Jaycepham
[Weekly forecast] - Dollar index1. The big picture
What we can see on big picture now is " Buying pressure is being absorbed quite clearly"
2.The confirmation
First of all, the confirmation was show by breaking H1's Key level to change the trend from up movment to down movement in H1 timeframe.
It is the first confirmation for the pullback of DXY can run down more.
But, now market has come to H4's up trend key level.
This down cycle maybe held here?
What is our next plan?
3. Next plan
Combine Smart Money Concepts - Key level strategy together , what we can expect now will be :
- Case #1, market will go up to H1 down supply zone to collect more power to break out H4 Key level.
- Case #2, we will wait to sell at POI zone of Smart Money stream. With the power from Big boys, it is easier and more safety to break out H4 key level to start the down trend as we discussed on the big story.
Target will be the strong demand zone as we can see on the chart.
Note : These plans will be removed if market has valid break out POI zone.
Always wait the confirmation at the core zone to sell.
As my view, Case #2 will be our main case that we should follow.
Gold before the news NFTAs my many analyzation about GOLD, Gold started the down trend from early this week to 1700.
The target done, now is the time we have to wait what happen next at D1's supply zone :
Below is my 2 scenarios for Gold before NFT :
1/ Marked will bounce from D1 zone to H4 and continue going down
2/ Continue going through D1 zone
As my view, market will run as 1/ like a range and wait power from NFT news.
IF market really break out H4's Key level, at that time, we should follow up movement in shortly.
NZDUSD showed lack of liquidity as phase I of Manipulation Early this week, we're looking for short buy chance on Pullback wave NZDUSD after market showed lack of liquidity as phase I in manipulation.
If price break out lowest low, this scenario will be canceled.
In long terms, selling power still really strong.
Dollar index - DXY - Strong bullish Senarios :
1/ Break and re-test KL H4
2/ Come to POI
I suspect the firtst cases than 2nd case but we still need the confirmation more.
Btw, Everyone wait more confirmation from candles pattern when DXY are too strong movement like this.
Overbought case and drop can be happened.
Risk management always need for the case like this. ( I prefer to trade when market change trend than this one, even new small trend)
For low timeframe from M5-M1, no problem about big picture to trade. Just follow market structure on those timeframes are OK.
US30 showed lack of liquidity - Manipulation phase 1 After sharply movement, US30 now came to Manipulation phase 1.
Using Un-confluence strategy to find the entry point.
If possible, we can wait for selling momentum is more clearly to sell.
If market can break out the recent highest high, market will come to the range case. We should wait.
Don't forget to risky zone at POI for up trend.
XAUUSD - Gold on range now Market now on the range of H4.
H1 - up trend but up cycle on H1 is short and finished.
We're monitoring how price will act at H1's Key level.
If it bounce here --> it is good to Buy.
In case H1's KL for up was broken, selling order is our choice.
Fluctuation now is high when market in range. Becareful to any trade.