Charles Schwab - The Harbinger Of The Next Crisis?While I believe that the markets are currently standing on the edge of a cliff and will not produce a new all time high, it's very important to note that price action is yet to confirm that, with the most significant catalyst of them all being Wednesday's FOMC.
Wednesday's FOMC is important because whether the Fed hikes again and how much they hike will determine what happens with bond yields, which determines what happens to bond prices (inverse correlation), which determines what will happen with the U.S. Petrodollar.
There's no FOMC again until September.
I discuss what I think will happen this week in the following call:
ES SPX Futures - Welcome to FOMCmageddon
Charles Schwab is an important piece of the U.S. banking structure because it's the 10th largest bank in the country.
When you take a look at recent price action on banks, everything seems to be going pretty well, and it's almost as if the Silicon Valley Bank crisis never happened.
SIVB's demise, however, was a really significant canary in the coal mine because that particular bank was not only one of the largest in the country, but a major intermediary between the West's venture capital community and the Chinese Communist Party.
You just absolutely have to keep an eye on what's going on with China and the International Rules Based Order right now, because everything "Taiwan War" is really talking about how the globalists can take control of China as the CCP falls.
Based on this, I think Taiwan Semiconductor is a significant long hedge right now because it's not a component of the U.S. indexes, and is a world leader in silicon wafer production:
TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge
China is the world's 5,000 year country and has huge natural resources and a huge population of very sophisticated people, so it's a target.
If Xi Jinping is smart, he will weaponize the 24-year persecution, organ harvesting, and genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million believers to protect himself and the Motherland.
But if he does this it means that the entire world will quickly be implicated in the Nero-like persecution of spiritual cultivators of an upright faith. The impact on the markets, our society, and our reality will be extreme.
And oh so hard to bear.
I can only say if you want to be long at this point, you need to be hedged long on volatility or you might die.
VIX - The 72-Handle Prelude
The enormous Schwab dump from March, which you primarily see was a fully manifested failure swing only on the monthly bars:
Was spurred on by the banking crisis, which served as a prelude to the very significant bear market rally we've had.
Now everyone believes new highs are in order and everything is going to be fine. It's time to go long, go on vacation, and collect money while being hammered in a speedo at the beach with the other men.
What a painful hangover.
The problem with the more up more right now crowd's thesis on Schwab is that the entire range above where we're at, and we're already flirting with the 79% retrace of the March gap down, was already filled, which we see on the weekly:
Moreover, there are two significant price action problems with the bull case from a market maker perspective.
The first is that Schwab dumped to exactly $45.00 in the first place. Computers don't like preserving round numbers and people just love to put stops under/at psychologically significant whole numbers.
The second is that the COVID dump was likewise $28.00. And for the same reasons, that's even more dangerous.
I am predisposed to believe that Schwab is likely to be the next Credit Suisse-style big short, and may even be the vanguard for the next crisis that would take us under SPX 4,200 and towards 3,700 in accordance with the new JPM collar, which I discuss below:
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'
As for what the fundamental story will be, it's very hard to say.
But let's compare Schwab's monthly bars you see above to some other top 10 banks:
Bank of America Monthly
Does not show any indication of failure swings and really just looks like a healthy retrace.
While Wells Fargo does not look strong enough, it also does not yet indicate a real short setup on higher time frames
And this is even more true for JP Morgan
And Goldman Sachs
Which can be, at worst, only be said to be setting up for the first leg of a failure swing. At worst.
And thus it is extremely notable that Charles Schwab is as weak as it is.
My call is the thesis that the optimal short entry is already here, with some kind of flirtation with the $70.00 mark due for FOMC.
And if Schwab and the banking sector and the equities sector are truly bullish, that would be great, but I still expect a stab back into the "wick play" area before it would move to set a new all time high, which means $69 to $50 is really quite the win if you're short and quite the loss if you're longing the top or haven't taken profits.
If Schwab and the banking sector are really the catalyst for something as disastrous as Nasdaq 9,000, then the target is under $28 and you're more or less standing on the edge of The Big Short.
Right now, with the VIX as suppressed as it is and price as high as it is, January '25 $55 puts are only $3.7~ with at the money puts being $8.3~
Just selling them on a flirt with $50 again, let alone $44.99, is already a big win.
Humans never believe in anything until they can see it. It's one of their worst deficiencies.
