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CADJPY is perhaps the best sell signal long-term.The CADJPY pair has broken marginally below its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) in recent weeks and turned sideways. This took place on the latest 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) rejection on January 13 2025. As long as the market remains below it, the long-term trend-line will be bearish. The current 1W MA200 consolidation is in fact similar to what followed after the last major long-term rejection in December 2014. As you can see on the chart, we are on similar trading patterns as August - September 2015. Even the 1W RSI sequences among the two fractals are identical, starting off strong Bearish Divergencies that basically were an early signal for the 2015 - 2016 sell-off and possibly now the 2025 - 2026 sell-off. As a result, we are bearish on this pair, expecting a 85.000 Target on high probabilities and a 2nd at 75.000 on lower, which is the 14-year Support Zone. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
3
Weekly FOREX Forecast: Wait To Buy JPY vs USD!In this video, we will analyze JPY futures and USDJPY. We'll determine the bias for the upcoming week, and look for the best potential setups. The Yen is strong, and will outperform the USD in times of uncertainty. It is the worlds' safe haven of choice. Look for a small retracement before JPY pushes higher. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
by RT_Money
GBPJPY Channel Down bottom reached. Rebound expected.Last time we looked into the GBPJPY pair (March 20, see chart below) we had a sell signal which dully delivered our 188.550 Target: This time we have the price at the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the extended Channel Down, with the 1D RSI almost reaching the 30.00 oversold limit. All such bottoms were followed by a rebound that hit at least the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) before a new Channel Down Lower Low. As a result, we are going for a short-term buy here, targeting a potential contact with the 1D MA50 at 190.250. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
USDJPY Moment of truth for the long-term bullish trend.The USDJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Up since the October 17 2022 High and right now the current 1W candle is very close to its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line). This offers a low risk trading set-up. Confirmed buy will be if the price breaks and closes a 1W candle above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), in which case our Target will be July's Resistance at 161.500 (similar to the 2023 Bullish Leg). If on the other hand it breaks and closes a 1W candle below the Channel Up, turn short and target the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) at 139.500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
EURJPY: Top formation, sell opportunity.EURJPY is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.515, MACD = 0.340, ADX = 26.005) as it ranges between its 1D MA50 and 1D MA200. This is a peak formation on the LH trendline of the 5 month Channel Down identical to January. At least a -6.20% bearish wave is to be expected. Today's spike gives an even better sell entry for a TP = 154.00. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
USDJPY Short OpportunityPoint and Figure charting is the OG technical analysis method—no fancy candlesticks or bar charts needed. Unlike other charts, Point and Figure ignores time and focuses purely on price action, offering clarity amid market noise. If candlestick charts look too chaotic for your taste, Point and Figure usually clears things up. Its simplicity is its best feature: fewer patterns and straightforward trade execution rules, compared to the 150+ patterns of Japanese Candlesticks. On the USDJPY 40-pip/3-box reversal P&F chart, a bear flag pattern is currently being tested and acting as solid resistance. This creates an aggressive but appealing short entry opportunity at 148.80. Below this entry, there are multiple potential profit targets, with T3 (141.60) marking the maximum realistic expectation. Now, before you get too excited about a single-column collapse from 148.80 down to 141.60—hold your horses. The odds of USDJPY making such a dramatic drop in one swift move are slim to none. But given the current international trade tensions, stranger things have happened. Think of the area between 148.80 and 141.60 as a zone where it's easier for USDJPY to drift downward rather than grind upward.
