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Jnug to Gold "Time for JDST next week"Gold and Jnug are following along nicely. I do not think we are finished quite yet moving up. Maybe by Monday or Tuesday and then I see a nice drop for another 1 1/2 - 3 weeks. I think the bottom will be approximately the 1220 range for Gold. SO for Jnug....I'll guess that will equte to the low $8 range. Now what should come next is a very nice rally for a couple months. In a subscription that I get from time to time...today they released their updated charts for gold. I was pleased to see that they are also looking for a bottom in gold soon. They are saying for gold to bottom around December 22nd. BUT....then they are saying that this rally will take gold to what appears to match the top for 2016 (1380's - 1400 range) before making a daily cycle correction. That top is supposed to happen around February 22nd. SO their time frame is almost the exact same as mine ...however, I am no thinking that gold will go anywhere near that high. I am looking for gold to top at the $1305 range and then start finally continue the bear market. So I will be buying JDST next week and then turning around and buying Jnug for about 2 1/2 - 3 months. Maybe.... And then I will sell to see whose opinion is correct... Mine or theirs. . Above is the 4 hour Jnug chart. Maybe a little bit more to the upside and then a hard drop. I am not sure if Jnug topped today or if this was just a messed up mini 4th wave running flat pattern. On the 2 hour chart it looks more like a 4th wave so I am leaning to one more move up by Tuesday. Gold Chart Gold Weekly Chart..... Maybe we are forming a Head and Shoulders patter.
AMEX:JNUGShort
by SalN
5
Jnug to Gold "nearly time for gold to drop into yearly cycle lowI am not going to go into depth as I have in the past. I am frustrated like many have been with the weakness in gold and with this sideways chop. This is the worst kind of market to trade. That being said, I see the yearly cycle drop about to occur after we complete the short lived minor "e" wave in the wedge that we are in. I have my price target for gold. I do not think that the Rate hike in December is going to drive gold up much at all. So if I can remind you, there was a rate hike a few months back where gold actually dropped and did not rise like it usually does. I remember saying that I was wondering if the lowering inflation combined with a rate hike would have the opposite affect to real rates and tank gold instead of the other way around and that's what happened. So I am wondering the same thing this time. This hike could be the trigger for the yearly cycle low to begin. SO now lets look at the Jnug chart. I believe that we started the new daily cycle for Jnug on the 30th and should have some upside for the next week or two. But after that, I think this thing will tank with gold into the beginning of next year. At that point it would probably be a great one to two month buy as it has been in the past with the beginning of the new yearly cycle. I am looking for the Jnug gap to fill down at $11.87 and probably bounce/bottom at $11.60 ish range. After that I will have to reassess the upside potential for Jnug. As some of you know, I have for the longest time now, been thinking that we are in a very large corrective B Wave for gold since the 2015 low. If I am correct then what comes next is the C wave down. I brought this idea up to a youtube guy named Ronnie Fatel. He disagreed at first which was over a year ago. Then as this B wave took shape over the last two years, I made the suggestion again. And low and behold he is now making videos about my idea. I kind of would have liked for him to have mentioned me but he has a business to run. You should check out his videos. They are pretty good for Elliot wave analysis. The next chart is a cleaned up GLD chart which is essentially a trading platform for gold. This chart is the one I use to show my long term idea. This chart is also much cleaner. So how low do I think gold could go. I am looking at sometime in late 2019 to 2020 for gold to bottom around the $612 range. Ronnie was guessing as low as the $400 range. The point of all this is.....if after the yearly cycle low occurs, and we get a short 1 - 2 month bounce only to start crashing, then at least you can consider my idea at that point. So lets see what happens to price in the early part of next year and go from there. You can hate my idea and have all the bias you want. But lets just wait and see what price does. In the end, that's all that matters. GL
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by SalN
7
Jnug to Gold "B wave almost finished"The B wave appears to be almost complete. I still hear a lot of pros saying that this is the surge that we have been waiting for and that we are only going higher now. We will see. That being said I do believe that we will drop into the yearly cycle low. There really isn't anything to add. My previous gold post from a couple weeks ago is still how I see it. The only thing that may have changed is the date for the bottom. It may extend into January at this point. I think in the next week or two we should see who is correct. Unfortunately Jnug was not that strong with Fridays move higher. Is that a foretelling of the impending drop? Could be. We will see. GL
