Jpmorganchase
GUESS WHAT ?! STILL UPTREND.... After a huge drop in the crypto market, we are prepared to slowly rise. All important BUY lvls are marked on the chart. These perfect lvls will help you to maximize your profits and make better decisions.
I drew 2 possible scenarios based on my strategies, experience, and knowledge.
Stay focused, and become rich. Peace.
Buy LVLS - 29263 Risk calculator: 9/10
27510 R.C. - 8/10
24299 6,5/10
19490 PERFECT ENTRY IDENTIFIED
13150 VERY UNLIKELY TO BE HITTED
JPMorgan Falls Thru Trap-Door Equivalent to Pre-COVID HighsNot much of an explanation needed here... financials have been struggling, and JPM right along with them. What's notable here is that price has fallen below the pre-COVID highs, which means that all recapture, plus growth obtained prior to COVID, has all be vanished for stockholders of the mega-bank.
Written & Annotated for the CMT Association.
Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CEPA
President / Sr. Financial Advisor / Portfolio Manager
Libertas Wealth Management Group, Inc.
FACEBOOK PERFECT BUY ON ENTRY After a 40 percent drop, Facebook has a high propability that it will rise again and attack previous price levels.
The monthly valley is important to us, which we still hold at 224.76 and this is our first buy target at the moment. I expect a strong rebound from the monthly valley and a gradual accumulation phase of the 12345 cycle.
Buy ON: Risk 9/10 229.10
224.76
218.65
TARGETS: 250.32
287.98
303.55
Stoploss - DAILY close below 208.39
REMEMBER THAT THE REWARD FOR CATCHING A FALLING KNIFE IS ALWAYS AN ATTACK OF THE FIRST IMPORTANT VALLEY.
JPMorgan Chase | Fundamental AnalysisDespite the high valuation and declining stock price following the release of its Q4 and full-year 2021 earnings report, analysts still believe that JPMorgan Chase is the best-performing banking asset of its kind. After all, America's largest bank by asset size generated more than $125 billion in earnings on a managed basis in 2021. Still, the bank may struggle to deliver the returns investors have grown accustomed to in recent years because of some near-term adversity. And here's why.
One way to estimate JPMorgan's accomplishments on a quarterly and annual basis is the return on tangible total capital (ROTCE), which is a technical rate of return on equity after dismissing selected stock, charity, and intangible assets. It is definitely a strong number, taking into account the intricacy of the bank and the amount of regulatory capital it must have. In recent years, JPMorgan has mostly exceeded its target of 17%.
In 2019, before the pandemic and when the federal funds rate was higher, which is apt to help banks, JPMorgan Chase reported 19% ROTCE. The bank reported 14% ROTCE in 2020 and then 23% in 2021. However, both ROTCEs in 2020 and 2021 were significantly influenced by reserve capital. In 2020, JPMorgan had to set aside a ton of funds to prepare for potential loan losses, which significantly reduced profits. In 2021, realizing that these loan losses would not be realized, JPMorgan put the reserve capital back into earnings, which increased ROTCE significantly. When the reserve capital was drawn out in 2020 and 2021, JPMorgan's earnings were 19% and 18% ROTCE, respectively.
How did these numbers do so well with so little credit growth and low interest rates over the past two years? The bank's Corporate & Investment Banking (CIB) division had an outstanding year, first in capital markets and then in investment banking in 2021. But as earnings at CIB are expected to normalize this year and interest rates remain relatively low, all things considered, achieving the 17% goal becomes more challenging.
No doubt much of the sell-off after JPMorgan's Jan. 14 report was due to the bank's guidance, which was somewhat muddled and seemed to suggest less fortunate outcomes this year and possibly next.
One of the main metrics on which banks typically provide guidance is net interest income (NII), which is the money banks earn on loans and securities after covering the cost of funding those assets. When the Federal Reserve raises its benchmark overnight lending rate, the federal funds rate, banks tend to earn more NII because the yield on their assets, such as loans and securities, is revalued based on the federal funds rate higher than the rate on their liabilities, such as deposits. JPMorgan does expect NII to grow as a result of rising rates. In 2021, NII from loans and securities was about $44.5 billion. With expected rate increases this year, some growth in loans and securities placements, JPMorgan expects that to grow to about $50 billion in 2022.
But JPMorgan also gets NII from the bank's CIB Markets division, mostly from the bank's fixed-income capital markets business, doing things like holding bonds and some customer lending and financing. This was very high in 2020 and 2021 at $8.4 billion and $8.2 billion, respectively, but is now expected to normalize as rising rates also drive up the cost of funding fixed-income assets. In 2019, when the economy was more normal, the NII of CIB markets was only about $3.1 billion. Thus, while JPMorgan is expected to benefit significantly from rising rates, NII may be offset to some extent by lower NII in CIB markets, although this NII is harder to predict.
