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What is Non-Farm Payroll and How to Trade It? 📚 Hey traders, This week, on Friday, we are expecting Non-Farm Payroll Report. In this educational article, I will try to explain to you why that fundamental data is so important and I will share with you the insights how to trade it. Non-Farm Payroll is one of the most important indicators for forex and stock markets in the economic calendar. Being released on the first Friday of each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), it shows the number of new jobs created by the US economy during the previous month, excluding farm sector, government and not for profit organizations. NFP accounts for 80% of the US gross domestic product work force. The non-farm payroll is used by analysts to determine the current state of the economy and to predict the future activity levels. For that reason, its release usually triggers volatile movements across all Us Dollar related financial instruments. Being crucially important, remember that NFP is not the only figure released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. NFP is the part of the Employment Situation Report that also contains: Unemployment rate, Average hourly earnings, Labor participation rate, Average workweek. The main reason, why newbie traders fail in trading NFP release is the fact that they completely neglect the figures of the Employment Situation Report. Here are some tips how to properly interpret the figures in the report: 1) Non-farm payroll numbers. It reflects the new jobs' creation pace. Higher than predicted rate is usually positive for the US stock market, while the weak rate usually affects that negatively. 2) Unemployment rate. It reflects the number of unemployed people in relation to a total workforce. Low unemployment rate is usually very positive for US Dollar, while higher than expected unemployment quite negatively affects on USD. 3) Average hourly earnings. It reflects the change of the labor cost. The fast increase in the labor cost is usually positive for US Dollar, while the slowing increase is considered to be a bearish indicator for USD. 4) Average weekly hours. It reflects the average amount of paid working hours. The increase in average weekly hours is considered to be a very positive factor for US stock market, while its decrease is considered to be a negative one. Trading NFP report, the one should consider all the figures from the Employment Situation Report. All the numbers should be weighed properly and only then the predictions should be made. Remember that volatility is higher than usual in the hours of news release, for that reason, be careful and never forget to set a stop loss.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
7
The Jobs MarketSee how working age population leveled off ~200M and job openings up top sky rocketed. Boomers retired and died form Covid. It's not gonna recover any time soon. Population is gonna shrink along with tax receipts. Meanwhile spending will only increase. The U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve have been calling it an "Unsustainable Fiscal Path" since 2018 at least. It's even the title of the Treasury's annual report. www.fiscal.treasury.gov Only 1.7M claiming unemployment and seeking jobs for 10.8M job openings.... another 4M working gig jobs and day-trading, not interested in the full-time job market. It's a seller's market that will continue to drive wages and inflation up until the market breaks and causes a massive recession/depression. We're not gonna grow an extra 5M-9M qualified, highly experienced workers over the course of a year or 5. Those job openings are gonna close because the businesses are not doing well.
FRED:JTSJOL
by Nicklaus68
1
Inflation / Unemployment / Stocks2022 is most comparable to 1978 in terms of the current jobs & inflation situation. Seven decades of history concerning the 3, shows that the current drop in stocks is more likely a correction and not the start of a true bear market. 1972-73 scenario is 1 against 6 odds (and that's after demoting 1978 to equal the others). It also usually takes a long time for unemployment to carve a bottom. Even if we assume that right now it's doing so, we're still too early.
FRED:UNEMPLOY
by Indotermes
SPX earnings recession, growth slow down.The fed hiked rates today by 0.75%. They have also moved to meeting by meeting data dependency. Since they've done both in one meeting there is the possibility that if inflation continues higher for a few months they will be unable or unwilling to cut rates to save the economy from the earrings recession likely on the way. In short the supply side situation is still not resolved leading to over supply of certain goods and under supply of others. Oversupply of goods in typical capital overproduction is what breaks the system due to over competition and thus lower prices. utility theory of value applies until extreme highs/lows of supply and demand shows the underlying labor relations. This imbalance will lead to a slow down in growth and thus an earning recession. Q3 & Q4 are thus likely a prolonged period of reduced demand coupled with oversupply. Such conditions will allow the FED to pivot, reduce rates and step up asset purchases late in Q4 or early Q1 as they will be reluctant to cut rates and "save" the economy from low growth while jobs numbers are high and inflation stabilizes in Q3 and Q4 even if that's what is needed it would be politically dangerous until after the election. If you're a bull you want the jobs numbers to decline quickly in a sharp recession allowing the FED to pivot sooner. If you're a bear you want inflation numbers to be sustained and plateau while jobs numbers slowly come down. I for one am bearish on the current overall trend and that is unfortunate since it means real pain ahead for actual people not just numbers on a screen. Always remember that little nugget is conditional to you making money anthropomorphic reader I am creating on the fly. Probably shouting into the ether on this one...which reminds me of a good long trade actually given the merge...hmm.