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by SalN
3
Gold is running out of Steam... The Winter is coming Gold and Silver tend to follow seasonal patterns. If you have been in this market long you know this is a painful time of year for stackers and longs. Although I am a long term bull, a healthy pull back to 1260-1250 is eminent. We might climb to 1300... but we will come down. Down below if 1250 does not hold gold will fall straight through to 1235-1205. It is important to bear in mind that gold and silver are heavily shorted. There is a lot of downward pressure on precious metals. The charts can be deceiving but the trend is your friend
FX:XAUUSD
by mcgough_max
Jnug to Gold "not finished with the B wave yet?"If we are still in a triangle consolidation with everything being larger 3 wave structures, then the small b wave that we are in should not have been completed yet and we should move up to at least the 100% measured move to 1320 and possibly a little higher to the red zone. After that I really really feel that jumping into JDST or DUST is going to pay bigly. I think that gold will complete its yearly cycle low in mid to late December. I have another FIB measurement for that drop. It shows a low of 1207. I do think gold hits that very long term uptrend line. That would complete wave d. That means that the only thing left would be wave e. And after wave e then there should be a very large drop next year. ** (I understand that this is a bearish scenario and that everyone is still calling for the breakout to continue. I am not convinced. There is the slightly more bullish scenario that I am watching for that has the larger B wave for gold going up to the $1400 + range before completing the B wave. If that is going to be the case then gold really should do that move starting next week or over the next couple weeks. Otherwise its too late for this years move. And for gold to not make a higher high than the 2016 high, IS BEARISH). SO once again I am attaching the GLD chart to show my longer term view. Its a cleaner chart with less lines but you will get the point. I think that measured triangle move down for gold on this GLD chart equates to around the $980's level. And at that point I will have to reassess gold to figure out if gold will finally bottom there or make a measured move further down for the larger A wave move from 2011 to December 2015. A full 100% move for that drop would bring gold to $500. Eh..thats hard to envision right now. $612 would be would be the 78% move down for the entire gold rally of the 2000's. ......Too much wishful thinking right now in my opinion. so back to the present. Next chart ... Jnug Miners obviously have not been following gold very much this last year. I am guessing that there are opposing forces at works here which is giving us the crazy pattern that we have. I think miners is being affected by both the stock markets bullishness and gold price. (TO name a few factors). I can't and wont even try to pinpoint what is. So the arrows is what I am thinking will be Jnugs movement short term. And I do think that Jnug will drop pretty hard with gold towards the end of the year. So it appears to me that we are just about to complete a mini wave 5 down. Maybe Monday or Tuesday. I am personally going to take a chance and buy Jnug around the $16.70 range and try to play a short term bounce. maybe for a week or two. Then I would get out. I do not think it will break through the red zone $20 level. OK. Last caveat. The stock market and gold. This is really that part that is causing me grief with gold and Jnug. Will it just continue or are we going to get that 8 - 10% market correction. If we do get the correction, how is gold and Jnug going to behave through all of that? I just don't know. If the SP500 gets to around the 2600 mark then I may once again try my hand with the VIX. As for gold, I think it is safe to stay on the sidelines for a while to see what happens at the end of October or early November before resuming the gold plays. Maybe jump into ugaz (natural gas for the winter rally). Or maybe by then Oil will have topped at $54 - $56 and start its end of year drop (DWT). That's all I have for now. GL
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by SalN
9
Jnug to Gold "A little more of a drop before the bounce"For the Gold chart, I am anticipating a little more of a drop to test the blue trend long term blue downtrend line. It appears to m that we have been making a series of three wave patterns since early 2016. We may very well still be in a triangle pattern. The pink line with a pink arrow at the top of the page marks the top of both 2016 and 2017. The blue uptrend line with a blue arrow marks the long term uptrend line from the December 2015 low. If I am correct then we should be in the middle of three waves down to possibly drop back into that earlier wedge. The black uptrend line with black arrow marks this years trend line and should be broken for the end of year yearly cycle low. The FIB measurement is an approximation for the top of the bounce for this three waves (1300ish) and as you can see the 100% move down would be the uptrend line. In the longer term view this still looks like we are in this triangle and in the D wave of an ABCDE. Lets see how this plays out over the next couple weeks. I think we will get the RSI to touch the oversold level. For Jnug, maybe we will be getting something like this in the coming weeks. GL
