Nikkei 225 JPN225 CFD
Nikkei 225 Index (JPN225) Short Trade Explained
Short trade went active on Nikkei!
Reason:
the price reached a resistance line of a rising wedge pattern on daily
+ double top formation on 1H with a confirmed breakout of minor support.
I entered short based on retest (382 retracement of a small bull leg)
stop - 20585
t1 - 20050
t2 - 19770
risk: 1%
SONY CORP (6758) Two Scenarios!
hey guys,
sony is standing on a key structure resistance level!
depending on what is your bias on this stock you may either see an ascending triangle on 4H
or
a double top formation.
no matter what it is, we can trade the stock to both sides.
if the price breaks above resistance of the ascending formation,
for us, it will be a long signal and we buy expecting a continuation to higher scructure levels!
in contrast, 6600 is our minor support.
being broken to the downside, for us, it will be a trigger to short!
both scenarios are equally possible so be prepared!
good luck!
NIKKEI - NIK225 - Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 19425 (stop at 19500)
Posted mild net daily losses but all trading confined to the previous days range, an indecisive Inside Day. Posted a Double Top formation. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile. Further downside is expected, however, due to the strong support below we prefer to sell a break of 19425, which will confirm the bearish sentiment.
Our profit targets will be 19200 and 19050
Resistance: 19585 / 19750 / 20000
Support: 19425 / 19200 / 19050
Is a Bearish Movement coming on NIKKEI? By ThinkingAntsOkMain items we can see on the Daily Chart:
a) Currently, the price is on a corrective formation (circle)
b) We can see an exact formation like the current one on the past
c) Also, it is important to say that both are happening in the same zone
d) If we take the previous one as a model of what can happen with the current one, we can expect a bearish movement to come
e) The bearish Target we will be aiming for is 15.000
Short movement on Nikkei by ThinkingAntsOk Use this as a guide to develop your view.
Main items we can see on the 4HS chart:
a) The price made a huge bearish movement and now is making a correction
b) If we take a look into the past, we can see a similar situation (circles)
c) Currently the price is on the same resistance zona that in the past where the new bearish motive wave started
d) We think that a similar scenario may happen, with a target on 15000.00
NI225 (JPN225)Hi Traders !
This monthly chart analysis shows that the NI225 is on a downtrend. However, since March 2009, the trend kept on a bullish trail, starting from 7021, and reached its highest level since april 2000, e.i. 20946.
After a correction that lasted 10 months, it reached its peak of 24448 on Nov 2018.
The year of 2019 was strongly bullish. By the start of 2020, the price plunged due to Corona virus.
If the latter never occurred, I assume that we would have witnessed the opposite scenario. Now that things began to change, let's wait and see how strong the trend will break the top of the pitchfork.
Yen Appreciates for Third DayDespite a drop in the Nikkei 225, Japan’s stock index, the Japanese Yen has seen 3 straight days of gains now against the US Dollar. In contrast, the Nikkei dropped back below 18,000 points, a one week low.
Traditionally a very stable currency pair due to both currencies being strong safe havens, USD/JPY was steadily rising in the months leading up to March. However just like every other market, it was not safe from the extreme volatility brought on by the global coronavirus outbreak in March. After dropping all the way below 103, the Dollar eventually rebounded against the Yen to trade at ¥111 to the Dollar, influenced by the rise in strength of the greenback following a pullout from investors from assets back to liquid cash in order to minimise risk. It is currently trading at ¥107 against the greenback.
Investors are also looking towards the Yen once again as a safe haven, as it remains a strong currency in times of economic uncertainty, and this is certainly one of them.
However, the Yen’s current status may be short-lived, amid growing sentiment that Tokyo may soon come under lockdown due to the sharp increase in coronavirus cases in the city. This new rise comes shortly after the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games were announced to be postponed until Summer 2021, leading some to question whether or not the Japanese government had been suppressing figures in order to keep the Olympics going ahead.
The governor of Tokyo has urged citizens to avoid karaoke- the popular Japanese pastime- in order to maintain social distancing, despite warnings from senior health officials to put the city under lockdown before it is too late. Japan’s economy minister has warned that a lockdown of the country’s biggest cities would have disastrous effects on the Japanese economy. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has also stated that a state of emergency is not yet needed, but that Japan could enter a situation like Europe very soon.
The Dollar also weakened once again following White House officials projecting that around 100,000 to 240,000 more deaths would occur in the United States due to the coronavirus. US President Donald Trump also gave warnings that the coronavirus would continue to worsen, backtracking on his statements from the previous week that he had expected to see the States reopen by Easter. However, he is still resisting calls to issue a nationwide warning to tell Americans to stay home. The Trump Administration’s lack of action has led to State governors to take action of their own. California and New York are continuing to be under lockdown, and an increasing number of states are also extending or adding their own stay at home orders.