SP:SPXShort
by GreatScottTheMoon
2
What 3 events will traders be watching this week? 31 Jan- 05 FebThis week’s 3 events will concentrate on US employment numbers. The released figures could bolster or work against the strength found in the USD since the beginning of the year. For instance, the NZD and EUR have quickly dropped in value against the USD and are currently at a multi-month low against the greenback. Depending on this week’s numbers, the GBP, CAD, and AUD, which are presently floating close to 1-month lows, may soon be joining the NZD and EUR at values not seen since mid-2020. Wednesday and Thursday, February 02 and 03: Wednesday: Jolts Job DEC Thursday: ADP Employment Change JAN Two highly anticipated precursors to Friday’s Non-farm Payrolls report are released over Wednesday and Thursday this week. The first, the JOLTS Job Openings for December, is expected to remain close to record highs with 10.5 million jobs advertised across the US. Employers are seemingly experiencing difficulty holding onto their workforce, with job quits matching recorded highs and labour force participation struggles to budge from 40-year lows. While the JOLTS Job Openings report is limited in its impact on forex and stocks, it does help set the tone for the following two more appreciable job reports. The second, the ADP Employment Change for January, is estimated to report the lowest number of new jobs added to the US private sector since February 2021, with the consensus forecasting 200K. The typically slow start to the year, if forecasts are accurate, will sit in stark contrast to December’s (2021) 800K jobs, which shocked analysts who were expecting less than half this number at the end of last year. Saturday, February 05: Non-farm Payrolls JAN Non-farm Payrolls JAN is forecast to report 155K jobs added to the US economy in January, representing a marked slowdown in jobs growth, but in line with what has been seen with the past few months. Last month’s report for December 2021 delivered 199K jobs, while November 2021 reported 249K jobs. Disappointing Non-farm Payrolls may no longer have the same impact it once did, as investors appear content with the slowing job growth, and negative pressure on the USD typically fails to eventuate after such an event. While job growth is slowing, it should be noted that wage pressure is rising, which could be a good thing for US consumer spending and optimism for the US economy in general.
by BlackBull_Markets
Equity sentiment suddenly got very bearish this weekSentiment Is Suddenly Very Bearish on Equities, SPX, NDX, RUT It's been a volatile few weeks of trading as the S&P 500 pulled back a bit (and the Nasdaq pulled back a bit more). Bearish sentiment has grown as the price dipped. The $CPCE equity put/call ratio rose sharply this week to levels last seen in March 2020, near the beginning of the pandemic. The current put/call ratio on the $SPY S&P 500 ETF is 1.5. That's actually better than the average for the last 30 days (1.7), but it's still quite negative. Sentiment is even more negative on the $QQQ Nasdaq ETF, with a put/call ratio of 2.2. The $IWM Russell 2000 small cap ETF is looking even worse, at 2.3. Stock market options traders seem to think that interest rates will continue to rise and the stock market bubble is soon to burst. A lot of the finance wonks I follow on Twitter sold into Friday's strength. However, options on the $TLT 20+ year Treasury bond ETF are sending a different signal. With a put/call ratio of 0.9, bond wonks appear to expect at least a short-term weakening of rates and a rally in bonds from here. $TLT has entered a region of fairly strong technical support: Despite Negative Sentiment, There Are Lots of Fundamental Reasons to Be Bullish To be honest, I think the bearish sentiment in equities may be premature. We've got a fourth vaccine thanks to Johnson & Johnson, with Merck slated to help provide manufacturing capacity. This means we could get all US adults vaccinated 2 months earlier than expected. Plus Merck seems on the verge of getting approval for a Covid therapeutic that could be helpful as well. The savings rate rose during the pandemic, and a lot of that "quarantined cash" will be unleashed on markets as people get vaccinated. Plus, there's more liquidity in the pipeline. We've got another round of $1400 stimulus checks coming. Markets have been worried about a federal minimum wage hike, but it doesn't look like that will happen. The stimulus bill provides $300 billion of support to state and city governments, which removes one of the big risks to the recovery: rising state and local taxes to cover budget shortfalls. Despite rising interest rates, private lending has ticked upward in recent weeks: An uptick in private lending historically has been a confirmation signal that a recession has ended, as I laid out in a previous post: Plus, the jobs numbers this week surpassed analyst expectations by a wide margin, and the ECRI leading economic index has resumed its upward trend. So economic data are signaling continued recovery ahead. The Bear Case Is About Valuations and Rising Interest Rates The bear case would seem to be threefold. First, valuations are very high. Which is absolutely true, but won't necessarily stop them from getting higher. Second, more stimulus means more inflation, which means interest rates could continue to rise. (Inflation is bullish for stocks, but rising interest are bearish. So it's a tug of war between the two, and the question is whether rising interest rates will be enough to rein inflation in. The bears are betting that it will.) And third, there's a technical case for continued market weakness, because $SPY has violated its support trend line. However, I suspect it will establish a new, less steep support line a bit below the previous one. I suppose we could see a 10% correction to the 50-day EMA: But even that feels unlikely to me, given the strength of the fundamentals. I think this correction could prove much more modest than that: Admittedly, I'm not pouring cash into this market at these valuations. But despite rising bearish sentiment, I'm pulling cash out of the market, either. In my opinion, it's likely too early for that, given the fundamentals.
