Possible Bearish Cypher Pattern for GoldSeeing a possible cypher pattern in GOLD 60 and 240 chart , X/D line matches up nicely with a trend line started off from the last rate hike.
JDST
Gold 4h w/ Channels Short TargetsWatching 1209, watch for channel break; is short take a breather? Then let's see how deep it wants to go...
Jnug to Gold "week of the Fed" 3/11/17I almost didn't do a analysis this weekend because it seems pretty obvious to me now that Jnug is going up for the short term. Just look at the price action last week. Gold was falling but clearly Jnug was flat. I knew that it wanted to go up and towards the end of Friday afternoon, once spot gold turned around, Jnug flew. So what's next for Jnug? I think I will show two scenarios. A conservative one and a wishful thinking one that could happen as well. So the blue arrows are the conservative path that I think is very possible. As you can see, the black 10DMA is just above the closing price. And we are just below a notable resistance area (blue line $6.36). So it is very possible that Jnug drops a little to retest the breakout level into FOMC before moving higher. But then I look at spot gold, and I see a reversal candlestick that bounced off a downtrend line and think that if spot gold continues up even a little bit, and the broader markets also continues up, then we might just gap up, at least over the 10 DMA and possibly over the $6.36 area and fly up for two days to the very strong $7.75 area before slightly consolidating for a few days. Then up again.
I keep hearing everyone talking about the dollar in a head and shoulders pattern. Maybe they are correct. But the Yen doesn't look that way at all. In about two weeks we should get an idea (bearish or bullish) of where the intermediate trend is going to be headed. Gold usually rallies hard immediately after a rate hike... just like it did in December through February 2015/16 and also just like it did this December through Feb. So if gold does not rally hard...AND break out of the wedge, then that should sound the alarm bells because gold may actually make a lower low. Much lower. If gold is going to make a lower low, then this year would be its absolute bottom.
Up next my spot gold chart
Gold's Reversal to 1280-1300 rangeGold bounces here and returns tests 1280 & 1300. Gold won't break 1300 unless the drop gets stopped at 1260. Then we may see a break out in gold but I think it's unlikely.
Gold Bull Butterfly 1H TFTargets on chart. Two areas of entry. 1222 to 1217 pay attention closely.
There is a good amount of sideways action recently as we come into news and/or rate hikes. So things might not be too clear or might change direction before higher targets, I've found. Volume might be low due to this too. Weak moves that don't make higher targets spell turn-a-rounds in trending markets.
Be safe, have fun.
AB=CD pattern? A possible bearish cypher pattern?We have a dragonfly doji in the daily chart (bullish signal) when price action bounced from a key support level (low 1220s) last Friday. In the 4 hrs chart it seems that we have a AB=CD pattern. Although we are kinda late to trade the pattern, it might be wise to keep an eye on important key points (i.e. price targets of the AB=CD pattern...38.2% and 61.8% AD leg retracement). So my plan will be to find a bullish pattern to trade in a lower time frame.
There is another possible pattern, which is a bearish cypher pattern (completion at 1255.9). I think we are a bit early for that one but it would be wise to keep it in your mind.
The red rectangle is a potential reversal zone (explained in my earlier analyses).
JNUG channel and cloud analysisJNUG channels that I see (disclaimer: they could be all wrong LOL). But I do think they'll help to provide a guide. For example, if we can't stay inside of the larger sky blue channel in March, I think it's obvious that JNUG will go lower, like $5's or even $4's.
As far as the Ichimoku Cloud, we fell out of the cloud in Feb. But use the cloud to get a feel for how strong the price movement is. If we break back in soon (I think we REALLY need to), look for strong green candles inside of it to carry us up through the cloud for a breakout above it.
JNUG ready to rock? JNUG missed an opportunity for a bullish Exponential Moving Average cross up over the past couple weeks. Felt horrible for anyone (...uh...guilty) who bought in the late Jan/early Feb thinking that insane movement was THE start of another wild bull run like 2016. I've improved my average to $9.40 by buying in the $6's. Using the Fibonacci Extension Tool on the Dec 2016 swing low to the swing high, I see a very precise touch on the 0.236 Fib line on this deep retracement, and expect this to be as bad as it gets. It could touch it again (and again and again) as this crazy market (and especially miners, and especially leveraged ETF's) love to play head games with the little guy/girl to shake them out when the circumstances appear the most dire. Stay strong, be smart. Use those simple, powerful indicators to make your decisions. But don't be stubborn either. I like the indicators I've used here, and in a minute I'll post a different chart with another simple one you can use.
XAUUSD - Short IdeaIt seems if the channel line breaks 1234 -only support is 1198-1199 on daily.
Trend seems like it's not in favour of Gold either.
I would recommend waiting for a clean break with volume to confirm then short.
XAUUSD ShortTrend is fading and volume doesn't support higher prices. So far the channel is thinning as well.
