Did someone forget we are in a bear market?INVESTMENT CONTEXT
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon stated at a banking conference that investors should brace for a "hurricane right out there down the road and coming our way"
At the same conference, Wells Fargo's CEO Charles Scharf added "the scenario of a soft landing is (...) extremely difficult to achieve in the environment (...) we're in today"
U.S. manufacturing data for May positively surprised, with the index declining to 56.1 vs. analyst expectations of 54.5 - demand apparently remains strong even amidst supply-chain constraints choking retail
Italy's natural gas distribution leader Snam bought a floating regasification terminal with capacity of 5 billion cubic meters a year from Golar LNG as efforts to diversify energy supply off from Russia gain pace
President Joe Biden is expected to be visiting Saudi Arabia later in June to discuss greater OPEC+ commitment to lift crude oil production in a bout to lower prices
PROFZERO'S TAKE
Equities are failing to keep up the rebound attempted last week, on the back of still weak fundamentals and waning technical support - Nasdaq testing the 12k mark in particular testifies that a much-awaited bounce back in tech stocks simply can't hold for now. Tellingly, Jamie Dimon's meteorological metaphors muted from "big storm clouds" just on May 23 to a "hurricane"; ProfZero won't broadcast on The Weather Channel, but definitely concurs the winds of volatility will be blowing strongly for a few quarters more
Encouraging signs from Saudi Arabia are tempering concerns of even higher crude oil prices due to Russia's output being squeezed by sanctions. OPEC+ largest producer indicated it will step in raising output should Russia's quota drop excessively - yet ProfZero argues that can't be expected happen too fast, given the cartel's clear liking for the current price environment. Call on President Biden to ease the increase
ProfZero won't say "I told you" - the big red candle on page 3 does an already excellent job reminding BTC traded in overbought territory for almost 2 sessions. Calling the bottom now? Only on stronger fundamentals
PROFONE'S TAKE
ProfOne set its eyes on lithium, indicated by IEA as the mineral for which demand was growing the fastest. Lithium price ballooned 68% since the beginning of 2022, and car manufacturers do not anticipate any easing for several years, now that the European Parliament just voted to ban the sale of new cars with combustion engine from 2035. Lithium demand is growing so rapidly that ProfOne understands why Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk wants to integrate upstream into lithium production. Lithium shares a common issue in the commodity space - 80% of the world’s lithium is mined in just 3 countries, namely Australia, Chile and China. Yet another head-scratching factor amidst talks of de-globalization and tighter supply chains
PROFTHREE'S TAKE
This week was rich in Purchasing Manager’s Indices (PMIs) print for May in China. Both the official manufacturing PMI and the Caixin gauge beat expectations, ticking up from April lows. Although the figures remain below the 50-point level which separates growth from contraction, the negative trend seems to have come to an end (or a hold) thanks to lifting in COVID-19 restrictions. ProfThree sees optimism over Shanghai reopening to continue, yet warns against being too naive to exclude the probability of another variant coming. With China’s economy reeling and limited headroom for monetary stimulus due to soaring inflation, it is too early to call a rebound. Profs remain cautious about this year’s economic perspectives for the country - and in a certain way for the (ex?) globalized world at large
JPM
JPM - Short Term Opportunity with 60% Upside?Given the tendency of banks benefitting from the periods when interest rates are rising, is JP Morgan going to provide investors an impressive 60% upside at these turbulent times?
Let's look at it in more detail.
Fundamental indicators:
Revenue and Profits - demonstrated consistent long-term earnings growth over the past 10 years
Profit margin - impressive 31% in 2021
P/E - 8.7x which is considerably lower than the current S&P500 ratio, i.e. very attractive
Liabilities - no problems with considering this is a banking sector
Technical Analysis (Elliott Waves):
Following the correction of March 2020 shares of JPM have been growing but in a very choppy manner which indicates a potential development of an Ending Diagonal pattern
Waves 1 to 3 have been already completed and we are observing the shaping of corrective wave 4. It has already entered the space of wave 1 bust just about and it's likely to correct a little deeper
Once wave 4 is completed this scenario suggests another zig-zag to the upside before global and very lengthy correction starts, that may last more than 2 years for JPM
What do you think about JP Morgan and its short term prospects?
Also let me know if you would like to see other stocks, indices, Forex or Crypto analysed using Elliott Waves.
Thanks
PS Below is the Educational post about Ending Diagonals
JPMorgan Falls Thru Trap-Door Equivalent to Pre-COVID HighsNot much of an explanation needed here... financials have been struggling, and JPM right along with them. What's notable here is that price has fallen below the pre-COVID highs, which means that all recapture, plus growth obtained prior to COVID, has all be vanished for stockholders of the mega-bank.
