Nikkei Remains in Consolidation after Mixed Inflation DataJPN225 has backed off its March record peak, as the central bank made a historic exit from negative rates, shifting away from the ultra-loose stance that has devalued the Yen and has boosted equities. The BoJ is set to go further down that road and start scaling back its bond buying, while at least one more rate cut this year looks reasonable as officials expect underlying inflation to increase gradually. These prospects could weigh further on the index and sent it back towards this year’s low (36,732), but the downside appear unfriendly with the 200Days EMA following (blue line).
Despite the pullback, JPN225 shows resiliency, as the Bank of Japan maintains an accommodative stance and the lack of clarity around its intentions to reduce the asset purchases cast doubts over the policy normalization process. Today’s mixed inflation data added to the uncertainty, as core CPI rose but less than expected and core-core dropped for ninth straight month.
Furthermore, the stock market’s strength goes beyond easy monetary policy. Structural reforms, strong corporate earnings and market friendly government trying to direct saving into investments provide long-term tailwinds. As such, JPNN225 can resume its advance and push for new all-time highs (41,227). The recent consolidation is likely to persist though, amidst competing drivers.
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Nikkei 225 JPN225 CFD
NIKKEI Rather long way until it bottoms but then +60% upside!NIKKEI (NI225) offers a very consistent long-term pattern when you look at it on the 1W time-frame. As you can see periodically, every roughly 3 years it peaks and then starts to correct through a Channel Down pattern towards the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
It was only fairly recently (in relative 1W terms) that the index sought and found support on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) in October 2023, which started the rally leading to the March 2024 peak. If it follows the corrective Channel Down pattern that has been in effect for the past 9 years (since June 2015), then we may be a long way until we find a bottom.
The process doesn't need to be an aggressive one, in fact the last Channel Down that started in February 2021 bottomed in a long but very steady manner in March 2022 and even had a long bottoming process that lasted until January 2023 before the recent massive rally was initiated.
The 1W RSI patterns among those fractals are similar, so far in fact it is similar to the mid 2023 one that, as we mentioned above, 'only' corrected to the 1W MA50. As a result, we are expecting the current pull-back to extend at least as low as (near) the 1W MA50. If it breaks, we will only buy after it makes contact with the 1W MA200.
The Target process has also been very consistent throughout those 9 years, with each rise from the bottom being roughly over +60%. As a result, from the level the index bottoms, our Target will be at +60%.
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Nikkei, bias to look for short...BUTHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Bias to look for short on Nikkei, but let's see how, the price action seems choppy lately..
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
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The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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Nikkei to form a higher low?JP225YJPY - 24h expiry
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
Short term bias is mildly bullish.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
The hourly chart technicals suggests further upside before the downtrend returns.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 37830 level.
We look to Buy at 37830 (stop at 37530)
Our profit targets will be 38580 and 38680
Resistance: 38570 / 41135 / 42120
Support: 36990 / 35705 / 34425
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Nikkei index analysis. Swing trade signal!!!Hello everyone. i want share my idea about Nikkei index.
First i want introduce what is that index. Nikkei (Nikkei 225 stock average) is a price-weighted index which composed of Japan top 225 companies which traded on the Tokyo stock exchange.
This index was long time almost 2 years in bullish trend but Japan government decide to take care for yen and they are going to cut rates which will have effect at the index, i think hedge funds will take their profits soon and if it will not change trend we will get big correction which i think is perfect at the moment for catch it.
if i have fundamental reason for that i will try to short it from my marked point which is at 40174, here i have resistance and at resistance we see fair value gap, if we will use Fibonacci addition it shows perfect entry point exact at resistance and 4h fair value gap.
I am going to open here swing trade, my entry point will be 40174, stop loss at 40749 and take profit who knows? i will follow price action if i will be right. if trend will not change i am waiting only short signal from that index i think it will be correction an the correction need to be huge.
Always make your own research!!! manage your risk!!!
JP225 to continue in the downward move?NIK225 - 24h expiry
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
A higher correction is expected.
Our short term bias remains negative.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Weekly pivot is at 37771.
We look to Sell at 37805 (stop at 38125)
Our profit targets will be 37005 and 36805
Resistance: 38570 / 41135 / 42120
Support: 36990 / 35705 / 34425
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
NIKKEI-225 Analysis Indicates Possibility of CorrectionNIKKEI-225 Analysis Indicates Possibility of Correction from Historically High Levels
On March 21, the value of the Japanese stock index reached a historical maximum, exceeding the level of 41,100 points. This was facilitated by:
→ Weak yen supporting exporters. It increases the value of profits earned abroad for a large number of companies that sell their products abroad and then convert the profits into yen.
→ Demand for shares of Japanese companies paying dividends. For example, shares of air conditioner manufacturer Daikin Industries rose by 2.82%.
