JPN225 LongThis trade is with the trend
There is no pattern
stop loss below the last structure
take profit at M15 overbought
Nikkei 225 JPN225 CFD
JP225 / NIKKEI 225 Index Bank Money Heist Plan on Bullish Side.Ola! Ola! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰
This is our master plan to Heist JP225 / NIKKEI 225 Index Bank based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low
Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 2h timeframe
Attention for Scalpers : If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰.
Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
NIKKEI 225 INDEX: Breaks Out! TP1 Done – Higher Targets AwaitNIKKEI 225 INDEX Analysis:
The Nikkei Index shows promising bullish momentum on the 15-minute timeframe, with the first target (TP1) successfully reached using the Risological Swing Trading Indicator. This long trade setup suggests a potential continuation towards higher targets as buying pressure remains strong.
Key Trade Details:
Entry Level: 38,384.25
Target Levels:
TP1: 38,544.16 (Achieved ✅)
TP2: 38,802.91
TP3: 39,061.66
TP4: 39,221.57
Stop Loss: 38,254.88
Market Insight:
The Nikkei’s breakout reflects positive sentiment in the Japanese equity market, likely influenced by global economic factors and investor optimism. This upward movement aligns with a strengthening technical trend, supporting the possibility of reaching the remaining targets if the bullish momentum sustains.
Summary:
With TP1 already hit, traders eye the remaining targets. A tight stop loss below the recent breakout level offers protection while allowing for gains as the trade progresses towards TP2 and beyond.
Nikkei continues to hold back the bears.NIK225 - 24h expiry
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
A Doji style candle has been posted from the base.
This is positive for sentiment and the uptrend has potential to return.
We look for a temporary move lower.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 38870, resulting in improved risk/reward.
We look to Buy at 38870 (stop at 38550)
Our profit targets will be 39670 and 39820
Resistance: 39660 / 42155 / 45325
Support: 37705 / 36330 / 34955
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
NKD: Japan Beyond Carry TradeCME: Nikkei 225 USD Futures ( CME:NKD1! )
Tokyo: The Ministry of Internal Affairs reported last Friday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Japan increased 2.5% in September year-on-year, down from 3.0% in August. The CPI excluding fresh food rose 2.4%, down from 2.8%, during the same period.
The core inflation measure, which excludes both fresh food and energy costs, rose slightly to 2.1% in September from 2.0% in August. Service prices, considered a crucial indicator by the Bank of Japan (BOJ), gained 1.3% year-on-year, slowing from 1.4% in August.
To counter the recent economic slowdown, the Japanese Government rolled out subsidies on electricity and gas prices. These fiscal measures were a major contributor to the cooling inflation, estimated to have shaved 0.55% off the annual inflation rate.
The BOJ is widely anticipated to maintain its interest rate at 0.25% during its upcoming policy meeting on October 31st.
Despite the dip in inflation, BOJ has signaled that further rate hikes may still be on the table if inflation continues to align with its projections. However, policymakers are cautious following criticism of their July rate hike, which triggered a market downturn.
As the US Federal Reserve will have its rate-setting FOMC meeting on November 7th, the all-important interest rate spread between the US and Japan could continue to narrow:
• With the Fed Funds at 4.75%-5.00% and the Japanese Interest Rate at 0.25%, the US-Japan interest rate spread is currently at 450 basis points (our calculation takes the lower bound from the US policy rate range)
• According to CME Group FedWatch Tool, as of October 20th, the futures market expects a 99.3% chance that the Fed will cut 25 basis points in November. If that happens and the BOJ maintains its current rate, the spread will narrow to 425 bps
• If the Fed pushes for a supersized 50bp cut again, same as they did in the last meeting, the interest rate spread could further shrink to 400 bps
• Over the course of the next 2-3 years, I expect the Fed to normalize interest rates to 3% or below, to a level not restrictive to economic activity. Meanwhile, the BOJ could maintain the 0.25% rate throughout this period. If that is the case, the US-Japan rate differential could further move towards the 200-250bp range, in my opinion
Carry Trade May be a thing of the Past
Two years ago, I published a market commentary, “Land of Rising Sun and Falling Yen” on November 7, 2022, and received TradingView Editors’ Picks.
In that writing, I discussed Carry Trade, a wildly popular FX strategy. In a nutshell, a trader would borrow Japanese Yen with ultra-low interest rate, exchange the fund into Australian Dollar or US Dollar and earn a higher return. At the end of the investment horizon, the trade would exchange the proceed back to Yen and pay back the loan. The differential between the investing interest rate and loan rate would be the return from this strategy. With 50x to 100x leverage common in FX trade, carry trade could be hugely profitable.
