Overbought Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Set To Drop 4%Johnson & Johnson has been in a bullish trend since 2009. On a few occasions through this trend, three of the technical indicators discussed below are at similar or higher levels, than they are now. These instances have resulted in short-term losses for the stock. I have also conducted further analysis based on other historical information and readings that confirm a pending drop for Johnson & Johnson which are laid out below.
When we look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 86.2704. RSI tends to determine trends, momentum, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is well overbought and it one of its highest levels ever recorded for this stock.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.3091 and the negative is at 0.5914. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The positive value is relatively high and is beginning to slow its upward movement. This slowing momentum is an additional signal the stock should turn downward soon.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 93.2126 and D value is 92.3311. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is very overbought. It cannot sit at this level much longer. Once the K value crosses below the D, the stock should begin to drop.
SPECIFIC ANALYSIS
I have created an algorithm (called SAG gauge) which signals when stocks are truly overbought and oversold. The algorithm indicates when a particular stock meets multiple criteria which culminates in an oversold or overbought alert. That signal will occur within the next few days once the stock sees two days of consecutive drops. Because this signal will go off after continued drops, now is the best time to enter a position and take greater advantage of the pending downward movement.
Upon back-testing this indicator, it has signaled overbought status 139 times dating back to 1970. Eighty percent of the time the stock drops at least 1% over the following 30 trading days after the indicator date. Seventy percent of the time, the stock drops 2% and fifty percent of the time drops 4%.
In the history of this stock, it always drops a minimum of 4.52% when the positive VI is at or above its current level at the same time the RSI is at or above its current level. This additional study requires the stochastic to be overbought as it is today too. Since this current bull began in 2008-2009, the RSI has never reached it current level. I do not like only having one data point to base projections from, however, multiple signals are at play and support a drop from the stock's current level.
The stock is also at its long-term (since 2009) resistance line. The stock has broken above this line twice before. Both times the high of the day broke above this line, while the stock always closed below it. The exact same thing has occurred today. The median drop on those occasions was 9.83% and it occurs over an average of the following 17 trading days.
The SAG, record-high RSI reading, and flirtation with the long-term resistance line all point to downward movement for JNJ. Considering the RSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the SAG gauge, the stock could drop at least 5% over the next 31 trading days if not sooner.
JNJ
JNJ analysis nearing a peak, 3rd of a 3rd of a 5th waveThis analysis combines channelling, 200 SMA, and Elliott Wave. I noticed a breakout chart by user 'pardis,' and decided to trade the stock. Here is my own analysis of the stock after purchasing a few shares with an entry at 130.98/130.45. There was a breakout around 129, and I looked into the price history to have a better understanding of where the stock possibly is heading towards. Pardis gave an upwards prediction of going to around 139, so I am using an All or Nothing trade strategy, with the intent to use stop losses possibly around end of day, 2R, and 3R. My Elliott Wave analysis shows that there has been a long term since 2015 bullish trend going on, with the stock already in an ending 5th wave movement. The 5th wave seems to also be extended, with the current price action showing it to be in a 3rd of a 3rd wave movement. I predict that this sentiment can last throughout the summer for quite some while, before finally peaking around the levels that 'pardis' had indicated. The stock also seems to have bounced recently off near the 200 SMA during the 4th wave change. This well known stock seems to also be coinciding with some possible peaking action within the indices. As they seem to be going through some impulsive moves upwards, there will likely be a correction sooner or later.
Double Top Resistance Approaching Quickly On $JNJ.Healthcare products maker Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) is nearing a double top resistance point on the stock chart. The level is $126 and is the former all-time high on the stock from July 2016. A double top on the stock chart is a technical term that tells investors there will be heavy selling at that point. It likely will be tough for Johnson & Johnson to go higher in the near-term. Often, investors and traders will sell double tops short, profiting when the stock pulls back. That is what I will be looking to do if Johnson & Johnson hits double top this week. The stock has run too far, too fast in the last few weeks. In the last month, Johnson & Johnson is up from $111 to $124. For this historically slow moving stock, that is insane.