C
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
13
OUR VIEW ON JOB GEE GROUP INC #StockanalysisIN BUSINESS SINCE 1962, FUNDAMENTALLY, THE COMPANY SEEMS SOUND, SOURCING JOBS AND PROVING STAFFING IN THE AREAS OF HEALTHCARE, COMMERCIAL & PROFESSIONAL SERVICES. SEE MORE BELOW : GEE Group Inc. was incorporated in the State of Illinois in 1962, is a provider of specialized staffing solutions and is the successor to employment offices doing business since 1893. We operate in two industry segments, providing professional staffing services and solutions in the information technology, engineering, finance and accounting specialties and commercial staffing services through the names of General Employment, Access Data Consulting, Agile Resources, Ashley Ellis, Omni-One, Paladin Consulting and Triad. Additionally, the Company provides contract and direct hire professional staffing services through the following SNI brands: Accounting Now®, SNI Technology®, Legal Now®, SNI Financial®, Staffing Now®, SNI Energy®, and SNI Certes. Also, in the healthcare sector, through our Scribe Solutions brand, staff medical scribes who assist physicians in emergency departments of hospitals and in medical practices by providing required documentation for patient care in connection with electronic medical records. Technical Insider Own 9.20% Shs Outstand 17.75M Perf Week 30.84% Market Cap 24.96M Forward P/E - EPS next Y -0.51 Insider Trans -15.85% Shs Float 13.12M Perf Month 35.92% Income 10.10M PEG - EPS next Q -0.22 Inst Own 17.50% Short Float 0.06% Perf Quarter 38.48% Sales 129.80M P/S 0.19 EPS this Y 144.40% Inst Trans - Short Ratio 0.01 Perf Half Y 20.69% Book/sh 1.54 P/B 0.91 EPS next Y 32.90% ROA 8.20% Target Price 1.75 Perf Year 240.36% Cash/sh 0.79 P/C 1.77 EPS next 5Y - ROE 53.60% 52W Range 0.17 - 2.49 Perf YTD 40.63% Dividend - P/FCF - EPS past 5Y 20.90% ROI -2.20% 52W High -47.79% Beta 2.29 Dividend % - Quick Ratio 1.70 Sales past 5Y 24.50% Gross Margin 34.40% 52W Low 675.19% ATR 0.10 Employees 258 Current Ratio 1.70 Sales Q/Q -20.30% Oper. Margin -1.10% RSI (14) 68.16 Volatility 11.88% 8.79% Optionable No Debt/Eq 2.54 EPS Q/Q -147.00% Profit Margin 7.80% Rel Volume 3.12 Prev Close 1.40 Shortable Yes LT Debt/Eq 2.46 Earnings - Payout 0.00% Avg Volume 737.29K Price 1.30 Recom 2.00 SMA20 23.08% SMA50 26.89% SMA200 55.25% Volume 1,541,694 Change -7.14% The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained on our Site constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by The Trading Regime Inc. or any third party service provider to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The Trading Regime Inc. AMEX:JOB
AMEX:JOBLong
by EvaultFinancialGroup
S&P 500 at risk amid worst jobs deterioration in monthsThe jobs numbers this week were pretty bad. In both absolute and percentage terms, Thursday's 20% uptick in initial jobless claims was the largest week-over-week increase since March 23, early in the pandemic. The uptick in continued claims was the largest since July 13. The jobs deterioration comes as Covid-19 case numbers in the US continued to worsen this week. TSA traveler throughput has fallen off somewhat in early December as case counts rise. And to throw in an additional economic risk, Democrats and Republicans in Congress remain deadlocked over what should be in a new stimulus bill. The one saving grace for this market is that the vaccine rollout begins next week. Hopefully rollout will proceed quickly and case numbers will begin to fall off. Still, I think the market is in a risky place, and we could see a sharp selloff if stimulus negotiations entirely break down. This might be a good place to hedge a bit or sell a little to reduce long exposure to stocks.
