TRADE SIGNAL: EURJPY LONG 21 May 2024Factoring in some learning from my previous 2 trade signals, i have strong conviction that EJ might pullback to immediate past resistance(now support) to gather some liquidity before pushing up. Hence i'd recommend long positions for the pair. See details below
Position Parameters;
Entry BUY @ 169.500 - 169.223
Flex SL 169.060
Final TP 170.496
Note: i'd share updated confluences from next post.
Warning:
1. trading derivative could result to loss of your capital, kindly apply caution and use only the money you can afford to lose.
2. Previous performance is not a guarantee that my signals will profit you. Accept and implement this idea at your own risk.
3. You are advised to apply proper risk management while trading derivatives...!!!
BR,
Kings
Learn how to trade. See my signature below or visit my profile for more details
Japaneseyen
CHFJPY Sell opportunity.The CHFJPY pair is trading on a Falling Wedge pattern, which every time it formed within the long-term Channel Up, it was followed by a sharp decline. The last one hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has so far held twice, rendering it the new Support level.
Notice that all those tops, had a similar 1D MACD structure. As a result, we turn bearish on the short-term on CHFJPY, targetng 169.000 (1D MA200).
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GBPJPY: Bullish continuation. 1D MA50 in full support.GBPJPY is almost overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 69.343, MACD = 1.720, ADX = 59.150) and is extending the bullish wave inside the 16 month Channel Up. The overbought technicals shouldn't be a factor for a bearish reversal as long as the 1D MA50 continues to support. We are confident with buying, aiming at the top of the Channel Up (TP = 208.000).
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AUDJPY Channel Up topped. Sell signal.The AUDJPY pair reached the top of its long-term Channel Up, while at the same time the 1D MACD is about to complete a Bearish Cross today. This is a strong sell signal combination and the minimum decline that the pair has within this Channel Up on a pull-back, has been -1.84%. As a result our short-term Target is 102.650.
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USDJPY Channel Up aiming higher.The USDJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Up since the December 28 2023 market bottom and has started the new Bullish Leg on the May 03 2023 bounce (Higher Low) on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
The previous two Bullish Legs rose on average by +8.00%, so we expect a similar development. As a result we are bullish, targeting 163.000.
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EURJPY Still bullish. Continue buying the dips.The EURJPY pair gave us a textbook buy-low-sell-high two-way trade last time we looked at it (March 25, see chart below) and hit both targets:
Right now it may be shifting into a new Channel Up (dashed), diverging slightly from the (blue) long-term one. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been holding as Support basically since the January 10 bullish break-out, so technically the long-term trend remains bullish.
Our Target is 173.500, the top of the (blue) long-term Channel Up.
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Bond Market Hints Towards a Second Wave of Shorts to hit the JPYLate last year the Spread of the US/JP Carry Trade hit the PCZ of a Bearish Shark resulting in it pulling back to the 50% Retrace, this came ahead of Bearish Action in the stock market and strength in the JPY. However, the bounce at the 50% retrace indicates that it could turn into a Bullish 5-0 which would result in higher highs. In addition to that, the leverage ratio on the trade has been forming what looks to be a nice looking Cup with Handle pattern, which if it plays out would bring the leverage ratios up from 500% to well over 800%. This would likely align with higher highs in the SPX, Higher Inflation Rates, Higher Commodity, Import/Export Costs, and a continuation of the falling Japanese Yen.
I will leave the chart of last year's Carry Spread Chart Post below for reference.
USDJPY: Bullish short term. Attention at the top of the Channel.USDJPY is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.858, MACD = 0.730, ADX = 52.633) and is rebounding after almost the second 1D MA50 test in 2 weeks. The pair is capitalizing on the bullish momentum of the 1 year Channel Up but this rebound could be the last before a correction, as the price is very close to the HH top trendline. Our goal is still that top (TP = 160.000).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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EURJPY BULLISH - 15 May 2024Like, comment and share with your peers!
Am looking for buys on EURJPY between the range below.
Find my confluences below;
✅Price at psychological level?
✅Has there been a recent intraday range?
✅Do you see 30 mins or 1 hr price bar closure outside recent range?
✅Will position be in the direction of 4hr and Daily trend ?
✅Has nearby wicks to the lefthand side been identified and marked as potential problem area/TPx?
With these ticked, i choose my entry and SL accordingly with the intention of giving my trade a second chance if my SL is hit
Position Parameters
Entry 169.000-169.364
SL 168.687 (flexible - put SL as occasion serves you and give the trade a second chance if SL is hit)
TP 170.505
Drop a comment to let me know if you have picked up a thing or two form my analysis
Warning:
1. trading derivative could result to loss of your capital, kindly apply caution and use only the money you can afford to lose.
2. Previous performance is not a guarantee that my signals will profit you. Accept and implement this idea at your own risk.
You are advised to apply proper risk management while trading derivatives...!!!
BR,
Kings
Learn how to trade. See my signature below or visit my profile for more details
Entry 169.000-169.364
SL 168.687
TP 170.505
EURJPY Long Continues - 10 May 2024Like, comment and share my analysis with your frineds
Morning Friends,
EJ has a very strong bullish outlook and will most likely continue pushing up.
Entry - 167.650 - 167.721 area
SL 167.397
TP 168.507
Warning : trading derivative could result to loss of your capital, kindly apply caution and use only the money you can afford to lose.
You are advised to apply proper risk management while trading derivatives...!!!
