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2022/8/3 11:49 EUR/JPY analysePivot Point: 135.6 Currently: Resisted at 135.1 and retraced back to 134.8 Reaction: Consolidating at this 135.9 level , its next support zone is at 136.5 I just started sharing my daily technical analysis of Metals & Forex Market with my indicators on tradingview~ Wish to receive some feedbacks from you! 😊 Btw you can feel free to use our designed indicators!!! Just lemme know if you want it! Follow & like our posts to support us😎! Can’t wait to chat with you more~
Short
by idealcase
2022/8/2 11:29 EUR/JPY analysePivot Point: 134.3 Currently: Consolidating at this 134.8 level , its next support zone is at 135.1 Reaction: Resisted at 134 and retraced back to 133.8 I just started sharing my daily technical analysis of Metals & Forex Market with my indicators on tradingview~ Wish to receive some feedbacks from you! 😊 Btw you can feel free to use our designed indicators!!! Just lemme know if you want it! Follow & like our posts to support us😎! Can’t wait to chat with you more~
Long
by idealcase
1
EURJPY analysis: approaching a dangerous zoneThe yen maintains its positive momentum by attracting buying flows from investors seeking refuge in safe-haven currencies as global recession fears grow. The yen also received additional support after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya acknowledged last week that the BoJ should begin considering tools to end ultra-expansionary monetary policy, though the actual change is unlikely to occur anytime soon. In addition to the dollar, the Japanese yen is strongly regaining ground also against the euro, with EUR/JPY now trading at late May levels and down about 6% from June highs. The appreciation of the yen against the euro occurred despite the ECB's 50-basis-point rate hike in July, leaving the BoJ as the only major central bank that has not yet raised rates. Japan has remained more isolated from worrying energy risks in Europe, where the clouds of an impending economic recession are gathering. The 10-year yield spread between Germany and Japan has fallen to 0.6%, the lowest since mid-May, as Bund yields have collapsed in response to data indicating a bleak economic picture in the Eurozone. Technically speaking,tThe formation of a triple top at the end of June ended the EUR/JPY currency pair's multi-year uptrend, and the breakout of the neckline support at 137-137.5 solidified the trend reversal bearish pattern. The RSI is dangerously pointing down, but it still doesn't show that technical conditions are oversold. The next level of support is seen at psychological 134, followed by 132.7 (May 12 lows).
by Capitalcom
Japanese Yen E-mini Futures (J71!), Type : Bullish Rise Resistance : 0.007784 Pivot: 0.007629 Support : 0.007490 Preferred Case: On the H4, with prices moving above the ichimoku indicator and broken out of the descending channel, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 0.007629 where the overlap resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are. Once there is upside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 1st resistance at 0.007784 where the pullback resistance, 127.2% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could drop to the 1st support at 0.007490 where the pullback support is. Fundamentals: Since it was stated that the central bank won’t hesitate to add stimulus if the economy needs it, we have a bullish view on the Japanese Yen.
CME_MINI:J71!Long
by Genesiv
Does the pullback in the USDJPY have legs? The US dollar has retreated against its major trading pairs over the past two weeks, but notably, the USDJPY has seen one of the most interesting pullbacks. After peaking on July 14, the USDJPY has fallen more than 4% from a peak just below 139.500. The 2-week weakening streak may continue as the sentiment from the previous FOMC meeting has been conceived as mildly negative for the USD. The Federal Reserve increased its interest rates by 75-basis-points for the second consecutive time on Wednesday, but Chair Jerome Powell stated that a slower hike pace is a possibility, suggesting that the hawkishness may have already passed its peak. This sentiment sent the USDJPY on a sharp correction to the downside. The perspective on this pair on the daily timeframe also suggests that the USDJPY may continue its downward trajectory as the price closed below the 50-day moving average, closing in on 133.300 after creating a low at 132.504. Together with the Donchian Channel Fibonacci Zone, we can see that the price fails to stay inside the blue zone after hitting 138.879 high, breaking below the grey zone and creating a three-day consolidation range between 137.422 and 136.086 before falling inside the orange zone indicating a possible downtrend. With this indicator, the price inside the blue zone is considered an uptrend zone, and the grey zone is considered a ranging zone, while the orange zone is considered a downtrend zone. These Fibonacci lines/zones can also act as either support or resistance levels, and can be used by traders as entry and exit points.