This is not fancy but a simply 1 day chart.
What I have learned that trend and volume should never be overlooked.
One can scalp up and down using the channel or short everytime it hit the upper channel line since more likely for a downside.
Support seems to be at 1199.910- so that's quite a bit far.
Jnug to Gold Feb 24thSO I bet many people were wondering WTF is up with the price of JNUG if gold broke out the last two days. Well the answer is that the cycle for miners is coming to an end and there is usually a little pullback during the bullish times and a huge drop during the bearish times. *(look at miners from 11/14 to 12/08 and see what the price action did compared to spot gold which was tanking hard during that period. Miners does not always follow gold perfectly. But when it does correspond, we can get big moves like we had over the last two months) Since we are currently finishing a bullish impulse then we should continue to drop into next week. How much is the question. I put an extension on the 100DMA and 50 DMA to show where they should cross. I am hoping that price can drop to that location where they cross but at least think we could close that last gap just above it. The light green area is where I plan on selling my JDST and buying JNUG. There is always a pop in Jnug when the cycle starts. Just look at price when the cycle start on 1/27 and then again on 12/20. Evan during bearish times like on 11/14 we had a little pop. So I hoping for JNUG to fall to $8.75 range with an expected pop to $11.30. If price does not break through again then it appears it could chop sideways for a while.
The black triangles below are approximate zones where I am predicting without much certainty, that spot gold DCL should occur. I am not totally sold that we completed a DCL for spot gold yet and it may start to drop down to a decent 50% retracement or 50DMA.
I also have changed my spot gold opinion as of 2 days ago since gold has now finally broken through the zone I talked about. I will post the gold chart after this. So I am short miners for at least into next week.
Gold Hourly Waves - Pre FOMCAll is on chart. Watching "b" complete at least 50% but no more than 75% of "a". Then, if "c" is 100% of "a", I'm watching 1242 thru 1245 (depending on "b").
Note, I have the start of Minute i as my invalidation and will long. Conversely, 1217 is confirmation to the short.
Trade what you see, this is just what I am watching. Good luck.
Daily Waves w/ AlternativeAll on chart; just for review while trading. Nothing is too extended. 1.618 on wave 3 and 5. Obviously this can change as previous waves are settled upon and known.
Alternative is in Grey.
Gold - A 10-23 Day PredictionWhat will happen at the .25 fib? Will we confirm the new Bull Market? I'm not sure but i'm confident we will find out. If I were to take a guess, I would say up. Of course, my chart skills are still fresh and I most likely have it all wrong.
Jnug to Gold - Im not long yetI'll keep this short and sweet. Until spot gold break through that large green area that I put on this Spot gold chart, then it is still possible that we are in wave 4 and not in the start of the 2017 bull run. However, I am not so sure how low it could go being so so late in the cycle. I put up the possibility of a head and shoulders pattern that could develop. Also keep in mind that the Yen has also broken out of it downtrending channel last week. and it ;looks like it pushed up into a minor wave 1. So this gold push is consistant with a minor wave 2 for the Yen. I will post this chart and Jnug.
If gold breaks above that green area then I will change my outlook to very bullish.
A Perfect Bubble on the 1hrAfter last week's auction which sparked US yields to rise it was obvious that a GDP miss in Japan would fuel US yields to higher intra-day highs. $US10Y and $USDJPY are closer correlated than $DXY and $USDPY because Japan is the largest holder of US Treasuries. Keeping all this in mind tomorrow Yellen will likely pivot back to hawk triggering gold to dip back to 1210-1208 by Wed. and the miners should sell-off strongly.
Gold Hourly Minute Wave 5 Possible TargetsTargets are based on short. All on chart based on wave measurement possibilities. 1244 will invalidate current wave pattern and will post alternative. Watching price action in case it goes above wave 4.
Gold Bearish Bat on Daily Chart Lining up with EWD is short of (3) target of 1.618 Otherwise, all targets on chart in green.
See other charts for just the Elliott Waves.
Gold Elliott Waves -- 12345 or ABCAll is on chart; watching as Price Action gives a clue to direction and patterns to identify. Targets measured and showing those with options TBD.
Gold: Deep Crab Bearish within the wing of larger Bearish BatAll is on chart. Always trying to watch the bigger picture with Fibonacci.
Gold retrace, or continues or breakouts. Tonight is big.
The chart is self explanatory,
I have started taking out my long positions and accumulating shorts.
Though the bull run remains strong and just because of one candle down, it does not signal a crash.
TBH, there are a lot of reasons for gold to run hot in the past month, to me it was USD weakness that attracted the first wave of speculative buying and then shorts to cover.
This is a channel dating back to the summer. If it breaks upward I will take out my shorts.
The issue is that shorts need a strong dollar.
That has been stiffled by PBoC selling at night (PM me for details)
HP
