Dxy Insane Opening. Last Stop around.....The Saudi price war was a flashpoint for today's action but it's really all about coronavirus. The news on the weekend worsened with too many cases and outbreaks to count.
The conditions for a panic were evident the moment markets opened plunged heavily lower. Japanese market participants invest abroad massively but when uncertainty hits, they bring their money home. No one wants to be the last one to the exit and now the building is on fire and it's a stampede. Oil Price Declines Roil Global Markets, Virus Containment Efforts Escalate, Supply Crunch Ripples Past China, Treasury Yields Fall Further As Investors Expect More Rate Cuts and there are a lot of issue going around the world so basically 94.26 would be a potential area for dxy which is pivot weekly s3 or even the past lowest low around 93.87 (The last destination where price may head and halt if this pandemic eats global market for a certain while).
Japanese
USDJPY - Weekly chart Hello everyone
Today I was asked by my subscriber to see the USD / JPY chart. I drew attention to the breaking of the resistance line on the weekly chart, which we tested afterwards (this is a break and a test). I also see an inverted head and shoulders pattern - this is a reversal pattern and does look very good.
an interesting pattern now is forming in the right shoulder of this pattern - after a impulsed movement we are compressed in a triangle. Consider the formation of the impulse - correction-impulse.
I like this weekly chart most of all and the whole picture has been drawn for 22 years, because technical analysis works better on large time frames.
I will not analyze fundamental analysis, I will not analyze the Japanese economy and make predictions on it.
But just such a picture as I showed, I expect the next few years
Best regards EXCAVO
USDJPY long - BullsUsdJpy has been trending bullish for the past week or so in my opinion. Last week we saw a very aggressive move to the upside.
Today, 1.29.2020 we saw data on the Dollar interests rates, This data in my opinion will begin to ignite the full out bullish rally to come in the days ahead.
Here in my analysis I am currently taking a long position with a take profit at 109.500-109.600
USDJPYI really believe that this is a bear flag and this is the final touch at the resistance trendline before we can see some downside movement in this pair and the Elliott Wave corrective pattern ABCDE is officially done for now and we should see 5 impulse waves to the downside.
If the price manages to brake the support trendline it will continue to fall even more.
The first area of support from here is the 108.465 area where we could see many confluent price actions in that region.
A close below the 109.70 would signal to the bears to activate their short positions.
- The MACD Histogram starts to level off and I anticipate it to curve to the downside soon enough.
- The RSI is not in the overbought region but I anticipate it to curve to the downside if the bearish momentum continues.
!! Make sure that you make your own analysis before entering a trade and always be cautious in the market.
!! This is not financial advice and it should not be taken as such.
EURJPY Long IdeaHi everyone, with the next trading week coming up, and market opening tomorrow, here is a trade idea I've got for you guys.
EURJPY Long
Fundamentals:
EUR: has been doing ok, good numbers for countries in Europe coming out, so I would see EUR as pretty bullish
JPY: with the US-China Phase One Deal being agreed on, and as per some sources, will be signed on the first week of January 2020, JPY is bearish
Technicals:
I do see a good entry point here, retraced to 61.8% level, getting rejected a little bit, so all depends how market opens tomorrow on Sunday, might be a good addition.
As always, I might make mistakes, nothing is 100% so please be sure to comment your opinion so we can discuss. I am open to any discussions and any opinions.
QM Diamond H1 GBPJPYHi guys!
Yesterday I posted a sell analysis for GbpJpy, it went TP 137.500 for short term trading.
However last night pound was bullish due to decision of the Brexit moved to 12th December 2019.
In timeframe H1, Diamond QM is forming! So we look buy and can TP at the Supply Zone.
Buy @ 140.00 SL 139.750 TP 141.00
Goodluck!
Johnson's resignation, "Japanese disease" & oil The US dollar value is growing in the foreign exchange market. Although we do not agree with the current dollar state, however that what is happening. We are conscious of the futility of trying to go against the market will, but the sensation of the illogical nature of what is happening and the current dollar value still does not pass. So today we will continue to sell the dollar.
Recall that partly the strength of the dollar is in the weakness of opponents. Yesterday, for example, weak data on the leading Eurozone economy came out. Germany now not only has negative economic growth, but also a decline in inflation. And this is already a completely bad signal. Something similar was observed in Japan in the 90s (“the lost decade”) and was called “Japanese disease”. So it seems like Germany has caught the same virus. This is also supported by the fact that leading economic institutions are going to lower forecast for 2019.
In this light we sell EURUSD.
This week, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson may well get his vote of no confidence, and Britain will finally plunge into the abyss of political chaos. Which, will quickly turn into economic chaos. At least yesterday's data on UK GDP (the indicator fell by 0.2% in the second quarter) shows that, as do polls by British companies that are rapidly losing faith in the country's economic prospects.
In general, the pound also has reasons to decline. But on the other hand, do not forget about the rule that has been developed recently: "Johnson’s weakness is pound’s strength." buying in the area of 1.2290 and selling with 1.2350. In both cases, we set the small stops.