Jpmorgan
JPMorgan Chase: Seizing Opportunities Amid Rising RatesJPMorgan Chase's Strategic Brilliance: Capitalizing on Opportunities Amid Rising Interest Rates
JPMorgan Chase has proven itself to be a master of foresight and exceptional management, evident in their strategic moves over the past years. In 2021, the bank took proactive measures by building up cash reserves, anticipating a potential rise in interest rates. This calculated fiscal approach allowed them to pounce on a golden opportunity to acquire First Republic Bank on favorable terms after federal regulators took over the bank earlier this year.
The fruits of their foresight and strong leadership became apparent in the second quarter, as JPMorgan experienced a remarkable surge in revenue and net income. This growth was driven by the advantageous impact of higher interest rates and the successful integration of First Republic Bank into their operations.
JPMorgan Chase's impressive performance marked the beginning of the latest earnings season for banks. Surpassing analysts' expectations for the second quarter, the bank achieved a significant victory, with both its total revenue and adjusted earnings per share exceeding Refinitiv's estimates by a remarkable 9%. This reaffirmed JPMorgan's position as the largest bank in the U.S.
One of the key factors contributing to their success was the substantial increase in net interest income, reaching $21.8 billion during the quarter. This marked a 5% increase from the previous quarter and an impressive 44% surge compared to the same period last year. The Federal Reserve's continued aggressive interest rate policy in response to the ongoing fight against inflation played a crucial role in this growth.
Higher interest rates have proven advantageous for banks, widening their interest rate spread and boosting net interest income. JPMorgan Chase skillfully leveraged this scenario to its benefit, resulting in a stellar performance in the quarter.
The bank's other income also experienced a substantial boost, totaling $3.3 billion compared to $599 million in the previous year. A significant bargain purchase gain of $2.7 billion resulting from the acquisition of First Republic Bank contributed to this surge. However, the acquisition also led to an additional $1.8 billion provision for credit losses and other expenses.
JPMorgan's CEO, Jamie Dimon, demonstrated remarkable foresight when he warned investors about the potential for inflationary pressures back in April 2021. While prevailing optimism believed in the continuation of good times, Dimon's cautionary stance proved wise as interest rates rose higher than expected.
Thanks to their strong balance sheet and substantial cash reserves, JPMorgan was well-prepared to navigate the challenges posed by higher interest rates. While other banks struggled, JPMorgan's strategic positioning allowed them to seize opportunities in the rising interest rate environment. Their ability to submit a competitive bid and successfully acquire First Republic Bank at a favorable price showcased their keen decision-making and ability to capitalize on prevailing opportunities.
In conclusion, JPMorgan Chase's prudent management, timely warnings about inflation, and strategic positioning with substantial cash reserves have proven to be the driving forces behind their continued success in today's dynamic economic landscape. With an astute understanding of market conditions and a proactive approach to risk management, JPMorgan continues to set a high standard in the financial industry.
TurnAround Point: 147.00
Our preference
Long positions Above 147.00 with targets at 158.00 & 162.00 in extension.
JPM JPMorgan Chase Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold JPM here:
or bought it here:
Then analyzing the options chain of JPM JPMorgan Chase prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 145usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-7-21,
for a premium of approximately $4.15.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
JP MORGAN This rally has more room to growJP Morgan is trading inside a Channel Up on a strong 1D technical timeframe (RSI = 68.279, MACD = 2.320, ADX = 18.509). Supported by the 1D MA50, this bullish leg can potentially rally more. If it repeats the rise of the previous, it can hit both R1 and R2 but since R1 is neatly located at the top of the Channel Up, we will buy and pursue this as target (TP = 156.00).
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JPM to find buyers at previous swing highs?JPMorgan Chase - 30d expiry - We look to Buy at 143.33 (stop at 140.33)
The primary trend remains bullish.
This is currently an actively traded stock.
Price action continues to trade around significant highs.
Previous resistance at 144 now becomes support.
We look to buy dips.
This stock has seen good sales growth.
Our profit targets will be 150.83 and 152.83
Resistance: 149.87 / 157.00 / 163.50
Support: 147.50 / 144.00 / 142.00
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
JPMorganstock is breaking through the upper limit!JP Morgan stock is breaking through the upper limit!