by BlackBull_Markets
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE Hawkish Fed policy remains a key driver for Dollar strength. With headline inflation >9%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their June meeting, and continuing with Quantitative Tightening. However, as a result of increasing fears of a growth slowdown (as evidenced by recent econ data), STIR markets have repriced lower, and now expects a terminal rate of 3.5% (versus >4% before the June FOMC meeting). Even though lower STIR pricing should be negative for the USD, the growth concerns has sparked further risk off concerns and have seen safe haven flows into the USD. The USD is usually inversely correlated to the global economy and trade, appreciating when growth & inflation slows and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates. Further expectations of a cyclical slowdown and continued tight monetary policy expectations has seen investors shun risk assets and even bonds (usually considered a safe haven), and the USD has been a key benefactor of the rush to safety in recent weeks. The current high inflation has meant that bonds have not been sought as a safe haven with a strong stock-to-bond correlation, and this has caused big bond outflows. With bonds not fulfilling its usual save haven role the USD has been the haven of choice. The bias remains bullish , but with stretched tactical and CFTC positioning we don’t want to chase the USD higher right now. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As aggressive Fed policy has been supporting the USD, any incoming data that sparks further aggressive hike expectations, or comments from the FOMC that signals even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions. As the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status matters. Any incoming data that exacerbates fears of recession and triggers a big flush in risk assets and triggers a rush to safety should be positive for the USD. Further outflows in US bonds means more USD safe haven appeal. So, watching key triggers for further upside in bond yields like rising commodity prices, rising inflation expectations and upside surprises in inflation data could also trigger further USD bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Even though the USD has been trading like a safe haven, the worse growth data continues to get, the higher the likelihood of a ‘Fed Put’ in the months ahead. Thus, extremely bad growth data could trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. The USD is trading close to cycle highs while aggregate CFTC positioning is close to prior highs which acted as local tops. Thus, stretched positioning could make the USD vulnerable to short-term mean reversion, but finding strong enough bearish catalysts has been tricky recently. With a lot already priced for the Fed, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any FOMC comments that suggests more concern about the economy than inflation could trigger bearish reactions in the USD, but with inflation so high any major dovish pivots seem unlikely for now. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressive and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk assets. But we want to be mindful that lots has been priced for the USD, and as growth deteriorates, it could start to weigh on the USD if markets start pricing in a ‘Fed Put’, even though current inflation suggests any dovish pivot seems a while away. Also, as the safe haven of choice any further recession focused downside in risk assets could continue to prove supportive for the USD. In the short-term though, with positioning in mind, we prefer much deeper pullbacks for new med-term USD longs and would look for short-term catalysts that offer short-term bearish sentiment-based trades. JPY FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH BASELINE The Yen has seen a lot of depreciation this year driven by very negative fundamentals. Yield differentials has by far had the biggest negative impact. With other major central banks starting aggressive hiking cycles, it has lifted yields quite dramatically, which has seen yields like US10Y push considerably higher than 10-year Japanese yields capped at 0.25% by yield curve control. That means dovish monetary policy remains a key negative driver. Despite inflation starting to push higher in Japan, and despite the lessons from other central banks, the BoJ once again stayed very dovish at their July meeting. Even though the JPY is considered a safe haven, inflows has been limited compared to other cycles. The reason is Japan’s current account surplus (a main reason for safe haven appeal) has deteriorated due to the rise in commodity prices. Japan imports the bulk of their commodities , so very high energy prices has added to downside. The BoJ and MoF’s reluctance to intervene to stop the rapid depreciation in the JPY in recent weeks has been noticeable. As long as they just voice their dislike but fail to act, the market will keep testing them. Having said that, if US10Y and commodities start reacting more negatively to the currency negative cyclical growth outlook it could ease a lot of the JPY’s pressure and given positioning could see some sizeable upside in the short-term. