Yen's Fate f JapanThe Japanese Yen has been on a rollercoaster ride recently, weakening against the US dollar. This has sparked concerns in Japan, but the government has remained tight-lipped on whether they've intervened to prop up the currency. This silence, some argue, is a strategic necessity in the face of a more dominant player: the US Federal Reserve.
Traditionally, governments use currency intervention – buying or selling their own currency – to influence exchange rates. A weaker yen can benefit Japanese exporters by making their goods cheaper overseas. However, a rapidly depreciating yen can also lead to inflation, hurting Japanese consumers.
So, why the silence from Japan? Here are some key reasons:
• The Power of the Fed: The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions have a massive impact on global currency markets. When the Fed raises interest rates, it strengthens the dollar as investors seek higher returns in US assets. This, in turn, weakens currencies like the yen. Japan's silence could be a way to acknowledge this reality. Publicly admitting intervention against the Fed's tightening stance might be seen as futile or even provocative.
• Preserving Intervention Ammunition: Currency intervention is expensive. It depletes a country's foreign reserves and can be ineffective in the long run if underlying economic conditions don't improve. By staying silent, Japan might be trying to keep the markets guessing about potential intervention. This uncertainty itself can sometimes deter speculators from further weakening the yen, achieving some effect without actually spending reserves.
• Signaling Commitment to Market Forces: Openly intervening can be seen as a lack of confidence in a market-driven exchange rate system. Japan might be prioritizing long-term economic stability by allowing the yen to find its natural level based on market forces, even if it's uncomfortable in the short term.
• Focus on Broader Economic Policy: The yen's weakness is just one piece of a complex economic puzzle. Japan's government might be prioritizing other measures to stimulate the economy, such as fiscal spending or structural reforms. Addressing these underlying issues could have a more lasting impact on the currency than short-term intervention.
However, the silence isn't without its critics. Some argue that a lack of transparency undermines market confidence. Additionally, if the yen weakens excessively, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might be forced into raising interest rates, contradicting its current ultra-loose monetary policy. This could create unwelcome economic disruptions.
What's Next for the Yen?
The future of the yen hinges on several factors, including:
• The Fed's Path: The pace and extent of the Fed's interest rate hikes will significantly influence the dollar-yen exchange rate. If the Fed slows down its tightening, the pressure on the yen could ease.
• Japan's Economic Performance: A stronger Japanese economy with signs of inflation could naturally lead to a yen appreciation.
• Intervention Decisions: While Japan might remain tight-lipped, any covert intervention could impact the market.
The coming months will be crucial for the yen. The silence from Japanese authorities might be a calculated strategy, but its effectiveness remains to be seen. Only time will tell if Japan can navigate these choppy currency waters and achieve a stable yen without sacrificing its broader economic goals.
JASMY (JASMY)Arrays, Moving Average and High label makes same view. This kind of looks like an on chart DMI in a way. roughtdraft indicator progress...
the lines are getting are bunched together now.
I see jasmy as the freedom to protect ideas, ideas in business, ideas in one's own personal life, an anti-communist statement of freedom.
$JPINTR - Interest Rates MoMECONOMICS:JPINTR -0.1% November/2023
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key short-term interest rate at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% in a final meeting of the year by unanimous vote, as widely expected.
The central bank also left unchanged a loose upper band of 1.0% set for the long-term government bond yield.
The board said that it will patiently continue with monetary easing amid extremely high uncertainties at home and abroad.
It also mentioned that policymakers will respond to development in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions.
By doing so, the BoJ aims to achieve a price stability target of 2% in a sustainable manner,
accompanied by wage increases. The committee reiterated that it will not hesitate to take extra easing measures if needed.
source: Bank of Japan
Update from the BoJ decision todaySince January 2023, the USDJPY has been on an astronomic rise, driven by the significant divergence between FOMC and BoJ monetary policies.
The initial market expectation was for the BoJ to intervene when the USDJPY approaches the 155 price level.
Today the Yen has come under fresh selling pressure, as the BoJ kept rates on hold, taking the USDJPY above 156.
Could 158 at the top of the channel be the next target intervention level?
From the BoJ today
Kept rates on Hold
No comments about an intervention
Yen continues to weaken with USDJPY climbing above 156
Jasmy (JASMY) Drawing on the charts, nothing else to it than that.
Glassy, Grassy, Miami, ascii, chassis, tallahassee.
...
For some reason the circles always shift whenever I try to use them as a published idea. Trading View should fix that. The circles should line up with the highs of each section.
...
sassy, classy, grammy.
Some words that rhyme with Jasmy.
...
Let's ignore those that refer to anger or violence.