This chart shows the weekly level candle chart of JP Morgan stock in the past two years. The graph overlays the top to bottom golden section at the end of 2021. As shown in the figure, the low point of JP Morgan stock at the end of 2022 happens to be around 3.414 points in the golden section, and the high point in November happens to be 1.618 points in the golden section. The high points in January, March, and May this year are exactly 1.382 points in the golden section! Now that JP Morgan stock has broken the upper limit, it is about to test the first wave of low points at the end of 2021 from the top to the bottom!
JPMThis is my channel setup with cross hairs of target and expirations for options ideas. I have the indicator to set the 2 zone accumulation boxes that we break and reverse down to if we reject at the top of the rectangle The first green zone is the accumulation for the potential run up.
We have to break above 144-149 chop to start signal our bullish divergence if we fall below 130 we will watch for a theta burn CUP drop accumulation move menaing this was a bulltrap accumulation setup and have to look at the contraction point 98-112. This is macro so its a funnel opportunity
Mid-Range Trade opportunity on JP MorganHere is a good trade opportunity on JP Morgan.
I will wait for the breakout of the resistance level and then enter after a successful retest to the resistance level, and if it fails to break the resistance level and breaks the lower trend I will Exit and close the trade.
1- You can get around 11% profit easily.
2- It might take 1-2 months.
3- There is also a dividend declared by the company ( Ex-date: 5th July 2023).
4- This is one of the most reputed and large-cap companies, so it should be considered safe!
5- Follow the instructions on the chart carefully, Feel free to modify the trade according to your risk.
Disclaimer: This is not a piece of investment advice and I am not a certified financial advisor, I just found an opportunity and thought it would be great to share it with the community, Invest at your own risk, and feel free to modify the trade according to your risk profile.
Trading JPM in current range.JPMorgan Chase - 30d expiry - We look to Buy at 134.65 (stop at 131.65)
We look to trade the current range.
This is currently an actively traded stock.
This stock has seen good sales growth.
The primary trend remains bullish.
Bespoke support is located at 134.50.
Our profit targets will be 142.15 and 144.15
Resistance: 141.50 / 143.37 / 144.34
Support: 138.13 / 136.50 / 134.50
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
JPMorgan: A Wise Investment Choice Amidst Market FluctuationsOver the past few months, the stock market for banks has undergone significant fluctuations due to various factors, including interest rates, economic conditions, and notable bank failures. It's important to note that not all banks have been affected in the same manner. Despite the volatility, several major banks have adeptly navigated through these challenging times and achieved positive financial results.
One standout performer in the previous quarter was JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in the United States. As we enter the uncertain second half of 2023, it's worth examining the position of this influential player in the industry. Investors may also be interested in determining whether this particular stock is a wise investment choice.
Even before the regional banking crisis unfolded in March, JPMorgan Chase had already distinguished itself as one of the most resilient large banks in the country. In fact, it appears that the bank may have emerged even stronger from that period of turmoil. Several key factors contribute to this assessment, which we will explore further.
First and foremost, while many banks experienced a decrease in deposits, JPMorgan Chase saw a notable 2% increase in Q1 compared to the previous quarter, bringing the total to $2.4 trillion. This growth in deposits can be attributed to concerns among customers of smaller and regional banks, who feared widespread deposit runs following the collapses of Silicon Valley and Signature banks. As a result, these customers sought refuge in larger institutions, driven by a flight towards perceived safety and stability. JPMorgan Chase, being a well-capitalized, highly liquid, and heavily regulated bank, became an attractive option for depositors seeking these qualities.
The flight to safety observed during the challenging period proved beneficial for JPMorgan Chase, resulting in a strong performance during the first quarter. The company experienced a significant 25% increase in net revenue, amounting to $39.3 billion, primarily driven by a substantial 49% year-over-year growth in net interest income. Notably, during their investor day on May 22, JPMorgan Chase's executives shared that the bank is on track to add 1.8 million accounts this year, surpassing the previous year's gain of 1.6 million accounts.
The bank's net income showed remarkable progress, rising by 52% compared to the previous year and 15% compared to the fourth quarter, reaching $12.6 billion. This growth can be attributed to positive developments in consumer banking, commercial banking, and asset and wealth management, which offset declines in investment banking. Additionally, JPMorgan Chase achieved an impressive efficiency ratio, with overhead costs as a percentage of revenue improving from 62% in Q1 of the previous year to a commendable 52%, the best performance among large banks (lower values are preferable). Moreover, the bank's overall return on equity, a measure of management efficiency, surged from 13% a year ago to 18% by the end of the first quarter.