Nikkei 225 the First to Recover, Gold Facing Historical Shortage The Nikkei 225, or Japanese Stock Index had an 8% gain for the day, following on from its 7% gain from the previous day. Less than a week ago the Nikkei had just hit lows not seen since 2017, falling below 20,000 points. However in just 2 days it has made back its losses and is now rapidly on the rebound back to the 20,000 mark.
As well as this, other Asian stocks are on the recovery as well, with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Korean KOSPI, and Shanghai Composite all on the upside.
In Europe, the UK FTSE 100 is following suit, with a 2.5% increase for the day.
Following on from this, it is reasonable to expect the US stock indices to produce a similar pattern in the upcoming days. US stocks have already started to recover, with the Dow Jones posting its best single day session since 1933, rising 11.4%.
This market optimism comes after the US Senate finally agreed on passing the $2 trillion coronavirus bill. The bill, which had been in dispute over the last 2 days due to being blocked by the Democrats, has now been settled with a deal being reached, although the final vote still needs to be made. Although details still need to be agreed upon as well, the gist of the bill is that $250 billion is to go towards directly paying individuals and families, $350 billion on small business loans, and $500 for other companies, amongst others. This is expected to be the largest ever economic stimulus package ever passed.
The 2020 Tokyo Olympics have also been officially postponed, after several weeks of discussions. While Japan was originally adamant about the Olympics going ahead despite the alarming growth of the coronavirus pandemic, today they were finally forced to postpone the games until 2021. Japan was initially extremely reluctant to make this move, as it would’ve been the first time in the 124 year history of the modern games that they had to be postponed. Olympic officials said that the games would be postponed to a date before Summer 2021, but no later than that, and that the flame would continue to stay in Japan for the time being.
In other news, gold is facing a historic short squeeze, as New York is currently under lockdown. The movement of gold has been severely impeded by the coronavirus, as metal refineries have been forced to close, and all travel has been severely restricted. Normally, in the case of such a shortage in New York, suppliers would ship from overseas locations. But the travel restrictions mean that there is the possibility that the supplies could become trapped, making banks and traders reluctant to do so. Even in other times of economic hardship such as war, gold refineries have not had to close.
The price of gold, which had been on the recovery as well this week, has now fallen again, down 1.8% back towards the $1,600 mark after looking like it would reach $1,650. This move could also be attributed to investors discarding the safe haven asset after the announcement of the $2 trillion stimulus package, as risk appetite improved.
Equity Markets showing Reversal on the 4 Hour?First off is the Nikkei 225. We had a break out earlier today which also confirmed a head and shoulders bottoming pattern. The lower high and lower lows began to exhaust. We are now awaiting for our first higher low swing here to confirm this uptrend.
Second is the German Dax. We had our breakout, and are now approaching the major 10,000 level. From here, would like to see 10,000 tested before a pullback and then a breakout creating a head and shoulders pattern and giving us a higher low to confirm an uptrend.
The Russell 2000 is close to the Dax set up. We are watching for this breakout. Similar to the Dax in a way that we would like to see a move higher before a pullback and then a head and shoulders confirmation breakout. The Russell may also be a leading indicator on what we will see with the larger US equities.
Japanese Stock Index "Nikkei 225" Can Lose 30% in the CorrectionNikkei 225 (JP225), commonly known as Nikkei, is a stock index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the world’s third-largest stock exchange with a market capitalization of US$5.6 trillion.
As the leading index of Japanese stocks, Nikkei 225 (JP225) is a price-weighted stock index, equivalent to the American Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, comprising Japan’s most powerful 225 blue-chip companies on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
Let’s take a look at Nikkei's structure via the Elliott Wave principle.
The monthly chart above reveals that the 2009-2018 rally had formed a textbook five-wave impulse pattern. It is labeled 1-2-3-4-5 where the five sub-waves of wave 3 is visible.
Unfolding Correction Makes Nikkei 225 Bulls Vulnerable
The Elliott Wave theory states that a three-wave correction in the opposite direction follows every impulse. And indeed, the decline from 24595 to 18951 in 2018 can be seen as a simple a-b-c zigzag in wave A. The Nikkei 225 spent the entire 2019 trying to recover from that low and top at 24412 in December 2019 as a three-wave zigzag in B.
This three-wave down and three-wave up pattern make JP225 vulnerable to further decline as it only a part of larger A-B-C flat or W-X-Y double zigzag Elliot Wave correction.
Bearish targets near the support area of wave 4 or lower are plausible. If this assumption is correct, we can expect another selloff in wave C to approximately 15000 from the current level. That's a ~33% drop, I think now is not the time for bravery when it comes to the Nikkei 225 or investing in Japan's stock blue chip. Observing from a safe distance makes more sense.
Do you think a 30% decline is plausible on Nikkei?