Macro Monday 43 - Japan Composite PMI Macro Monday 43
Japan Composite PMI – Japan’s Business Activity
(Flash PMI is released Tuesday 23rd April 2024)
Unfortunately, I had great difficulty in locating the Japan Composite Flash PMI in chart form on TradingView (it appears to not be available).
Instead we will briefly cover the Japan Composite PMI chart which is the final PMI released later on Tuesday 7th May 2024 (for April). We can review the Flash PMI figures that are released tomorrow regardless for an indication. The flash consists of about 90% of the final PMI input thus is a good forward view on how the final PMI will come in on the 7th May 2024.
Over the past three weeks we have covered the following three indicators for Japan:
1.Macro Monday 41 - Japan Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
🚨 Pessimistic but with an improving long term trend. A positive ranging move from 28.6 in Nov 2022 to 39.5 in April 2024. This is the highest reading in c. 5 years, a significant milestone and trend higher. A move above 40.86 would signify a move above the historical average level of consumer sentiment (less pessimistic, as only above 50 it optimistic).
2. Macro Monday 42 - Japan Reuters Tankan Index (RTI)
✅ Business Optimism is high with the Japan Reuters Tankan Index standing at +9, down from the previous month's 10 however firmly in the positive (above zero).
3. Macro Monday 43 - Japan Composite PMI
✅ THIS WEEK we take a quick look at the Japan Composite PMI which is firmly in the positive at 51.7 (above 50 is expansionary and below 50 is contractionary).
As you can see from the chart below we have been in an uptrend since Nov 2023
The Japan Composite PMI for March 2024 was 51.7, indicating continued expansion in private sector activity (businesses). This matches the optimistic business sentiment in the Japan Reuters Tankan Index. This marked the third consecutive month of growth and the strongest pace since late September in PMI. The service sector saw solid expansion, while the decline in manufacturing production softened slightly. New orders accelerated to a seven-month peak, primarily led by the service economy. Employment growth was the steepest since May 2023, and there was a marginal rise in outstanding business. Input prices expanded robustly, leading businesses to increase their selling prices at the most pronounced rate for seven months. Overall, the PMI provides insight into the health of Japan’s private sector economy
The overview of the past three weeks we covered and what they broadly tell us? 👇🏻
Japan Businesses are in expansion and optimistic whilst the Japanese Consumer remains reserved
In contrast to the positive Business Sentiment and Business Activity in Japan, the Japanese consumer is not as optimistic and appears to be trailing business behind sentiment(RTI) and activity (PMI). The Japan Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) came in at 39.5 for March. Whilst this was the highest reading in 5 years for the Japan CCI and demonstrated a trending recovery from lows of 28.6 in Nov 2022, the Japan CCI remains below its historical average level of 40.86. Despite a sizable recovery since Nov 2022, the current 39.5 suggests the Japanese Consumer is still more pessimistic than the historical average.
Whats the Japan PMI made up of?
The Japan Composite PMI is a weighted average of several key components that provide insight into the health of the private sector economy.
Here are the main components :
New Orders (30%): Measures the volume of new orders received by businesses. An increase in new orders suggests growing demand and potential future production.
Output (25%): Reflects the level of production or business activity. Higher output indicates expansion, while lower output signals contraction.
Employment (20%): Tracks changes in employment levels. A rising employment index indicates job creation and economic growth.
Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%): Monitors the time it takes for suppliers to deliver goods or services. Longer delivery times may indicate supply chain disruptions.
Stocks of Purchases (10%): Measures inventory levels. An increase in stocks suggests businesses are building up inventories, while a decrease may indicate reduced demand.
The above components collectively provide a comprehensive view of economic conditions in Japan’s private sector
How to read the PMI chart
The Composite PMI varies between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating overall growth compared to the previous month, and below 50 indicating contraction.
PUKA
BOJ to boost the yen this Friday? In addition to the eagerly awaited US data slated for release this week, investors will be keeping a close eye on the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision scheduled for Friday.
Market expectations lean towards the BOJ maintaining its current rate settings during Friday's announcement. However, analysts and investors will scrutinize the central bank's commentary for insights into its stance on inflation, as well as indicators like consumption and wages.
A recent forecast from the Japan Center for Economic Research suggests that a majority of economists anticipate at least one more rate hike from the BOJ before year end.
Some market observers speculate that the BOJ's next rate adjustment could be influenced by the depreciation of the yen.
However, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has dismissed this speculation, asserting that this won't directly dictate the central bank's monetary policy decisions. Ueda remains optimistic about wage growth prospects and hints at the possibility of another rate hike if trend inflation shows signs of reaching their projected level.
