The Nasdaq 100 is closely correlating to a number of Instruments - LQD UUP (DX< DXY) and TLT. JNK to a lesser degree as well. TLT has served to be the better of these corollaries. ____________________________________________________________________________________ I am waiting for a capitulation even in TLT with 10-year yields reaching 3%+ to 3.265 as the...
Junk is breaking down hard. When will stonks wake up to what is going on?
Very quickly before the market opens... The JNK ETF is heading further down for lower low -> Bearish for equities. The IWM ETF is likely to follow down continuing the candle -> Bearish for equities The DJT ETF broke support -> Bearish for equities The VALUG failed the resistance, with a bearish candle for more downside -> Bearish for equities The TIPS ETF gave...
I have Swing short signals all over the place. SMH, IYT, and XLI leading markets lower to start the Quarter here. The Russel had a real bad day today as the credit markets (junk bonds) are tanking once again. Even Energy looks to be resetting lower.
With the current global situation where there are day by day developments, the Leading Indicator panel offers similar dichotomy... The JNK ETF is heading further down -> Bearish for equities. The IWM ETF is likely to push down in a somewhat limited fashion -> Bearish for equities The DJT ETF appears to be bouncing up -> Bullish for equities The VALUG looking for...
I plot BLX (which is BTC) along with JNK/TLT ratio. JNK/TLT ratio is (Junk Bonds ETF) / (20 year bond ETF ) . This ratio can serve as an indicator, to show if the market is loving risk or loving safety on a macro level. Risk on to risk off ratio. You can see that the JNK/TLT ratio correspond with market bull & bear cycles. Notice the JNK/TLT tops form a trend...
Interesting... in the last couple of weeks, as the Leading Indicators signaled a retracement, it appears that it may be time for a technical bounce... JNK broke down as expected, and exceeded target. Last week's candle had a long tail recovery, and this current week is forming a rebound. MACD still in bear territory. IWM, DJT and VALUG all seemed to have...
Junk bonds are one of my favorite indicators for stocks. The week ahead will be critical for JNK. A solid breakdown in junk could be the catalyst to see stocks much lower. Lets see what happens.
Reviewinig the Leading Inidcator Weekly panel... The JNK has a Sell signal, retraced and may break down to a lower low target, as previously expected. Not yet happening, but with a lower high, the bias is closer to the downside. The IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) also has a Sell signal and lower high. Waiting for a lower low confirmation with a break of support. The...
Leading Indicator panel update: JNK - the topping pattern continues to play out for JNK, looking for a lower low, after the last lower high. IWM - The Russell 2000 ETF failed a breakout late last year, and is about to break down of a support given the bearish weekly candle. DJ Trans - a system Sell signal, and likely downside off the Dark Cloud Cover...
SELL or SHORT JNK ETF Rationales: Most companies will begin to facing serious troubles to payback debt service with lower FCFO and higher interest rates.
As forewarned, the Leading Indicators were previously pointing to a burn out, and now half of the leads are burnt. JNK and VALUG are bearish, as are TLT and VIX indicating bearishness. IWM, TIPS, and DJT have failed any bullish indication, skewing towards bearishness. The S&P500 futures are at support now... likely to break down, even for the beginning of a...
Looks like the S&P500 should be running out of steam soon, based on the panel of leading indicators which most are about turning. JNK just about broke down and topped out a pattern. Russell2000 and the broad market Value Line failed a breakout. VIX and TLT are about to break out. The ES futures weekly chart have indecisive candlesticks for the past two...
Idea for Credit: - Stocks had a bit of a reprieve as China's collapsing property firms were halted for 2 weeks, and China's markets had gone on holiday for Golden week. - Stock market had an unwinding of hedges last week, but are things really 'Back to Normal'? - The bond market does not think so, and seems to be presaging more drawdown to come. - EM High Yield...
The JNK/TLT ratio chart visualizes investors' position in greed and safe bonds. An increase means more greed in the market, corresponding with an increase in equities. Based on where we are, I am expecting one last run in the stock market, reaching the top of our resistance trend-line. I have added a fractal to support this thesis.
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Junk bonds look to be double topping. Could lead to some weakness in stocks coming into October. Lets see
Keep an eye on High yielding Junk bonds. A break below the all important horizontal support level @ 108.60 could be a major sign of risk off. Not only is this an important horizontal support zone technically, but it is also where we find the rising 200dma. A break below this level will be quite a negative for risk on assets