JPM
JPM and Banks Report FridayJamie Dimon has set the fear expectation, prior to the banks report this week.
Attached is the JPM CHART on a 15 minute time frame
The lines on the chart are referenced below and on the chart.
Yellow Dotted = Intraday Levels
White Dotted = Daily Chart Levels
I expect the PPI or CPI to be a catalyst for the market to get a counter trend going and Friday bank earnings to be the counter trend continuation. Again, those are my technical thoughts and outlook, of which, could be different from yours', so please stick with your trading rules and risk management.
JPM - Trend-Following Setup!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
JPM is overall bullish trading inside our brown rising broadening wedge and it is currently approaching a demand zone and round number 100.0
Moreover, the lower brown trendline act as non-horizontal support.
Thus, the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of:
1- Green Demand Zone
2- Brown Trendline
3- Round Number 100.0
As per my trading style:
Since JPY is already around the purple circle, I will be looking for reversal bullish setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. Options Ahead Of EarningsIf you haven`t sold JPM after the profit fall:
Then you should know that looking at the JPM JPMorgan Chase options chain, i would buy the $104 strike price Puts with
2022-10-14 expiration date for about
$2.09 premium.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
JPM (double) BottomingWe are forming a double bottom patten at the 61.8 Fib Retracement level just 5 days before earnings.... Sentiment is weak despite significant boost in Net Interest Margin. Inverted Yield Curve and collapse of capital markets and mortgage activity does not bode well for JPM however I believe this reality is already priced in to the stock and we are set up for a nice pop.
JPM is obviously a blue chip company and down almost 70 dollars from the highs. I will be trading this with a tight stop against the long term up trend line and the fib retracement but this could be a great entry for a long term position as well.
Golden Zigzag on JP Morgan. JPMA Wave, B Wave with ~ 0.618 retracement with fibtime <1, now likely impulsing to the downside. Pretty convincing.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Confirmation level, where relevant, is a pink dotted, finite line. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe.
JPM: Potential reversal?JPMorgan Chase
Intraday - We look to Buy at 109.10 (stop at 104.26)
Short term momentum is bearish. Bespoke support is located at 109.00. Price action continues to gravitate towards crucial support levels with aggressive selling interest. Support could prove difficult to breakdown. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher.
Our profit targets will be 122.26 and 128.00
Resistance: 123.00 / 133.00 / 172.00
Support: 109.00 / 90.00 / 70.00
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JPM $JPM Initial LongJPM $JPM Initial Long. This is a pure digital signal processing signal just as are every other signal I post. ZERO other factors are considered in producing this signal.
Entry reasons: JPM is showing momentum and confluence of mean reversion crossing up the 70 day price mean.
Exits and SL: TP and SL on chart. Move SL on TP. After TP2, trail with 0.5xATR step and 1.5xATR offset.
Swing Trading using Island ReversalsIsland Reversal are powerful reversal signals so as a swing trader I'm always searching these out and/or watching them form.
The most powerful Island Reversals generally occur around some sort of news event (or sometimes prior to a news event if Wall Street is in the "know") and typically leads to fairly violent initial move to the upside or downside.
What is important about the "strongest" of these reversals is that the "white space" will remain for some time and/or never clears!
Below is the chart of SPX prior to the Covid vaccine approval announcement:
Who can forget the Mother of all Islands!
JPM-
TSLA-
What are some of your favorite Island Reversals?
JPM LONG SETUP Early Reversal of DownstrendNYSE:JPM
JPM appears to have reversal a long downtrend with
a breakout from a descending parallel channel
The Relative strength is increasing on the oscillator.
I see a target of 129 based on horizontal resistance
and the mid Finonnacci levels of a retracement.
This appears to be a low-risk swing long setup with
immediate upside of 10-15 % to take an entry
when the general market is reversing to the upside.
JP Morgan (JPM) Post Earnings PullbackFor certain stocks I have Spike alerts setup on multiple timeframes to find opportunity. Today a Spike Alert triggered on the 2 Hour Swing Timeframe for NYSE:JPM . Where this spike in the opening morning price is occurring is at the 50% Pullback to the post Earnings rally. I was able to put on a position at the 50% proper this afternoon. This sets up a very low risk entry to play a move back to retest to highs of the post-earnings rally and beyond.