While JPMorgan Chase may face challenges in the event of an economic slowdown or recession, it possesses key strengths that enable it to navigate short-term volatility. These strengths include operational efficiency, a high Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 13.9%, a rising book value (up 9% year over year), and a substantial $1.4 trillion in cash and marketable securities. These factors contribute to the bank's robust balance sheet, providing resilience in difficult market conditions.
Furthermore, JPMorgan Chase is well-positioned to seize growth opportunities beyond any potential downturn. As the markets improve, the bank is expected to experience long-term gains in investment banking, trading, and asset management. Additionally, the acquisition of First Republic Bank, which serves high-net-worth clients, is anticipated to enhance JPMorgan Chase's annual profit by $500 million, acting as a catalyst for further growth.
The company also foresees greater net interest income (NII) than initially projected. JPMorgan Chase has raised its NII forecast for 2023 to $81 billion, up from the previous estimate of $80 billion. This upward revision is based on the assumption that deposit and other funding costs will decrease, driven by expected interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve later in the year.
Furthermore, JPMorgan Chase's stock is currently trading at a relatively inexpensive price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 10. This makes it an appealing investment choice, as the bank is well-equipped to handle short-term challenges while aiming for long-term growth.
Taking everything into consideration, including its resilience, growth prospects, and favorable valuation, JPMorgan Chase appears to be an excellent buy at present, offering a combination of stability and potential for long-term gains. The bank's solid performance, strong financial position, and strategic initiatives position it favorably in the industry. However, as with any investment, it is important for investors to conduct thorough research and consider their own risk tolerance before making any decisions.
PREDICTION XAUUSD 18-19 MEI 2023Hello I'm back again.
I will share the XAUUSD market direction movement for today.
Pay attention to the boundary area that I have specified where there are points that must be considered
Confirmation area as a determinant of whether to continue direction or reversal
Base Lev as a point if the breakout will continue the next area
This analysis is only a view, for that it remains to be re-analyzed according to your views. Hope it is useful
Thank You
Come and Join
USD/JPY - Japan's GDP improves but yen slipsThe Japanese yen is on a four-day losing streak and is in negative territory on Wednesday. In the North American session, the yen is trading at 137.39, up 0.74% on the day.
Japan's GDP in the first quarter was higher than expected. The economy grew by 1.6% y/y, after a 0.1% decline in Q4 2022 and easily beat the estimate of 0.7%. On a quarterly basis, GDP expanded by 0.4%, up from 0.0% in Q4 and above the estimate of 0.1%.
One key driver behind the spurt in growth was personal consumption, as demand continues to rise now that the country has reopened. The services sector remains strong but manufacturing continues to struggle. On a sour note, exports fell 4.2% in Q4, as demand for semiconductors and automobiles declined.
The uptick in growth means that sustainable inflation could stay above 2%, and that could prod the Bank of Japan to take steps toward normalization, such as adjusting its yield curve control (YCC) policy. The BoJ has said it would consider tightening policy if inflation is sustainable above 2%, but any shifts in policy are likely to be small, especially if the yen remains weak. The BoJ announced it would conduct a policy review which could take a year or more, and I would not expect the BoJ to raise rates before 2024.
Federal Reserve members continued to remind listeners that more rate hikes are possible if inflation stays high. The Fed has also tried to dampen expectations of rate cuts in the second half of the year. The markets are listening somewhat, as the odds of a rate cut this year have fallen. JP Morgan came out in support of rate cuts on Tuesday, saying that "the market is right to be penciling in cuts", as inflation remains too high and the US was likely headed for a recession.
USD/JPY is testing resistance at 137.08. Above, the next resistance line is 138.42
There is support at 136.26 and 135.08
JP Morgan boss plays down risk of crisisBEARISH MID TEM
BULLISH SHORT TERM
JP Morgan boss plays down risk of crisis
THE MARKET IS FULL OF MANIPULATIONS Spoofing
Spoofing - This involves placing orders with no intention of executing them, in order to create a false impression of market demand or supply, and then cancelling the orders once the market has moved in the desired direction.
We're keeping an eye on the market makers, zooming in for a closer look."
Spoofing and Volume Point of Control (VPOC) are terms used in the context of market manipulation and market analysis in financial markets.
