Nikkei Potential Head and Shoulders?The Nikkei is showing a potential head and shoulders pattern on the 2 hour chart. If we do break below the support at 21620,
then we would await for a lower high which would be a retest of the break.
However, ideally, would like to see a bounce and then a lower high which would make the head and shoulders pattern.
Price is turning at a resistance zone (21800) zone which adds further confluence.
This is a trade that can possibly play out next week. Keep it on your radar!
Nikkei 225 JPN225 CFD
Nikkei 225 22052019Long term view of Nikkei 225. Time for a big correction ? Lets see
Share your thoughts and observation in comments session :)
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Nikkei Wave count and speculative buy zoneThat's all it is at this stage. I am not looking to buy the Nikkei index, but a number of interesting individual stocks mirror this wider theme. Sort of a lower swing high being set and "one more drop" to set a higher low then off we go sort of thing. Let's see.
Short to short-mid bearish, medium term to long term bullish.
"Top and Bottom Analysis" NIKKEI 225 by ThinkingAntsOk4H CHART EXPLANATION:
Main Items we Observe on the Chart:
-Price has broken the ascending trendline
-Currently, price is on a support zone
-We will wait for a corrective structure on the support zone before taking any trade
Based on this if the price breaks down with a close candlestick below 20718.0 we expect a continuation of the downward movement towards 19964.0
MULTI TIMEFRAME VISION:
-Weekly :
-Daily:
Elliott Wave View: Impulsive Decline in NikkeiOur Elliott Wave view on Nikkei suggests the rally to May 4, 2019 high (22505) ended wave w. This ended cycle from December 26, 2018 low and the Index is in the process of at least doing a larger 3 waves pullback. Short Term, decline in Nikkei from May 4, 2019 high is unfolding as an Elliott Wave impulse structure. Down from 22505, wave 1 ended at 21935 and wave 2 ended at 22245. Wave 3 ended at 21080 low.
Expect wave 4 bounce to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as wave 2 pivot at 22245 stays intact. Possible target for wave 4 is 23.6 – 38.2 retracement of wave 3 at 21539 – 21672. Alternatively, Index can end the entire 5 waves from May 4, 2019 high already. In this case, it should do a larger 3 waves bounce to correct the cycle from May 4 high before the decline resumes. We don’t like buying the Index and expect further downside in the Index to complete a 5 waves down.
SHORT NIKKEI approaching resistance, potential drop!Apr 30
NIKKEI is approaching our first resistance at 22346.7 (100% Fibonacci extension , 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ) where a strong drop to our major support at 21472.4 (horizontal overlap support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , 100% Fibonacci extension ).
Stochastic is also approaching resistance and seeing a bearish divergence where we might see a corresponding drop in price.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
"Top and Bottom Analysis" NIKKEI (NI225) by ThinkingAnts4H CHART EXPLANATION:
Main items we see on the chart are:
- Price facing a Resistance zone on a possible Double Top Pattern
- Bearish Divergence on MACD
Based on this, if price breaks out the Ascending Trend line below 21300.0, we will be looking for short positions towards the Ascending Wedge Pattern at 20000.0, paying attention to the middle support zones at 20900.0 and 20400.0
MULTI TIMEFRAME VISION:
-Weekly
-Daily
Elliott Wave View: Nikkei Still Missing Wave 5Short Term Elliott Wave view on Nikkei Futures suggests the pullback to 20704 ended wave (2). The Index then resumed higher in wave (3) which ended at 21985. The internal of wave (3) subdivided as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 20704, wave 1 ended at 21415, wave 2 ended at 20985, wave 3 ended at 21765, wave 4 ended at 21490, and wave 5 of (3) ended at 21985. We can also see the internal of wave 1, 3, and 5 all subdivide as an impulse (5 waves) of lesser degree. This is an illustration of fractal within Elliott Wave where each wave consists of smaller waves and the pattern repeats indefinitely.