While we may not see a rate hike this Friday, Deutsche Bank does speculate that BoJ might be able to support the Yen by either removing its JGB purchasing guidelines from its statement or revising them to enhance the flexibility of its purchasing operations
Macro Monday 42 ~ Japan Business Sentiment (ReutersTankanIndex)Macro Monday 42
Japan Reuters Tankan Index – Business Sentiment
(Released this Wednesday 17th April 2024)
Firstly lets briefly cover the Japan Consumer Sentiment we covered last week,
Japan Consumer Sentiment
Last week we covered the Japan Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), which provided a great indication of how the Japanese consumer is feeling. The Japan CCI surveys have a reliable 90.6% response rate from c. 8,400 households. The Japan CCI came in at 39.5 for March last week which was the highest reading in 5 years and demonstrates a trending recovery from lows of 28.6 in Nov 2022.
Any figure below 50 on the Japan CCI is pessimistic however historically the index has only ever rose above 50 briefly twice. We discussed how this is due to many factors such as the Japanese being conservative and risk averse. To remedy this and help find a threshold, I used the historical average level of 40.86 as an indicator of above average historical consumer sentiment (however still pessimistic). If we break above the 40.86 level in coming months this would be a good signal of improving sentiment, essentially that the Japanese consumer is less pessimistic than on average, however still pessimistic.
Japan Business Sentiment
This week we are looking at the Japan Reuters Tankan Index (RTI) which is essentially Japan’s Business Sentiment Indicator.
Why is Business Sentiment in Japan an important macro-economic metric to observe?
1.Japan’s manufacturing output for 2021 was valued at $1.025 trillion USD, making it one of the world’s largest manufacturers. The country is known for its high-quality production in areas such as automobiles, electronics, and robotics
2.Japan contributes c.7.2% towards the world’s total manufacturing output, showcasing its critical role in the global supply chain and its influence on international trade.
3.Japan makes up 8% of total global GDP, despite having only 1.8% of the world’s population.
4.Japan is the third largest economy in the world after the US and China
Now that we understand that Japan is one of the major manufacturing and economic hubs of the world, lets now try to understand how optimistic or pessimistic Japan businesses are feeling at present.
The Japan RTI is collated from data from major leading Japanese companies. 200 manufacturers and 200 non-manufactures advise of improving (above 0) or worsening conditions (below 0). For reference the 200 non-manufacturing companies include the likes of services, retail, finance, and real estate.
The Chart
You will see, as outlined on the chart, that the Japan RTI is made up of 4 sub categories:
1. Business Conditions (current)
2. Business Outlook (future quarter)
3. Large manufacturing outlook
4. Non-manufacturing sector
These subcategories can help in understanding the nuances of sentiment in Japan among different sectors and are crucial for a comprehensive analysis of Japan’s business environment. We might cover these individually when the data is released this Wednesday. I am particularly interested in the future quarter business outlook.
Reading the chart
Above 0 = Business Optimism
Below 0 = Business Pessimism
0 = Neutral
The Japan RTI Business sentiment is currently above 0, firmly in the optimistic zone at 10.
You can see that we have been rejected from the 12 – 13 level three times since 2022 (Aug 2022, Aug 2023 & Dec 2023). If we break above this level it will be the first time in over 2 years that Japan Business sentiment reached this high. Expectations for the coming release this Wednesday are for a reduction to 9. So expectations are low for this weeks release.
Japan Consumer Sentiment has risen from a major low that was established in Nov 2022 and has since been on a significant up trend moving from 28.6 to 39.5. Whilst still in the pessimistic zone the consumer index moves closer towards the historical sentiment average of 40.86.
The Japan RTI Business Sentiment appears to have followed suit rising from a low in Jan 2023 a few months later and is now reaching for recent highs of 12 (current reading of 10 with 9 anticipated this week)
Both the Japan Consumer Sentiment Index and the Japan RFI Business Sentiment Index are trending towards higher optimism (or less pessimism) but have a bit more work to do to offer some confirmatory action.
We will look at the Japan Flash Composite PMI next week which is released Tuesday 23rd April 2024. This will help add perspective in the form of manufacturing/services data directly relating to New Orders, Output, Employment, Deliveries and Stock.
In between now and then I will update the above Japan RTI Business sentiment index this Wednesday and update you on Japan CPI which is released this Friday also (something to watch out for).
We will gradually get familiar the macro-economic data that matters across the globe here on Macro Mondays.
Again, all these charts are available on my Tradingview Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next 5 - 10 years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide I provided. I hope its helpful
Thanks for coming along.
PUKA
Is BOJ's Intervention Hiding Behind Inflation Data? Is BOJ's Intervention Hiding Behind Inflation Data?
Japanese inflation data is scheduled for release on Thursday, but its impact on the market might be subdued. Investors could prefer to pay attention to next week's quarterly growth and price forecasts from the Bank of Japan, which could be the real market movers.