Short
by itsjustanalysis
1
CHFJPY rebound on the 1D MA50 expected.The CHFJPY pair is trading within a long-term Descending Triangle and right now is pulling back to test the 1D MA50. This is almost halfway through the rebound that started on the February 28 2025 Support Zone test. All previous rallies hit at least the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level before reversing but since this time we are limited below the Lower Highs trend-line of the Descending Triangle, our Target is 172.500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
Behind the Curtain: Macro Indicators That Move the Yen1. Introduction Japanese Yen Futures (6J), traded on the CME, offer traders a window into one of the world’s most strategically important currencies. The yen is not just Japan’s currency—it’s also a barometer for global risk appetite, a funding vehicle for the carry trade, and a defensive asset when markets turn volatile. But what truly moves Yen Futures? While many traders fixate on central bank statements and geopolitical news, machine learning tells us that economic indicators quietly—but consistently—steer price action. In this article, we apply a Random Forest Regressor to reveal the top macroeconomic indicators driving 6J Futures across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes, helping traders of all styles align their strategies with the deeper economic current. 2. Understanding Yen Futures Contracts Whether you’re trading institutional size or operating with a retail account, CME Group offers flexible exposure to the Japanese yen through two contracts: o Standard Japanese Yen Futures (6J): Contract Size: ¥12,500,000 Tick Size: 0.0000005 = $6.25 per tick Use Case: Institutional hedging, macro speculation, rate differential trading o Micro JPY/USD Futures (MJY): Contract Size: ¥1,250,000 Tick Size: 0.000001 = $1.25 per tick Use Case: Retail-sized access, position scaling, strategy testing o Margin Requirements: 6J: Approx. $3,300 per contract MJY: Approx. $330 per contract Both products offer deep liquidity and near 24-hour access. Traders use them to express views on interest rate divergence, U.S.-Japan trade dynamics, and global macro shifts—all while adjusting risk through contract size. 3. Daily Timeframe: Top Macro Catalysts Short-term movements in Yen Futures are heavily influenced by U.S. economic data and its impact on yield spreads and capital flow. Machine learning analysis ranks the following three as the most influential for daily returns: 10-Year Treasury Yield: The most sensitive indicator for the yen. Rising U.S. yields widen the U.S.-Japan rate gap, strengthening the dollar and weakening the yen. Drops in yields could create sharp yen rallies. U.S. Trade Balance: A narrowing trade deficit can support the USD via improved capital flow outlook, pressuring the yen. A wider deficit may signal weakening demand for USD, providing potential support for yen futures. Durable Goods Orders: A proxy for economic confidence and future investment. Strong orders suggest economic resilience, which tends to benefit the dollar. Weak numbers may point to a slowdown, prompting defensive yen buying. 4. Weekly Timeframe: Intermediate-Term Indicators Swing traders and macro tacticians often ride trends formed by mid-cycle economic shifts. On a weekly basis, these indicators matter most: Fed Funds Rate: As the foundation of U.S. interest rates, this policy tool steers the entire FX complex. Hawkish surprises can pressure yen futures; dovish turns could strengthen the yen as yield differentials narrow. 10-Year Treasury Yield (again): While impactful daily, the weekly trend gives traders a clearer view of long-term investor positioning and bond market sentiment. Sustained moves signal deeper macro shifts. ISM Manufacturing Employment: This labor-market-linked metric reflects production demand. A drop often precedes softening economic growth, which may boost the yen as traders reduce exposure to riskier assets. 5. Monthly Timeframe: Structural Macro Forces For position traders and macro investors, longer-term flows into the Japanese yen are shaped by broader inflationary trends, liquidity shifts, and housing demand. Machine learning surfaced the following as top monthly influences on Yen Futures: PPI: Processed Foods and Feeds: A unique upstream inflation gauge. Rising producer prices—especially in essentials like food—can increase expectations for tightening, influencing global yield differentials. For the yen, which thrives when inflation is low, surging PPI may drive USD demand and weaken the yen. M2 Money Supply: Reflects monetary liquidity. A sharp increase in M2 may spark inflation fears, sending interest rates—and the dollar—higher, pressuring the yen. Conversely, slower M2 growth can support the yen as global liquidity tightens. Housing Starts: Serves as a growth thermometer. Robust housing data suggests strong domestic demand in the U.S., favoring the dollar over the yen. Weakness in this sector may support yen strength as traders rotate defensively. 6. Trade Style Alignment with Macro Data Each indicator resonates differently depending on the trading style and timeframe: Day Traders: React to real-time changes in 10-Year Yields, Durable Goods Orders, and Trade Balance. These traders seek to capitalize on intraday volatility around economic releases that impact yield spreads and risk appetite. Swing Traders: Position around Fed Funds Rate changes, weekly shifts in Treasury yields, or deteriorating labor signals such as ISM Employment. Weekly data can establish trends that last multiple sessions, making it ideal for this style. Position Traders: Monitor PPI, M2, and Housing Starts for broader macro shifts. These traders align their exposure with long-term shifts in capital flow and inflation expectations, often holding positions for weeks or more. Whatever the style, syncing your trading plan with the data release calendar and macro backdrop can improve timing and conviction. 7. Risk Management The Japanese yen is a globally respected safe-haven currency, and its volatility often spikes during geopolitical stress or liquidity events. Risk must be managed proactively, especially in leveraged futures products. 8. Conclusion Japanese Yen Futures are a favorite among global macro traders because they reflect interest rate divergence, risk sentiment, and global liquidity flows. While headlines grab attention, data tells the real story. Stay tuned for the next installment of the "Behind the Curtain" series, where we continue uncovering what really moves the futures markets. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6J1!Education
