American Airlines AAL approaching an important level AAL is on a 30 minute chart. It had a big downtrend for the first week of the month and then
consolidated in a tight range and then a retracment trend up. Price has reached the top
of the high volume area of the volme profile. It is near to the standard Fibonacci retracement
zone tooled onto the chart. This zone from above rejected price on March 7 and 8.
AAL has had news of late about baggage problems but then came the news about an agreement
about expansion and remodeling at O'Hare in Chicago. I will watch AAL here, it make
break through the zone and then rise as much as 5%. However, it could be rejected and
5% into its support based out during the consolidation.
JETS
UAL Falling Wedge Pattern SHORT from the Resistance TrendlineUAL is looking to fall 10% from the upper resistance trendline as the summer travel season
comes to a close. Shorting UAL with a put option in the money expiring in one month. Current
trend shows traders are not impressed by earnings without corresponding revenue support.
Analysts will likely soon proclaim a downgrade.
GE Aerospace Needs to CorrectAfter many years of struggle due to the Banking Debacle of 2008, this venerable old company is finally showing strength again. Spinning off divisions to focus on and drive growth in the key businesses was exactly what was needed.
NYSE:GE Aerospace is over-speculated now. The run up from the heavy accumulation during the last half of 2023 is too steep to sustain. Smaller funds have been driving it upward since March, causing the more volatile action recently.
It had a small gap up on earnings this week but it still needs to correct, either down or sideways . It has the look of a stock with short-term topping risk at the moment, but extended sideways action could adjust out the overextended uptrend instead.
LUV and Attendants love the Settlement LONGLUV on a 120 minute chart fell heavily on news of a looming strike by flight attendants 18 %
into a bear flag and support followed by a narrow range consolidation and a volatility
squeeze which broke on news of the settlement. I LUV Sowthwest and its travel mileage perks
and open seating. The NR7 indicator on watch was firing continuously. I am taking a long trade
here and now with adds at any dips found moving foward. It is hard to pass by an 18% sale.
This will be profitable and will subsidize travel on LUV.
JETS, a travel ETF rising summer travel season approaches LONGJETS on the reliable daily chart is in trend up since last fall which followed a trend down
during the spring and summer. Travel stocks are booming here and there including TCOM
(Trips.com) in China. The airlines have high volumes and are competing on price and perks.
So are the cruise lines. This ETF is a way to capture some profit from the trends. If has lower
risk but also lower reward than an individual stock JETS is upside range bound by the
second upper VWAP line above it. The predictive algorithm of Luxalgo forecasts a rise
to about 22 before that VWAP line rejects price into a reversal. I am shorts JETS while also
shorting NCLH and going long on AAL. I expect to profit and use funds for some more
frequent travel. The karma in the whole thing is that it is a closed circle. Watch travel
companies including booking agents, spent money traveling get insights and then deploy
capital to work those markets for profit returns to recycle the funds into more travel.
LONG AIRLINES ACDVF, AC, JETS, AAL, DALTSX:AC Technical and Fundamental Reasons for going Long AC Air Canada, and AAL and JETS and DAL:
We are in a tightening 3 Month range in all airline names (And even in broader markets)
Given how we have come straight down from the highs, a multi week bounce with legs is likely and positioning in here would be a strong Risk / Reward entry.
While DXY the dollar is set for monthly consolidation along with oil (Despite the knee jerk reaction to Israel which will likely fade. Markets are holding up well and have priced in peak rates with yields all coming down sharply after capitulating last week.
While DXY OIL and Yields drop.
Airlines are huge laggards (and after good selling and bad news being well priced in) it is time for major bounces. It is a highly volatile sector so a big drop the way it did warrants a big pop.
With capitulation following analyst downgrades, and company outlook drops to adjust estimates for rising fuel costs and labor costs. The discounts of this bad news is very well priced in and has capitulated with huge volume climaxes Monday after the Israel situation over the weekend.
As with 9/11 and Russia invasion, the knee jerk reaction last about a week, before the entire dip is re bought up. Assuming no escalation in Iran to push oil even higher, airlines will care most about earnings and forward guidance to see demand outlook for Q4 and 2024 company guidance.
With DAL reporting Thursday and more coming in next few weeks, I'd expect that the reported results for Q3 are very strong, and more importantly that Q4 and 2024 outlooks won't be as bad as markets are pricing. Resulting in a swift 10-15% bounce on many airline names.
Again: The bad news is very well priced in, and markets will begin to find good value for entrance pre earnings and post earnings as we are very oversold and surprised to the upside with earnings that weren't even close to as bad as markets are expecting as well as strong forward guidance.
NASDAQ:AAL
TSX:AC
AMEX:JETS
NYSE:DAL
AAL - airlines are beat upAirlines have been decimated especially when you factor in the price of oil climbing over the last few weeks.
