GoldBearish, then bullish. 200 ema and sma on weekly are important. Bullish above weekly cloud though.
JNUG
Unapologetically BearishA series of events took place causing me sit back and contemplate market participants (in)sanity. First, it is known that I've was one of the first to stick my neck out and tell it how it is – the U.S. Is facing a recession in 2016 – last April. Soon after, various investment banks flirted with the potential but gave the very realistic situation very low probability of happening.
Needless to say, critics (unfortunately those that “manage” money) have come out to chastise the recession call, which is not backed up hard data but backed subjectively by a rally in equity prices. They repeat the mantra “don't fight the Fed.” Unfortunately, we've already witnessed the carnage bred from the same ignorant complacency as equity markets halve themselves twice in less than 15 years.
Secondarily, last Friday, I watched Mark Zandi, Moody's chief economist, in conjunction with CNBC reporter Steve Liesman, say that the data depicting the sad state of economic affairs was wrong and that we should simply follow the non-farm payroll numbers.
Whoa! This is a classic case of narrative over fact. But, lets look at key economic data points that have already hit cycle highs and rolled over:
Key Data Point Post-Great Recession Peak, YoY %
Non-Farm Payrolls First Quarter, 2015
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Third Quarter, 2015
Real Consumption First Quarter, 2015
Agg. Private Sector Wages & Income Fourth Quarter, 2014
Retail Sales and Food Servicess Third Quarter, 2011
Business Sales Second Quarter, 2010
Business Inventory-to-Sales Ratio First Quarter, 2016 (Cycle High)
ISM Manufacturing PMI Fourth Quarter, 2009
Additionally, all is not well in the corporate sector. Last month, market participants saw corporate profits drop 8.4%, nearly 3x more than expected and the third quarter in a row. Furthermore, profits for all of 2015 fell 5.1 percent - the largest drop since 2008. This is much higher then the .6 percent decline the year before.
Mainstream economists don't forecast a looming recession, but when have they ever? Every recession since the early 1980's began with growth above one percent. In 2007, growth expansion was at 1.87 percent, only .13 percent lower than it was in 2015.
When one steps back from market nuances and models for potential of all risks, not only does the picture become more clearer but the ability to adjust when needed becomes more simpler.
In " SPX Pullbacks Are Volumeless, Stay the Course ," I pointed out the lackluster conviction of the equity rally. This still remains the case. Those that "don't fight the Fed" will be sorely disappointed when the only volume swarms in on the elevator drop.
Notice that price action and accumulation on SPY hit a wall and appears to be pealing back:
In April 2015, I issued a 2016 recession call between Q2-Q3 for the U.S. (following my January call for 1,810 on the SPX). After being laughed at, I wonder who will have the last laugh as Atlanta Fed's GDPNow is modeling a mere .4% (with a potential to go negative) for Q1.
At 22.87x trailing 12-months earnings, equities remains extremely expensive and only have been at these levels prior to market crashes, including the market panic of 1893/96, flash crash of 1962, early 1990's recession, the Dot Com bubble and the Great Recession.
Do you feel lucky?
.... I remain unapologetically bearish.
Reiterating my 1,546 SPX target for 2017.
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Gold Miners Could Pullback Before Resumption of Trend.Gold prices have been volatile, flucuating between $1,275 and $1,220 as markets remain indecisive on what stance to take: is the Federal Reserve going to continue hiking assuming the economy will "gradually improve," or with traders continue to look for safer locations to place there cash?
According to recent capital flow data, the GLD has seen redemption as market participants choose to overlook the weakening global economy and its implications. Nevertheless, with inflows into risk ETFs like SPY and HYG, gold miners could see their shares pull back from this historic gold run.
Technically, after GDX broke out of a longer-term downtrend, price action began to oscillate within a narrow ascending channel. Prices are likely to pullback to channel and price action support of $19.80, while a confirmed break (or daily close below support), miners could fall to $18.85 and, potentially, $17.85 - also nearing the 50-day EMA.
However, if the popular mining ETFs can remain above support, price action could challenge $21.88 and $23.03.
Overall price action and trend momentum still remain rather supportive to the upside.