JPM - Strong Support Ahead!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
JPM is overall bullish trading inside our brown rising broadening wedge and it is currently approaching a demand zone and round number 100.0
Moreover, the lower brown trendline act as non-horizontal support.
Thus, the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of:
1- Green Demand Zone
2- Brown Trendline
3- Round Number 100.0
As per my trading style:
As JPM approaches the purple circle, I will be looking for reversal bullish setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
JPMorgan Chase | Fundamental Analysis | MUST READ | SHORT 🔔JPMorgan Chase, the largest U.S. bank by assets, upset the market last week when it reported second-quarter earnings that fell short of analysts' expectations. The bank also suspended share repurchases to raise capital to prepare for higher capital requirements in 2023 and 2024. After these two setbacks, is it still safe to buy the bank's stock?
JPMorgan's main second-quarter numbers are certainly not what investors wanted to see, but still, most of them were expected.
The Federal Reserve's annual stress test and consistent warnings from JPMorgan management told anyone who paid attention that capital requirements would increase, leaving the bank with less excess capital to distribute to shareholders. The bank still has a tremendous amount of capital but has essentially become a victim of its own success as the bank's growing size and other factors have led to higher regulatory capital requirements.
Incredibly strong corporate and investment bank JPMorgan Chase also posted its least profitable quarter in the past five quarters, posting a profit of about $3.7 billion. Investment banking fell sharply as events such as initial public offerings (IPOs) did not take place this year amid market volatility and uncertainty. Investment banking revenues fell by nearly $2.1 billion from the same quarter last year. Nevertheless, JPMorgan maintained its No. 1 position in the investment banking sector in terms of wallet share.
Although the bank fell short of forecasts, there were a few positives to note in the quarter. Lending continued to grow, and net interest income ( NII) - the profits that banks make from loans, securities, and cash - also grew.
Total average loan balances were up 2% from the previous quarter and up 7% year-over-year. Credit card balances jumped 9% in the quarter and rose 17% year over year. Commercial loans at the end of the period were also up 4% quarter-over-quarter and 10% year-over-year, with particular growth in the mid-market banking sector.
Banks are also in the most aggressive increase in interest rates not seen since the Great Recession. NII was $15.2 billion in the quarter, up $1.3 billion from the first quarter. In addition, management raised its NII forecast and now expects NII, excluding market-related NII, to be $58 billion for the year, up from the previous forecast of $56 billion.
Credit quality so far remains very high, and management also maintains its forecast for spending at $77 billion for the year.
Although the forecasts fell short, JPMorgan still posted a 17% return on tangible total equity (ROTCE), which is the bank's return on equity after deducting intangible assets and goodwill.
This figure is in line with the bank's immediate financial goals. In addition, NII continues to improve. We are hopeful that investment banking activity will begin to recover later this year. While capital returns will be more modest in the near term, JPMorgan still has a tremendous amount of capital and is indeed constrained by regulators, which is beyond its control.
The bank's stock currently trades at 163% of its book value or net worth, and less than eight times earnings, a historically low valuation in recent years. For this reason, we rate the stock a "buy" because, despite the lower valuation, the bank's business has only gotten stronger in recent years.
$JPM Technical Outlook - The Best Area for Long Term Buyers$JPM is slowly trading in really great areas for buys. If price gives the confirmation I am confident in getting into buys.
As always: Do your own research and backtest a strategy before applying a random stranger's markup. Stay save - Max Power
NYSE:JPM
Finding a silver lining in JPMorgan’s 2Q earnings report Yesterday, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) reported that the bank's second-quarter earnings fell as a result of adding $428 million in bad loan reserves.
With this view, JPMorgan has chosen to temporarily halt its share repurchases in order to meet regulatory capital requirements.
According to a statement from JPMorgan, the reserve rise was primarily to blame for the earnings decline of 28% from a year earlier to $8.65 billion. Additionally, JPMorgan, which has one of the largest operations on Wall Street, was hurt by the slowdown in Wall Street transactions. Investment banking fees dropped sharply by 54% to $1.65 billion, $250 million less than the forecasted $1.9 billion.
Fixed income trading revenue increased by 15% to $4.71 billion, Although it still fell far short of analysts' expectations of $5.14 billion for the quarter while strong results in macro trading were offset by a decline in credit and securitized products, resulting in a quarter-end revenue that was far below analysts' $5.14 billion projection.
