Technical analysis update: JETS (8th February 2022)The airlines sector has been strongly impacted during the Covid 19 crisis which resulted in slump of most aviation related stocks. Over the past two years, this sector has been lagging behind the rest of the economy as a result of persisting lockdowns, travel restrictions and other health related mandates. Although, some countries such as Italy, Great Britain, Denmark, Norway and Switzerland are already seeing restrictions on social life being eased. We expect this phenomenon to continue globally and strengthen over time as the Omicron variant poses lower health risk when compared to previous strains of the virus. We view this as a very positive development for the airline sector and as one that will bring air travel back to life over time. Additionally, we think this will act as a catalyst which will result in a revival of the bullish trend. At the moment, the JETS ETF remains approximately 36% below its all time high value which is attractive pricing in our opinion. Further, we are becoming increasingly bullish on the JETS ETF; because of that we would like to set a short-term price target to 23 USD and medium-term price target to 25 USD. Additionally, we would like to set a long-term price target to 30 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration above shows the weekly chart of combined market cap of AAL+DAL+LUV+BA. It is 45% below its all time high value from February 2019.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration above shows the weekly chart of combined market cap of LHA+AF+RYAAY. It is approximately 17% below its all time high value from November 2017.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is bullish. MACD is due to perform a bullish crossover which strongly bolsters the bullish case for JETS. Stochastic is bullish too. DM+ and DM- show bullish conditions in the market. However, ADX contains low value which suggests that the prevailing trend is either neutral or very weak.
Illustration 1.03
Picture above shows the daily chart of JETS. It also shows the downward moving channel where upper bound acts as resistance and lower bound as support. We expect an eventual breakout above the resistance. Breakout setup for this trade would involve entry above the resistance and stop-loss below it.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is bullish. MACD remains in the bearish area; though, it is flat and trying to turn to the upside. Stochastic is neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish with ADX showing presence of weak or neutral trend.
Support and resistance
Resistance 1 lies at 22.94 USD and Resistance 2 at 25.20 USD. Resistance 3 sits at 28.98 USD. Support 1 can be found at 19.28 USD.
Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
JETS
Rolling: JETS December 17th 23 Short Straddle to January 21st... and selling the 19/27 long straddle aspect for an .86 credit total.
Comments: This originally started as a 19/23/23/27 iron fly, for which I received a 1.86 credit. (See Post Below). I closed out the longs for a .42 credit and then rolled to naked "as is" to the January 21st monthly for a .44 credit with the net delta of the position now being bullish (since my assumption is that this recovers at some point). Total credits collected of 2.72.
$AAWW: Flying SoloAAWW continues to benefit while $JETS and stocks like $SNCY continue to push new lows, if you are looking for airline exposure I do believe you will see the best return here compared to the broader sector. Good luck traders!
$JETS Weekly MACD CrossJETS weekly from a technical perspective has bullish momentum with QQE buy signals and MACD curling.
Bullish on the weekly close above 21EMA and in a nice volume gap with room up to 26/27 supply zones.
From an options flow perspective, there was a buyer of the 11/19 21C for $2M in premium. I followed and am currently up +77% and still holding with $26PT
If you're not long, I think an idea would be to swing calls for the move up to $26.
JETS ETF - coming off the base Nice clean break of the base - travel sector looks to be gaining some momentum back. Loaded up some calls with a few short term targets between the mid 20s. Weekly looks good too.
The U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) provides investors access to the global airline industry, including airline operators and manufacturers from all over the world.
9/26/21 JETSU.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS)
Sector: Transportation, Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds (Airlines)
Current Price: $24.29
Breakout price trigger: $24.25 (hold above)
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $24.25-23.25
Price Target: $25.00-$25.50 (1st), $27.00-$27.80 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 21-23d (1st), 116-124d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $JETS 10/15/21 24c, $JETS 1/21/21 27c
Trade price as of publish date: $0.85/cnt, $0.78/cnt
JETS ETF Bullish inclined Naked Puts 10 Sep Expiry (Sep Track 2)This is the first month I'm breaking up my trades into 2 tracks to spread risk and provide myself with more room to navigate depending on the market situation.
I'm back bullish in JETS as it seems like the US is taking the virus in it's stride, even with Delta cases rising fast. Any virus precautions and restrictions while limiting are not new to business owners or consumers. Leisure and hospitality as an industry is opening up fast, Increasing pay and benefits to lure people back.
As more people get vaccinated and business returns, I think we should experience a jolt of green in this sector.
Sold 250 Puts @ 0.21 Strike 20
% to Strike is 13% from entry
ATR percentile is a high so I think we are at a pretty decent price
Rising RSI, tied to an uptrend of lower highs
Total BP Block: 50K
Closing (IRA): JETS March 18th '22/October 15th 24 LCD... for a 7.63 credit/contract.
Comments: With max profit in the diagonal around the width of the spread (8.00), closing it here rather than waiting another 21 days for the remaining extrinsic to bleed out and/or risking that price returns to below 24. My cost basis was 6.49/contract (See Post Below). Closing it here results in a realized gain of 1.14 ($114)/contract, an ROC of 14.25% as a function of the spread width. I'll look to re-up if we get any weakness back to ~22. Otherwise, I'm still in UAL covered calls as my airline "reopening" trade.
* -- Long call diagonal.
Rolling (IRA): JETS September 17th 24 Short Call to October 15th... for a .36/contract credit.
Comments: This is the short leg of a long call diagonal, the long leg of which is out in March of '22. (See Post Below). There isn't a ton of extrinsic left in the September 17th 24, so rolling it here. Cost basis in the setup is now 6.85/contract - .36 = 6.49 with a break even at 22.49. I'm hanging out for a decisive break of 24 at some point ... .
The Boeing (BA) Company to $240, $280, $300 and why Boeing (BA) has a Cup and Handle forming on the daily. It is also approaching the bottom of a 1 year and 5 month old Trendline. This Trendline’s lows originated during the COVID-19 March lows. I believe this is the strongest support for BA. This same trendline has acted as support in the past several times.
Potential targets drawn for your viewing. Explained in more detail and why $300:
Potential targets with this bounce with the bullish Cup and Handle and 1 year 5 month old Trendline Support: $240 (past resistance), $260 (past resistance) and $280 (past resistance. If we break through $280 we could run to $300. $300 is the old support back in a big dip in 2019, could actually as resistance. At 225 purchase price and 300 sell price this poses a 33.3%+ ROI.
Fundamentally, vaccines are being released and our expert scientists are figuring things out.
TECHNICAL: BA looks incredible on a Technical Level with the Bullish Cup and Handle, and Trendline Support (the bottom of this trend originated in March lows).
FUNDAMENTAL: BA is in an incredible spot if you believe these vaccines will have a positive impact on the travel industry. I believe Boeing’s travel outlook will weigh much more over defense concerns (now that we are out of Afghanistan). Long term, it may be a problem, but we are playing the bullish cup and handle and trendline support baby!!
Let’s go The Boeing Company!
This is in no way shape or form financial advice. This is for educational purposes only. This is also a case study. None of this is financial advice.
Opening (IRA): JETS March 18th '22 16/September 17th 24 LCD** -- long call diagonal ... for a 6.85/contract debit.
Comments: I wasn't entirely satisfied with what I would be getting paid for my go-to strategy of selling short puts in this, so doing something a little more directional here. Buying the back month 89 delta, selling the front month 37 here and paying 6.85 for an 8-wide with a max profit metric of 1.15 ($115)/contract or 16.8% ROC at max (assuming convergence of price on >$24/share). Will work it like a covered call.