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Jobsreport

Job Market Bounced Back From Disappointment (08 November 2021)Stellar jobs report The U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) delivered an optimistic tone when it announced that 531,000 jobs were created for the month of October. Adding a cherry on top of the cake, the number of jobs for August and September have been revised upwards by 117,000 and 118,000 respectively. Overall, a total of 766,000 jobs have been added to the record. With this strong data release, the job market is now around 4.3 million jobs below the pre-pandemic level. The main driver of the increase in jobs last month is the leisure and hospitality sector, which is not surprising as the number of COVID cases has been dropping since mid-September, leading to more activities such as dining-in at restaurants. Labour supply remains stagnated Unemployment rate continues to decline. At the moment, it is standing at 4.6%, 0.2% higher than the pre-pandemic level of 4.4%. Despite the fall in unemployment rate, the labour force remains stagnated in terms of growth. As the participation rate remained unchanged at 61.6%, this indicates that people are still not returning to the workforce. Data in line with Fed’s timeline With the start of quantitative easing (QE) tapering, the Federal Reserve is expecting QE to conclude during mid-2022. If the job market remains strong from now until mid-2022, it may recover to its pre-pandemic level, making progress towards the Fed’s maximum employment goal. In that case, the central bank may carry forward its projected timeline for interest rate hike.
TVC:DXY
by GH_Lee
Bye-Bye Tapering Announcement (06 September 2021)Jobs growth in August way off market’s expectation. Last Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 235,000 jobs being created in August, way below the market’s expectation of 720,000. The leisure and hospitality sector, the main driver behind the strong jobs growth for the past several months, added zero jobs amid the rise in COVID cases. With the leisure and hospitality sector taking a backseat, the professional and business services sector led the August’s jobs growth with an increase of 74,000 jobs. The worsening COVID situation has impacted the job market more negatively in August than in July. 5.6 million people reported not being able to work as their employer wind down business due to the pandemic. This figure rose from the July’s figure of 5.2 million. All is not lost. Despite the poor August figure, upward revisions were made to the number of jobs created for the past two months. In July, the number of jobs created was revised from 943,000 to 1,053,000 while in June, the figure was revised from 938,000 to 962,000. In total, these revisions reflected 134,000 jobs more than previously reported. Furthermore, based on history, nonfarm payroll figures have a tendency of subjecting to substantial revision due to discrepancies as a result of people going on summer vacation. Hence, there is a chance that the scanty figure released this month may be revised upwards to salvage the situation a little even though the shortfall may be too big. Chance of a September taper announcement is dimming. Without a doubt, the Federal Reserve is not going to like what they see from this jobs report. This will definitely lower the chance that the central bank will be making a QE tapering announcement during their meeting later this month. As a result, the Fed may postpone such an announcement to the meeting in November while buying some time for the jobs market to prove its worth.
TVC:DXY
by GH_Lee
Key Points From The U.S. NFP Jobs Report (09 August 2021)KEY POINTS: In July, 943,000 jobs were created Highest figure since August 2020; main driver of this strong increase is the Leisure and Hospitality sector Number of jobs created in June was revised upwards from 850,000 to 938,000 Number of jobs created in May was also revised upwards from 583,000 to 614,000 Total number of jobs at the moment is still around 5.8 million below the pre-pandemic level Unemployment rate declined from 5.9% to 5.4% Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% Rising demand for labour likely led to the rise in earnings Participation rate inched higher from 61.6 to 61.7
TVC:DXY
by GH_Lee
Energy breakout ~ June 2021Technical Analysis We have been in a strong uptrend (pink segment line) since November, which I have divided into 3 ranges. We have tested the top of "Range 2" 3 times, and we are now breaking out. Either we continue into "Range 3", or we could potentially test the pink trend line once again (ghost feed representation) Macro Tomorrow jobs report could be a market moving event, as the Fed has made a drastic change in its action plan, which consists of reacting to data (reports such as these), instead of reacting preemptively as it has done in the past.
AMEX:XLELong
by dorfmanmaster
An Inside dayIn past 6 trading days SPY has open higher than the close. They are selling the up gaps. And buying the down gaps, as happened on the only green day in the past 6 days. Yesterday traced out an inside day. Usually trading in the direction of the break of an inside day pays off. However, at present, ES futures are trading 22.50 handles lower promising a gap down open. Not sure if they will gap and go or gap and fail. Jobs report at 8:30 am can be a market mover. Will wait till settles in the first 30 minutes before trading, if at all. Support and SPY 300 holding steady.