At the same time, the NIKKEI-225 chart signals indicate the likelihood of a correction, since:
→ The price is near the upper border of the ascending channel, from which resistance can be expected.
→ Based on the results of trading in the Asian session, a long upper shadow is forming on today’s candle – a sign of selling pressure (as shown by the arrow). It seems that the price of NIKKEI-225 is difficult to stay above the level of 41,000.
If the Japanese stock market follows a correction scenario, the price of NIKKEI-225 may be supported by:
→ the lower boundary of a steeper ascending channel (shown in purple), which runs in the area of the Fibonacci level = 50% of the A→B impulse;
→ psychological level of 40,000.
Bearish sentiment for NIKKEI-225 could be triggered by decisions from the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance, which are concerned about the weakness of the yen — the USD/JPY rate is today near a 34-year low.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NIKKEI Gradually turning bearish for the next 3 months.Nikkei (NI225) has given us one of the best long-term trades last year (May 26 2022, see chart below), as we gave a signal for the most optimal buy entry one could expect, on the 10 year (since October 2012) Higher Lows trend-line, and from 26000 it has now surpassed 40000:
The question is obvious: what do we do from here, especially after the remarkable bullish start to 2024? To answer that, we have to to go to the logarithmic scale on the 1W time-frame and observe the Channel Up since the June 2012 bottom.
The biggest fact is that the current bullish leg of the Channel (since the March 2022 Low), has already surpassed the roughly +63% magnitude of the previous two legs by +3%. This suggests that we are forming the current Higher High but the 1W RSI hasn't yet made a Higher High of its own, so the rally may be extended for a few weeks more.
What has been very consistent though during this 12-year Channel Up, is the tops as identified by the Sine Waves. The next Wave Top is on January 2025 and that would be the time to sell towards a 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) test again. Nikkei though has formed the previous Highs on Double Tops, so it is possible to make a 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) correction now and then rebound towards January 2025 for a Double Top peak.
As a result, we now turn bearish on Nikkei for the next 3 months, targeting 36000 and after the 1W MA50 holds, buy again for an end-of-year target at 40000, before the next correction/ Bear Cycle starts.
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NIKKE 225 Analysis - Continuous, Just as the Markets !This is a Thread, so Follow for Technical Analysis performed with TrapZone Pro & UMVD Indicators.
* Trend is Based on TrapZone Color
* Bar Colors give us Momentum Green from strong Up Moves. Red Bars point to strong Down Moves.
* Red UMVD = Selling Pressure & Green UMVD = Buying Pressure. Purple is for Divergence = Battle of Supply & Demand
>> USE PAGE DN to go DOWN To the LATEST Post <<
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2-24-2024
Strong Upside Momentum with wide GREEN TrapZone established now and GREEN UMVD continues. Class A Entry at the top of the TrapZone.
If Boj decided to up its rate, nikkei could see more down sideello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
simple as that as mentioned in title. :)
Do check out my stream video for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
-- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! --
*********************************************************************
Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
*********************************************************************
Nikkei 225 Index Price Sets 34-year HighThe price of the Nikkei 225 index is fixed above the level of 37,000 points. The last time this happened was after the index reached its all-time high in 1989.
The bullish behavior of the Japanese stock market has the following reasons:
→ Strong corporate reporting. In particular, SoftBank shares rose 11% due to increased sales of its subsidiary Arm, which develops chips for the development of artificial intelligence.
→ Dovish view of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy. Thus, Bank of Japan Vice Governor Shinichi Uchida said that the central bank will not aggressively tighten its monetary policy even if it ultimately decides to end negative interest rates.
The Nikkei 225 index chart shows that:
→ the price moves within a large-scale ascending channel (shown in blue), which covers the entire year 2023;
→ in 2024, the price rises within the channel shown in black;
→ the 34,000 level was broken with an acceleration in the rally on January 10 - evidence that the bulls held a landslide victory here — so the area above 34,000 could serve as an area of support;
→ the median line of the blue channel and the lower border of the black channel can also serve as support for the price of the Nikkei 225 index in the event of a correction.
And a correction is very likely, given that the RSI indicator indicates a bearish divergence (a sign of depleted demand forces) — perhaps investors are busy taking profits after the price of the Nikkei 225 index has risen by more than 12% since the beginning of 2024.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Nikkei to find buyers at market?NIK225 - 24h expiry
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
A Doji style candle has been posted from the base.
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
The primary trend remains bullish.
We look to buy dips.
We look to Buy at 35980 (stop at 35760)
Our profit targets will be 36530 and 36630
Resistance: 37020 / 37940 / 38415
Support: 35730 / 35045 / 34565
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Nikkei to continue in the upward move?NIK225 - 24h expiry
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
The primary trend remains bullish.
We look to buy dips.
Weekly pivot is at 35980.