JPMorgan's spending forecast also took analysts by surprise. After spending just under $71 billion last year, management expects spending to reach about $77 billion this year, a slight increase. About $2.5 billion of that increase will go toward employee compensation and normalizing travel and entertainment expenses, and about $3.5 billion will go toward investments in the company, such as technology capabilities, expansion, and marketing.
As analysts noted, such spending growth is likely to make it difficult for JPMorgan to get positive operating leverage this year and possibly next, when revenue growth outpaces expense growth.
But CEO Jamie Dimon said reaching 17% ROTCE is not out of the question in 2023, depending on factors such as the performance of fixed-income capital markets and the deployment of excess cash, on which the bank has been conservative. Investors also seem somewhat disappointed that JPMorgan has significantly increased its investments in the company over the past few years, so they want those investments to be reflected in earnings.
JPMorgan stock has been priced pretty high, and it will face some difficulties in the coming years. At this point, there is probably potential for much higher returns in stocks like Citigroup and Wells Fargo, which are on a turnaround. But they also carry a lot of risks, while experts are confident that JPMorgan management is managing the company wisely and investing to handle all the competition in the banking sector now and in the future.
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Next Targets
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TP1 : 2.95$
TP2 : 4.45$
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Stay Safe!
Happy Tr4Ding !
JPM TRIGGERED FRESH BEAR SIGNALThere is a wolfe wave setup on the Daily time frame. The projected target is calculated by extending a linear line between pivot 1 and 4 and projecting the line. This is represented as the red perforated line, as shown in the chart. There are a few targets shown in the chart. Gap targets at 157 and 155. Bearish wolfe wave target is projected to be approx 143. We expect to reach this price target within 21 days.
JP Morgan Chase & Co. bearish scenario:We have technical figure Rising Wedge in US company JPMorgan Chase & Co . ( JPM ) at daily chart . JPMorgan is an American multinational investment bank and financial services holding company. The Rising Wedge has broken through the support line at 15/06/2021, if the price holds below this level we can have possible bearish price movement with forecast for the next 30 days towards 146.13 USD. Our stop loss order should be placed at 167.44 EUR if we decide to enter this position.
Things Looking Up for JPM this Summer?Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on June 11, 2021 with a closing price of 159.92 on the hourly chart.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 161.6855 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 2% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 3.7815% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 5.577% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 50 trading bars after the signal. A 0.4% rise must occur over the next 50 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 23.5 trading bars; half occur within 36.5 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 44.5 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
$JPM Before earningsJPM is looking at a retest of that 160 target I had a few days ago. As expected, algos took profits and it put in a bearish candle at the top. It seems like JPM has been trading inside a very range for a while, and if earnings posted are good, it should break higher, looking at 160 calls that should be paying nicely on this swing. All indicators show a bullish trend to the upside, especially the Stoch RSI. There is a slight bearish divergence on the Ichimoku indicator that is showing near term bearishness. I like this setup to retest the highs at or after ER.
$JPM Ready to test highs againAlgos have this pinned right at that conversion line and 8 Daily EMA. Flirting with overbought RSI, it has made a steady climb up to higher highs. I've set 160 as a psychological level to break, but the way it has been moving, it could move much higher. $XLF looks strong as well, indication higher highs for the entire financial sector. Targets should be short term, ready for a quick drawback if it fails to break out of these levels.
JPM short trade updated chartHere is the updated chart on JPM short trade I have posted on January, 12th. Brief pop above the resistance level to clear out any shorts. Turning around and dropping down below which proves to be a bull trap. From there, pretty steady down trend day after day. Today, hitting the first target. 10.5% down from the high. Next target is $117.20ish level and reaction is likely once it gets there. I expect a gap down tomorrow and hitting that second target pretty quick given the current market posture. Around $104.50 seems like a good support and that seems like a pretty good swing target and which will be around 26% from the high. How bullish the overall sentiment is, I can see very quick rush to the exit once it turns.
Have a good trade everyone,
T.
Potential short set up for JPMThis is a potential set up and not yet actionable unless you want to take an aggressive starting position. JPM has finally up to pre COVID price level. The run up recently has been too fast too sharp in my opinion. RSI is extreme over bought reading. Any marginal high will extend the PPO divergent high. Be careful trading this since the earning is coming up on this Friday before the bell. I can see rejection here or making a marginal new high and fade. That would be a bull trap and down move may be pretty swift. Down side target for me is the yellow trend line from COVID March low or the top of the gap at $112.55.