Margins being squeezed each day!
Long term support is being tagged in a very oversold 8 week selloff.
This could be a good R/R set up on the long side for a quick technical bounce.
Hawaiian Airlines HA Reversal LongHA is on a 30 minute- chart. A Head and Shoulder pattern is drawn. It is assymetrical with
an ascending neckline extension. An anchored VWAP is added. Price is currently in the
deeply oversold zone near to the -2 standard aWVAP line. I see buyers and money flow
coming in at this level. The stop loss is 9. The first target is at 10.7 and so about 15% upside
in the area of the mean VWAP. The second target is the confluence of the July 10 pivot ,
the ascending neckline of the pattern and 2 deviations above aVWAP ( the thinnest red
line) at the area 12.5. This is about 35% upside. I will take this swing long trade and
investigate a suitable call option as well.
UAL United Airlines Pre Earnings LONGUAL has been in a persistent trend up for a couple of months after great earnings were reported
in early May with another due on July 19th. The airports have been quite busy with vacation
travel and UAL has been part of that action. On the 1H chart, price has been supported by
the mean VWAP and has oscillated to the one standard deviation line above that. I see a target
as 56.80 where the the second deviation lines above the mean aVWAP while placing a stop loss
just under the blue line of one STD above VWAP. The price is below the POC line of the volume
profile which should act as a magnet pulling the price higher. The MACD indicator shows 4
the lines in parallel and above the zero horizontal line with a positive histogram. The relative
volatility indicator shows sufficient volatility to support momentum trading.
I will take a long trade going into earnings. I will do this with ten call options contracts
with a strike at $57 expiring on July 21st. On the last trading day, this contract had
a low of $ 0.95 and a high of $1.32 for a range of 35% in a single day. I expect similar
price action as the earnings date approaches. I expect to pay about $1320 for ten contracts
and the profit expectation is 100% over the next 10 trading days.
JETS - Long term play for IRA accounts
Breaking out of the trendline on a decent volume.
Needs more push to clear the overhead supply and test 24. I think a pullback there and breakout would set this long term.
Note: these are 3 Day charts, so my confidence and comfort level is higher. Regardless stop has to be respected.
Disclaimer: Started a position today. Will add as long as 11 EMA is held.
The benefits of JETSWith all of the various airlines having such similar patterns of movement JETS lets you be able to not get the same risk of the higher volatility that comes with holding each airline individually. With that being said there is less spikes in price action here which can also provide a more stable trading environment. When I look at the ETF JETS I have a general more bullish bias over long term as I believe travel trends will only increase in the next coming months with summer starting up now, we can expect to see those revenues reported by end of Q3.
ERJ Short - Exceeded TargetERJ recently announced their earning reports which showed to be much more negative than expected. Even as price started reaching up towards the 2.618 fib level we start to see selling volume pick up. Initially I was just aiming to look at the 10% retraction but we saw that just before earning report. We are seeing continued negative push starting the week to the next floor. The next major level to look at will be right around 12.75 price target based on the negative news and current market conditions for ERJ.
AAL LONG American AirlinesAAL is shown here on a one hour chart with anchored VWAP bands shown.
The anchoring is set for the beginning of the year. Based on the price action
drawn in are support and resistance zones. When price is one or more standard
deviations below the mean VWAP, the stock is undervalued and institutional buyers will
set buy orders. ( Short sellers will close there position to provide shares to
the buyers and take their profit off the table
(When the price is one or more standard deviations above the mean
VWAP, the stock is overvalued. Institutional sellers will sell their shares ( either
shares at a profit or short sell )
At present price, action has retreated to the upper part of the support zone.
AAL is getting to a buying point.
The relative volume indicator shows huge increases in volume compared with the
rolling average volume of the past 50 days. Essentially current volume is 10X
that average meaning there is extreme interest in this stock and great liquidity.
Fundamentally, AAL has had two prior quarters of earnings reports and the upcoming
earnings could be fueling volatility and potential price surge.
I see this as reversal setup for great entry for a 45-60 DTE call option at or in the money or a
long swing trade targetting just below the resistance zone or one standard deviation
above the VWAP.
Widow Makers Airline Stocks Beat the Market by the New YearSince the beginning of the new year, airline stocks have performed exceptionally well despite the very chaotic condition of the US airspace and travel market. Here is the year-to-date performance of a few well-known airline stocks, along with the Boeing stock and the U.S. Global Jets ETF:
● U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS): +18.56%
● United Airlines (UAL): +37.53%. Zacks EPS estimation: 2.07. Earning release: 1/17/23.
● American Airlines (AAL): +33.62%. Zacks EPS estimation: 0.60. Earning release: 1/26/23.