AMEX:SPY
by insyyte
Buy the rumor, sell the fact perhapsSPY close down yesterday -0.26% snapping a 4 day winning streak. The Nasdaq-100 index briefly touched a record high before rolling over to close more than 0.7% lower. Labor Department’s latest jobs report is scheduled for Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Expected unemployment 20%. ES futures are again higher 30 handles (+0.97%) as of now, as bouyant Wall Street/ distressed Main street roots dig in deeper. Waiting for the buy the rumor sell the fact narrative to start emerging if the past few days liquidation breaks start to take hold earnestly.
AMEX:SPYLong
by insyyte
Risk Events - U.S and Canadian Jobs Numbers People sometimes confuse with trading the economic numbers' reactionary price action as part of "Team Fundamental Analysis" trader. I have a better word for that: Storm Catcher. I have a dear friend who trades this way, (@itsReal307 - his handle in tradingview) unlike most people I've seen, he's done it with success. I have tried it in the past, most of my big losses came from trading this way. So, that my friend of mine, I don't know how he does it, being a storm catcher (or chaser?). I, however, am a very defensive trader, risk-averse in nature, I would avoid the storm. The price action after NFP numbers, I tend to avoid and stayed on the sidelines, especially if it is against my technical bias and/or against the bias I've determined analyzing the underlying sentiment of the currencies involved (i.e I am bullish bias for USDCAD but the jobs number for the U.S is negative). I believe risk events like NFP, are a great hunting ground for the institutional to stop hunts/manipulate the price/ensuing liquidity runs, hence if you do not know what you're doing (like my friend who does), stay away from trading this at least after 30 minutes of the number's release. In this chart, showcases how my technical bias contradicts the jobs numbers. I stayed on the sideline for 30 minutes, which in this case, no bullish trigger warranted me to go Long until the following Monday. Risk Events provides liquidity but with the spreads tend to widen and slippages tend to happen, it's best that you just stay away from this risk event.
by sufiansaid
CAD faces downside risks ahead of dataBy Andria Pichidi - February 8, 2019 Canada’s job market is expected to show another modest increase to start the year, after the 78.4k surge in November gave way to a 7.8k rise in December. Canada employment should expand 10.0k in January. The unemployment rate on the other hand, is expected to nudge higher to 5.7% in January, from the 43-year low 5.6% in November and December. Earnings growth is expected to remain subdued, adding to the softening inflation backdrop, well below the 3.9% pace in May of 2018, at 0.4% m/m in January. The risk for today’s data is to the downside, as January’s data so far showed a constrained Canadian economy to begin 2019, based on consumer and factory sentiment. As the risk is for a negative print for total jobs to begin 2019, Canadian dollar could continue depreciated. USDCAD is up for a fifth consecutive day, today printing a 13-day high at 1.3328 , extending a recovery from last Friday’s 3-month low. The up phase has been concomitant with a down phased in oil prices, while sustained gains in crude prices are a boon to Canada’s terms of trade, and vice versa. Overall, USDCAD is strongly supported by 200-day SMA since April. Hence long term Support holds at 1.3126 (200-day SMA), while the 20-day SMA and PP of the day provide immediate Support levels at 1.3240 and 1.3275 respectively. Resistance holds at 1.3363-1.3375 area , presenting the area between the 50% retracement on the decline seen since 1.3660 high and January’s peak. In the scenario of disappointing jobs data today, the pair could seen reaching this area. Further gains, could lead to the 61.8% Fib. level at 1.3430 level. At this level we could face a correction lower. From the Market perspective, a damp jobs report could underpin expectations that the BoC is stuck on the sidelines until 2020. However, BoC’s view that the current (and Q4) slowing is temporary has been supported by the recent data, as opposed to the data showing a more pronounced slowing in growth than the Bank anticipated. Come join us today at HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Long
by HotForex
1
