Get started

Jeffsuntrading

$SPX (S&P 500) vs $RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight)$SPX fell further with a loss of -1.58% last week, driven primarily by worsening Russia-Ukraine developments. Risk sentiment was further pressured by disappointing growth-stock earnings reactions and lingering concerns about a Fed policy mistake. 10 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors ended the week in negative territory. With a considerable loss of -1.58% over the week, improved posture in weekly market breath is actually observed as below; % of Stocks Above 200 DMA = 34.29% (+0.03%) % of Stocks Above 50 DMA = 35.54% (-0.14%) $SPX remains resisted by a Downtrend Line, along with its 200-day moving average. The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week remains at 4,320 level. A breach of 4,320 level would be concerning in mid-term as it would confirm the establishment of a downtrend channel (lower highs, lower lows) on $SPX.
SP:SPX
by jfsrevg
$SPX (S&P 500) vs $RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight) $SPX breached its 200-day moving average, as $SPX upward momentum faltered with a -1.90% plunge on Friday after National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan acknowledged there was a “distinct possibility” that Russia could invade Ukraine before the end of the Olympics. $SPX ended the market week with a loss of -1.82%. $SPX remains resisted by a Downtrend Line coinciding with its all time high VWAP resistance. It is worth to note further deceleration of deterioration on market technical is witnessed on US Market Net Highs/Lows, with only -65 companies for the week (comparing to -121 companies on previous week). The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week is at 4,320 level. A breach of 4,320 level would be concerning in mid-term as it would confirm the establishment of a downtrend channel (lower highs, lower lows) on $SPX. he large-cap indices struggled last week, as risk sentiment was pressured by increased rate-hike expectations and concerns over tensions between Russia and Ukraine. The S&P 500 fell -1.8%, the Nasdaq Composite fell -2.2%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -1.0%. The Russell 2000, however, rose +1.4%. Wednesday’s Fed minutes may provide a sense of how quickly policymakers want a rate-hike. The U.S. data calendar features January figures on producer prices, which will be closely watched after data last week showing consumer prices hit their highest in 40 years last month. Meanwhile, earnings season is ending, but not before a last flurry of reports. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. 1. Geopolitical tensions – Gold & Crude Wall Street’s three main indexes closed sharply lower on Friday after the White House warned that a Russian attack on Ukraine could begin any day. While stocks got hit, prices for Treasuries, the dollar and other safe-haven assets, such as gold ($GLD) rose. Crude prices also surged as the prospect of sanctions on Russia, a top producer, added to fears over already tight global supplies. Some analysts believe soaring crude prices could exacerbate already high inflation, adding to pressure on the Fed to raise rates more aggressively. 2. Geopolitical tensions – Lessons from 2014 In keeping in line with history, we could draw lessons from when Russia invaded the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Tensions intensified over February through March in 2014 with the ensuing invasion drove a brief rally in the US 10-year Treasury note from a peak of 3.03% at the end of 2013 to about 2.58% by early February before stabilising in a 2.45%–2.6% range until June. There was a similarly mild and short-lived response in stocks and at a time of many other developments. The S&P500 sold-off by under 6% from late January through early February 2014 and then went on to rally for the remainder of the year. Russia eventually got heavily sanctioned and the ruble eventually collapses and subsequently drives imported inflation much higher. That scenario in 2014–15 drove the Russian central bank to hike its key rate from 5.5% at the start of 2014 to a peak of 17% by the end of 2014. The Russian economy achieved no growth in 2014 and shrank by 2% in 2015. Nevertheless, differences to 2014 include the facts that Russia’s military build-up appears to be much larger this time than in 2014 and both Europe and the US appear to be much more supportive militarily. Whether the net effect raises risk, or lowers it given a stronger counter presence is highly uncertain. 3. FOMC With markets already pricing in a strong chance the Fed will hike rates by half a percentage point at its upcoming March meeting, Wednesday’s minutes from the Fed’s January meeting, will be scrutinized for any indications on how big a move officials are contemplating. Last month Fed Chair Jerome Powell flagged a March lift-off and said there was “quite a bit of room” to raise interest rates without threatening the recovery in the labor market. Last Thursday Bullard said in the light of the latest CPI reading he now wants a full percentage point of interest rate hikes over the next three Fed meetings. On Friday, Goldman Sachs said it now expects seven quarter percentage point rate hikes this year, up from its previous forecast of five, as it updated its forecast following Thursday’s U.S. CPI data. 4. Earnings Earnings season is drawing to a close, but this week will see a big flurry of notable reports. Airbnb Inc ($ABNB) reports on Tuesday, followed by semiconductor giant NVIDIA ($NVDA) and Cisco Systems ($CSCO), which are both due to report after the close of trade on Wednesday. Deere ($DE), the world’s largest maker of farm equipment reports Friday. Retailer Walmart ($WMT), known for its everyday low pricing, reports Thursday, and is better positioned than other retailers to withstand rising price pressures. The pandemic has triggered inflation across the supply chain from labor to raw materials, forcing companies to pass higher prices onto consumers. However, many companies could still not fully offset the impact and that hit their profits.