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalyst that triggers speculation that the BoJ could drop YCC or hike rates or both (big upside surprises in inflation ) could trigger upside in JPY, which means inflation data will be important to keep on the radar. Catalysts that trigger meaningful corrections in US10Y (less hawkish Fed, faster deceleration in US inflation , faster deceleration in US growth) or meaningful bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions from the JPY. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in key commodities like Oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage) could trigger bullish JPY reactions. Any intervention from the BoJ or MoF to stop JPY depreciation (buying the JPY or giving firm and clear lines in the sand for USDJPY ) could offer decent reprieve for the JPY. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With yield differentials playing such a huge role for the JPY, any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed, further acceleration in US inflation , better-than-expected US growth data) could trigger further bearish price action for the JPY. Any catalyst that creates further upside in oil prices (further supply concerns, geopolitical tensions) poses downside risks for Japan’s current account surplus and could trigger further bearish reactions in the JPY. Further reluctance from the BoJ and MoF to address the concerning depreciation in the JPY, and further reluctance from the BoJ to pivot away from very dovish policy is a continued negative driver for the JPY to keep on the radar. If the BoJ pushes back against calls for a policy shift despite upside surprise in CPI could trigger further JPY downside. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook remains bearish for the JPY, especially after the BoJ once again stuck to the same overly dovish script at their July meeting. As long as US10Y gains ground and as long as the BoJ stays stubbornly dovish and no push back is made against the JPY weakness from the BoJ or MoF, the bias remains lower. But take note of positioning which means we don’t want to chase the JPY lower and bullish reactions can see outsized upside on big drops in US10Y & commodities . It also means watching incoming CPI data closely as any huge upside surprises could trigger speculation of a possible policy shift.
by thunderpips
JAPANESE YEN FUTURES (6J1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise Resistance : 0.0079195 Pivot: 0.0076525 1st Support : 0.0074905 2nd Support: 0.0074080 Preferred Case: On the H4, with prices moving above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 0.0076525 where the swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are. Once there is upside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 1st resistance at 0.0079195 where the swing high resistance and 161.8% fibonacci extension are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could drop to the 1st support at 0.0074905 where the pullback support is. Once there is downside confirmation that price has broken 1st support structure, we would expect bearish momentum to carry price to 2nd support at 0.0074080 in line with pullback support. Fundamentals: Since it was stated that the central bank won’t hesitate to add stimulus if the economy needs it, we have a weak bullish view on the Japanese Yen.
CME:6J1!Long
by Genesiv
USDJPY fundamental analysis: Is the yen out of the woods now?The Japanese yen rose to 133 against the dollar ( USD/JPY ), recovering from its 24-year lows. Short-term tailwinds are supporting the yen as the market has repriced Fed interest rate risks to the downside and has already priced in a rate cut in the first half of 2023. The yen is currently doing well in its traditional role as a recession hedge, with the US economy in a “technical recession” and the need to maintain growth “below potential” for a while in order to rebalance supply and demand. The yen has also recently received fresh support after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya acknowledged that the BoJ should start considering the tools for ending ultra-loose monetary policy, even though the actual shift will not take place soon. USD/JPY vs US/Japan 2-year spread Treasury yields are falling, providing some relief to the rate differential between the United States and Japan, which has been the primary driver of the yen’s depreciation this year. The 2-year yield spread between the United States and Japan has narrowed to around 300 basis points (or 3pp), as the US 2-year yield fell to 2.87 percent, while the Japan 2-year yield remained negative at -0.1 percent. Despite this short-term narrowing of the US/Japan rate spread, the monetary-policy gap between the Fed and the BoJ still remains well in place, which may prevent the yen from strengthening too much against the dollar, unless some major catalysts occur. What could push USD/JPY below 130? The first refers to disappointing US employment and economic data, which would support an economic slowdown. If this is coupled with easing inflationary pressures, it would strengthen market expectations of a Fed’s policy U-turn in early 2023, pushing the 2-year US/Japan differential to 2.5 percent or slightly below. This level is consistent with