● JetBlue Airways (JBLU): +26.40%. Zacks EPS estimation: 0.17. Earning release: 1/26/23.
● Alaska Air (ALK): +18.16%. Zacks EPS Est. 0.88. Earning release: 1/26/23.
● Delta Air Lines (DAL): +16.31%. Reported EPS: 1.48 vs 1.29 estimated.
● Southwest Airlines (LUV): +13.15%. Zacks EPS estimation: 0.25. Earning release: 1/17/23.
● Spirit Airlines (SAVE): +6.83%. Zacks EPS estimation: 0.04. Earning release: 2/6/23.
● Boeing (BA): +10.01%. Zacks EPS estimation: 0.29. Earning release: 1/25/23.
● S&P 500: +4.60%
5/4/22 DALDelta Air Lines, Inc. ( NYSE:DAL )
Sector: Transportation (Airlines)
Market Capitalization: $28.111B
Current Price: $43.85
Breakout price: $44.75
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $43.50-$41.20
Price Target: $47.00-$48.70(1st), $51.80-$52.70 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 37-39d (1st), 86-89d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $DAL 6/17/22 45c, $DAL 9/16/22 45c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.93/contract, $4.09/contract
Do You Enjoy Taking Flights On Jets?Do you enjoy taking flights on Jets?
Let's take a trip...together if you will.
Name and Ticker-U.S. Global Jets ETF AMEX:JETS
I've identified a cup and handle pattern on the jet. Perhaps, it will take off or maybe it won't. My prediction is that we will take this flight together.
Where is the confluence? Multiple touches on the 200MA (please see the daily chart ).
What locations (price targets) are possibilities on our itinerary? Minimum move of 1.87 above our handle (or runway if you're onboard this flight) and a maximum of 3.87 above the handle (3.87 includes the cup and handle sizes).
*Special note- Please be mindful that our "JETS" may be grounded if we break below the handle or channel.
Peace & Prosperity,
Al
$JETS to fall to $15 or lowerAs you can see from the chart, price has been consolidating in this channel. After this last rejection trying to break out above the channel, I think it sets up JETS for a move much lower.
I think we're likely to see $JETS break down out of the channel over the coming weeks and find support below the channel at $15 as the first target, but potentially lower if that first support can't hold.
Let's see what happens from here.
DIS TO $180. $130, $125, $115 support Dis approaching support level $130, $125, $115. Im buying at these levels for long with a target of $180. Disney will see COVID relief rally and economy recovery. This market may take years to see the effects of further rate increase.
Debt is questionable, don’t ask questions
This is not financial advice. It’s only is for entertainment.
Technical analysis update: JETS (8th February 2022)The airlines sector has been strongly impacted during the Covid 19 crisis which resulted in slump of most aviation related stocks. Over the past two years, this sector has been lagging behind the rest of the economy as a result of persisting lockdowns, travel restrictions and other health related mandates. Although, some countries such as Italy, Great Britain, Denmark, Norway and Switzerland are already seeing restrictions on social life being eased. We expect this phenomenon to continue globally and strengthen over time as the Omicron variant poses lower health risk when compared to previous strains of the virus. We view this as a very positive development for the airline sector and as one that will bring air travel back to life over time. Additionally, we think this will act as a catalyst which will result in a revival of the bullish trend. At the moment, the JETS ETF remains approximately 36% below its all time high value which is attractive pricing in our opinion. Further, we are becoming increasingly bullish on the JETS ETF; because of that we would like to set a short-term price target to 23 USD and medium-term price target to 25 USD. Additionally, we would like to set a long-term price target to 30 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration above shows the weekly chart of combined market cap of AAL+DAL+LUV+BA. It is 45% below its all time high value from February 2019.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration above shows the weekly chart of combined market cap of LHA+AF+RYAAY. It is approximately 17% below its all time high value from November 2017.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is bullish. MACD is due to perform a bullish crossover which strongly bolsters the bullish case for JETS. Stochastic is bullish too. DM+ and DM- show bullish conditions in the market. However, ADX contains low value which suggests that the prevailing trend is either neutral or very weak.
Illustration 1.03
Picture above shows the daily chart of JETS. It also shows the downward moving channel where upper bound acts as resistance and lower bound as support. We expect an eventual breakout above the resistance. Breakout setup for this trade would involve entry above the resistance and stop-loss below it.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is bullish. MACD remains in the bearish area; though, it is flat and trying to turn to the upside. Stochastic is neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish with ADX showing presence of weak or neutral trend.
Support and resistance
Resistance 1 lies at 22.94 USD and Resistance 2 at 25.20 USD. Resistance 3 sits at 28.98 USD. Support 1 can be found at 19.28 USD.
Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.