We look to Buy at 35925 (stop at 35685)
Our profit targets will be 36525 and 36655
Resistance: 37020 / 37940 / 38415
Support: 35730 / 35045 / 34565
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Navigating Market Moves Amidst Geopolitical TensionsRecent geopolitical tensions triggered a 'flight to safety' impacting Asian equities. Japan's Nikkei fell by 0.6%, while Chinese equities, including the Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong's Hang Seng, experienced declines of 0.6% and nearly 2%, respectively.
Exercise caution regarding potential short squeezes, especially with markets at all-time highs.
Keep an eye on Japanese economic indicators influencing the yen.
Stay tuned for any announcements from Chinese authorities impacting market sentiment.
In times of geopolitical tension, a balanced approach is crucial. Watch equities and currencies, stay updated on economic indicators, and be prepared for short-term market fluctuations.
Nikkei 225 Sets 21st Century HighAs the chart shows, this morning the Nikkei 225 price exceeded 35,700, its highest level in decades.
The Nikkei 225 index reached its all-time high on December 30, 1989, at 38,957.44 points. This was against the backdrop of Japan's economic boom, which began in the 1980s and continued until the early 1990s.
Nikkei 225 growth is supported by lower inflation:
→ in Japan: the latest data showed an annual inflation rate of 2.8% — lower than a series of more than 10 previous values, all of which were above 3%. This reduces fears that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates and limit its current economic stimulus policies.
→ In the USA. Today, we remind you that at 16:30 GMT+3 inflation data in the USA will be published. It is also expected to show a slowdown in inflation. Therefore, market participants believe in a reduction in Fed rates, which can give impetus to the development of companies.
The NIKKEI chart shows that:
→ the price is in an upward trend (marked by a blue channel);
→ the price has overcome the correction period (marked by a red channel), which can be interpreted as a flag figure;
→ on December 7, the price tested the upper border of the flag (shown by the first arrow);
→ on January 4, the price formed a higher low (shown by the second arrow);
→ has overcome the median line of the channel (blue dotted line).
Indicators show overbought, the long upper shadow on the last candle indicates that the bears are activating, so a pullback should not come as a surprise. The median line could help the bulls consolidate their progress, and the 33,800 level should now be regarded as important support.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USD/JPY: Yen Strengthens Amid Policy ExpectationsThe Japanese Yen gains support from anticipated BoJ policy shifts, fostering a safer environment and limiting USD/JPY within lower USD demand. Investor focus on US economic data before FOMC minutes remains crucial.
Technically, breaching the 200-day SMA signals a USD/JPY downtrend. Daily chart indicators suggest potential further losses. Any upward movement could prompt selling near 142.00, leading to short-term profit-taking around 142.40 and targeting the 200-day SMA at 143.00.
Support lies at 141.00, guarding against declines toward recent lows near 140.25 and the psychological level of 140.00. A firm break below 141.00 may accelerate a decline towards 139.35, aiming for levels near 139.00, 138.75, and 138.00 (the July 28th low).
US30 LongsUS30 is breaking All-Time-Highs.
Trend is still Bullish.
Market opened with bullish momentum; waiting for retracement to enter long positions.
Aggressively enter new long positions once original position is in profit and has found support.
Avoid entering new positions if original position is negative.
Stop loss placed under bullish breakout.
SPX LongsMarket has been breaking All-Time-Highs.
Overall Market Trend is still bullish.
Same sized retracements (indicated by green trend-lines) have printed, along with a subsequent bullish breakout, confirm continuation of uptrend.
Invalidation at 4733.3 (stop loss placed)
No profit target (new highs cannot be accurately determined at this time).
Aggressively enter new positions once original position is in profit and has found support.
Avoid entering new positions if original position goes negative.
Look for similarities in US30, NAS100, FTSE, DAX & NIKKEI.
USD/JPY Approaches 141.30, Extending Two-Day Decline USD/JPY continues its downward trend for the second consecutive session, trading below the 141.30 level during the Asian hours on Thursday. Improved trade data from Japan in November has exerted pressure on the currency pair. However, less optimistic remarks from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda may weigh on the Japanese Yen.
From a technical standpoint, the spot price indicates potential recovery below the 142.00 level and appears to have broken the two-day decline. This suggests that breaking below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is crucial support for bearish traders. Furthermore, oscillators on the daily chart remain deeply in negative territory, indicating limited resistance for USD/JPY on the downside. Any subsequent upward movement may still be viewed as a selling opportunity and is likely to be capped around the 142.75 level (200-day SMA). This implies that further buying activity leading to a move beyond the 143.00 level could trigger short-covering actions, allowing the bullish camp to reclaim the 144.00 milestone.
On the flip side, weakness below the Asian session's lowest levels around the 141.90-141.85 region would reaffirm the short-term trend and make USD/JPY susceptible to retesting below the 141.00 level, or the multi-month lows touched last week. Subsequent declines could potentially pull the spot price towards the intermediate support at 140.45 on the way to the psychological level of 140.00.