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Gold to $8,000?Despite what so-called gold bugs have been trying to predict for years, it still remains seen how valuable the most "hated" asset on Wall Street can be. Calls of $10- or $50,000 gold have made headlines and often laughs, but when investors take into account the supporting fundamentals, gold can be extremely beneficial during these centrally-planned economies.
Recently, Pierre Lassonde said that gold could have the potential to reach $8,000 per ounce when looking at the gold-to-Dow ratio. He mentions how tangible assets tend to regain parity after previous bull-markets, and the potential for his forecast is supported if the gold-to-Dow ratio his .5 while expressing that the quick and expansive adaptation of NIRP will fuel the fire.
As central banks continue to ease ($12.3 trillion in quantitative easing and 650 rate cuts since the financial crisis), there is a potential for a prolonged bull market in gold. As I noted in "Demand for Gold Rockets Higher ," if the renewed momentum were to match nominal gains investors seen between 2009-2011, spot prices would near $2,230 - which is not $8,000 but very respectable.
The 1.61 Fib. extension from the current multi-year low and the 2011 high is $2,460.
In " Gold Looks Promising Long Term ," I posted last February that the longer-term outlook for the yellow metal remains in tact. Price action continued to trend in the descending channel until it bottomed in December.
What strengthens the cased for renewed optimism is that price action convincingly broke out of the descending channel and back above the 2003 trend line.
In " Gold to Retest $1,130 as Dollar Strengthens ," I pointed out last March that the dollar strengthening is trouble and the velocity of such would be meaningful. As we've seen throughout last year, U.S. multinationals have been crushed due to the strength in the DXY,
I also pointed out the descending wedge on the daily chart, which is a bullish reversal pattern. After finding support where I thought the last line of defense was before $1,000 oz., gold rallied hard and broke out.
However, even through wedges are strong indicators of price reversals, the real test is that price tends to quickly retest the broken resistance. If that hold, it could be off to the races.
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Gold Intraday TechnicalsGold has pulled back slightly, but still up almost 15 percent since 2016. Traders don't believe the current rally as they look hopeful of more central bank quantitative easing, which is exactly why gold has had its run this year; and it is why I have been saying fundamentals have been strengthening for gold for roughly 16 months.
After gold volatility hit multi-year highs, it is beginning to moderate a bit. I expect it to remain elevated:
Technically, gold downside may remain limited with minor trend and price support at $1,205 and dynamic support at the 72-4H EMA nearing $1,198. Deeper support levels are seen at $1,190 and $1,177.
Volume has tapered off since the Feb. 11 high, but positive bars still remain on top. Near-term resistance can be seen at $1,214, while stronger resistance is $1,220. If gold can retake these levels, price action would challenge the recent downtrend from the recent high. At that point, bulls can look toward $1,240.
What has been beneficial is that gold has been able to work off its highly overbought level while still remaining about key support.
This Friday, traders are anticipating the US preliminary GDP print. Consensus is at a nauseating .4 percent, following Q4 .7 percent that is likely to be revised lower. Even if the prelim data meets consensus, it would be over two percent lower than the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model.
Not only is it ironic that the Federal Reserve's first rate high in seven years was in a corporate profits recession and sub-one percent growth, but it also could have been done going into a recession.
Way to go, Janet!
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NEWMONT MINING: LONGNEM is a stock I bought recently that has seen some nice gains. For fundamental reasons this stock has looked very attractive for a long time. I recent bought as technicals finally confirmed what my fundamental analysis was telling me.
You can see price broke out from channel, but found a bottom around 16.00. From there we broke short term down trend line, and broke back into the voided channel.
Price came through 100 period moving average, and is coming towards 20.00 area resistance. This level also intersects with 200 period moving average.
After a break of $20 looking for price to head to $27. Plan to be in this trade for a long haul, with a long term target well above current price.
Hey Gold, what are you up to so fast...?You've got a lot more to prove longer term as you face a resistance storm ahead, you do realise? Yes, your trend breakout is in direct correlation with negative sentiment in the main indexes so don't get too excited yet. The big money is just using you as a hedge right now.
Oh btw - Here's a study conducted by Thomas Bulkowski on trend breakout failure rates - thepatternsite.com
I trust you're probably no exception... Adios amigo, for now...