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by SalN
1
Jnug to Gold "FOMC meeting helps the DCL"Well, it has been a long very stretched out daily cycle. And it is clear now that we are dropping into the DC low. I have drawn on my chart my approximate price target for Jnug before a bounce. I think we will hit the 100 DMA. But I am using the GDXJ chart to help me a little more. Here is the GDXJ chart zoomed out a bit And here it is zoomed in a bit. As you can see we made a big gap today. So with that said, here are my thoughts. We may bottom from this DCL tomorrow or Wednesday. I do not think that we will get that rate hike on Wed and that should create a short lived pop in both Gold and miners. (If you are wondering what happened to Jnug when they hike rate last time, just look back at June 14th and you can see that we dropped 35% in one day). So I am expecting a pop but not 35%. As you can see from the GDXJ chart, we have the 50 DMA and the weekly 100 MA overlapping. I do not think we will bust through that level unless we were to have a surprise rate hike. So when I see GDXJ hit that level and fill that gap at $34, I will sell my JDST and buy Jnug. I am taking a chance to rebuy Jnug but I feel comfortable enough to do it especially with that gap above. I should have listened to my own advice when I said I thought we bottomed for that last DCL. I should have sold my JDST and bought Jnug. Oh well. Live and learn. Another thing to keep in mind is that we are not making a right translated high for the year in miners. That is significant because a left translated high is bearish for the remainder of the year. That is ...unless you think that we are somehow going to have a huge unprecedented bullish move upward this late in the yearly cycle. The last missile launch from North Korea was ignored by the markets. The markets no longer fear that Kim is going to blow anything up. Trump is mostly ignoring him and is even mocking Kim by calling him "rocket man". And so gold dropped more. This is a very difficult gold market to say the least. We are essentially sideways which is the worst type of market to try to time the dips and peaks...as we just found out this last cycle. So I can only do the best I can for the time being until something either more bullish or bearish trends. This cycle is stretched so I adjusted my cycles below to match this DCL. Assuming this holds for the remainder of the year, I drew my arrows as I see it at this point, with the yearly cycle low due in late December to early February. I also forgot to mention that we have a bullish divergence on the RSI 14. SO a pop is in order. Lastly, if there is no rate hike on Wed, then everyone is going to feel certain that there will be a hike in December. And just like before, gold will fall until that meeting. That and the pressure of the yearly cycle low being due. These two forces combined are just too powerful. If you have any other ideas, feel free to post them as I do not claim to have all the answers.
AMEX:JNUGLong
by SalN
6
Jnug to Gold "can't ignore the breakout any longer"Today was a big deal to me. North Korea just fired a missile over Japan causing gold to spike and that is good enough for me for this breakout. So the question for those that are in JDST or Dust is how to get out. We will have a daily cycle low very soon. I expect gold to drop back down to the 1270ish area and retest that long term trend line for the end of the daily cycle. I am still estimating that to occur around September 5th or maybe a little bit after that. At that point, wherever you are , you should sell your short and buy Jnug. So even though you are down right now, we can still recover much of these losses. This breakout and next bullish push up should propel Jnug up very quickly. You will make up those losses very quickly and then some. If this is in fact the bull market for gold, then understand that there are at least 3 -4 more years of climbing to do with gold. And Jnug will climb much faster and higher than gold. Towards then end of this bull cycle, Jnug will push up much faster than it did in the 2016 run. So we will have to lick our wounds a bit and buy the dip.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by SalN
7
