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Japaneseyen

HelenP. I Japanese Yen may exit wedge and to declineHi folks today I'm prepared for you JAPANESE YEN analytics. Last month, Japanese Yen dropped to the level of 129.65 and after the test started to move in an uptrend. Subsequently, the price reached the level of 137.75, from which it started to decline and made a deep correction. After retesting the trendline, the Japanese Yen continued the uptrend and broke through the resistance at level 137.75. Over a long period, the price has formed an ascending wedge, inside which it is now traded. The Japanese Yen reached resistance of wedge and formed a resistance zone of 138.55-138.95. Recently, the price retested the resistance of wedge and resistance zone and start to decline. It seems to me that the price may leave the ascending wedge and go down. The Japanese Yen could drop and break through support, so goals will be set at levels 137.75 and 137.75. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Short
by FirstNameHelen
1
USDJPY broke above a 6-month Resistance level.The USDJPY pair gave us the buy entry we wanted last time (see chart below) almost 2 months ago and we took a successful trade: Right now it is above the 138.210 level, a Resistance that was in effect since December 01 2022. This is a short-term bullish break-out call, so we turn bullish again targeting Resistance Zone 1 at 142.000, which also happens to be the top of the 6-month Channel Up. After this leg is completed, we will short at least as low as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), targeting an internal Higher Lows trend-line at 137.000. On the other hand, if the price breaks below that Higher Lows line first, we will sell the break-out and target the bottom of the Channel Up at 132.000. If selling escalates further and we the pair closes a 1D candle below the Channel Up, we will take a new sell targeting the January 05 2021 Higher Lows trend-line at 126.000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
6
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISThe US dollar has hit a fresh year to date high overnight against the yen at 138.87 as it continues to extend its advance from the low of 133.75 recorded on 11th May. Over that period the yen has been the worst performing G10 currency alongside the Scandi currencies of the Swedish krona and Norwegian krone which have declined by over 2% against the US dollar. The recent move higher in USD/JPY has coincided with the ongoing adjustment higher in US rates. 2-year and 10-year US government bond yields have closed higher for seven consecutive days which is the longest run of higher closing prices since September of last year. It was also a period of yen weakness when USD/JPY was breaking above the 140.00-level for the first time since the middle of 1998. According to the latest CFTC report, leveraged funds have been paring back the size of their short yen positions this month although they still remain close to levels from back in autumn of last year when USD/JPY hit its current cycle high. The BoJ’s ongoing reluctance to tighten monetary policy further in the near-term combined with recent adjustment higher in US rates has triggered renewed upward momentum for USD/JPY. The move higher in US rates was encouraged yesterday by reassuring comments following a meeting between President Biden and House speaker McCarthy on the debt ceiling. After the talks, House speaker McCarthy stated that “the tone was better than any other time we have had discussions”. Both President Biden and House leader McCarthy acknowledged that the talks had been productive although they have not yet reached an agreement. President Biden stated that “we reiterated once again that default is off the table and the only way to move forward is in good faith toward a bipartisan agreement”. House leader McCarthy expects to speak with President Biden on a daily basis until a deal has been reached. The developments support market expectations that a compromise agreement will be reached to raise the debt ceiling before the so-called “X-date”. If those expectations are seriously challenged in the coming weeks then it could trigger a squeeze of short yen positions and a sharp move lower in USD/JPY. At the same time, the move higher in US rates was encouraged yesterday by comments from Fed officials. St Louis Fed President Bullard stated that he is “thinking two more moves this year” to put enough downward pressure on inflation. He is a wellknown hawk and a non-voter on the FOMC this year. The hawkish comments from St Louis Fed President Bullard were partially offset by relatively more cautious comments from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari who stated “we may have to go higher from here, but we may not raise rates quite as aggressively and as quickly as we have over the course of the past year”. He also believes it’s a close call as to whether the Fed raises rates further in June or skips that meeting. We would place more weight on his comments as he is a voter on the FOMC this year. June rate hike expectations have since edged higher again with the US rate market pricing in around 5bps of hikes.