Seasonal gold correction on the way..Not much has changed since our gold correction commentary post on the 10th except that gold had spike up to $1263 on Thursday after global equities weakness and continued fears about European banks.
The fib retracements have stayed pretty much the same except now moving up a bit. For the most part, our analysis has not changed as we still anticipate a move lower from the seasonal February high into a seasonal low (March-April) of between $1130-$1150.
Of course gold could stay strong and correct only down to its 38.2% retracement level but if history is any guide, we should see a correction of at least 50 to 61.8%. When gold fired off it previous long-term buy signal on January 20th, 2009, gold immediately shot up to $1007 and by April it came all the way back down to $864.
In conjunction, gold came back down to its 37EMA which is ideal for establishing long-term positions once if prices have already moved much higher. While we will get our anticipated long-term buy signal on this coming Monday’s open, we would certainly not want to establish any leveraged positions this far away from the 8/37EMAs.
Prudence suggests to wait until prices back down to the seasonal low timeframe and anticipated price zone and we should start entering long positions in the late-March / early-April timeframe.
For more exciting and informative gold commentary, analysis and forecasts, visit www.goldvybe.com
Anyone fancy a cup of GOLD soon?Cup forming on the commodity. Needs handle/breakout confirmation for a bullish move up.
Gold Miners Run Up to Key ResistanceGold mining stocks have been trending higher, along with the overall U.S. equity market, of late. The recent support in gold prices allowed the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) a strong close last week, pushing 15 percent off the November 18 low.
Gold mining stocks really get a pass from traders, and it is still early to determine whether the move will last or not. And, this could depend largely on whether or not the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy for the first time since 2006. If the Fed does hike rates, gold prices could suffer.
Currently, GDX has been able to close around the 50 percent Fib. retracement on the October 15 high. The daily candle closed near the top of its range on strong volume. The ADX is ticking upwards with a concurrent upward movement in + DMI, and this can garner stronger upside potential.
Conversely, the GDX could see resistance at the 50 percent Fib. level, which also coincides with trend resistance (broken support). A reversal at current levels could send the mining ETF $14.20/00, while deeper price support lies at $13.38.
Further upside momentum would cause the GDX to test the larger, downside trend line between $15.50 and $15.75. If the Fed fails to hike rates in a mere week, the GDX will retest the 200-daily EMA.
Stock pickers could find undervalued gems in the mining space. Meera Shawn, Market Realist, points out that some miners have down quite well this year: Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM), up 11.2 percent; Centerra Gold (CG), up 31.2 percent and Alacer Gold (ASR), up 8.4 percent versus a 23 percent decline in GDX as a whole. It is important when choosing commodity producers to look for strong balance sheets and low operation costs. This helps producers whether pricing declines
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Model Sees 86.37 | #gold $XAU $NUGT $JNUG $AUD $CHF #elliottwaveFriends,
With recent news of $GLD from Stan Druckenmiller positioning, I decided to pass the ETF through the Predictive/Forecasting Model and other technical screening combs:
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
The "Model" suggests a higher-probability decline with the following targets:
1 - TG-Lo = 97.65 - 17 AUG 2015
and
2 - TG-Lox = 86.37 - 17 AUG 2015
Whereas, the "Watch Line = 71.30 - 17 AUG 2015" represents a timeframe conversion threshold (typically a four-fold conversion from current to higher - e.g.: M15 to H1, H1 to H4, H4 to daily, ... Weekly to Monthly).
OCCULT GEOMETRIES:
1 - NODULAR CORE
There is a high-probability resistance imposing at/near the 110.91, corresponding to a Nodule that formed over a prior historical bullish swing. This respite carved out a "nodule", whose core (i.e.: 50%) is offering a high-probability support-to-resistance level, herein defined at (119.54 + 102.28)/2 = 50% = 110.91.
2 - GEO:
The Geo is an elaboration of the Wolfe Wave, using internal geometric correspondence and rules, such that Leg 1-2 represents a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, Leg 2-3 a complex Elliott Wave TZZ, and Leg 4-5 a simple Elliott Wave ZZ, which is how the Geo defined itself - In contrast, I have left an outline of Mr. Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Wave outline in faint blue, defined by the core 5-point plot and its 1-4 Target Line.