by traddictiv
AUDJPY This Golden Cross is the signal for selling.The AUDJPY pair gave us last time (February 19, see chart below) an excellent sell signal that easily hit our 93.750 Target and bottom of the Bearish Megaphone: The market is about to complete a 4H Golden Cross and last time it did (January 07 2025), it formed a Top. That was also after a Channel Up that started following an almost -6% decline. Notice how the 1D RSI patterns among the two fractals are similar. The bearish sequence that followed the previous 4H Golden Cross hit the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we expect to see 91.000 by May. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
Market Analysis: USD/JPY Eyes Fresh SurgeMarket Analysis: USD/JPY Eyes Fresh Surge USD/JPY is rising and might gain pace above the 151.00 resistance. Important Takeaways for USD/JPY Analysis Today - USD/JPY climbed higher above the 149.55 and 150.00 levels. - There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 150.30 on the hourly chart at FXOpen. USD/JPY Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh upward move from the 148.20 zone. The US Dollar gained bullish momentum above 148.80 against the Japanese Yen. It even cleared the 50-hour simple moving average and 149.55. The pair climbed above 150.00 and traded as high as 150.94. It is now consolidating gains and there was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 148.18 swing low to the 150.94 high. The current price action above the 150.00 level is positive. Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near 150.95. The first major resistance is near 151.20. If there is a close above the 151.20 level and the RSI moves above 70, the pair could rise toward 152.50. The next major resistance is near 153.20, above which the pair could test 155.00 in the coming days. On the downside, the first major support is 150.30 and a bullish trend line, below which the bears could gain strength. The next major support is visible near the 149.55 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 148.18 swing low to the 150.94 high. If there is a close below 149.55, the pair could decline steadily. In the stated case, the pair might drop toward the 148.40 support zone. The next stop for the bears may perhaps be near the 147.50 region. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
$JPIRYY -Japan's Inflation Rate (February/2025)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY February/2025 source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications - The annual inflation rate in Japan fell to 3.7% in February 2025 from a 2-year high of 4.0% in the prior month, amid a sharp slowdown in prices of electricity (9.0% vs 18.0% in January )and gas (3.4% vs 6.8%) following the government's reinstatement of energy subsidies. Also, food prices rose slightly slower after hitting a 15-month high in January (7.6% vs 7.8%). Further, inflation eased for healthcare (1.7% vs. 1.8%), recreation (2.1% vs. 2.6%), and miscellaneous items (1.1% vs. 1.4%). At the same time, education costs continued to fall (-1.1% vs. -1.1%). In contrast, inflation remained steady for housing (at 0.8%) and clothing (at 2.8%), while accelerating for transport (2.4% vs. 2.0%) and furniture and household items (4.0% vs. 3.4%), and bouncing back for communications (0.1% vs. -0.3%). The core inflation rate dropped to 3.0% from January's 19-month top of 3.2%, above forecasts of 2.9%. Monthly, the CPI dropped 0.1%, the first fall since September, after a 0.5% gain in January.
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
GBPJPY 1D MA200 rejection. Channel Down sell signal.The GBPJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern and the recent Bullish Leg got rejected yesterday on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). If the 1D RSI closes below its MA trend-line, we will have the ideal sell confirmation signal. Our Target is the top of the 4-month Support Zone at 188.550. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
USD/JPY Analysis: Dollar Weakens After Fed DecisionUSD/JPY Analysis: Dollar Weakens After Fed Decision Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, which, as expected, remained unchanged. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasised that there is no rush to cut rates amid uncertainty surrounding US inflation and the tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration. This key announcement triggered volatility in financial markets, notably: → US stock indices rose; → the US dollar weakened, which was evident in currency (and cryptocurrency) charts involving USD pairs. The most significant movement occurred in the USD/JPY chart, as the Bank of Japan was also active yesterday. While it also left interest rates unchanged, it acknowledged growing uncertainty around Japan’s economy and added a new reference to the "changing trade environment." Technical Analysis of USD/JPY As we noted on 21 February when analysing the Japanese yen’s exchange rate against the US dollar: → Price fluctuations are forming a downward channel (marked in red). → The former support at the lower boundary of the blue channel may now act as resistance. Since then, the price has: → Tested the breakout level (indicated by an arrow) before continuing to decline within the channel, confirming its relevance. → Reached the lower boundary of the channel and rebounded upwards from the 147 yen per dollar level. Given that the price is closely interacting with the channel lines and is currently around its median, it suggests that supply and demand are relatively balanced under these conditions. This is further supported by the fact that neither the Fed nor the Bank of Japan introduced surprises, leaving interest rates unchanged. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
USDJPY Channel Down to make an important decision.The USDJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the January 10 High. During that time it technically got rejection upon every 4H MA100 (green trend-line) contact or close contact into a new Bearish Leg. Three out of those four Bearish Legs have been -3.16% so even if a rejection does happen at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down, you can still be expecting 145.350 as a Target. If however the 4H RSI Bullish Divergence on Higher Lows prevails and causes the price to break above the Channel Down, we will accept the small loss on the short and go long instead, targeting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 156.000. A lower Target in that scenario can also be Resistance 2 (154.800). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot