China comes back to life, experts calculate lossesChina yesterday began to actively restore economic and industrial activity in the country. Judging by official figures, the epidemic has begun to decline, so there is reason to believe that the worst is over.
In this light, yesterday's growth in demand for risky assets is generally explainable. Perhaps the global economy in general, and China in particular, will get off easily. At least Bloomberg analysts believe that the impact of the epidemic on the economy will be extremely short-term. Although they note, in the first quarter of China's GDP growth will slow down to 4.5%.
In general, the uncertainty with economic damage is likely to be a factor restraining another bout of unbridled optimism in the financial markets.
The fact is that its scope can be more serious and tangible. For example, Simon McAdam from Capital Economics believes that the coronavirus will cost the world economy $ 280 billion and ultimately lead to the fact that the world economy in the first quarter of 2020 will not grow for the first time since 2009.
JPMorgan analysts expect China’s GDP to grow by only 1% y/y in the first quarter (they predicted an increase of 6% y/y before the epidemic). Goldman Sachs expects the coronavirus to subtract 2% from the global GDP.
And Morgan Stanley recently proposed how to measure the real extent of the downtime of the Chinese economy - by analyzing the level of air pollution. According to their calculations, air pollution in Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Chengdu is only 20-50% of historical values. This may mean that human activity here (transportation and industrial production) is only 50-80% of the usual.
In general, the optimists or pessimists will determine the dynamics of prices in financial markets on who ultimately turns out to be right. Uncertainty just hangs in the air, which means that for now, it is better to trade inside the day with small stops. We will look for points to buy gold and the Japanese yen intraday. We will sell oil at the time of its growth.
Also, we will buy the British pound. Yesterday's data on GDP (+ 1.1% y/y against the forecast of 0.8% y/y) and industrial production (+ 0.1% against the forecast + 0.3%) did not give rise to sales and important support 1,29. So, a rebound up is quite likely.
Jpmorgan
JPM Dark Pool Quiet DistributionJPM has been running well over the past quarter. However, as the fractional and odd lot new investors buy, the giant Buy Side Institutions are selling. The white candlesticks over the past few days reveal just how heavy the Dark Pool large lot selling is, as the gains are below the previous highs. The risk is that the new investors may run out of capital, which could create a sell down at least temporarily.
ANALYSIS OF JP MORGAN 20.11.2019The price above 200 MA, indicating a growing trend.
The MACD histogram is above the zero lines.
The oscillator Force Index is above the zero lines.
If the level of resistance is broken, you should follow the recommendations below:
• Timeframe: H4
• Recommendation: Long Position
• Entry Level: Long Position 131.10
• Take Profit Level: 132.50 (140 pips)
If the price rebound from resistance level, you should follow the recommendations below:
• Timeframe: H4
• Recommendation: Short Position
• Entry Level: Short Position 130.00
• Take Profit Level: 129.50 (50 pips)
USDJPY
A possible short position in the breakdown of the level 108.30
GOLD
A possible long position at the breakout of the level 1479.00
USDCHF
A possible long position at the breakout of the level 0.9920
GBPUSD
A possible long position at the breakout of the level 1.2990
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Goldman Sacks warns that buybacks are ‘plummeting,’Goldman warns that buybacks are ‘plummeting,’ ending a big source of buying power for the market
Corporate buybacks are “plummeting” as companies tighten their purse strings, and it could have a big impact on the market, Goldman Sachs warned in a note to clients.
In the second quarter, S&P 500 share buybacks totaled $161 billion, about 18% less than the first quarter, the firm found. The amount spent on buybacks this year is down 17% from a year earlier, although it is on track to be the second highest total on record, Goldman said.
The firm anticipates that this trend will continue, saying “early indications suggest second-quarter weakness in buybacks may persist.”
For 2019, total buybacks will drop 15% to $710 billion, and in 2020 they see a 5% decline to $675 billion, the firm predicted.
Share repurchases have been a key element during this bull market, the longest on record. By repurchasing shares, a company reduces the number of shares outstanding. It can have the effect of boosting the stock price and lifts earnings per share figures.
It’s a frequent, but not always popular, move for companies. Some argue that instead of using buybacks, companies should invest more in capital investments. And Washington is taking note. The House Financial Services Committee, for instance, is looking at ways to reform buyback spending laws.
All spending is slowing
The slowdown in buybacks is part of a larger trend of spending cuts, Goldman found, as trade uncertainty and stalling global growth weigh on the market.
Total cash spending fell by 4% year over year in the first half of the year, according to the firm. It anticipates cash spending for the entire year will decline by 6%, making it the sharpest yearly decline since 2009.