The Geo is an important market geometry element, as it defines a high-probability target if and once price reverses from Point-5' or Point-5'', thus defining levels of Point-4 and Point-3 respectively as their assigned high-probability targets.
ELLIOTT WAVE ("EW"):
As we consider the possibility of further decline based on the Predictive/Forecasting Model, we may consider what the mechanism of decline might utilize as a technical vehicle. Here, I assume that a bearish impulse is pending, with internal compensations ("EW's Rules of Alternations") that justifies the Geo development, as simplicity of Wave-2 comes balanced by the complexity of Wave-4. Hence, one might consider that further downside consideration is justified at this time.
OVERALL: Bearish outlook based on the foreground assertion of the Predictive/Forecasting Model. A temporizing rally might occur, as drawn by the speculative dashed arrows, but bears remain in charge.
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
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Twitter:
@4xForecaster
LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
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$JNUG: High-Prob. Rally Into 23.0 | $NUGT $GLD #gold #euro $AUDFriends,
I prefer not to dwelling in lower timeframe charts (e.g.: M15, H1) simply because they are often subjected to aleatories of higher timeframes where institutional traders tend to live.
However, I have been in this one right before the splits, entering at 2.061 this past mid-December 2015, and been following this pawn either directly, or via other gold correlates.
In this particular case, I simply want to mention that, following a successful series of "Target-Hits" using the Wolfe Wave and Geo principles, there appears to be yet another opportunity at this point to consider a LONG opp, based on the attainment of an ectopic Point-5 position via its (not-so-random wandering) Point-5-prime excursion, or 5' - See chart below:
Using the Off-Set Rule of the Geo, which states that:
1 - If price rallies from Point-5, it will seek to attain 1-4 Line as its highest probability event (This is the Wolfe Wave expectation),
Whereas,
2 - If price rallies from Point-5', it will seek to attain the price level corresponding to Point-4 as its highest probability event;
and
3 - If price rallies from Point-5'', it will seek to attain the price level corresponding to Point-3 as its highest probability event.
In this particular condition, we are looking at the Geo's OffSet Rule from the perspective of a 5-prime position. Hence, the highest probability event that could ever occur here is the rallying of price to the level correspinding to Point-4, namely the 23.00/23.38 range.
Note that an earlier predictive analysis and forecasting was effected on this ETF, in which 29.16 would represent the timeframe shifting value (i.e.: the level beyond which an analysis would require a 4-fold level timeframe of consideration, as a condition of the Predictive/Forecasting Model, which defined that 29.16 target this past May 02nd 2015). This simply mean that a 4-fold consideration would bring the analysis from a H1 to a H1 x 4 = H4, or 4-hour timeframe.
OVERALL:
The background geometries are calling for a rallying into the high-probability level defined by the OffSet Rule of the Geo, whereas a foreground Predictive/Forecasting Model maintains a bullish outlook on a much larger time scale.
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
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Twitter:
@4xForecaster
LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
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Gold gogothis is probably one of my favorite chart ever that internally makes me excited.
bullish signals appear at the right timing
Gold up
market down?
Bullish Leveraged Gold ETFs Get Hammered – A Pullback Warranted?Given the large gains seen over the last two days, there could be support in the cards for leveraged minor ETFs following profit taking. NUGT, Direxion Daily Gold Miners, is the 3x leverage of the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX).
Price action is heavily to the downside, reaching support at $9.11 – forming a triple-bottom on the two-hour chart. Price visited this level on December 16 and 24, and NUGT is currently treading water. A short-term pullback is probable given the steep oversold condition, with the RSI at 16. The – DMI has ticked lower, signaling that downside could take a breather. However, the ADX is still sloping upward which is indicative of strong trend continuation.
Next, the underlying benchmark GDX is showing the same negative sentiment. The chart, in many ways, is similar to NUGT. If the gold miners ETF can rally to the targeted resistance level of $18.46, this would represent a 9.51 percent increase in NUGT, or a move to $9.98 and just shy of the $10.08 resistance level. If prices can extend to the second resistance target of $18.74, NUGT could potentially extend to $10.33.