Short
by thunderpips
2
USDJPY trades in 5th impulse wave and can continue to rise Hello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Japanese Yen. Watching the chart, we can see how the price has been moving up for some time. Reaching the level 137.75, the Japanese Yen made a deep correction to form the buyer zone, and continued to grow after a retest. Over time, the price formed the Elliott waves and continues to move up already for some time. The Japanese Yen broke through the level 135.65 (1st wave) and, after a small correction (2nd wave) retest of the current support level, and continued to rise. Not so long ago, the Japanese Yen, forming the 3rd wave of upward impulse, broke through the resistance area 137.50-137.80 and continued to grow. Now the price has made a small correction (4th wave) has decreased and after retesting the current support area, and continued to rise. The price is currently trading above the support area and can continue to rise. I think the Japanese Yen can form a 5th impulse wave and continue upward move. In that case, I decided to set the targets at level 138.75 and at level 140.00. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Long
by LegionQ8
1
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISDerek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets, EMEA & International Securities at MUFG, suggests that the recent trend seeing a weaker Japanese Yen (JPY) may not last, due to the changing dynamics that drove the currency weaker in 2022. "We remain unconvinced that the trend in yen weakness can persist. The dynamics that drove the yen weaker in 2022 are changing and that will mean upside scope will be far less going forward," says Derek Halpenny. He further emphasises the significance of Japan's shifting trade data influenced by falling energy prices. "The turn in the energy markets that has seen the huge negative energy terms of trade shock start to reverse...we saw Japan’s trade deficit continue to shrink helped by falling energy prices," he adds. Japan's Trade Data Halpenny also details the notable decline in Japan's total imports, which fell 2.3% in April, the first drop since January 2021. "A shrinkage in the trade deficit was further helped by a 2.6% increase in exports. Japan’s energy import bill is now falling sharply – the annual change was -17.7% in April which contributed to 5.0ppts of decline in overall imports," says Halpenny. He also addresses the influence of US rate expectations on the yen, implying a potential reversal in the USD/JPY trend when this momentum fades. "Of course this underlying change for the yen will play second fiddle to rate expectations in the US which is the current driver of the move higher in USD/JPY but will add potential impetus the other way when the US rates momentum fades, which it inevitably will do going forward," Halpenny adds.
Short
by thunderpips
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISThe US Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate has rallied on Thursday, amid hopes surrounding the US debt ceiling talks, strong US job data, and upbeat US data releases. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets, EMEA & International Securities at MUFG, suggests that the recent trend seeing a weaker Japanese Yen (JPY) may not last, due to the changing dynamics that drove the currency weaker in 2022. "We remain unconvinced that the trend in yen weakness can persist. The dynamics that drove the yen weaker in 2022 are changing and that will mean upside scope will be far less going forward," says Derek Halpenny. He further emphasises the significance of Japan's shifting trade data influenced by falling energy prices. "The turn in the energy markets that has seen the huge negative energy terms of trade shock start to reverse...we saw Japan’s trade deficit continue to shrink helped by falling energy prices," he adds. Japan's Trade Data Halpenny also details the notable decline in Japan's total imports, which fell 2.3% in April, the first drop since January 2021. "A shrinkage in the trade deficit was further helped by a 2.6% increase in exports. Japan’s energy import bill is now falling sharply – the annual change was -17.7% in April which contributed to 5.0ppts of decline in overall imports," says Halpenny. He also addresses the influence of US rate expectations on the yen, implying a potential reversal in the USD/JPY trend when this momentum fades. "Of course this underlying change for the yen will play second fiddle to rate expectations in the US which is the current driver of the move higher in USD/JPY but will add potential impetus the other way when the US rates momentum fades, which it inevitably will do going forward," Halpenny adds.
