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JOLTS - Job Openings come in lower than expectedJOLTS - Job Openings Rep: 8.863m 🚨Lower than Expected 🚨 Exp: 8.900m Prev: 8.889m Long Term Trend (DOWN) Since May 2022 we have remained in a downward sloping channel reducing from 11.85m to current day 8.863m in job openings (see channel on chart). Shorter Term Trend (Turning Down) The number of job openings went down by 26,000 from the previous month to 8,863 million in January 2024, the lowest in past three months and below the market consensus of 8.9 million. Recent Months Movements OCT - 8.690m (Local Low) NOV - 8.930m (Local High) ~240,000 Increase DEC - 8.889m (Lower) ~ 41,000 decrease JAN - 8.863m (Lower) ~ 26,000 decrease The hardest hit sector in the JOLTS Job Openings report was Retail with 170,000 less job openings than in Dec 2023 👀 Could this be staff let go in January 2024 after the Christmas retail rush? Interestingly, on Monday the Johnson Redbook Index noted an increase from 2.7% to 3.1% in retail sales suggesting that sales from retail stores increased slightly last week. The Redbook Index provides the YoY percentage increase or decrease of USD in retail sales in the United States (it is released weekly for the week that just past). Currently the Redbook Index is oscillating around the average 3.59% level on the chart for retail sales. The Index currently illustrates that we are in moderate retail sales channel and this might reinforce that the 170,000 reduction in retail Job offerings may be seasonal. Please review Macro Monday from this week for a full review of the Redbook Index and its chart history. Thanks folks PUKA
FRED:JTSJOL
by PukaCharts
1
$SPY Outlook 05/30 - 06/02With a tentative agreement to raise the debt ceiling reached over the weekend, we now look to see how the markets react when it is voted on later this week. Technical Analysis: The megaphone pattern we’ve been watching all month is still in play. We also have the macro uptrend line that we have not tested since March. My general lean for this week is bullish. Bulls will want AMEX:SPY to hold above last week’s open at 418.64. Barring any additional news, I’m expecting us to fill the gap above to 420.77 - 421.22 when markets open on Tuesday. I do see a 15 minute Fair Value Gap around last week’s open at 418.64 where we could potentially form a support base before we head higher into the 423-425 range. Although I can see the market moving higher in the short term, I’d expect some corrective action in the coming weeks. Bear case if we fail to hold the 418.64 level, we could potentially retrace to the 0.618 fib at 414.04. Should we invalidate a golden pocket bounce, our next support zone would be the daily gap under the 50 SMA from 409.87- 407.27. Under this… megaphone plays out and we test the macro support trendline. Upside Targets: 420.77 → 421.22 → 421.97 → 422.82 → 423.54 Extended: 425.26 Downside Targets: 418.64 → 417.30 → 416.25 → 414.94 → 414.15 Extended: 408.87
AMEX:SPYLong
by peterjames_6
NZD/USD surges briefly after RBNZ hikes by 50 basis pointsThe New Zealand dollar is showing sharp movement on Wednesday after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand shocked the markets and raised rates by 50 basis points. In the US, JOLTS Jobs Openings was below expectations, raising concerns about the strength of the US labour market. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6296, down 0.24%. The RBNZ gets the prize for shocker of the week, after the central bank delivered a 50-bp hike, bringing the benchmark cash rate to 5.25%. Most analysts were expecting a modest 25-bp increase and ahead of the decision, the markets had priced in such a move at a massive 86%. The New Zealand dollar climbed over 1% following the decision, but has pared all of the gains and fallen into negative territory. The RBNZ statement noted that inflation remains too high, and there's no arguing that point, as CPI was unchanged in the fourth quarter at 7.2%. The reason that the markets were completely blindsided was that the economy is sputtering. GDP declined by 0.6% in the fourth quarter. The uncertain global outlook doesn't bode well for the export-dependent economy, and high interest rates and red-hot inflation are hurting domestic demand. This writer suggested yesterday that it seemed a sensible time for the RBNZ to take a breather, but instead, the Bank pushed the rate pedal down even harder than expected. In the US, a soft JOLTS Job Openings release has the markets abuzz about the strength of the US labour market. JOLTS slipped to 9.93 million, down from 10.56 million and its lowest level since May 2021. The nonfarm payrolls report on Friday will have added significance, as a soft reading would put pressure on the Fed to take a pause at its meeting in May. NZD/USD tested resistance at 0.6362 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 0.6425 0.6308 and 0.6245 are providing support
by OANDA
CAD climbs on soft US data, risk-on moodThe Canadian dollar continues to show strong movement early in the New Year. USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.2674, down 0.56% on the day. The first tier-1 events in 2022 out of the US disappointed, missing their estimates. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for December slowed to 58.7, missing the consensus of 60.0 and below the November reading of 61.1 points. The PMI showed a 19th consecutive month of expansion, so there's no arguing that the manufacturing sector is not performing well. Still, the December reading was the lowest since January, which posted an identical figure of 58.7 points. Manufacturing has been expanding, but growth has been hampered by raw material shortages, a lack of workers and supply bottlenecks. ISM Manufacturing Prices slowed to a 12-month low, with a reading of 68.2. This was down sharply from the previous read of 82.4 and shy of the estimate of 79.5 points. On the employment front, JOLTS Jobs Openings for November decreased to 10.4 million, missing the forecast of 11.07 million and below the October reading of 11.09 million. The Canadian dollar has also benefitted from elevated risk sentiment. Treasury yields have been rising this week, as investors continue to sell Treasury bills on improved sentiment that the latest wave of the Omicron variant, although extremely contagious, will be less severe than originally feared. In the US, Omicron cases are exploding, with the average number of new cases breaking above 400 thousand, a 200% increase in the past 14 days. However, hospitalisation rates have not jumped higher and Covid-related deaths have actually declined slightly during this period. With no indications that Omicron will have a devastating effect on the global economy, investors remain in a risk-on mood. USD/CAD has support at 1.2558 and 1.2477 There is resistance at 1.2784. Above, there is resistance at 1.2929
by OANDA