Conversely, there is the likelihood that the intraday trend could continue lower. In this case, if GDX were to trade lower to the first support level of $17.55 then NUGT could move lower to $8.37 and break the triple-bottom support. A larger move to $17.35 would reflect a 28.5 percent loss in NUGT, causing the bearish ETF to fall to $6.48.
As always, intraday charts are vulnerable to significant volatility caused by headline risk and potential outlook is only suitable for the next few trading sessions.
See full post here: bullion.directory
Gold looking for support The 50 day simple moving average combined with the .618 retrace held as support...for now. Gold could bounce from here but if not 1200 would be a good entry point.
Pick a sidePick a Side Red or Blue.
I want to see the RED play out, but I think it will be the BLUE
What do you think???
FOMC releases placed on a $SPY chart. $DIA $NUGT $JNUG $AAPLJust a simple chart showing FOMC results on SPY.
My gold trend linesThese are just my trend lines in the chart. take a look and make your own decisions.
basic chart Gold battleground $NUGT $DUST $JNUG $JDST Gold is battling the 100 day simple moving average and a downward trend line. Volume has been decreasing which may indicate this move up is tired. IF gold breaks 1225 with decent volume, then 1240 is a given and 1250 is resistance. 2 possible trades here. 1. gold breaks below 1200, easy short to 1180 OR 2. break of 1225, easy long to 1245ish.
Hi-Prop Reversal @ 0.80821 | $XAU $AUD $USD $NUGT $Gold #forexPREDICTIVE/FORECASTING TARGET:
High-Probility Reversal at:
- TG-Lo = 0.80821 - 22 DEC 2014 = Predictive/Forecasting Model
TECHNICAL SUPPORT:
- Target comes in alignment with a historical R/S level in WEEKLY chart
- Fibonacci-paced retracement at 0.382 provides close-approximation with overhead structure at 0.86591
CHART ACTIVITY CORRELATIONS:
GOLD: $XAU, $JNUG
Note that in recent chart, a similar bullish reversal expectation has developed. A rallying in this $AUD would maintain the historical positive correlation that exists with $XAU and other gold-related ETFs - See $XAU and $JNUG charts in the links.
GEOMETRIC PATTERN:
Note also that the $AUDUSD chart (see link) has come to rest at a triple-bottom completion, following two parabolic pathway, one small followed by a larger, a pattern defined as a Bullish Kiss Of Death.
OVERALL:
AUDUSD favors a rallying at this level, based on structural significance (R/S level attainment best seen in a weekly chart), as well as corroborating technical features in positively-correlated charts, where rallying is also pending.
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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Will NUGT cross DUST in January?The average time between DUST/NUGT crosses the last 2 times is 82 bars. If that happens near the average were looking at the end of January. I think NUGT has more downside first but I would like to see 1125-1150 hold for gold and 8-8.50 hold for NUGT before getting too excited.
Potential Rallying At 1.49 | $DUST $BARS $NUGT $Gold #forexPREDICTIVE ANALYSIS/FORECASTING:
- TG-Lo = 1.49 - 17 DEC 2014: Low-Prob Attainment, High-Prob Reversal
- TG-x = 0.83 - 17 DEC 2014: Extreme Target/Invalidation level if breached
- Bearish Entrenchment: 21.16/23.08 range
FIBONACCI:
- 0.618-Fib retracement at 22.81 into bearish predictive model's entrenchment
ELLIOTT WAVE:
- Point-2 results from a w-x-y-xx-z complex correction
- EWP's Rule of Alternation call for simpler 4th wave formation
PATTERN:
- Bearish channel validation at/near predictive model values
OCCULT GEO:
Bearish impulse's upper and lower nodule draw core geometry at/near historical pivot ~ 14.00/14.14
OVERALL:
Technically-driven bullish outlook. Proprietary pattern (Great White) call for rallying in this vicinity. Unwinding of price to the upside calls for high-probability Fibonacci guidance to standard 0.618 level.
Volume spike likely institutional, acting much like stopping volume activity. This should be regarded as suspicious, in preparation of a probable counter-trend price action.
Alignment of 0.618-Fibonacci with Model's bearish entrenchment adds credence to rallying target - Expect a temporizing event at/near 14.00 level.
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