AMEX:SPY
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
3
Crypto & Precious Metals. Biden jobs pledge. Growth in markets.Bitcoin picked up a bid while I was finishing the first video. I used the opportunity to discuss a notion that Joe Biden's plan would create 7 million more jobs than Trump, according to one economic forecast. I also look at Bitcoin, Litecoin, Chainlink and Ethereum again to discover that Bitcoin is outperforming the rest as it rose by $150 at the weekly open. I discuss the legend John Bogle, his views on investing and taking a small risk by investing rather than holding money is necessary to become truly wealthy. the money may be worth more in the first two years but then after being patient more than most begin to return far greater sums than they would earn from a regular job. #Bitcoin #BTC #Ethereum # Eth #litecoin #ltc #Chainlink #link #Band #Silver #XAG #Fibonacci #fibs #Chaikin #Money #Flow #Bollinger #Bands #Moving #Averages
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DanBee78
1
Why I reallocated most of my tech and retail to pharma and cashToday the market surged higher despite the worst jobless claims data since September 2017 and also despite reports that Trump has no intention of delaying the December 15 tariff deadline. Investors apparently are betting that an eleventh-hour deal will get made before Sunday, but personally I'm not willing to gamble on that. If the US does impose $150 billion of new tariffs on consumer goods from China, retail companies and tech companies will be disproportionately affected. I shuffled some of my tech and retail shares into weed stock Aurora Cannabis and pharmaceutical companies Amyris and Lannett this morning after seeing some positive headlines about those companies. I also bought small positions in a gold miners fund and an inverse oil fund just for funsies. Those should both gain if no trade deal materializes. Most of my money is now in cash, however, and I will choose a re-entry once I know what's going on with tariffs. I will definitely miss some profit if a deal gets made, but that's okay. I take safer bets; I don't play Trump roulette.
SP:SPX
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
6
Several bullish signals for the SPYThe bullish signals in my mind include: 1) Today's surge through resistance 2) The Fed keeping the rates the same from yesterdays meeting 3) Strong recent jobs report 4) USMCA trade agreement announced. Even though our politicians are mud slinging and financially irresponsible children, they managed to help the American worker and economy for once this year. I wish I only had to accomplish one thing per year :D 5) I believe our orange Thanos will now be able to use USMCA to make a trade deal more attractive for China; this is speculation but possible.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Johnny_Nickles
MOVE TO CHINA, GO BROKE, OR BUY GOLD BEFORE ITS TOO LATE! THE WORLD IS WITNESSING THE BIGGEST TRANSFER OF WEALTH IN MANY GENERATIONS. ANY PERSON, BANK, OUR COUNTRY THAT IS SELLING GOLD SO LATE IN THE LONG TERM DEBT CYCLE IS ASKING FOR WHAT THEY HAVE COMING. DON'T WE REALIZE THAT THE EXCHANGE OF WESTERN GOLD IS ONLY MOVING IN ONE DIRECTION! EAST! I CAN'T UNDERSTAND WHY THE USA IS SO WORRIED ABOUT LOOSING IT'S MANUFACTURING JOBS TO CHINA AND NOT ABOUT LOOSING ITS REAL WEALTH. GOLD IS THE ONLY MEASURE OF WEALTH TO SURVIVE THORUGHOUT HISTORY. MAY BE WORTHWHILE TO RESEARCH THE FOLLOWING: ftalphaville.ft.com en.wikipedia.org nationalinterest.org OANDA:XAUUSD AMEX:NUGT AMEX:JNUG AMEX:GDX AMEX:GDXJ FX_IDC:XAUCNY FX_IDC:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn3523782
2