Carry trade carries two significant risks. The first is the appreciating yen. The trader may need more dollars to exchange back to yen and pay back the loan. The loss from exchange rate changes could eat up all the interest earning profit.
In the last writing, I commented that Yen at 150 may have bottomed out, and explored the idea to take cover for carry trade. Over the following two months, the Yen sharply rose 15% to 127. A trade that earned 3% in interest would have been wiped out completely and may incur huge losses if executed with high leverage.
In the present time, we are observing the second risk, a shrinking interest rate spread. Carry trades may have 400-bp interest spread in 2023 and could see the spread narrowing to 200 bps in the next two years.
With central banks around the world cutting interest rates, and volatility of exchange rates on the rise, this is probably not a good time for carry trade.
The Japanese Stock Market on Focus
While the currency play may be out, the Japanese stock market could offer both a good return and diversification for an investor’s portfolio.
The Nikkei 225 index is the main stock market index for Japan. At 39,290, its year-to-date return is 17.9% as of last Friday. It is lower than the 22.7% YTD return for S&P 500. However, Nikkei was initially up 27.6% in July. When the BOJ raised rates, the Japanese stock market entered a huge correction, wiping out all the gain. Since then, the Nikkei popped up about 17% in the past six weeks.
Japan is the world’s third largest economy with GDP of $4.2 trillion in 2023. Comparing to the other large nations, Japan is more intertwined with the rest of the world. We would explore two trading strategies based on Japan’s unique economic fundamentals.
The first aspect: Japan has an export-oriented economy. Its top 3 trading partners are
• China: exports were $153 billion in 2021, accounting for 21% of the total ($728 billion)
• United States: $137 billion, 19% of the total
• The European Union: $97 billion, a 13% share
These top 3 partners contribute to 53% of Japan’s exports of goods and services. In essence, economic growth in its trading partners will result in more demand for “Made-in-Japan”, while economic slowdown could spill over to Japan.
In my opinion, there is more tail wind than head wind on the way. The US is already in a rate-cutting cycle. Its economy has been resilient during the high-rate environment. The economic health would continue to improve with lower cost of capital.
I would also point out that Japan’s export data did not tell the whole story. Most Japanese cars are now made in the US. The data does not show up on Japan’s GDP, but is included in the profit of Toyota, Honda and Nissan. Many of the Japanese car makers are component companies in the Nikkei 225 index.
China is implementing massive economic stimulus. Hundreds of business-supportive new rules and trillions of yuan are putting in the economy. I expect China to revive in Q4 and in 2025, which would lead to higher demand for Japanese goods.
To summarize, I consider the Nikkei 225 has room to grow. A long position in CME Group’s Nikkei 225 Futures could be deployed to express this view.
The second aspect: Japan is a net importer of natural resources
• Japan, ranked fifth-highest consumer of oil in the world, relied on imports to meet 97% of its demand in 2022. Japan imports crude oil primarily from Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, and Russia. In 2022, Japan’s crude oil imports increased to 2.5 million barrels per day, up from 2.3 million b/d in 2021.
Not only does Japan depend on foreign oil, but it also sources crude oil from regions with heightened geopolitical tensions. If the conflicts in the Middle East escalate further, crude oil production and/or shipping routes could be interrupted.
The chart below shows an inverted relationship between Nikkei 225 and WTI crude oil price trends. This suggests that a spread trade could be constructed. For most of 2024, Nikkei moved up as crude oil trended down, except for the BOJ rate hike disrupting the trend. If geopolitical crisis escalated, oil prices could soar while the Nikkei would tank. For someone holding this view, a long position on WTI Crude Oil futures ( NYSE:CL ) and a short position on CME Nikkei futures ($NKD) could be deployed to express such a view.
Introducing CME Micro Nikkei USD Futures
On October 28th, CME Group will be launching a USD-denominated and Yen-denominated Micro Nikkei futures. The new contract has a notional value of $0.50 times the Nikkei index. At Friday closing price of 39,150, each contract would be worth $19,575.
The Micro contract is 1/10th the size of the standard Nikkei futures ($NKD). It will provide a new way to access broad-market Japanese index exposure with greater trading precision and lower capital commitment required.