A spoofing detector is a tool developed to detect the spoofing of orders. Spoofing refers to a practice where a market participant places large orders to deceive other market participants and influence the price of a stock. These large orders, however, are not executed but cancelled shortly after, creating a false demand for a specific stock and influencing the price. A spoofing detector can use algorithms to detect and report these practices to maintain the integrity of the market.
The Volume Point of Control (VPOC) is a concept in technical analysis aimed at identifying the key price level at which a stock was bought and sold. VPOC is calculated by analyzing the volume data of a stock and determining the price level at which the largest volume was traded for a specific period. This price level can serve as an indicator of the current market trend and market interest in a specific stock.
There is a substantive connection between a spoofing detector and VPOC because both tools can be used to gain a better understanding of the stock markets and detect potential forms of market manipulation. For example, VPOC can be used as an indicator of potential market manipulation when an abnormal distribution of trading volume is observed at a specific price level. A spoofing detector can then be used to detect and report these activities.
Jamie Dimon, the boss of JP Morgan, has played down the risk of a spiralling banking crisis after America’s biggest bank stepped in to buy most of collapsed lender First Republic in a $10.6bn (£8.5bn) takeover hurriedly brokered by US regulators.
After weekend talks to secure a sale of First Republic, the third US lender to fail this year, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) confirmed JP Morgan as the buyer.
The regulator is providing $50bn of financing and promising to share loan losses, as part of a deal that further cements JP Morgan’s position as the largest lender in the US.
First Republic’s failure is the second largest in US banking history, beaten only by the 2008 demise of Washington Mutual – which was also seized by the FDIC and sold to JP Morgan.
Speaking on a conference call, Dimon played down any other similarities with the 2008 crash, which triggered the start of an international financial crisis that plunged the global economy into recession.
He said the US banking system was “extraordinarily sound”, adding that the takeover meant the sector was “getting near the end” of the spate of bank collapses and would “hopefully help stabilise everything”.
The failure of First Republic follows that of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank. The sequence has prompted concerns about a repeat of the contagion that characterised the global banking crisis.
Dimon said conditions were “nothing like 2008 and 2009 for a lot of different reasons”. However, he conceded that if the US economy went into recession and high interest rates persisted, that could lead to “other cracks in the system”.
Under the terms of the First Republic deal, JP Morgan will acquire all of the California-based bank’s deposits and “substantially all of the assets”, winning out over as many as five rivals reportedly in the running.
Dimon said: “Our government invited us and others to step up, and we did. This acquisition modestly benefits our company overall, it is accretive to shareholders, it helps further advance our wealth strategy, and it is complementary to our existing franchise.”
First Republic, which focused on high-net-worth clients, got into financial difficulty after customers began pulling deposits from any US lender perceived as weak, after the SVB collapse.
Growing anxiety about the health of the US banking sector has forced the Federal Reserve to launch emergency measures to stabilise the markets.
A group of 11 Wall Street banks had pumped $30bn into First Republic last month in an attempt to avoid the third bank failure of 2023. However, shares in the San Francisco-based bank fell by more than 75% last week after it revealed customers had withdrawn $100bn of deposits in March.
TREND SHORT
KEY LEVELS
119
109
87
JPM JPMorgan Chase Call OptionsIf you haven`t sold JPM here:
or here:
then you should know that JPM JPMorgan Chase seems to be most capitalized bank in the US, ready for the economic hurricane that its CEO, Jamie Dimon, predicted.
Most business and retail clients will move their funds to JPM after this bank run.
Looking at the JPM JPMorgan Chase options chain, I would buy the $140 strike price Calls with
2023-7-21 expiration date for about
$3.95 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
JPM: No CrisisRecord first-quarter revenue on Friday that topped analysts’ expectations as net interest income surged almost 50% from a year ago on higher rates.
Here’s what the company reported:
Adjusted earnings: $4.32 per share vs. $3.41 per share Refinitiv estimate
Revenue: $39.34 billion, vs. $36.19 billion
The bank said profit jumped 52% to $12.62 billion, or $4.10 per share, in the first three months of the year. That figure includes HKEX:868 million in losses on securities; excluding those losses lifts earnings by 22 cents per share, resulting in adjusted profit of $4.32 per share.
Companywide revenue rose 25% to $39.34 billion, driven by a 49% rise in net interest income to $20.8 billion, thanks to the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive rate-hiking campaign in decades. That topped analysts’ expectations for interest income by more than a billion dollars.
