JNUG
Jnug to Gold Italy Vote WeekendDaily Chart
I think that that was a great sign on Friday, Jnug up strong even in the wake of multiple days of great economic data. We broke out of the wedge and should move up with the Italy vote. But I think we will only reach around the $8.90 range before a little pullback. Then up hard to the second oval. At the end of the week or over next weekend we might hear a ruling from the British Supreme court about there decision for the Brexit. There are some other significant events that will also be coinciding with the later part of the week into early next week. Should help move gold and Jnug up. The 50 DMA (BLUE) should meet my price target about that time. And we should peek just above it.
Hopefully we have a good couple of weeks.
Gold broke 1170 lets see the Bulls and Bears duke it out. The fight/focus area is the yellow box.
Bull will try their best to retake the new resistance of 1170.
Bears are gonna try to ride that momentum near the new support of ~1160, while also battling the dowwnard channel that has been alive for the past few days.
Safe trading!
Tick-Tock Tick-Tock - GDX Long SetupPretty straight forward long setup for miners. It's all about patience and finding the pivot point in the coming days for first entry. RSI divergence, MACD divergence and also end of C wave impulse. This could also possibly be the absolute bottom of wave 2, but we'll need a couple of weeks or so to know for sure. With that said, there's going to be (at the very least) a nice swing into December.
Keep an eye on DXY and gold for signals. Will comment with entry when the time comes.
Jnug to Gold Last week of November 20164 Hour Chart
Time for a bounce yet? I think yes. But nothing too fabulous. The oscillators need to cool off because the next drop will be big. We are way oversold with a lot of bullish divergences. I think we arein the middle or our B pattern and the Fed hike should mark the beginning of the downward C. I also think that the December 4th Italy vote cold give us a little pop but nothing like Brexit. I measured the drop for a with a purple line. (look at the chart. I copied it and then moved it to where I think our possible high for Jnug could reach (around $11.30), and then used the purple line to measure a possible C move. And as you can see, it was quite a fit right down to where I think a bottom will reach this year or early next year.
Short and sweet this time. GL
Jnug to Gold Nov 22ndIt look like we are in a wedge inside of a developing bear flag. That being said, we could visit the upper part of that bear flag tomorrow at the $9 range before the next drop. The dollar looks like it wants to at least test the top of the break out area. So be ready for a short term pop.
Jnug to Gold possible bottom at 1186Dollar Daily Chart
I wanted to start off with the Dollar chart because this week something happened. The dollar broke to new 13 year highs. And from my point of view, that changed the count for the dollar. By changing the count, I worked out as best that I could what to expect in the near term future.
First lets look at Fib #2. Fib #2 shows the 100% level of Wave #1, (which we just passed this week). What that suggests is that we are currently in Wave 3. So how high can Wave three go. My absolute top is 103.10, But I think it will end at 102.81. WHY 102.81? Because if the Wave 2 correction was a steep clean nearly 61% retracement as Fib #1 shows, then Wave 4 retracement should be a shallow 38% retracement as Fib #3 shows. Fib #3 shows 102.81 with a retracement back down to the top of the major resistance, Which is now support, which is coincidentally the 38%. Make Sense? Hope I am not confusing you.
So then what, I think we start Wave 5 with the December 14th rate hike. I marked it with a black line. Wave 5 should also take gold way down to the 1115 - 1120 level. That's my low for the end of January. Possibly turning around on Inauguration day. Fib #4 shows a 100% measurement of Wave #1 and of course it could be higher than that. So anywhere from 104.45 to 106.89.
I will follow up with Gold in a little bit. But you should get where I am going with all of this.
Jnug to GoldDollar daily chart
With the dollar making new highs today, One has to wonder if the count was wrong. If the count was wrong and we are only in wave 3, which it is starting to look like, then we could go up to 103 before correcting down to the newly made strong support. That would also make sense for an even higher wave 5 into the end of January which would correlate with my belief that gold will drop to at least 1115 to 1120.