AMEX:RSPLong
by jfsrevg
1
The Weekly Picture: $SPX vs $RSPThe earnings season enters one of its busiest phases this week with tech giants Microsoft ($MSFT), Apple ($AAPL) and Tesla ($TSLA) are due to report. Investors will be seeking reassurance from earnings result after last week’s selloff, but market volatility looks set to continue for now.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to signal that the central bank is on course to deliver its first rate hike since 2018 in March, in a bid to tackle soaring inflation. There is also data on U.S. Q4 GDP. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. 1. Earnings  Tech giants Microsoft ($MSFT), Apple ($AAPL) and Tesla ($TSLA) are among the big-name companies due to report in what will be a hectic week of earnings results, with investors looking to separate pandemic success stories from fundamentally strong companies. FAANG darling Netflix ($NFLX) tumbled over 20% on Friday, weighing on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, after it forecast new subscriber growth in the first quarter would be less than half of analysts' predictions. Microsoft, which reports Tuesday, is expected to report quarterly revenue of more than $50 billion for the first time, according to data compiled by FactSet. Tesla and Apple, reporting Wednesday and Thursday respectively, are expected to post record profits according to FactSet. Beyond tech, there are a host of other big companies reporting including 3M ($MMM), GE ($GE), IBM ($IBM), Intel ($INTC), Caterpillar ($CAT) and American Express ($AXP). Boeing ($BA), Mastercard ($MA), Visa ($V), McDonald's ($MCD), Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ), and Colgate-Palmolive ($CL) are also scheduled to report. 2. Fed to signal March rate hike Investors are looking to the Fed for more clarity on the future path of interest rates after data last week showed U.S. inflation rising to near forty-year highs. Jerome Powell is expected to indicate that the Fed will wind up its bond purchasing stimulus program on schedule at its March meeting and raise interest rates by a quarter point from current levels close to zero at the same meeting. With markets already pricing in roughly four rate hikes this year investors will also be focusing on what the Fed says about its almost $9 trillion balance sheet. Markets currently expect the Fed to start trimming the balance sheet later in the year as a way to tighten monetary policy. The minutes of the Fed’s December meeting indicated that officials held lengthy discussions about reducing bond holdings. Any indications that the balance sheet could be shrunk faster than in the past could extend the selloff in Treasuries and tech shares. Key Economic Calendar (Weekly) On Thursday the U.S. is to release advance data on fourth quarter gross domestic product with economists expecting annualized growth of 5.3%. Expectations have been pared back in recent weeks as rising coronavirus cases, driven by the Omicron variant hit economic activity. All times listed are EST Monday 3:30: Germany – Manufacturing PMI: seen to retreat to 57.0 from 57.4. Wednesday 14:00: US – Fed Interest Rate Decision 14:30: US – FOMC Press Conference Thursday 8:30: US – GDP: anticipated to have more than doubled, to 5.3% from 2.3%. Top 3 Leading and Lagging Sectors (Weekly) 1. $XLE (Energy) -0.92% 2. $XLP (Consumer Staples) -1.21% 3. $XLU (Utilities) -1.49% Benchmark: $SPY -5.72% 1. $XLY (Consumer Discretionary) -8.62% 2. $XLF (Financial) -7.42% 3. $XLB (Materials) -6.16% Market Breath (Weekly) % of Stocks Above 200 DMA = 31.30% (-28.90%) % of Stocks Above 50 DMA = 22.20% (-47.16%)  Market Technicals (Distribution Cycle Count: Day 6) $SPX (S&P 500) vs $RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight) – (Net High/Low -688) Markets look set to remain turbulent in the coming week with investors focused on the Fed and earnings. In a continuation of the tech selloff that has pushed the Nasdaq into correction territory, Wall Street’s main indexes closed sharply lower last week. The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq posted their largest weekly percentage declines since the start of the pandemic in March 2020. $SPX further declined -5.68%, after breaching the 4,610 support highlighted last week. $SPX is now trading below all major moving averages, the first time since March 2020. The $SPX Net High/Lows also affirmed the bearish theme with further deterioration of -688 companies within its constituents, similarly the lowest level since March 2020. Till date, $SPX have corrected -8.73% from its high (4th January 2022). $RSP have corrected -6.81% from its high (5th January 2022).  With $RSP trading at its highest daily sessional volume on Friday (since 2004), we are likely to see a bounce off 200MA for the indexes this week, if $RSP could hold its Friday low of $152.82. The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week is at 4,330 level, the previous major low established in $SPX during October 2021.
AMEX:RSPLong
by jfsrevg
4