The bank also boosted a key piece of guidance that bodes well for the near future: Net interest income will be about HKEX:81 billion this year, about HKEX:7 billion more than their previous forecast of $74 billion, CFO Jeremy Barnum said Friday.
The change was mostly driven by expectations that JPMorgan will have to pay less to depositors later this year if the Fed cuts rates, he said.
Shares of the bank rose 7.5%. That is its biggest upside move on an earnings report in more than 20 years, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
“The U.S. economy continues to be on generally healthy footings — consumers are still spending and have strong balance sheets, and businesses are in good shape,” CEO Jamie Dimon said in a release.
“However, the storm clouds that we have been monitoring for the past year remain on the horizon, and the banking industry turmoil adds to these risks,” he said, adding that the industry could rein in lending as banks become more conservative ahead of a possible downturn.
Money in, money out
JPMorgan, the biggest U.S. bank by assets, is watched closely for clues on how the industry fared after the collapse of two regional lenders last month. Analysts had expected JPMorgan to benefit from an influx of deposits after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank experienced fatal bank runs.
Indeed, JPMorgan saw “significant new account opening activity” and deposit inflows in its commercial bank, Barnum said.
The money flows implied “an intra-quarter reversal of the recent outflow trend as a consequence of the March events,” Barnum said. “We estimate that we have retained approximately HKEX:50 billion of these deposit inflows at quarter-end.”
JPM / JP Morgan - Don't Gamble On Regional BanksI know that whenever something drops by 30 or 50 or 70 percent in one or two days it seems like you might be able to smash buy and ride the bounce back to the top, but just take a look at how well that worked out for tech stocks once the market started to correct at the end of 2021, or just take a look at how well that worked for Silicon Valley Bank dip buyers who found their shares worth $0 in a few hours.
JP Morgan and the other big American banks aren't just "big American banks," but the financial arm of the United States' military industrial complex. Moreover, they're something that's become a pillar of the entire world's financial ecosystem. The heart of the world's economy is in Manhattan, but they're also the ones responsible for providing a financial life line (a blood transfusion) to the Chinese Communist Party all of these years.
Here's some things everyone should think about:
1. Regional banks are not a buy, because they need to be eliminated for Central Bank Digital Currencies
2. SWIFT itself is expanding its CBDC platform pilot globally after a test run that involved a JP Morgan-created centralized fork of Ethereum .
3. CBDCs are required for the global implementation of the CCP's social credit credit system
4. CBDCs mean citizen and small business banking becomes centralized in Federal Reserve proxy accounts ran through the biggest banks
5. Welcome to communism. The purpose of all of this is to install communism for the purposes of attempting to change the human living condition.
Credit Suisse is probably going to implode for real and that's going to cause some chaos for the markets. This play is pretty much a mirror of the 2008 GFC with Bear Sterns, which everyone would do well to educate themselves on how that went down .
The problem with Central Bank QE isn't all the Libertarian crap you've been told. The problem is that deposits are a liability for banks because they have to pay interest on them, and so they need to seek yield. Seeking yield on a very large position is very hard, because guys like JPM and Blackrock and Vanguard happen to make the markets, and markets are a euphemism for a casino, and casinos are zero sum games where there's a small number of winners and a large number of losers.
And so when there's no interest rates, banks have to take risks to generate cashflow to pay interest to the very, very large depositors. When QE was hot that seemed to have meant long bonds, long equities. And then the Fed raised rates 5 percent while they were holding a lot of equities and bonds and now those bonds and equities aren't worth very much.
So they're red on their positions and can't HODL through it because of bank runs and go under.
It's as simple as that and it was an engineered play for smaller banks to be destroyed and then the big banks buy the liquidations.
It's the same as how whales kill sharks by holding them upside down in the water, which makes them disoriented and paralyzed, and then the whales eat their livers and leave them to die.
JPM on the monthly is not likely to have topped and gives you no reason to think there's a financial crash or any real bearishness brewing:
Yet the weekly shows you confluence between Fib levels and gaps, and that it's just too early to go long, and kind of scary to scalp short to boot:
JPM's double tops at $145 made very little sense at the time, and that's because, in my opinion, they were short their own stock under $150 in anticipation of what everyone who's running big data analysis for real knew, that SIVB and SBNY and SI would collapse, that CS was a bloated corpse in the river that the Swiss National Bank couldn't save, and that it was time to start taking down the regional banks by using the crisis as an opportunity.