a USD/JPY pair in the 128-130 range. The second factor that could support the yen’s resurgence is Japan’s rising inflation rate, which, despite remaining relatively low, has risen for 10 consecutive months, exerting pressure on the Bank of Japan to change its monetary policy. Bottom line: short-term relief, but medium-term doubts In general, the macro picture may be tilting in favour of the yen, at least in the short term, but the downside risks, in the medium term, are not over. The Fed has already stated that the Q2 GDP figures should be taken with “a grain of salt” because the labour market remains very solid and tight for an economy in recession. There will still be two inflation prints in the United States between now and the September 21 FOMC meeting. Despite the fact that the United States was already in a de facto recession in the first half of the year, inflation has continued to rise. As a result, it will be remarkably difficult to bring inflation down quickly, implying that the Fed must maintain a hawkish stance for the months to come. Analysis by Capital.com's forex and metals analyst Piero Cingari
by Capitalcom
2022/7/28 11:59 EUR/JPY analyse Pivot Point: 137.6 Currently: Consolidating at this 138.6 level , its next support zone is at 139.8 Reaction: Resisted at 137.31 and retraced back to 136.75 I just started sharing my daily technical analysis of Metals & Forex Market with my indicators on tradingview~ Wish to receive some feedbacks from you! 😊 Btw you can feel free to use our designed indicators!!! Just lemme know if you want it! Follow & like our posts to support us😎! Can’t wait to chat with you more~
Long
by idealcase
USDJPY: Bullish Move From Trend Line 🇺🇸🇯🇵 Hey traders, Even though USDJPY was very bearish the last 2 weeks, remember that the pair is still trading in a global, sharp bullish trend. The price dropped to a peculiar confluence zone this morning: we see a perfect match between a rising trend line and 618 retracement of the last bullish impulse. I will expect a bullish move from that. Goal - 137.35 ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
10
GBPJPY Trade according to these levelsThe GBPJPY pair has previously formed an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern (IH&S) that hasn't yet fulfilled its levels. The reason is the Lower Highs trend-line that has been formed since the June 09 High. Only a break above that level, which caused a rejection yesterday, can initiate a new bullish wave, in which case our targets will be 168.535 and if the Channel Up breaks, then pursue the 1.5 Fibonacci extension of the IH&S. Until that happens, we are on a short-term sell, targeting the Higher Lows trend-line. After that, only a break below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) can justify further selling. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
1
JAPANESE YEN FUTURES (6J1!), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumType : Bearish Momentum Resistance : 0.0073705 Pivot: 0.0073385 Support : 0.0072935 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and along the descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the pivot at 0.0073385 in line with the pullback resistance to the 1st support at 0.0072935 where the swing low support and 61.8% fibonacci projection are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 0.0073705 where the pullback resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement and -27.2% fibonacci expansion are. Fundamentals: Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said that the Japanese government is concerned about the Yen’s recent rapid weakening, giving us a bearish bias on the Japanese Yen.
CME:6J1!Short
by Genesiv
NZDJPY Inverse Head and Shoulders - Sell SignalThe NZDJPY pair has completed an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern as it continues to trade on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Technically this is a bearish reversal pattern. With the 1D RSI on Lower Highs similar to the November 2021 - Jan 2022 sequence that printed a Lower Low, we are expecting a similar sell-off. Our first target is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and if broken, the 79.500 Support on the longer-term. This trade is invalidated if the price breaks above the Resistance Zone. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by TradingShot
CADJPY Trading plan based on simple break-outs.The CADJPY pair has been consolidating within a Triangle pattern since the June 08 High and basically supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since early March. The 1W MACD is close to a Bearish Cross and with the 1D RSI practically neutral, the pattern draws similarities with the peak formation of June 2021. That sequence eventually broke below and turned the 1D MA50 into a Resistance, before marginally breaking below the Support. Currently the new Support is at 98.100 and this is best traded on break-outs. A break below the 1D MA50 again, will be a sell, aimed at 98.100 and quite possibly contact the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). On the other hand, a break above the 107.100 High, will be a buy signal, targeting the -0.5 Fibonacci extension around 111.500. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
1