On the positive side of its report, revenue from equity trading increased by 15% to $3.08 billion, beating the estimate of $2.96 billion. Rising U.S. interest rates and a growing book of loans are two positive factors for the firm. For the quarter, net interest income increased by 19% to $15.2 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $14.98 billion. JPMorgan stated during the firm's investor day in May that rising rates will allow it to surpass its main goal of 17% returns this year faster than anticipated. However, the firm has achieved that goal this month.
JPM stock dropped about 5% in intra-day trading on Thursday but found the support to finally settle only 3.5% lower at closing. JPM now trades at a 90-week low, but with a rumored 100 basis-points rate hike due from the US Federal Reserve within a couple weeks, perhaps bank stocks will find their bottom before the rest of the market.
JPM - BULLISH SCENARIOJPMorgan Kicks Off Bank Earnings Season
The bank will re-test the major resistance of the falling wedge.
If a positive outcome occurs the next major resistance level is located at $132, or more than a 16 % possible return for the bulls.
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JPM options ahead of earningsIf you haven`t shorted JPM after the Q1 results:
then ahead of Q2 earnings I would buy the following JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) puts:
2023-1-20 expiration date
$113.19 entry price (approximatively)
$90 strike price
$3.15 premium/share
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Rotation - After gyrationsINVESTMENT CONTEXT
S&P 500 Energy Sector has registered 10-trading day decline dropping by 23.7% as fears of recession and lower demand pushed traders to liquidate longer-dated positions
On June 23, all 33 of the U.S. biggest banks, some of which considered as systemically important, successfully passed the Fed's annual stress tests, confirming their ability to lend and maintain capital levels during severe economic breakdown
During the summit in Brussel on June 23, Ukraine and Moldova formally received the symbolic status of "candidates" to join the European Union
JPMorgan does not expect a recession to materialize over the next 12 month; according to the Bank, global growth will accelerate from 1.3% in the first half of 2022 to 3.1% in the second part of the year thanks to recovery of Chinese economy
On a different note, Germany warned that Russia's move to curb natural gas deliveries to Europe could trigger an economic downfall similar to that caused by Lehman Brothers at the onset of the Great Financial Crisis
Copper prices recorded 16-month low on June 23 because of growing worries about rising COVID-19 cases in China and stoking worries of a global economy recession
PROFZERO'S TAKE
As the world finally takes notice that there won't be a solution to the current industrial crisis unless a global strategy on energy emerges, ProfZero has witnessed the steep correction faced already by commodities just on fears of a recession. Brent crude has plunged to USD 110/boe after some bull analysts forecasted it could top its all time high at USD 147.50/boe (July 2008); iron and copper are down 30% and 17%, respectively, on a monthly basis, while also wheat prices retraced 25% from the all-time high touched on May 17. Albeit encouraging under an inflation perspective, these signs may be indicative of greater distress in commodities - hence more stringent need to quickly restructure global supply chains, particularly as soft commodities are exposed to extreme conditions (Italy drought)
Growth stocks roared back on June 24, as traders unloaded Value and commodity-driven stocks repositioning in favor of the battered tech segments. ProfZero argues the move comes as investors reassess the likelihood of a recession, which would undoubtedly punish cyclical players, starting from big-ticket items (automotive, leisure operators) down to non-core consumer goods (non-food retail, handheld devices). As Growth trades still at record lows, it might be a good chance to start fishing for opportunities before the next cycle kicks-in - yet bearing in mind that within the next 2 weeks markets will still likely face volatility spikes due to June inflation reading in the U.S. (ProfZero does not expect a major slowdown yet from May's 8.6%) and Q2 earning season
After Citi and Deutsche Bank located the probability of a recession in the U.S. at 50%, JP Morgan historical bull Marko Kolanovic reiterated his positive stance for a soft landing in the second half of the year, thanks to solid Chinese recovery and stabilizing geo-political conditions, including the conflict in Ukraine . As much as in May, ProfZero fails to share Mr. Kolanovic constructive tone. Although fully persuaded the war in Ukraine shall end, any tangible sign of relief for the world economy will take months to materialize. In China, President Xi has confirmed the country will achieve the 5.50% GDP growth target it set; yet, it remains to be seen then how the country will cope with its internal hurdles in real estate and rampant industrial overcapacity (steel)