BR,
Kings
Learn how to trade. See my signature below or visit my profile for more details
EURJPY Long - 09 May 2024I expect to see price pump after that wild range.
SL 167.030
TP 168.010
Make sure to apply proper risk management.
Warning: trading derivative could result to loss of your capital, kindly apply caution and use only the money you can afford to lose.
You are advised to apply proper risk management while trading derivatives...!!!
BR,
Kings
See my signature below or visit my profile for more details
EURJPY: Going Up Again?! 🇪🇺🇯🇵
EURJPY leaves clear bullish clues,
after a breakout of a solid intraday resistance last week.
After the violation of the underlined structure,
the price started to consolidate within a horizontal range.
Bullish violation of the resistance of the range this morning
is an important bullish confirmation.
We can expect more growth now.
Next resistance - 186.5
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EURJPY: Time For Pullback?! 🇪🇺🇯🇵
EURJPY may retrace from a key daily horizontal resistance.
The market looks quite overbought after quite an extended bullish movement.
A cup & handle formation on an hourly time frame indicates a local strength
of the sellers.
I expect a retracement at least to 166.76 support.
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Can this Falling Wedge save the Japanese Yen?The Yen has taken quite a beating this year, but upon analyzing its price action I noticed it is currently inside a falling wedge which usually breaks upwards most of the time, so perhaps this pattern can help rescue it from further demise. We will know soon enough as its nearing its apex. *not financial advice*
Silent Samurai: Why Japan Keeps Mum on the Yen's Fate f JapanThe Japanese Yen has been on a rollercoaster ride recently, weakening against the US dollar. This has sparked concerns in Japan, but the government has remained tight-lipped on whether they've intervened to prop up the currency. This silence, some argue, is a strategic necessity in the face of a more dominant player: the US Federal Reserve.
Traditionally, governments use currency intervention – buying or selling their own currency – to influence exchange rates. A weaker yen can benefit Japanese exporters by making their goods cheaper overseas. However, a rapidly depreciating yen can also lead to inflation, hurting Japanese consumers.
So, why the silence from Japan? Here are some key reasons:
• The Power of the Fed: The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions have a massive impact on global currency markets. When the Fed raises interest rates, it strengthens the dollar as investors seek higher returns in US assets. This, in turn, weakens currencies like the yen. Japan's silence could be a way to acknowledge this reality. Publicly admitting intervention against the Fed's tightening stance might be seen as futile or even provocative.
• Preserving Intervention Ammunition: Currency intervention is expensive. It depletes a country's foreign reserves and can be ineffective in the long run if underlying economic conditions don't improve. By staying silent, Japan might be trying to keep the markets guessing about potential intervention. This uncertainty itself can sometimes deter speculators from further weakening the yen, achieving some effect without actually spending reserves.
• Signaling Commitment to Market Forces: Openly intervening can be seen as a lack of confidence in a market-driven exchange rate system. Japan might be prioritizing long-term economic stability by allowing the yen to find its natural level based on market forces, even if it's uncomfortable in the short term.
• Focus on Broader Economic Policy: The yen's weakness is just one piece of a complex economic puzzle. Japan's government might be prioritizing other measures to stimulate the economy, such as fiscal spending or structural reforms. Addressing these underlying issues could have a more lasting impact on the currency than short-term intervention.
However, the silence isn't without its critics. Some argue that a lack of transparency undermines market confidence. Additionally, if the yen weakens excessively, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might be forced into raising interest rates, contradicting its current ultra-loose monetary policy. This could create unwelcome economic disruptions.
What's Next for the Yen?
The future of the yen hinges on several factors, including:
• The Fed's Path: The pace and extent of the Fed's interest rate hikes will significantly influence the dollar-yen exchange rate. If the Fed slows down its tightening, the pressure on the yen could ease.
• Japan's Economic Performance: A stronger Japanese economy with signs of inflation could naturally lead to a yen appreciation.
• Intervention Decisions: While Japan might remain tight-lipped, any covert intervention could impact the market.
The coming months will be crucial for the yen. The silence from Japanese authorities might be a calculated strategy, but its effectiveness remains to be seen. Only time will tell if Japan can navigate these choppy currency waters and achieve a stable yen without sacrificing its broader economic goals.
USDJPY: Bullish Pattern Again?! 🇺🇸🇯🇵
Bulls look strong again on USDJPY.
After a presumable intervention, the market dropped by 500 pips on Monday.
The price formed a bullish triangle on a 4H time frame then.
At the moment, I see a confirmed violation of its neckline
The pair may keep growing at least to 158.35 now.
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USDJPY: Why It Dropped? 🇺🇸🇯🇵
This morning, USDJPY dropped by more than 500 pips this morning.
If you are looking for a reason why it happened,
remember that historical structure always leaves clues.
The price perfectly respected a historic structure of 1990th.
Today, we see a perfect example how important are historical levels,
and how the market remembers the things that happened more than 30 years ago.
Learn key levels because that is the key for successful trading.
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NZDJPY: Channel Up bottom buy.NZDJPY is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.679, MACD = 0.060, ADX = 31.385) as it trades between the 1D MA50 and the 1D MA100. Despite the neutrality, the price sits at the bottom of the Channel Up pattern, having made its 2nd contact this month. The 1D MACD has been squeezed and is past a Bullish Cross, which has been a buy signal inside this pattern 2 out of 2 times it was formed. Consequently we turn bullish on the medium term aiming at +6.00% profit (TP = 95.500).
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