Written & Annotated for the CMT Association.
Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CEPA
President / Sr. Financial Advisor / Portfolio Manager
Libertas Wealth Management Group, Inc.
$XLF tons of overhead supply ; will the gaps fill?Financials on full display going into earnings . Will those GAPS fill? Keep them on your radar.
#XLF #JPM #C #BAC
Interest Rates continue to rise on 30 year home mortgages and the federal interest rates consumers begin feeling the pain of being both pushed out of the market and every direction they turn.
In most cases higher interest rates help the banks and some could say, “higher rates drive up prices, which increase companies earnings and consumer price index ( CPI );” however, I think many are overlapping the current with past recessions. In most cases that may work – but this time isn’t like any time of our past. The amount of headwinds on the global fronts and out of control printing of debt holistically.
In any case, I am cautious on banks with all the segments of their lives being impacted with oil , shipping, economic contraction, rising rates, etc. not to mention rising wages being outpaced by inflation and poverty increase by x-hundreds of thousands per month.
Tons of overhead supply that could be potential opportunities for entries on rejection. WILL THE GAPS FILL?
** What happens when households cannot afford to acquire loans and it’s too late for them to refinance their homes… just food for thought.
Trading Idea - #JPMorganMy trading idea for JP Morgan - SHORT / SELL
Entry: 133.20 USD
Target: 108.00 USD (+18% profit)
Stop: 146.10 USD
JPMorgan Chase & Co . is a global financial services company. The company operates in four segments: consumer & community banking ( CCB ), corporate & investment bank ( CIB ), commercial banking ( CB ) and asset & wealth management ( AWM ).
U.S. banks face huge earnings losses. First-quarter profit expectations for major banks have been cut considering the Russia sanctions and a severe slowdown in business activity.
JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) is the 17th most popular stock among hedge funds, according to a study by ClearBridge Investments. JPMorgan was in 107 hedge fund portfolios in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared with 101 in the previous quarter. Even with the increasing interest from institutional investors, the stock has lost about -20% in the last 3 months!
Insiders believe "JPMorgan Chase is too big to fail". JPMorgan is indeed an influencing giant of the financial world, but a share price recovery also depends on the global economy and its recovery.
In terms of the chart, we have been in a strong downtrend since November 2021. Again and again, there have been strong moves to counteract it. This has led to high volatility in the share. The SHORT momentum remains and solid ground by a support level is not really in sight.
$JPM Key Levels, Analysis, & Targets$JPM Key Levels, Analysis, & Targets
As long as MacD is under the centerline these are my targets.
I’m not sure how I’m going to play this yet, though…. I’ll wait until after earnings, and honestly I might wait on JPM for some of the lower targets… I've got my alerts set...
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I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
JPM - Too Soon for BuyNYSE:JPM is modelling the big orange arrow, mentioned on the chart, on its correction movement. For doing so, it has a PRZ of $112.4 zone (somewhen between May and July, 2022). If the price breakdown $127.8 low, both the PRZ and TRZ mentioned on the chart are valid for NYSE:JPM . For the next move, we can expect a buy position using trigger on the bottom of the channel (which is also our PRZ). However, it is too soon for thinking about buying this stock.
J-P MORGAN, On The VERGE To A PRECARIOUS BREAKDOWN!Hello,
Welcome to this analysis about JP Morgan And Chase on the monthly timeframe perspectives. The stock market is battered because of the ongoing war-dynamics and history has repeatedly shown that during such times the market is either going sideways or has a bearish edge, these indications should not be underestimated when assessing the stock market and stocks within the stock market and therefore there is a higher tendency for the market to show up with further bearish volatilities in the next times. When looking at my chart with JP Morgan And Chase now we can watch there that the stock is building a precarious massive formation which is actually an ascending-wedge-formation with a wave-count within the formation, such a formation normally signals a devastating reversal to emerge. Besides that JP Morgan and Chase has a decreasing-volatility-circle which means the bullish strength is decreasing more and more inclined with the actual wedge-formation forming here. Together with these crucial indications JP Morgan And Chase also forms this main RSI-Bearish-Divergence as a additional indication for this whole formation to be completed. Therefore when looking at these whole dynamics the bearish upcoming perspectives should in any case not be put from the desk here and once the target zone has been reached there is still the possibility that the stock continues further, it will be a critical development ahead.
In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, all the best!
"The high destiny of the market is to explicate, rather than to speculate."
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
JPM LongGiven the recent market selloff, the reversal forming on the daily, and with interest rates on the rise, financial companies will begin to rally again. I'm looking to take a long-term position in JPM, given they are a leader in the market and pay a high dividend. Aiming to take next January's ATM (140) calls.