According to sources cited by Reuters, the Bank of Japan is transitioning towards a more flexible approach in its policy decisions, placing less emphasis on inflation targeting.
The upcoming April 25-26 policy meeting will see the release of the Bank's quarterly growth and price projections. This shift in strategy suggests that the Bank of Japan may signal a willingness to raise interest rates irrespective of inflation forecasts, which are anticipated to remain around 2.8% or possibly dip slightly to 2.7%.
On the technical side, the USDJPY pair could maintain an upward bias, with buyers potentially pushing it towards the 155.00 mark.
Recent fluctuations in the USDJPY pair have prompted speculation about possible intervention by the Bank of Japan. After hitting a new high dating back to 1990 at 154.705, the pair experienced a swift and unusual downturn. Market watchers are closely monitoring the 155.00 level, considered another more likely potential intervention threshold by the Bank of Japan.
Following a dip to 153.890, the pair rebounded towards 154.775, supported by neutral to hawkish remarks from US Federal Reserve officials. Fed Chair Powell, speaking at a panel discussion in Washington, highlighted the strength of the labor market and progress on inflation, suggesting the Bank was comfortable with allowing “restrictive policy further time to work”.
Yen Traders Tread Cautiously as Japan Hints at InterventionAnxiety hangs heavy over the yen market. With the Japanese currency hovering near a 34-year low against the U.S. dollar, traders are wary of potential intervention from Japanese authorities. This comes as Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated the government's concerns about the rapid depreciation of the yen.
The Yen's Slide: A Perfect Storm
The yen's recent decline can be attributed to a confluence of factors:
• Divergent Monetary Policies: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy, keeping interest rates near zero, while central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve are aggressively raising rates to combat inflation. This widening interest rate differential makes the dollar a more attractive investment compared to the yen.
• Global Risk Aversion: As geopolitical tensions and concerns about a global economic slowdown escalate, investors are seeking refuge in dollar-denominated assets, further weakening the yen.
• Japan's Trade Dependence: Japan relies heavily on imports for essential resources like energy and food. A weaker yen makes these imports more expensive, potentially fueling inflation within Japan.
Verbal Intervention: A Warning Shot
Finance Minister Suzuki's recent statements can be seen as a warning shot to currency markets. He emphasized the government's "deep concern" about the yen's depreciation and hinted at the possibility of intervention if excessive volatility persists.
However, the effectiveness of verbal intervention is debatable. Without concrete action, traders might remain skeptical.
Intervention: A Double-Edged Sword
Direct intervention in the currency market involves the Japanese government selling dollars and buying yen to artificially strengthen the currency. While this can achieve short-term results, it comes with drawbacks:
• Costly Defense: Intervention can be expensive, draining Japan's foreign currency reserves.
• Market Distortion: Heavy intervention can distort market forces and create uncertainty for traders.
• Limited Effectiveness: The effectiveness of intervention depends on the size of the intervention and the broader economic backdrop. If underlying economic fundamentals favoring a weaker yen persist, intervention might have only a temporary impact.
Traders on Edge: Waiting for the Next Move
Yen traders are currently in a wait-and-see mode. They are closely monitoring the Japanese government's actions and statements, along with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, for any signs that could influence the yen's direction.
The Road Ahead: A Balancing Act
The future path of the yen will be determined by several factors:
• The BOJ's Monetary Policy: Any change in the BOJ's stance, even a hint of a future rate hike, could strengthen the yen. However, the BOJ is expected to remain dovish for the foreseeable future.
• Global Risk Sentiment: If global risk aversion eases, investors might be less inclined to seek refuge in the dollar, potentially aiding the yen.
• The Effectiveness of Intervention: If Japan intervenes in the currency market and does so decisively, it might provide temporary support to the yen.
Conclusion: A Fragile Currency in Uncertain Times
The outlook for the yen remains uncertain. While the Japanese government may intervene to curb its rapid depreciation, the effectiveness of such strategies is limited without addressing the underlying economic factors. The future direction of the yen will likely hinge on global economic developments and the monetary policy decisions of major central banks.
JPY has had 180 next few years written over it for a while nowI wasn't going to post about this one as I imagine it's being covered by everyone what with the captain obvious setup on a basic horizontal but since I've covered the Yen before I may as well
I haven't re-visted this chart properly since I made some calls about that blue broadening wedge a few years back and the initial 152 resistance (see the related posts below) but one of these days in the not too distant future I will
The cyan channel that I spotted out when I looked at it last looks like it's the upper half of a bigger channel
Some very notable calls in recent years:
SPREADEX:NIKKEI and DJ:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance)
CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k
FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115
TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68
NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100
NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120
NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105
NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165