The timing of the new contract launch is critical. It is a week before the US presidential election (November 5th) and ten days before the next FOMC meeting (November 7th). Let’s watch this space to explore the trading opportunities presented by the standard Nikkei futures and Micro Nikkei futures.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NIKKEI 225 Falls Hard! Short Trade Hits All TargetsThe Nikkei 225 has displayed strong bearish momentum after the short entry at 39921.50, with the price moving through multiple profit targets.
Key Levels
Entry: 39921.50 – The short position was initiated as the price broke below this level, confirming bearish pressure.
Stop-Loss (SL): 40104.00 – Positioned above recent resistance to safeguard against potential reversals.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 39695.93 – The first target was reached, confirming the initial strength of the downtrend.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 39330.93 – Further selling pressure led to this level being hit.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 38965.93 – The downward trend continued, achieving this target.
Take Profit 4 (TP4): 38740.36 – The ultimate target, indicating a significant bearish move.
Trend Analysis
The price is firmly below the Risological Dotted trendline, affirming the strength of the bearish trend. The continuous downward movement highlights strong selling momentum, suggesting that bears remain in control.
The short trade on the Nikkei 225 has progressed well, with all targets reached. The final target at 38740.36 underscores a strong decline, supported by the Risological Dotted trendline and consistent selling pressure.
JP225 / NIKKEI 225 Cash Index Market Money Heist PlanHola! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰
This is our master plan to Heist JP225 / NIKKEI 225 Cash Index Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low
Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 2h timeframe
Attention for Scalpers : If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰.
Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
NIKKEI 2nd phase of rally starting.NIKKEI (NI225) couldn't have given us a more reliable bullish continuation signal that our last call (August 14, see chart below), as it hit exactly our 39000 Target and then pulled-back:
The rejection took place on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, similar to the, above 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) rejection on October 13 2023, which is the Megaphone fractal we used last time to come up with the buy signal.
So far, the new correction almost reached the 0.5 Fib, so it is good enough for a buy, considering also the fact that the 1D RSI hit again the Symmetrical Pivot Zone, which is where the late October 2023 decline bottomed and started a new rally to the Megaphone's top.
As a result, we turn bullish again today, targeting 42450 (the July 11 High).
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JPN225 Drops Back to Correction TerritoryThe benchmark Japanese index experienced a steep decline after the central bank stepped up is tightening efforts at the start of the month, but was able to cover the losses as investors calmed down.
However, the BoJ is likely to raise rates again and along with the Yen’s rebound, JPN225 could face sustained headwinds. The index loses ground this week and falls back to contraction territory, as Nvidia’s slump amidst broader tech fears, spills over to Japan. Key Japanese chip manufacturing equipment companies and major Nikkei constituents like Tokyo Electron and Advantest suffered heavy losses. JPN225 is now exposed to the 38.2% Fibonacci of its recent rebound, which bring back the risk of a near market.
On the other hand the RSI points to oversold conditions, while the stock market’s strength goes beyond monetary policy and weak Yen. Above the 38.2% Fibonacci, JPN225 can push for higher highs (39,204), although sustained advance has a higher degree of difficulty under current conditions.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”) (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
JPN225 to continue in the upward move?NIK225 - 24h expiry
The sequence for trading is higher highs and lows.
Our short term bias remains positive. The primary trend remains bullish.
Intraday dips continue to attract buyers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end.
We look to buy dips.
20 4hour EMA is at 38645.
We look to Buy at 38650 (stop at 38370)
Our profit targets will be 39350 and 39480
Resistance: 38880 / 39000 / 39171
Support: 38750 / 38463 / 38250
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Nikkei to find buyers at market price?NIK225 - 24h expiry
Our short term bias remains positive.
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
20 4hour EMA is at 38333.
We look to Buy at 38340 (stop at 38030)
Our profit targets will be 39010 and 39190
Resistance: 38817 / 39000 / 39200
Support: 38500 / 38300 / 38000
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
JPY, key to all other indexesJPY vs USD, key to the other index developments. As long as it holds its trendline, JPY will remain week vs the other global currencies, Japan exports will hold, carry trade arbitrages won't unwind, US bonds will not sell off (rising yields), volatility will remain contained.
But if it breaks and doesn't hold the 139JPY/$, we could witness how algos start dumping US and Euro shares and bonds. Rising JPY should also affect the Nikkei 225, retaking the path to 30k
JPN225 SHORTdaily lower high
daily 618 retracement
4hr shift of structure
4hr trendline break
4hr retest 50 ema
Japan Nikkei index- just a quick post to show u something.
- As always everything is in the graphic.
- Now look at Japan Index closely.
- So a quick crash happened but look where Nikkei Bounced.