Jnug to Gold Nov 15Daily Chart
Well so Far so Good. We still have room to run, but to how high? I measured the height of this move over the last two days. Then I extended it and it reached that resistance area up around $12.27. My thought on the issue is that tomorrow will kind of give me an idea of how the next three or four days will go. Today was very promising. The economic data this morning should have killed gold but it did not. That is very bullish. I am hoping for tomorrows data to gap us up to that first strong resistance between the $8.90 - $9.60 area. If we punch through that then I feel good about us reaching the $12.27 range. Then, As you can see, we should be due for a couple days of consolidation. I am envisioning a wedge type of trading for a couple of weeks. Not what I like to trade unless its real big swings. But based on what I am seeing, I think, IF we reach that $12.27 area by EOW or beginning of the next, then I will quickly buy into dust for about four days and then reconsider what to do. I may jump into OIL DWTI for a couple weeks at that point as the upward consolidation for oil to $48 should be over by then and the continuation down to $40 - $39.
The real question that is plaguing me is, .....when do we fill that gap up to $15.76?
GL everyone
GDX: Is the correction over in the gold mining section??There has been a near .62 correction in the recent rise earlier this year (see 2 hour chart) and price appears to have bounced up off a potential "resistance becomes support" line. On the 2 hour chart the recent down action also has reached the downside of the channel. The daily RSI shows a positive reversal followed by a bullish divergence which as I have mentioned before often precedes a reversal.
Process through your own approach. Hope this is helpful. Feedback + or - always appreciated.
XAUUSD and USDJPY inverse relationshipThis chart shows the relationship between XAUUSD and USDJPY. You will also see how gold is more volatile and the movements can become exaggerated. It is these exaggerated overbought and over sold movements of gold that make excellent short term plays.
Longer term plays should be made by studying the movement of USDJPY as it cycles through it's waves. Happy trading!
Jnug to Gold Nov 11 "Preparing for launch" Daily chart
WOW! what a drop! And with a pretty strong close. Huge sell volume. But my $6.35 buy order did not get filled yet. So I am going to wait. Look at the oscillators and compare them to the October 5 - 7th price action. Hints that we may hit that line at around $6.25. And the COT report cut off is this coming Tuesday so we could bounce and then drop or just drop. However, we have a possible bear flag on the 4 hours chart. Spot gold also shows more to go. I think we will get down to the 1213 range for spot Gold. There is an ascending neckline at that level. I really believe that after this upcoming nice long pop (see chart) that this is going to come crashing down like the chart shows. As a matter of fact, today Larry Edelson expressed concern about gold being able to break out. And suggested that it could create what he called a cycle inversion, sending gold down to a low in January. Hmmmm, that's what my chart has been showing for a couple of months now. Time will tell but it sure looks that way. And Gary Savage is just pissed at all this dumping. I dont blame him. I am too. I do not see us making new lows with spot gold (I'll post my chart to show you all why). It seems as though we will get down to the trend line at $1115 range by late January 2017. I am not sure if this would cause a reverse spilt for Jnug or not. Maybe we will just get down to a price under $4 by then and start this real bull push all over again. You see, we are either in a large corrective wave 2 or more likely (IMO) in B of the ABC correction. Think about it for a sec. We are just coming out of a long bear market. Isn't there supposed to be the ABC correction? I say yes. This would also explain why soooo many senior analysts are guessing wrong as of late, about gold. If this is an ABC flat correction, then we would come down to near the bottom from 2015. Make sense? So stick with folks. Stay focused and don't get tooo discouraged if you took in in the shorts like so many have. After all. WE HAVNT SEEN NOTHING YET!
I'll post the spot gold chart next.
On a side note, it's not looking like we will make it up to the $22 range again this year. Also, Ill be expecting some nice gap ups once this thing turns around. And I don't this they will be break away gaps.
Jnug to Gold Presidential ElectionDaily Chart
If Trump wins tomorrow, (and I have this strange feeling he will), then gold should shoot up in a similar price action pattern like the June Brexit. It will probably gap way up, maybe even fill the gap, and then pull back to the bottom of the channel by the end of the week only to climb for the rest of the month into December.
If Hillary wins, then Gold will probably tank down to the $6.25 support range before we can see a reversal.