There was an increase in sellers in the oil market yesterday. In this case, everything happened according to our forecasts and expectations. As a reason for oil sales, there were conciliatory statements from the country of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia in which he stated that "A bad peace is better than a good quarrel." That is, he confirmed the information that the Kingdom does not want the conflict to escalate.
As a result, the third quarter was the worst for oil in 2019 (prices fell by almost 9%). Our recommendation for oil is unchanged so far - we sell oil. Sales target - bottoms $ 51 (brand WTI).
Precisely because of the peace-loving crown prince, gold yesterday went below 1485. For us, this is a kind of watershed. While gold is below this mark, in our opinion, bears control the market situation. And this means that today we will sell gold with stops above 1285.
EURJPY needs a confirmation candle before tradingEURJPY is still on the bearish formation, however it doesn't mean that you should sell because I said it is overall bearish. What I am trying to say is this pair needs to have a confirmation candle before trading, because you are gambling if you are just trading without knowing what you are saying. Hopefully news tomorrow will give this pair some insights which will it go for the week.
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USDJPY Long tradeThe YEN pair shows rejection on the weekly support, and a clean morning star doji candle on the 4-Hour chart, We are expecting a retrace to the buy zone of 61.8 - 78.6 (which is in confluence with previous support). I will be looking for buy entries there....for a Strong Buy lasting til end of the year.
Overall view of USDJPY107.900 level was attempted to be broken downward several times. Prices are around a strong support zone which contains the hypothetical low of the year (The real low is 104.830 due to the gigantic 400 pips fall of January 2nd followed by a massive reversal to the concerned zone). The odds of an upcoming bull run are average to low. Market has been ranging for a while, in preparation of an eventual volatility.
Possible targets : @109.180 (+80pips), @110.000 (+160 pips) and @110.500 (+210 pips).
Advice : Stay bullish and buy at any low point while we don't break the support zone or 107.900 bottom level. We are close to the bottom level and markets are ranging so the risk is low.
Correlated pairs : CADCHF (92.9%), XTIUSD (89.3%) and XAUUSD (-79.7%).
We are more likely to experience a ranging market near its bottom as with the CADCHF and XTIUSD. XAUUSD is spiking, therefor this increases the odds of a retest of the bottom levels of the inversely correlated pairs.
FTMBTC Looks like its a go across all time frames!!WHen looking at the FTM BTC chart starting off at the 4 hour like I normally do its building up with perfect percision. Its got the proper cross over, momentum, and as I lower the time frame the formation continues to grow the same forming a perfect coss over and cloud break formation. THen when checking the MACD, RSI, SAR, Williams Alligator, and its seperation from the 8 EMA seems to be saying its a GO!
I will be going long here with these as my Take Profit Regions
TP1: 0.00000340
TP2: 0.00000360
TP3: 0.00000380
Enjoy and Happy Bidding everyone!!
And a shark pattern forming in the picture above
Bitcoin Prediction (5/24/19)Meeting resistance.
I think we test the lower levels at $5300~ first.
If support at $5300 breaks, I would argue $4150~ which would give us a chance to fill the gap below. (small but note worthy!)
Breaking $8450 would null this chart and we might look to aim for $9000 - $10,300 before the bulls run out of steam.
I am in a short from $8120.
Cheers, stay safe out there.
Ueki Corp - points to significant Japanese equity undervaluationShort term - short (but not in a position so just waiting),
Medium + LT term long.
Why? Well a couple of reasons. Despite the retraction in sales and profits in the construction industry in Japan as evident from Ueki's results there are some rather signs of value.
I haven't even started a full accounting of undervalued Japanese stocks yet but can see that I will likely buy because:
- Ueki's market cap, for example, is almost 63% lower than its net assets. Compared to U.S. equities that is comparably significantly undervalued. As at December 2018 the average S&P 500 price to book ratio was 2.8 (and this was AFTER the December price drop). Compare that to a P/B value for Ueki of 0.35. i.e. The Company could be liquidated now and would return significantly more than the current price per share to investors.
- Investment Banks are entering long the market - seeing the market as oversold: www.cnbc.com I also read an article a while back that said Morgan Stanley is advising clients to exit US equities which will cause many to look elsewhere in the US and overseas for better value risk adjusted returns: www.investopedia.com I'm not sure if that is the one though,
- Likely due to having been in a 30 year bear market, the Japanese equity market likely has, on average, less downside risk as compared to US stocks: www.bloomberg.com
- My TA points towards a significant appreciation of the JPY vs the AUD, USD, and EUR. If this happens, any returns will magnified. Despite its significant debt load (230% of GDP+) Japanese citizens are willing to take a financial hit buying government bonds with negative interest rates in order to support their Country.
- There are likely better, if not more undervalued, equities out there than Ueki. I feel encouraged to search for some deals.
Thanks for viewing