This chart is frightening. It suggests that SPY can become a modern-day example of Galloping Gertie, the famous Tacoma Narrows Bridge which collapsed from nothing more than wind. I have said it before, 2022 was the year when an Equity Crash didn't actually happen, while we were all talking about it. It is but a scratch. But with a bleeding chopped-off arm, how...
This is not something I would use as a trading signal by itself, but it is a good indicator on the weekly chart of how bigger players are viewing risk appetite. High yield corporate bonds, as seen reflected in ETFs like AMEX:HYG and AMEX:JNK , are an interest data point. High yield implies that these are riskier bonds with a higher chance of default on the...
Observable for weeks now, and recently, the divergence is much more pronounced. What I am referring to are that the equity markets appear to be more and more bullish, breaking out of trendlines; while the leading indicators (TIP, TLT, JNK and inversely VXX) show an imminent deterioration, about to breakdown of trendlines. The combined US equity markets and...
AMEX:JNK is an ETF that tracks rated high-yield bonds or "junk bonds". These are the bonds rated Ba1 & BB+ by Moody's Investors Service, Inc., & Fitch Inc. respectively. The bullish divergence with the ROC is pointing out that a bottom is near. Bonds bottoming is a good sign for the market and breakout to the upside should confirm a healthy uptrend for...
Junk is one of my favorite indicators for risk assets. If junk confirms this reversal we should see a rally in stocks and crypto. Very early days. A few more weeks should show a confirmation.
A big break above 90.07 today (RED) is a significant level in the S/R playbook. A close above 90.07 sets in motion a sustained move higher.
JNK/TLT explodes. In my opinion this only can be if no recession is seen in the near future. It could also mean: TLT falls extremly fast because FED and Japan/China sell US T-Bonds at the same time in amounts which the market cannot handle at all. The cracks in the system became obvious...
Junk rally has stalled at resistance on the NFP beat. See what it does in the week ahead. Looks bearish going forward.
JNK has broken down as high yield rates rocket higher. This should lead stocks lower in the week ahead. Lets see.
JNK has had a nice rally off support. See if it holds the momentum with the Fed in strong hawkish mode.
JNK is testing key support. A failure of this level will see stocks lower also. See what happens by the end of the week.
Junk has come back to 50% retrace key level. $USD is coming off a touch. Lets see what happens. Could go either way.
Junk weekly showing heavy downside momentum but possible red inside candle. The weekly stochastic is turning from over sold. Should see support here (at least short term) before you see it in stocks. Lets see.
With the market in a funk these are the 5 signals I am watching to see how badly the market fabric is tearing.
The JNK ETF is heading further down with a big bearish Marubozu that is the YTD low -> Bearish for equities. The IWM ETF is also heading further down for a lower low with a bearish Marubozu engulfing -> Bearish for equities The DJT ETF ended on a recent low too -> Bearish for equities The VALUG has a bearish candle for more downside -> Bearish for equities The...
The Corporate bond market got extremely oversold and it bounced without the Fed having to pivot. Essentially the market got to 2013-2018 levels, and bounced nicely at the old support. But we still don't know whether the bottom is in or now, as there are more questions that need to be answered, like: Does the market expect the Fed to reverse course soon? Does the...
The JNK ETF looks like it is heading further down still -> Bearish for equities. The IWM ETF is likely to follow through after closing at a low -> Bearish for equities The DJT ETF looks a tad bearish too -> Bearish for equities The VALUG looking to fail support, with a bearish candle for more downside -> Bearish for equities The TIPS ETF continue down draft->...
As you can see on the main chart, 10y bond yields have broken above their downwards channel and are now back at their 2013-2018 highs. Based on technical analysis we don't have a confirmation that the trend has fully reversed until we get a close above 3.2%, but we are pretty close to breaking above that level too. Now we aren't only seeing the 10y yields rise, as...