Markets Across the world are ready to push like never before.Looking at charts from across the globe we found a very similar setup, triangle formations that are forming across the board in a timely manner.
If we look deeper into what is going on we are going to get a pretty nice surprise. Let's start of with the Nikkei.
The Nikkei has been on a consolidation pattern since the start of June and has just resolved within a clear break around it exactly one month after. This paired with global optimism that a second wave has been avoided in Asia thanks to great control sounds the bull bell, we might still see a deeper correction that could signal a potential long term buying opportunity. If we see the price of the Nikkei Holding above 22600 we could be up for a move towards 24k in the rest of the year.
Exactly the same is going on across the board. Let's check Europe for an instance:
For instance, the DAX is doing exactly the same being in a triangle consolidation pattern since the 3rd of June that has now broken above and is showing strength if it holds above 12.600. if things start to look clearer from here we might be looking at a potential move towards previous all-time-highs. Coincidence? Not really.
Not confident enough? let's get to the juicy part, let's try and dig deeper into the abyss and look at what is going on in the US Markets. after all, EEUU markets drive most of the money flows right?
A quick glance at the S&P500 might give you the chills. Why? Well, the market is exactly doing the same, but wait there is more to come, we are just getting started.
Looks pretty familiar right? well, I can't say I didn't warn you. Global Markets took a hit and it hurt, but recovery is around the corner. Central banks are doing almost everything they can, Governments are supporting people like never before. and let's face it. A second wave is something bad but we are going to live with COVID-19 for a long time, we might just make it a profitable one.
Not buying it yet? well, let's look at something even more interesting... What about the Dow Jones? is it anything closer to this? I mean what sector can be worst off in a pandemic right?
Well, that's pretty much a very compelling view of global markets. However let's not take a pause and bring the big guns, as I said, we might as well just save the best for the end. Because it is yet to come.
The dollar is breaking lower and this is just the cherry on top, we might as well just close here but not everything needs to be technical. Fundamentals are coming in stronger in the last few weeks, rates are lower than ever and the sentiment for the virus is shifting towards more "lets live with it and make the most of it" than rather being scared and locked down at home.
JAPAN 225
JP225USD - 1H SHORT Trend Trade Entry Setup - See Targets & StopJP225USD 1-Hour Chart
Price action pullback with pinbar at a confluence area: resistance zone, trendline, and ema.
Expecting to drop to first target price @ 20350
Enter SHORT @ 20560
Stop Loss @ 20725
Target 1 @ 20350
Target 2 @ 20250
Target 3 @ 20100
Japanese Stock Index "Nikkei 225" Can Lose 30% in the CorrectionNikkei 225 (JP225), commonly known as Nikkei, is a stock index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the world’s third-largest stock exchange with a market capitalization of US$5.6 trillion.
As the leading index of Japanese stocks, Nikkei 225 (JP225) is a price-weighted stock index, equivalent to the American Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, comprising Japan’s most powerful 225 blue-chip companies on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
Let’s take a look at Nikkei's structure via the Elliott Wave principle.
The monthly chart above reveals that the 2009-2018 rally had formed a textbook five-wave impulse pattern. It is labeled 1-2-3-4-5 where the five sub-waves of wave 3 is visible.
Unfolding Correction Makes Nikkei 225 Bulls Vulnerable
The Elliott Wave theory states that a three-wave correction in the opposite direction follows every impulse. And indeed, the decline from 24595 to 18951 in 2018 can be seen as a simple a-b-c zigzag in wave A. The Nikkei 225 spent the entire 2019 trying to recover from that low and top at 24412 in December 2019 as a three-wave zigzag in B.
This three-wave down and three-wave up pattern make JP225 vulnerable to further decline as it only a part of larger A-B-C flat or W-X-Y double zigzag Elliot Wave correction.