Short
by thunderpips
2
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISYen Undervalued, Yuan to Lose Ground Danske Bank continues to expect that the Bank of Japan will tighten monetary policy this year, although the timing remains very uncertain. While a key argument against the Euro is that the currency is overvalued, it considers that the Japanese currency is substantially undervalued. According to Danske; “Overall, USD/JPY seems fundamentally overvalued and combined with potential monetary policy tightening; we expect the cross to drop below 130 on a 6-12M horizon. If inflationary pressures in Japan continue to persist, it will increasingly build pressure on the ultra-dovish stance that the BoJ has. Danske expects the Chinese yuan will lose ground due to broad dollar gains. A weaker Chinese currency would also act as a barrier to Euro gains.
Short
by thunderpips
GBPJPY: Technical sell signal to the 1D MA50.GBPJPY got rejected on R1, making so far a Double Top with the October 31st 2022 High pausing a rally that has started at the beginning of the year. As the 1D technicals show (RSI = 62.785, MACD = 1.330, ADX = 28.382) the trend hasn't changed, technically it does only with a candle under the 1D MA200. But every such HH rejection always tests the 1D MA50. Based on this we are selling on the short-term, TP = 167.500. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
5
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISJapan: High expectations for Q1 GDP, with persistent inflation concerns Japan’s preliminary GDP for Q1 is due on Wednesday and will provide the latest insight into the health of the economy. Bloomberg consensus expects an improvement to 0.8% Q/Q annualized from 0.1% in Q4 when the economy narrowly avoided a recession. While a broader reopening of the economy in the first quarter and the return of some Chinese tourists may have meant a further uptick in the services sector, exports and manufacturing likely remained weak on the back of weakness in global demand. If domestic consumption weakens substantially despite the government travel subsidies and high winter bonuses, it could continue to highlight the risk of a recession. April CPI will also be released on Friday which will likely confirm that price pressures remain concerning. Tokyo CPI for April had come in above expectations despite the falling commodity prices and the base effect. Bloomberg consensus expects national CPI for April to come in at 3.5% for the headline from 3.2% previously while the core-core measure (ex-fresh food and energy) is expected to rise to 4.2% from 3.8% in March.
Short
by thunderpips
GBP JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISJapan: High expectations for Q1 GDP, with persistent inflation concerns Japan’s preliminary GDP for Q1 is due on Wednesday and will provide the latest insight into the health of the economy. Bloomberg consensus expects an improvement to 0.8% Q/Q annualized from 0.1% in Q4 when the economy narrowly avoided a recession. While a broader reopening of the economy in the first quarter and the return of some Chinese tourists may have meant a further uptick in the services sector, exports and manufacturing likely remained weak on the back of weakness in global demand. If domestic consumption weakens substantially despite the government travel subsidies and high winter bonuses, it could continue to highlight the risk of a recession. April CPI will also be released on Friday which will likely confirm that price pressures remain concerning. Tokyo CPI for April had come in above expectations despite the falling commodity prices and the base effect. Bloomberg consensus expects national CPI for April to come in at 3.5% for the headline from 3.2% previously while the core-core measure (ex-fresh food and energy) is expected to rise to 4.2% from 3.8% in March.
Short
by thunderpips
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISJapan: High expectations for Q1 GDP, with persistent inflation concerns Japan’s preliminary GDP for Q1 is due on Wednesday and will provide the latest insight into the health of the economy. Bloomberg consensus expects an improvement to 0.8% Q/Q annualized from 0.1% in Q4 when the economy narrowly avoided a recession. While a broader reopening of the economy in the first quarter and the return of some Chinese tourists may have meant a further uptick in the services sector, exports and manufacturing likely remained weak on the back of weakness in global demand. If domestic consumption weakens substantially despite the government travel subsidies and high winter bonuses, it could continue to highlight the risk of a recession. April CPI will also be released on Friday which will likely confirm that price pressures remain concerning. Tokyo CPI for April had come in above expectations despite the falling commodity prices and the base effect. Bloomberg consensus expects national CPI for April to come in at 3.5% for the headline from 3.2% previously while the core-core measure (ex-fresh food and energy) is expected to rise to 4.2% from 3.8% in March.
Short
by thunderpips