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Gold Short -- Hopefully a Nice ChannelA nice channel took us from the low at 1123 to 1219. Let's see if a nice channel shows us the way for part of the retrace. .236 was my confirmation of a deeper retracement. .382 (and .5) will be watched closely .618 could be a point to either exit or watch for upward retracement, if not at .382 or .5 If you missed the long in it's channel, this could be a nice chance to grab some profits. Now that it is at the top end of the channel, I'll hold longer and scalp less (ha, maybe). Targets are clear.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by AlphaDreams
Jnug to Gold Rate Hike ?? Feb 1stSo typically the miners cycle would have ended today....and maybe it did. But like I said in a earlier post, I think we may stretch this cycle out until Feb 1st. If we do have a rate hike then I am expecting a similar movement down for that day and then a sharp rise the next few days. It also appears that we may be making a zig zag pattern which started zigging today. So while I think we could go up more, I just don't think it will be a big move up. Maybe up to the 10 DMA or at least touch the $8.74 resistance line before closing at the 10DMA. In other words, we should trade sideways for the most part, on Monday and Tuesday. Then IF a rate hike does happen, it would seem highly likely that we drop to touch the 50 DMA which as you can see would also be right at about the trend line at approx. $7. And then yes, a bounce to retest the recent highs. At that point, everyone and I mean everyone is going to say (just like they have been saying) that we are going to break out and go to the moon. If that is the case then we should see a break out above that big blue down trending resistance line. Yes it can happen, but no I do not think it will yet. My chart speaks for itself for what I think will happen. I still feel that the 14.5 month cycle that I wrote about a couple weeks ago is in play. And while that is almost never perfectly 14.5 months, for the purpose of this chart, 14.5 months ends at the same time that spot gold is suppose to end its daily cycle (end of Feb/ beginning of March). A coincidence that really should not be ignored. I would like to bring up a scenario that I think could play out. Rate hike on the 1st. A swift 3 - 4 days market sell off (see my SP500 chart) which would coincide with Jnug making a strong pop. Then, the broader market would start its 5th a final wave higher until the May rate hike which would draw money out of gold and miners. And analysts will be writing about how gold is weak because the market is strong so no one needs a safe haven..ect, ect. And lets not forget about the YEN. I will post my Yen chart to show you the move it started a few days ago. the Yen appears to also be starting its 5th wave. And currently the Yen is much more inversely correlated to gold than the dollar is to gold.
AMEX:JNUGShort
by SalN
1
Jnug to Gold pullback not finished YETI just read from someone that he believes that the daily cycle for gold is finished today or tomorrow. He called it a Shallow DCL....UMMM NO. The divergences have not resolved themselves yet. And we should at least pull back to the 50 DMA for a healthy DCL. This is a half cycle that we are currently in and it is my opinion that the weight of the possible rate hike on February 1st will continue to drag gold down possibly until the decision day just like the last two times. We could do a very small one day move up but we still have room to go down in my opinion. As far as miners go. I think we have just started the pullback for miners (JNUG) DCL low which should normally end around the 26th or 27th. But this Rate hike date may also stretch the pullback until the day of as well just like before. I do think JNUG will pop briefly right after Feb 1st. I will post my chart as to what I THINK will happen in the coming week(s). Lets also not forget about the DOW breaking 20,000 and the Japanease Yen. So this week is important. WE shall see who is correct. Just have your stops in place which ever way you lean.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by SalN
1
Gold Bull or Retrace First?Is gold retracing or more bull? If it reserves here I have the charts up and you can see here in solid gold . If it continues, I'm looking for 1229. If there's a light pullback before continuing to 1229, it might not be deep. DXY bounced off a critical area too; 100.3 above 100.25 which would have signaled it falling deeper. If DXY continues to fall, gold will regain it's movement bull . Gold's 1h RSI is right at trend line . It could bounce and go higher or begin the next movement down. Will watch and see. Solid Gold: Bearish Crab 1218 GoldOutline: Bearish Deep Crab 1229
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by AlphaDreams
Jnug to GoldI am following my cycle charts. I believe that in the cycles and that Jnug will end lower than we are at this point today. I am still holding short from last week. I was hoping for a bigger drop but I am not quite sure how much of a drop we can get. Will it be big like after the election. I am leaning that way. Especially with everyone saying that Gold is going to skyrocket starting with the inauguration. Seems a little inconsistent if you ask me. Although we could possibly shoot up for a few hours just like the election night. I hope not, that would make me sick. I am just not sure, sorry.
AMEX:JNUGShort
by SalN
Gold Hidden Bearish Divergence RSIGold Daily Chart I apologize for all the lines for my gold chart. I usually don't like to post this chart because of the mess but felt it important. Take a look at the RSI below set at the default 14 for the daily. This is another reason why I believe that this is a fake out and that we still could fall until late Feb to March. What you are seeing is called a hidden bearish divergence. RSI is making higher highs as spot gold is making lower highs. Look it up (bearish divergence) for yourselves. Timing this is another story all together. Yes we could make a pop up which can really turn your stomach. And yes this does not have to play out. But divergences are important to consider. And the fact that miners is now past the half way mark for its cycle means that a correction move will begin soon. I held over the last few days placing my bet that this tanks soon. However, if this is a wave 4 then it could get sloppy before the fall. The other thing that I take into consideration is the YEN. The YEN is also in a wave four correction and started that correction on December 15th / 16th the day gold took off. The Yen is IMO more closely correlated to gold than the dollar. At least it has been lately. And I am also wondering if gold might tank after the inauguration. Just like it tanked after Trump won the election. I think this week and beginning of next will show us the way. If I am correct and gold does tank, I believe that this will be the last time we go down. It should be very very bullish for the next 5 years or so after that.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by SalN
Jnug to Gold Important InfoGold Daily Chart This is important enough to get its own post. Earlier post still applies as you will see. I was reviewing some of the materials that others have written about cycles and gold and I think I found something that could prove to be very important. Since I cant post the chart I want to reference, I would like you to google search for it on your own so you can see this persons research before continuing reading this post. So in your google search type in silverdoctors Gary Christenson and look for his June 6th article titled Major Gold Cycle Lows. Then scroll down past the Gold monthly log scale and focus on the Gold weekly cycle log chart he has created. Read the description. ........ As you can see, his analysis looks pretty darn good and that the yearly cycle is more like 14.5 months rather than 12 months. THAT BEING SAID. Gold bottomed in December 2015 on the 17th. And now you are hearing everyone say that gold has bottomed this year on DECEMBER 15th. HMMMMM. 363 days! Nope, too damn close. In my OPINION, its a trick. They are fooling us and this could very well be a great bull trap this last week and a half. You see, 14.5 months comes out to middle February to early March. And if you look at my chart, you can see that the short term and intermediate term cycles are due to bottom at that time as well. So I really feel that in the next week or two, we will see if my theory is correct, that we are only in a corrective wave 4, with a 5th wave down about to commence possibly in two to three weeks. Down to that red arrow and yellow oval. Yep, I'm looking to buy physical gold and silver, and JNUG!! when gold gets to 986 to 977 range. And that fuchia colored line just bellow the yellow oval in the bottom of the bear channel, the same one we bounced off of in December 2015. Then we really start the bull run and live happily ever after. Just for fun, I'd like to know what you guys think about this little bit of info.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by SalN
1