Wave (4) dips appears complete after a 3 waves pullback ended at 21588+ blue box area. The internal of wave (4) unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where wave A ended at 21735, wave B ended at 21835, and wave C ended at 21565. At this stage, Nikkei still needs to break above wave (3) at 21985 to avoid a double correction in wave (4). While dips continue to stay above wave (2) low at 20704, expect Index to extend higher in wave (5). If bounce from the blue box fails to break above (3) high and it breaks the recent low, then structure of wave (4) should become a double three Elliott Wave structure and would be labelled as WXY. We would be able to define the next blue box area for a bounce if the bounce does fail and breaks the recent low.
Elliott Wave View: Nikkei Rally Likely Fails for DownsideElliott Wave view is calling an end to Nikkei’s rally from December 26, 2018 low with wave X at 21884. The Index should resume the move lower and should eventually break below wave December 26, 2018 low. Or at minimum, the Index should do a larger 3 waves pullback to correct the cycle from 19055 low. Down from wave X at 21884, the decline is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where wave ((a)) ended at 20680. Internal of wave ((a)) subdivides as a 5 waves impulse.
Wave ((b)) bounce is currently in progress as a Flat Elliott Wave structure. Up from 20680, wave (a) ended at 21520 and wave (b) ended at 20705. Internal of wave (a) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from 21520 low, wave w ended at 21410, wave x ended at 21015, and wave y of (a) ended at 21520. Internal of wave (b) ended as a zigzag at 20705. Wave a of (b) ended at 21160, wave b of (b) ended at 21505, and wave c of (b) ended at 20705. Wave (c) of ((b)) is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. The rally should fail below March 4 high at 21884 for further downside. We don’t like buying the Index and expect rally to fail for further downside as far as pivot at 21884 high stays intact.
Not a Fan of that Resistance or PerformanceWhile there is much room to go before we hit resistance, I am really not a huge fan of this overall lackluster performance. Keep in mind, the BoJ owns upwards of 80 percent of the entire Japanese ETF market. 80 percent. Let that sink in. Also, export data is weak in an economy where exports make up 18 percent of GDP. If we gain five percent from today, nobody will be happier than me as my overall macro view will gladly change. I can sleep at night being wrong on five percent. But really though what could possibly lead to that given the last three months where some Asian markets like the Shanghai Composite would gain 5 percent in a single day while Japan is asleep? Just not convinced. More fundy and technical analysis on Asian markets as they move today here: anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
A bit unsure stillNikkei 225 is a bit tricky. Good fundamental data out of Japan such as dovish monetary policy, but weak export figures which is why its down today. Technically, we are well above most exponential moving averages, but stochastic reads overbought while momentum suggests we are still headed in an uptrend. Overall, not enough signals for one way or the other.
Nikkei 225 - Bullish Market With New OpportunitiesThe daily timeframe - the price broke a downtrend line and moved above SMA100. It confirms a trend reversal and new bullish market conditions.
The 4H chart gives a stable uptrend where the price reached a key zone where we can get possible trading opportunities. The resistance level at 21500 can be used with a breakout signal for buying. The entry level will be far from the better buying levels at the uptrend line. Probably it will be a good option to wait for a retracement to the uptrend line. Buy trades opened at the uptrend line will have less stop size and more space for upward movement. If you like a good risk-reward ratio, you should wait for reversals from the uptrend line and open buy trades based on them.
The breakout above 21500 resistance will be able to confirm the strength of bulls and further upward movement. The market will be able to reach the resistance zone between 21850 and 22000 levels. This zone should be used for fixing profit from buy trades.
Signals from indicators:
- MACD supports the further upward movement
- DMI is bullish, but ADX line falls below 20 signal level. It tells us about range market conditions. What does it mean?
Probably we will get a false breakout above 21500 resistance and the market will move sideways to the uptrend line. Buying from the uptrend line based on a reversal signal will be more logical in such market conditions. For confirmation of the breakout, it will be better to get the proof of bulls' strength from DMI indicator. For this, ADX line will have to start an upward movement, and for the perfect model, it should move above 20-25 levels.
Nikkei Stock Index (We are now at strong resistant)View On Nikkei Stock Index(5 Mar 2019)
It has been going up recently and now we are at a strong resistant level of 21,765 regions.
That region may cause the market to pause and may even pull back down first.
If you want to long, I suggest you should rather wait at lower and strong support level such as 21,000 or even 21,200.
If there is any changes, I will update again.
DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too.
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