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Jnug to Gold Last week of November 20164 Hour Chart Time for a bounce yet? I think yes. But nothing too fabulous. The oscillators need to cool off because the next drop will be big. We are way oversold with a lot of bullish divergences. I think we arein the middle or our B pattern and the Fed hike should mark the beginning of the downward C. I also think that the December 4th Italy vote cold give us a little pop but nothing like Brexit. I measured the drop for a with a purple line. (look at the chart. I copied it and then moved it to where I think our possible high for Jnug could reach (around $11.30), and then used the purple line to measure a possible C move. And as you can see, it was quite a fit right down to where I think a bottom will reach this year or early next year. Short and sweet this time. GL
AMEX:JNUGLong
by SalN
Jnug to Gold possible bottom at 1186Dollar Daily Chart I wanted to start off with the Dollar chart because this week something happened. The dollar broke to new 13 year highs. And from my point of view, that changed the count for the dollar. By changing the count, I worked out as best that I could what to expect in the near term future. First lets look at Fib #2. Fib #2 shows the 100% level of Wave #1, (which we just passed this week). What that suggests is that we are currently in Wave 3. So how high can Wave three go. My absolute top is 103.10, But I think it will end at 102.81. WHY 102.81? Because if the Wave 2 correction was a steep clean nearly 61% retracement as Fib #1 shows, then Wave 4 retracement should be a shallow 38% retracement as Fib #3 shows. Fib #3 shows 102.81 with a retracement back down to the top of the major resistance, Which is now support, which is coincidentally the 38%. Make Sense? Hope I am not confusing you. So then what, I think we start Wave 5 with the December 14th rate hike. I marked it with a black line. Wave 5 should also take gold way down to the 1115 - 1120 level. That's my low for the end of January. Possibly turning around on Inauguration day. Fib #4 shows a 100% measurement of Wave #1 and of course it could be higher than that. So anywhere from 104.45 to 106.89. I will follow up with Gold in a little bit. But you should get where I am going with all of this.
TVC:DXYShort
by SalN
Jnug to Gold Nov 15Daily Chart Well so Far so Good. We still have room to run, but to how high? I measured the height of this move over the last two days. Then I extended it and it reached that resistance area up around $12.27. My thought on the issue is that tomorrow will kind of give me an idea of how the next three or four days will go. Today was very promising. The economic data this morning should have killed gold but it did not. That is very bullish. I am hoping for tomorrows data to gap us up to that first strong resistance between the $8.90 - $9.60 area. If we punch through that then I feel good about us reaching the $12.27 range. Then, As you can see, we should be due for a couple days of consolidation. I am envisioning a wedge type of trading for a couple of weeks. Not what I like to trade unless its real big swings. But based on what I am seeing, I think, IF we reach that $12.27 area by EOW or beginning of the next, then I will quickly buy into dust for about four days and then reconsider what to do. I may jump into OIL DWTI for a couple weeks at that point as the upward consolidation for oil to $48 should be over by then and the continuation down to $40 - $39. The real question that is plaguing me is, .....when do we fill that gap up to $15.76? GL everyone
AMEX:JNUGLong
by SalN
2
Jnug to Gold Nov 11 "Preparing for launch" Daily chart WOW! what a drop! And with a pretty strong close. Huge sell volume. But my $6.35 buy order did not get filled yet. So I am going to wait. Look at the oscillators and compare them to the October 5 - 7th price action. Hints that we may hit that line at around $6.25. And the COT report cut off is this coming Tuesday so we could bounce and then drop or just drop. However, we have a possible bear flag on the 4 hours chart. Spot gold also shows more to go. I think we will get down to the 1213 range for spot Gold. There is an ascending neckline at that level. I really believe that after this upcoming nice long pop (see chart) that this is going to come crashing down like the chart shows. As a matter of fact, today Larry Edelson expressed concern about gold being able to break out. And suggested that it could create what he called a cycle inversion, sending gold down to a low in January. Hmmmm, that's what my chart has been showing for a couple of months now. Time will tell but it sure looks that way. And Gary Savage is just pissed at all this dumping. I dont blame him. I am too. I do not see us making new lows with spot gold (I'll post my chart to show you all why). It seems as though we will get down to the trend line at $1115 range by late January 2017. I am not sure if this would cause a reverse spilt for Jnug or not. Maybe we will just get down to a price under $4 by then and start this real bull push all over again. You see, we are either in a large corrective wave 2 or more likely (IMO) in B of the ABC correction. Think about it for a sec. We are just coming out of a long bear market. Isn't there supposed to be the ABC correction? I say yes. This would also explain why soooo many senior analysts are guessing wrong as of late, about gold. If this is an ABC flat correction, then we would come down to near the bottom from 2015. Make sense? So stick with folks. Stay focused and don't get tooo discouraged if you took in in the shorts like so many have. After all. WE HAVNT SEEN NOTHING YET! I'll post the spot gold chart next. On a side note, it's not looking like we will make it up to the $22 range again this year. Also, Ill be expecting some nice gap ups once this thing turns around. And I don't this they will be break away gaps.
AMEX:JNUGLong
by SalN
Jnug to Gold Presidential ElectionDaily Chart If Trump wins tomorrow, (and I have this strange feeling he will), then gold should shoot up in a similar price action pattern like the June Brexit. It will probably gap way up, maybe even fill the gap, and then pull back to the bottom of the channel by the end of the week only to climb for the rest of the month into December. If Hillary wins, then Gold will probably tank down to the $6.25 support range before we can see a reversal.