- i always speak in my posts that :
- " Supports are always turning to resistances ".
- " Resistances are always turning as supports ".
- Here you have a perfect exemple with Nikkei225.
- if u can trade Cryptos, u can trade anything else!
Happy Tr4Ding !
JPN225 Drops to Correction Levels Ahead of the BOJThe Japanese benchmark index is having another banner year, which culminated to July’s record peak. The central bank’s accommodative stance despite the policy pivot and the Yen’s protracted slump, were the key drivers. But even if slowly, the Bank of Japan is moving towards a less loose setting, after exiting negative rates regime in a historic decision in March. Policymakers have pointed to less bond buying ahead and there are mounting expectations that policymakers will hike again next week.
These prospects help the ailing Yen rebound (along with intervention speculation) and send the JPN225 to correction territory, with a more than 10% slide for the all-time highs. This threatens the pivotal 200Days EMA (blue line) and a breach would open the door to bigger losses towards and beyond 35,771.
However, there is ambivalence around the timing of the next rate increase, while officials have disappointed hawkish expectation in the past and have wrong-footed markets before. Furthermore, the Yen’s demise has made Japanese equities more appealing to foreign investors and ultra-loose monetary policies may have been key drivers of the rally in Japanese equities, but they are not the only culprits. Structural reforms, favorable policies by the government and strong corporate earnings are among the supportive factors.
Furthermore the drop is stretched from a technical perspective, as the RSI reached the most oversold in years. This can help JPN225 stage a comeback as it already defends the 200Days EMA. It may get the opportunity to reclaim the EMA200 (black line) at around the 40K mark. Successful effort would reinstate the bullish bias, but strong catalyst would be needed.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
The Nikkei snaps a 6-day losing steakNikkei futures found some stability on Monday around the May high, before going on to snap a 6-day losing streak. The daily RSI (2) was oversold to further suggest mean reversion could be due. And with Wall Street showing signs of stability ahead of tech earnings, we suspect a bounce could be due.
The 1-hour chart shows the 14-period RSI spent some time in oversold before a 2-bar bullish reversal triggered a rebound at a key support zone. Bulls could seek dips within Monday's range on the assumption of a break above 40,000, with a minimum upside target of 40,500 in mind.
If sentiment improves from here, perhaps a move to 41k could be on the cards near the June VPOC and gap resistance.
Strong JPY, Weak Nikkei. Trading Plans Post FallAs the JPY has gained value, on propping up rumours via Japan Authorities, we have seen a drop in the Nikkei.
The pro growth rates set by the BOJ have allowed the Japanese Nikkei to grow to higher highs continually, inline with the positive market sentiment spurred on by a better global economic outlook and a soft landing.
A retracement, however, would reflect some of the economic woes induced by low rates. Anything that turns this around will likely take us back to highs.
Conversely, a continuation of current sentiment will bring us lower. Any longs, therefore, must be tiny, if any. Save them till later.
Nikkei Soars Looking Past Monetary NormalizationUltra-loose BoJ policy and the Yen’s demise have been key drivers of the JPN225 mammoth rally. The central bank exited its negative rates regime though and is shifting towards less easy policies, with at least one more hike reasonable within the year. This threatens to cut off a key source of strength for equities and JPN22 registered a brief pullback from the March record peak.
But monetary normalization has been slow so far and the stock market’s strength is based on more factors than just favorable monetary stance and weak currency. Strong earnings, structural reforms and investment-friendly government policies are among them. As a result, JPN225 has resumed its advance and runs its third straight profitable month, trying to set new all-time highs. On the other hand, the RSI reached overbought levels and a pullback here would be reasonable.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
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🏯 TOPIX FUTURES: JAPANESE BULL SAMURAI IS STILL ALIVELegendary investor Warren Buffett was on a trip to Tokyo, the capital of Japan, two months earlier in mid-April 2023, and the titans of the country's giant energy and commodity conglomerates were there to make their presentations.
As usual, over glasses of Coca-Cola NYSE:KO - one of Buffett's most famous investments, they walked into Warren Buffett's suite at the luxury Four Seasons hotel and individually told the 92-year-old American investor the same thing: Japanese trading houses are cheap and should accelerate their move beyond commodities.
The support of the Oracle of Omaha is an important vote of confidence in the big five Japanese trading houses - Mitsubishi Corporations TSE:8058 , Mitsui TSE:8031 , Sumitomo TSE:8053 , Itochu TSE:8001 and Marubeni TSE:8002
It's also a broad endorsement of Japan, that is considered to have outlived its heyday 30-35 years ago, as well as considered less relevant than Asian counterparts such as China and India.