Short term trade S&P 500, WTI, or EURSUDThe job-market report issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was very strong. 312K new jobs created instead of a forecasted 177K, Blacks entering the job market as unemployed. This is good because they are no longer outside the job market. Next step is that they will be employed. There were other positive points as well, but you get the point. S&P 500 futures On the five minute chart the stock market did not like the report. Probably a misunderstanding. Everyone reading the report came to the conclusion that the economy was stronger than expected, but it took 10-15 minutes. Then the buying started. This was probably a combination of machines as well as people. The buying pressure grew gradually during the day. EURUSD The currency market reacted quicker. The dollar got a boost. USDWTI The oil market is driven by demand and the strong report would signal that demand would be higher than expected. However, the euphoria did not last so long because the next report was the EIA report on natural gas. The change in stocks was smaller than expected. Hence, maybe less consumption than expected. The response was very fast to this report even though it is about natural gas. EIA publishes the crude oil report 30 min later. Traders assumed that the situation for crude oil would be the same. The traders respond quickly to the stockpile report so less room to profit unless you have superior information. What to trade? * The S&P 500 would be preferred. Jobs are good for the economy. The stockmarket is in a slump. Moon cycle is up. I could expect the market to continue up early next week. * EURUSD would be good too, but short term, maybe an hour. Monitor and get out as soon as you see EUR strength again. * Oil is another option. Jobs is also good for oil, or at least that is what the market believed. I would have gotten out before the EIA report as I cannot forecast it. If you are a speed reader you might have picked up in the job-report that it is professional and administative jobs that have increased a lot, not manufacturing. So oil might not be a good choice. However, that would have been hard to pick up for an individual trader in real time.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Mats000
Loonie looks ready to shift in outlookUSDCAD has dropped for a second straight day, putting in some more distance from the 20-month peak that was seen at 1.3663. A rise in oil prices amid a revival in risk appetite in global markets has helped the Canadian Dollar, while US Fed funds futures have now priced out Fed tightening expectations for 2019 and are factoring in a 25 bp rate cut at the 18-month horizon. USDCAD has descended into two-week low territory under 1.3431 . The early December low at 1.3160 provides a downside waypoint. Immediate support is set at S2 at 1.3350 , which coincides with 50-day EMA. Resistance for today is set at 1.3495 (4 consecutive session peak in the 4 hour chart). In the long-term Resistance stands at the 2018 peak, at 1.3663 . Focus today will be on the dual releases of the US and Canadian jobs reports for December. The US version is expected to show a 205k headline rise (median 177k), with the unemployment rate ticking down to a new cycle low of 3.6% from 3.7% in the prior three months. On balance, the data should be supportive of USDCAD. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Long
by HotForex
What's With These Jobs Numbers? - Market Pop on Fake News?Where are these jobs numbers coming from? On 5/4, the latest U.S. jobs report came out showing unemployment at 3.9%(?!?) with 164,000 jobs added and wage growth virtually nonexistent. The market (DIA) couldn't decide what to do with that news early on, but Apple (plus tech overall) and energy (stocks like RIG ) were credited with lifting the indices higher, and traders ultimately deciding the jobs report shows inflation being held at bay. Thank you for lending me your attention! But if the market pop is on low unemployment (fake news) and staved-off inflation (short-term reprieve from the inevitable), that's not going to prop the market long. How is that 3.9% unemployment even calculated? Without going into details, the way unemployment is calculated has changed over the years. Many experts will tell you that if unemployment was calculated as it was back in the 90's, the number would be much, much higher. Even still, I believe unemployment has been miscalculated for a long time - presenting numbers lower than what is realistic - and a claim that unemployment is below is 4% is outrageous. The jobs environment is desolate, especially for young people. Not only is entry-level pay below livable wages, but a massive amount of jobs are ready for replacement by automation. More and more people are dropping out of the workforce, and record debt levels are coming to pass as the U.S. population is forced to turn to credit - rather than a paycheck - to maintain an acceptable standard of living. Peak earnings, slow global growth, fake jobs news, a destitute situation for young and old workers alike - the short term (questionable) news can't change the nature of reality, and if there is something that can legitimately send the markets higher, it's not - and won't be -jobs. Please like, follow, and share, and maybe we can have fun and do great things together. Thanks again! See it on the site: holsturr.com/category/markets/charts/ ** For speculative and research purposes only - good luck! **
AMEX:DIA
by holsturr