Bearish targets near the support area of wave 4 or lower are plausible. If this assumption is correct, we can expect another selloff in wave C to approximately 15000 from the current level. That's a ~33% drop, I think now is not the time for bravery when it comes to the Nikkei 225 or investing in Japan's stock blue chip. Observing from a safe distance makes more sense.
Do you think a 30% decline is plausible on Nikkei?
Nikkei 225 Japanese supply and demand forecastNikkei 225 Japanese Index has been rallying for a few weeks creating new strong weekly demand imbalances. Nikkei 225 index has unfortunately not retraced yet to any of these two strong weekly imbalances and continues to rally on its way to weekly supply imbalance around 23600.
Nikkei 225 Japanese Index futures forecast. As per the weekly timeframe analysis, Nikkei 225 Index futures is in a clear uptrend creating new weekly demand imbalances at 21850 and lower at 20570. Nikkei tried to correct and reached bottom weekly demand level but it just couldn’t and kept on rallying ending up creating another strong weekly demand imbalance around 21850.
Long term long bias on Nikkei index. This is the kind of price action technical analysis you will learn in our trading community. You will learn how to locate new supply and demand imbalances and trade without using any indicators, no news, no fundamental analysis, no earnings announcements, no volume or VSA analysis. Just supply and demand imbalances.
Trading supply and demand imbalances is ideal for beginners and those with a full or half time job, you won’t need to stay in front of the computer all day long trying to move price action with your mind.
JP225 is going according to planAs I have published before that JP225 will be moving up in the next coming weeks, it has broken resistance and it is currently playing around the consolidation area highlighted in red as a zone. I am expecting it to drop to support before it can shoot up. Similarly, if it breaks support, `I am looking for a retest before I can take it down as a sell.
Nikkei Potential Head and Shoulders?The Nikkei is showing a potential head and shoulders pattern on the 2 hour chart. If we do break below the support at 21620,
then we would await for a lower high which would be a retest of the break.
However, ideally, would like to see a bounce and then a lower high which would make the head and shoulders pattern.
Price is turning at a resistance zone (21800) zone which adds further confluence.
This is a trade that can possibly play out next week. Keep it on your radar!
NI225 (Nikkei) - Market Crash Cycles | Indices | Macro Trends*Please support this idea with a LIKE if it helps you. Thanks!
More details about me in my signature.
NI225 has been labeled within a Grand Super-Cycle degree wave B (pink), which has been unfolding ever since the Tokyo Stock Bubble back in 1990.
Structure - Flat Formation
1990 bubble peak and down until Apr 2003 bottoms - Super-Cycle (w) (purple)
2003 bottoms up until 2007 tops - Cycle wave a (turquoise)
2007 tops and down until 2008 lows - Cycle wave b (turquoise)
2008 lows and up until present times - Cycle wave C (turquoise), the final leg of Super-Cycle (X) (purple)
Cycle wave C (turquoise)
Pattern - Ending Diagonal
Sequence - 5-Wave Sequence, with Primary Waves 1 2 3 4 5 (green) decomposed as Intermediate (A)(B)(C) (blue)
Current Position
Primary Wave 5 (green)
Next expected swing
Bearish sequence in Intermediate (B) (blue)
Market Crash Forecast
Support granted at or around the 21000.00 mark and then a bull run towards the 27000.00 levels, where Super-Cycle (X) (purple) is expected to complete
Super-Cycle Waves (a)(b)(c) (red) would reflect the next Larger Degree Recession or even a Depression
Structure change:
Breach of the lower trend-line of the Ending Diagonal could reflect the fact that the Market Crash already started.
Nikkei225 (NI225) LONGI am expecting price to rebound from the bearish streak at the 20742.2 price level, which also represents a fibonacci zone. However, it should be noted that the price is creating somewhat a triangle pattern and it is thus wise to watch out for further downside movement below the 20742.2 price level as prices might be heading to retest the upward trendline from the monthly timeframe. Either way, i will only wait for long trades one this one