But there's one big question: Is Buffett betting on phasing out fossil fuels, the trading house products themselves, or a combination of the two? Or something else, like impact of the weak yen!?
Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway NYSE:BRK.B reported in August 2020 that it had acquired about 5% of the shares of five trading houses, that sent their stocks up and raised their total investment value above $6 billion. When the Covid-19 pandemic dampened demand for goods, it pushed down the value of company stocks, four of which traded below book value.
“They were selling, I thought, at a ridiculous price,” - Buffett said to CNBC in March 2023.
Three years after the Covid-19 pandemic (that is now hardly remembered) Warren Buffett's bets on Japan have nearly tripled to over $17 billion.
But even this Growth does not stop Buffett. Staying in Tokyo this spring, Buffett confirmed intentions to buy more shares, and participate in more big deals.
In addition, Berkshire recently unveiled plans to issue its own yen-denominated bonds, which help hedge against the depreciation of the yen against the US dollar as well as depreciation of Japanese stocks in dollar terms.
The technical main chart is dedicated to futures on the TOPIX index TSE:TOPIX widely known, along with the Nikkei 225 index $TSE:NKY .
The TOPIX index is an important stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) in Japan, tracking all the local companies of the TSE Prime-market division.
Buffett's mission to Japan marked, as it easy to find in the technical picture of TOPIX ( TSE:TOPIX ) - a significant moment, as a result of the breakdown of the key long-term resistance, with the prospect of further more than doubling the index TSE:TOPIX and its market value.
Nikkei Remains in Consolidation after Mixed Inflation DataJPN225 has backed off its March record peak, as the central bank made a historic exit from negative rates, shifting away from the ultra-loose stance that has devalued the Yen and has boosted equities. The BoJ is set to go further down that road and start scaling back its bond buying, while at least one more rate cut this year looks reasonable as officials expect underlying inflation to increase gradually. These prospects could weigh further on the index and sent it back towards this year’s low (36,732), but the downside appear unfriendly with the 200Days EMA following (blue line).
Despite the pullback, JPN225 shows resiliency, as the Bank of Japan maintains an accommodative stance and the lack of clarity around its intentions to reduce the asset purchases cast doubts over the policy normalization process. Today’s mixed inflation data added to the uncertainty, as core CPI rose but less than expected and core-core dropped for ninth straight month.
Furthermore, the stock market’s strength goes beyond easy monetary policy. Structural reforms, strong corporate earnings and market friendly government trying to direct saving into investments provide long-term tailwinds. As such, JPNN225 can resume its advance and push for new all-time highs (41,227). The recent consolidation is likely to persist though, amidst competing drivers.
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
JPN225 1440 - ABCD Emerging : 2 hours agoABCD Fibonacci pattern identified at 6/19 07:00.
This pattern is still in the process of forming.
Possible bearish price movement towards target
levels ranging from 39,011.05 to 36,868.95
within the next 8 days.
Expiry Date/Time: 6/27 08:47
JPN225 240 - Channel Up Emerging : 2 hours agoChannel Up identified at 6/19 03:00. This pattern is
still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price
movement towards the resistance 39,519.47 within
the next 5 days.
Expiry Date/Time: 6/24 03:40
NIKKEI Rather long way until it bottoms but then +60% upside!NIKKEI (NI225) offers a very consistent long-term pattern when you look at it on the 1W time-frame. As you can see periodically, every roughly 3 years it peaks and then starts to correct through a Channel Down pattern towards the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
It was only fairly recently (in relative 1W terms) that the index sought and found support on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) in October 2023, which started the rally leading to the March 2024 peak. If it follows the corrective Channel Down pattern that has been in effect for the past 9 years (since June 2015), then we may be a long way until we find a bottom.
The process doesn't need to be an aggressive one, in fact the last Channel Down that started in February 2021 bottomed in a long but very steady manner in March 2022 and even had a long bottoming process that lasted until January 2023 before the recent massive rally was initiated.
The 1W RSI patterns among those fractals are similar, so far in fact it is similar to the mid 2023 one that, as we mentioned above, 'only' corrected to the 1W MA50. As a result, we are expecting the current pull-back to extend at least as low as (near) the 1W MA50. If it breaks, we will only buy after it makes contact with the 1W MA200.
The Target process has also been very consistent throughout those 9 years, with each rise from the bottom being roughly over +60%. As a result, from the level the index bottoms, our Target will be at +60%.
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