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JNJ @ daily @ closed last 6 trading days lower every dayThis is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
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Aaron
Johnson&Johnson seen lower in the coming weeksThere is no real change in the dominant bear trend, as prices pressure $110.00.
Stochastics and sentiment continue to weaken, highlighting further downside risks into the coming weeks.
In tandem, Healthcare is also weakening and, along with JNJ, further underperformance relative to the SP500 Index is highlighted.
JNJ- short from today's open JNJ is very strong company but recently experiencing negative rollover with very sharp negative money-flow divergence. There are also insider selling as well.
We like to short it from current level & our first target is 112.73
On the option side we are looking for Jan17- 120 put currently trading at $3.90
"You can check our detailed analysis on JNJ in the trading room/ Executive summery link here-
www.youtube.com
Time Span: 6:40"
Trade Status: Pending
DSKX Major Acquisition(NASDAQ: DSKX) – Research Report
Company Name: DS Healthcare Group Inc.
Stock Symbol: DSKX Company Website: www.dslaboratories.com
Trading at $1.53 Per Share (02/16/2016)
Currently DSKX has a very attractive valuation with high analyst ratings, hedge fund interest, strengthened management team and major upcoming catalyst. DSKX is trading at a 33M market cap while they are expected to close on a major acquisition which is expected to increase the company’s annual revenues to approximately $65 million and $10 million in EBITDA with the combined businesses from over 20 countries, 900 unique and diversified products, and a broad range of personal care categories. This acquisition fiercely scales up and expands DS Healthcare’s business operations, product portfolio and distribution network in one deal. With the deal in place, DSKX is trading well below 1x expected annual sales while in the recent years many of its competitors in the industry sold at approximately 5x sales. Nioxin, Chattem, Simple Health & Beauty just to name a few.
Several weeks ago, Frigate Ventures LP filed a SC 13G. In the filing, it appears Frigate Ventures LP owns 1,500,000 shares of DSKX. This shows Frigate Ventures Lp’s confidence and optimism in the future of the company and as a institutional investor with an excellent track record, its safe to assume they do their homework before buying a 7.1% stake in a company.
Read the full research report using this link www.stockpicksnyc.com
Basic analysis shows JNJ is about to face strong resistanceA very basic analysis for $JNJ shows that the stock is facing a major resistance zone before earnings.
The 98-100$ zone, a strong structure that held as support during more than a year, was broken during August and now became resistance.
Add the 200 SMA line, the downtrend line and the sellers pressure that this stock will face when it will reach the psychological number of 100$ and you'll get pretty good reasons to be concern if you are still holding a bullish position in $JNJ.
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: JNJ HOLDS LONG TERM TREND, SHORT TERM RISKJNJ micro picture currently contradicts macro one.
On long term basis, JNJ has held the test of 10-year trend by falling below and then bouncing back up above the 10-year uptrend border (marked by 1st standard deviation from 10-year mean, now at 91)
On short term basis, however, price has fallen below 1st standard deviations from quarterly (66-day) and 1-year (264-day) means, signaling continued downside probability.
The downside risk remains until the price trades back up above short term risk border, marked by lower 1st standard deviation from 1-year mean (at 97 now)
Johnson & Johnson vs USDJohnson & Johnson has seen extreme price consolidation since last November. Since they are a highly diversified healthcare company, currency translations affect their bottom line quite substantially. With the recent contraction of the US Dollar, Johnson & Johnson has broken out of a prolonged trading range. If the dollar continues to contract against other foreign currencies, Johnson & Johnson will make better on their hedges and increase the bottom line substantially, thus increasing free cash flow and overall economic opportunity.
$JNJfundamentals:
from the start of 2013 to the present...
price: +49.96%
revenues: +7.42%
on the other hand, free cash flow is down from 10.105B in Q3, 2010 to 7.974B for Q2, 2014
technicals:
the monthly Williams %R hasn't been below -80 since mid-late 2010.
this is indicative of positive pressure.