Naturally, being a bank and part of the sector, this will give grounds to make JPM's shares drop, so they just sell, and then buy back, and then give themselves bonuses and go for happy hour with cocaine and strippers when the drama is over because someone buys CS and the Fed pauses hikes, and they pump their own stock back to $200.
Another thing is that the narrative is that equities are *going2themoon* because the Federal Reserve just HAS to stop hiking rates now. Look at how much damage the rate hikes caused! They just have to stop hiking now!
They probably won't. FOMC hasn't led to a dumpster fire in quite a few months and you should be concerned about that.
After Wednesday's FOMC, the next one afterwards is May 2. Expect them to pivot then, not now, and for May, June, July to become another "most hated rally" for bears.
Except this time it won't be a bear market rally, but a bump and run reversal, that pumps tech and other dumpster trash to a new ATH that makes bears blow their accounts.
Look for longs in the $110 range on JPM and expect the October bottom to hold, because it's called a pivot for a reason, sons.
It's JP Morgan. This kind of disaster in the markets today was arranged by them, and is not something they're personally subject to.
The disasters that lie ahead for the current regime because of what they've been doing to help the CCP as it persecutes Falun Gong over the last 24 years are retribution that they haven't arranged and that nobody can dodge, and something that will catch the entire market off guard.
But for now, you can get $40 a share if you buy in the $110s and sell at $150. And the time horizon is probably literally no later than the end of May, too.
Don't go long on regional banks. Go long on the big banks. And then get out and be careful, because everything in this world is about to change very quickly, and human beings are not going to be able to bear the terribleness of what happens when the regime goes to install communism worldwide.
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. Options Ahead Of EarningsIf you haven`t sold JPM here:
Then looking at the JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. options chain ahead of earnings , I would buy the FWB:124 strike price Puts with
2023-4-14 expiration date for about
$1.35 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
JP Morgan HnS Dragon with Bearish ConvergenceJPM after Bearishly Engulfing on the Monthly has formed a bit of a Head and Shoulders pattern while at the sametime forming a Bearish Dragon with some MACD Bearish Convergence as the RSI enters the Bearish Control Zone if price continues to do what it's doing i could see JPM making a full 0.886 Retrace.
JP Morgan mostly unaffected from the banking turmoil of early MaJP Morgan Chase & Co (symbol ‘JPM’) share price has been making consecutive gains in the beginning of the year with a correction taking place in early March where the failure of banks in the US shocked the markets . The company is expected to report its earnings for the fiscal quarter ending March 2023 on Friday 14th of April. The consensus EPS for the quarter is $3,43 compared to the result for the same quarter last year of $2,63.
‘JP Morgan took a light hit through the turmoil in the banking industry mainly because of its big size, too big to fail. With a dividend yield of over 3% and with a strong balance sheet, the company is an attractive addition to investors portfolio.’ said Antreas Themistokleous at Exness.
From the technical analysis perspective the price found support on the 38.2% of the daily Fibonacci retracement level after incurring losses in early March when news about bank failures hit mainstream media. The Bollinger bands are shrinking indicating the volatility is slowing down while the 50 day moving average is still trading above the 100 day moving average indicating the bullish momentum might still be valid.
In any case the levels of $134 and $123 consist of technical support and resistance areas since they are the 23.6% and 50% of the daily Fibonacci retracement levels respectively.
JP Morgan locally correcting. JPMBounce off a local resistance, which I did not show, sinking in the phase of a possible B Wave. Very short term out look of a ~5% drop in stock price or more. ATR (moving) for Stop.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Confirmation level, where relevant, is a pink dotted, finite line. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe.
Will tomorrow be the day $JPM drops to $71? I think it could >It sounds a little nuts, I know. But hear me out. We clearly have a double touch on the upper channel line on the 12 month- clear rejection. The 9 MA on the yearly looks awful too. General weakness, there and within the stoch rsi and mac d. The 3 month also looks awful. Let's hone in though on the 9 MA and 20 MA on the chart though- they're clearly about to fall through them. Oh, not to mention, the major obvious head & shoulders pattern. Everything looks horrible. Almost makes me wonder if the speech wasn't "awful" news today because tomorrow is the real drop, when everyone thinks the worst is out of the way... who knows? I just call the technical analysis like I see it. And based on the daily time frame anyway, I don't see anywhere else that JPM could LOGICALLY retrace to... so why would it? Time to drop :)