During the third quarter “CEO confidence plummeted to the lowest level since the Global Financial Crisis,” Goldman said. It cited a recent study from Duke University that found a majority of CFOs expect the U.S. will be in a recession within the next year.
“Companies spend less cash when policy uncertainty is high. During August, global economic policy uncertainty registered the highest level in at least 20 years. Historically, growth in aggregate S&P 500 cash spending has been weaker during periods of high policy uncertainty. The combination of an ongoing trade conflict and next year’s US presidential election will likely result in lingering uncertainty,” Goldman’s David Kostin wrote
Analysis of JP MORGAN 18.10.2019The price above 200 MA, indicating a growing trend.
The MACD histogram is above the zero lines.
The oscillator Force Index is above the zero lines.
If the level of resistance is broken, you should follow the recommendations below:
• Timeframe: H4
• Recommendation: Long Position
• Entry Level: Long Position 121.40
• Take Profit Level: 123.00 (160 pips)
If the price rebound from resistance level, you should follow the recommendations below:
• Timeframe: H4
• Recommendation: Short Position
• Entry Level: Short Position 119.00
• Take Profit Level: 118.50 (50 pips)
USDJPY
A possible long position at the breakout of the level 108.75
GOLD
A possible short position in the breakdown of the level 1484.00
USDCHF
A possible short position in the breakdown of the level 0.9865
GBPUSD
A possible long position at the breakout of the level 1.2920
Weekly Ascending triangle on JPM, $145-150 target?JPM currently has an ascending triangle forming the weekly, with a flat line of resistance around 118 and a rising line of support. Price is getting toward the end of the pattern here, and we had a bit of a false break-out into a decent sell down. However, price is still respecting the rising trend-line support and it had a decent buy-back before last weeks weekly close. The measured move of a potential break-out would give us a price target around $145-150.
Also, for any crypto traders out there, Binance just launched their US exchange (Binance US.) If you need a link to go sign up, click here--> www.binance.us
MA Guide (All weekly for this post):
50 MA in Green.
200 MA in Red.
-This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk. I am not liable for any incurred losses or financial distress.
LONG - JPM - Trading OpportunityNYSE:JPM trying to break the resistance that has been stopping it for the past 2 years, with the monthly candle closing tonight, it will probably have completed the breakthrough, which means that a good entry with a stop loss below is quite the safe trade, as it hasn't pumped much past the resistance, but enough to confirm our idea.
Target 1: 136
This is where we will take our first share of profits, then we will proceed with a trailing stop-loss.
SL: 106.99
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JPMorgan Values Energy StocksThis year, the U.S. industry energy recognized the second-worst performing group of stocks. They belong in the S&P 500.
Meanwhile, a record of 5.3% higher was also seen. It is in comparison to the advance of 19% broader measure.
The incident is despite the devotion from Wall Street analysts. Moreover, they go on despite votes of self-confidence from the likes of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management and interest from some Asian investors.
On September 26, JPMorgan’s Dubvrako Lakos-Bujas wrote in a statement that the note renewed an April phone call. It is to buy shares of energy surveyors and producers.
Lakos-Bujas stated, “Investor complacency toward energy is perplexing.”
He also added, “The market should assign a structural premium to the equity-oil complex with the Middle East currently a geopolitical tinderbox.”
At this time, positioning, sentiment, and valuations are at bearish margins for the sector, JPMorgan said.
In a news report, systematic funds were seen to underweight oil and institutional investors “have abandoned” it.
This is regardless of the fact that an insider purchases cycle highs. In addition, the buyback announcements have been strong, and dividends stood high.
Rising Bond Yields to Back Stocks
Elsewhere, several of JPMorgan Chase & Co’s clients are upset regarding the rise in bond yields that could endanger the stock market rally.
On the flip side, especially for the broker and a number of significant fund managers, it’s actually a blessing.
This month’s retreat in fixed income has driven concerns about the probable risk to the equity bull run.
The stock market has resisted the doomsayers. Improved economic optimism was the reason behind the leap in yields
Moreover, it has encouraged the likes of Eaton Vance Management and Fidelity International to say that the rally can continue.
The flight from havens and crowded bond alternatives has prompted a switch into equity sectors. These are the ones are more sensitive to the economy.
Additional Widening of The Gains
In a note to clients, JPMorgan indicated that the expanding of the gains might include value and cyclical stocks that will support the rally.
In the past decade, equities grew every time bond yields dashed by at least 50 basis points. It is then climbing by 6 percent on average.
The reason for the shift in sentiment is key to understanding the equity market’s indifferent attitude toward the bond market sell-off.
Meanwhile, the rise in yields occurred amid optimism that the US-China trade talks will continue.
To which is a positive indication for economic growth and as a consequence, for stocks.