Jnug to Gold "This is going down"GOLD ! That was a huge let down bearish reversal candlestick on Friday with huge bearish volume. This is not breaking out this time. These banksters are wicked evil when it comes to setting everyone up to go long. But I did not fall for it. I believed in my cycles and we are just too late for a breakout rally like everyone is talking about. We will drop until around September 4th - 7th. And I do not expect it to drop below the 1230ish range before a bounce. In my opinion September is its last chance for that breakout above the 1305 range for this year. If it fails again then it will indeed drop hard into the end of the year at the least. If you zoom out you would see that the yearly cycle low is fast approaching and if gold does not make a higher high than the 2016 top then that would suggest that we are back into some sort of bearish trend. You know...lower highs. Like I said.....be cautious here folks. Patience is not such a bad thing here. You could always play this drop and then short term bounce and then wait and see what happens. But your trading is up to you not me. So GL. Jnug is also going down. I think its in a channel. So if it stays in the channel for this drop then I show the yellow ovals for my first price target around the end of the first week of September. If it breaks through that then Jnug could reach the $12.45 range. I am not sure how well this will bounce though. IT would have to get through that downtrend line and red resistance zone before heading back up to the $18 range. We will see. That's all folks. Short and sweet.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by SalN
4
Jnug to Gold "More chop ahead before a bigger drop"Before I get into it, I just wanted to say, isn't is funny how this dumped? Remember how I was saying that big green volume spikes have usually meant that Jnug was at or very near a top. Its not 100% that way but its like 95% of the time. Good thing to remember. So I have been really trying to find the cycles for Jnug. And I am bummed to say that I did not find it in time for the last bottom last month at just under $15. I wish I had made the adjustment. Oh well. I did not sell and have not lost money. So if my cycles are about right, then I think we are almost finished with the cycle for Jnug. I really do not feel that we are going to get too much more of a drop before a short term pop and then deeper drop. Maybe a couple more days down. The reason it partly to do with gold. This is only going to be a half cycle downturn for gold and that does not last long. So I have thought that Jnug may very likely follow the blue arrows. If we are lucky then we drop and follow the red arrow. There are a lot of potential channels that we could be trading in and it is hard to figure out which one we are in. But since I am expecting gold to make another try at a breakout, and fail, then I am expecting Jnug to also pop a little. Speaking of gold trying to breakout again. Gold is really running out of time for this Daily cycle to breakout. If it does not do it in the next week or two then it will probably drop pretty hard. So as far as gold, I cant see this half cycle low reaching past the 1240 mark, which is also where the 50 week MA is. Then I am expecting that pop. BUT, if it fails to breakout and if we drop to the bottom of that wedge, then that would indeed be a lower low, and I would be willing to bet that gold tanks hard. We have a double head and shoulders pattern that could play out. And if that plays out then I would expect the much larger head and shoulders to almost certainly play out. See the gold chart below I also cant get out of my head the fact that the 50 week MA is so so so close to crossing below the 200 weekly MA. Yep, that would do it. It seems like this next two weeks or so is going to tell us the future for gold. Let us also not forget that there is another Fed meeting on September 20th and with the NFP and Unemployment doing so well, I can see that meeting starting to weigh on gold in a few weeks. I do not expect the Fed to raise rates in September and so I think we will get the same reaction out of gold that we just got. A short term rally for a few days and then a drop. If in mid to late September, price is where my arrows are, then there is yet another super strong force that will start pulling gold down and that is the intermediate cycle wanting to make its low. I believe that after two long 6.25 months Intermediate cycles, I do not think that we are going to get a 3rd long one. I am expecting this one to be on the short side with a maximum duration of 5.5 months. I am kind of leaning more towards the 5.5 months. The reason is that 5.5 months would mark 12 months since the last yearly cycle low. (Yearly cycles run 12 - 14.5 months). So we either get a very short 4 month long ICL so that we can have another short ICL to hit the 14.5 month YCL. Or more likely IMO, we have a 5.5 month ICL and that would line up perfectly for another 12 month YCL. Just to give you an idea, ICL drops should have gold dropping for 3 - 5 weeks straight. So gold should roll over in November. So now you can see the urgency for gold to breakout, if its going to do it. Otherwise, this ship is going to sink and take Jnug with it. And my silver chart is not helping convince me that we are in a bull market yet either since silver and gold a somewhat moving in the same direction. Gold Volitility is at an all time low. In other words, when this breaks, don't be on the wrong side of it. I hope I did not forget anything. I will update if I remember. GL.