AMEX:JNUG
by SalN
4
Jnug to Gold Oct 28thDaily chart So just as I thought, a huge huge GDP report. And no I am not one of those people that thinks that it was priced in or anticipated to be a good report. If you follow along with stock twits, almost everyone (sentiment) was thinking that there was no way we could get up to even the forecasted 2.5%. But 2.9% is really a surprise. Yet we went on a roller coaster throughout the day. Take a look at your own gold chart and compare it to the miners. Now tell me, do you really feel this is Bullish for the miners. I don’t. The miners (Jnug) was starting to tank not too long after open. The only thing that could be argued that saved it was the Hilary Clinton FBI emails announcement. Even though gold went up quite a bit for most of the day, miners did not make a higher high and closed weak. That, in my opinion is a big red flag. (It has been said over and over that the miners lead the price direction for gold). Also, gold did drop back down to the 1275 level at the end of the day. I think follow through from the great GDP report is coming on Monday and Tuesday. On the weekly, we sure look like we are possibly making a bear flag. So obviously don’t allow yourselves to be biased. Monday and Tuesday will tell the tale. My take is that we are just starting to move down into the 5th wave of our C correction. This does not mean that it can’t stop right at the trend line and then turn up. But with a phony huge GDP jump, I think the pressure to gold miners will be too great until the FOMC rate decision comes and goes. I think we go down until that decision and then a nice hard rally for a couple weeks. Another thing that should be noted is that we haven’t really had that huge green volume day with follow though yet. As far as Technical indicators, I really like to use the Willaims R. I modified it to 13 and 18 because those two levels have been very reliable forecasting ‘the’ big moves. I also modified the RSI. I will post charts with both modifications so you can check it out for yourself. When both are either oversold or overbought at those levels, it has been very reliable that a big move is near. So it currently shows that its still moving down with a little more to go. That’s just one of the many things I use. It has been said that October is the most volatile month. I would say they are correct. It is very difficult to trade medium term with this kind of price action. However, if I am correct about this being the start of the 5th wave down, then this 4th wave fits perfectly I would say. It is a shallow correction, complicated, and has been an all around pain in the ass. Cyclically speaking, we are getting near the end of the cycle. This also suggests that we need to move down further. I think for miners, the cycle will bottom on the 2nd. With no rate hike, Jnug and gold should pop. Then there is the election. I have this strange feeling that Trump will somehow win and then that will provide another much bigger pop. (just look at what happened today when this new email stuff came out). Then I think this next cycle will be stretched a bit due to the rate hike date on December 14th. So that’s about it. Short and sweet this weekend. As always, if I have forgotten anything, then I will update it later.
AMEX:JNUGShort
by SalN
2
Buy Gold, Not Miners - GDX DailyThere's a lot of flags right now being raised on miners. Even though gold has slowly crept up from its recent fall, miners on the other hand have not correlated with gold which should be seen as a red flag that the correction is not over. Also the nearing of the death cross should be taken seriously. With that being said, my bullish bias is telling me that bottom is probably near. I think we will see another MACD crossover (low) and RSI fall before we start the next bull run. Of course I'm not confident enough to short miners at this point as volatility has started to creep up into the markets as we near the american election, and that means TA can be negated quickly. I will be watching this closely of course. It was fun day trading it today, and that's what I expect most people will be doing leading up to the election.
AMEX:GDX
by xsubtownerx
2
Jnug to Gold Oct 27thThis just in!! If true, be careful tomorrow!! King World News just reported that an associate of George Soros leaked info that the US GDP data tomorrow is going to be slightly better than the forecast. The forecast is for GDP to have risen up to an astounding 2.5% from 1.4%. I think that would be a huge jump. But KWN reported that it would come in at a manufactured 2.6%. WHY!? Because they want a great number before the election to help Hilary Clinton win. I am sure it is both sides that want this. A Number that big would tank gold until the November non rate hike at the very least. So I drew a price target with a red arrow of where I think it could go if the report is correct. Otherwise, a miss would give us a short term pop. Either way, be ready! The report is set to come out at 5:30 AM.
AMEX:JNUG
by SalN
1
Jnug to Gold Mid October 20161 Day Chart Are we about to start wave 5? I say yes and I am excited for it. If wave 5 is the same or bigger (as I have heard some analysts say for commodities) than wave 3, then I have worked out two possible price targets to reach probably Tuesday or Wednesday. A 100% Fib gain of wave 3 is approx. $16.58 which is coincidently right at about a resistance line, and near a down trend line (marked with the tan oval). My best case scenario price target is a measured move of the potential cup and handle pattern that appears to have been formed (refer to chart). The next move up (which is also wave 5) is supposed to be similar to the depth of the cup to the brim. So I drew a pink vertical line to measure the depth and then move it up. The approx. price target from that measurement is $18.36 (2nd tan oval). Oh and by the way….the 2nd oval happens to be the approx. level that the 50 DMA will be by Tuesday or Wednesday. Reversion to the mean??? Lets also not forget that the upper BBands are also descending fast with the 50DMA. HMMMMM! Cot report shows a reduction even though the price went up for the most part. This suggest strength. Volume dried up during the wave 4 consolidation. So I am looking for a Volume/price push early next week. Continued
AMEX:JNUGLong
by SalN
6