AMEX:JNUGShort
by SalN
23
Jnug to Gold "Breakout or Breakdown?"This is a important week and especially Fridays economic reports. I can see a case for both Bullish and Bearish gold. Being so close to that trend line again, it would seem safe to wait before making any bets. But I am still leaning bearish. One of the reasons is because of technical, but an even bigger reason is that the dollar has been dropping hard for the last several months and gold has essentially been trading sideways. With the dollar at very over sold levels right now and at strong support, I don't think it is going to drop through yet. As a matter of fact, there is a huge bullish divergence on the weekly chart for the dollar from its May 2016 low to today. see the dollar chart Nothing is guaranteed but that is significant. If the dollar bounces, it seems likely that gold will react quite a bit in a negative manner. Another factor is that golds volatility index is at its lowest since the 2011 gold top and much lower than the 2013 gold top. I am wondering if that means that a drop in gold like 2011 - 2012 or 2013 is on the table. And then there are the miners. These stocks have been trading with lower highs and not showing a lot of strength with the gold rallies. If you look at the Jnug chart, you can see that we had a little volume spike on July 26th. Looking back, when Jnug has had large green volume spikes, it has usually meant that we were at or near a top before a large drop. That does not mean that it will stay consistent, but is worth noting. Volume has been dropping off which means a big move is coming. And with the close of the DOW above 22,000 today, I am wondering if money might finally start flowing out of gold and into equities. Hard to tell at this point. But we are due for at least a half cycle drop in gold. And Jnug seems ready for the same thing. On the opposite side of the argument, gold is so close to the trend line, any significant bad news or bad economic data could be the trigger for the gold breakout. So stay alert because if you are short like me and this thing takes off, then we may have to take a loss. I hope not but we shall see. GL
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by SalN
4
Jnug to gold "I dont think we are finished dropping yet"I was on vacation out of the country for the last week so I have not been able to update anything. But there really was not much to update. So to cut to the chase, it is my feeling that we are not finished dropping yet for gold. I am expecting gold to drop into oversold on the RSI 14 and also drop below the march low before having a legitimate bounce. So lets look at todays action. Gold burst up but miners barely moved. That should raise eyebrows and signal caution if you are looking to go long. If you are dead set on going long, what would it hurt to wait a little bit for confirmation. If you are wrong, then it will hurt a lot if my opinion is correct and Gold and Jnug drop. It appears to me that Jnug is working out its wave 4 and should provide a 5th wave soon. We have a short term bounce playing out from a small bullish divergence from last week. But there is a larger hidden bearish divergence that has formed and that should be respected. And as for gold, well, I am not going to repeat myself again, but I am waiting for it to drop to the longer term trend line which is in the mid 1170's at this point. There is a large gap that formed this morning by the way. There is also that gap above. I wouldnt be surprised to see jnug fill the upper gap before dropping but I am hoping to be spared the agony of waiting any longer. I am also expecting gold to drop thanks to the breakout in the broader market. By the way, I called that. GL on your trading
AMEX:JNUGShort
by SalN
15
XAUUSD - Daily and Hourly Gold Resistance to watchGold broke out of the pink somewhat diamond to reach near the bottom of the hourly channel. Then broke thru the 1215 prior low. Areas I'm watching for possible retest are: 1215 - Previous low we broke 1220 - .618 of Friday's drop Then expecting a continuation towards 1195 at next major resistance/support and bottom of channel followed by a correction before continuing down (which is more clear the current trend). Further support at: 1195 - Channel Bottom and prior low 1170 - Large Trendline
FX:XAUUSDShort
by AlphaDreams
Jnug to Gold "Crash next week"I know I have been reading a lot about the big move in gold. And everyone has been biased bullish except for a few. I am more beaish today than I was last week. The time for the big move is next week in my opinion. I hate having to wait like this but the markets are on their own schedule. So the reason that I am into the bear camp, aside from the fact that we got rejected a few weeks ago from the false breakout like I knew we would, is that the 50 DMA is looking like it will cross the 100 DMA next July 5th or 6th. That cross means something. And the big money will show everyone what that means. This dump will be fast and swift and Miners will get taken down with it. I am of the opinion that miners will make lowers lows than last May and even get lower than last December. I really think Jnug could get down to the $8.15 range before we get a bounce. The second reason that I am bearish for the big move is that we have not competed an Intermediate cycle low. And we are way past due. There is no more time left for this to have another daily cycle. SO this is where the cycle analysis helps and guides me. As you will soon see, when I am right about this, you will not rely on just Elliot Wave or on any other single thing. You have to include cycles. If you ignore cycles then you ignore nature. Cycles happen whether we like it or not. And nature seems to find a way to put us in our place.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by SalN
14