NIKKEI JPN225 bearish divergence in H4 and H1 SHORTNIKKEI JPN225 bearish divergence in H4 and H1 SHORT
Nikkei 225 JPN225 CFD
About Bollinger BandsI would like to show you the perfect signal from a such indicator like Bollinger Band. This indicator is very interesting by contractions and expansions which follow each other. After contraction there will be expansion and good trade opportunity with good movement. This daily chart Nikkei 225 shows the same. Price closed out of Bollinger Bands, MACD and DMI confirmed the breakout. It was good signal for opening short trades in the direction of the main trend. Weekly chart also confirms that it's better to open short trades with targets about 15200-15000.
Japan in rough situationtwitter.com
In summary, Japanese economy is highly dependent on exports. Recently, Japanese yen has appreciated very strongly against dollar. I think that happened so quickly and unexpectedly that many of those Japanese firms and investors did not react fast and early enough.
This could implicate large losses in margin revenues and more selling of assets. This year NIKKEI has already fallen about 20% and I think that it will continue.
Why is that?
Simply, because of dollar is likely decline further. Market had huge expectations for long time about FED raising rates. Now they're beginning to realize that FED is not going to raise interest rates at least not so frequently as they expected.
I think we are going trough same kind of situation that we saw in 1971 due to "Nixon shock". At that time the President decided to break up Bretton Woods. As a result at that time, dollar plunged also. Devaluation of dollar protects US economy. It makes US exports less expensive and foreign goods and services more expensive. Hence, it helps to create demand to US goods and services and create more new jobs. And that is exactly what US needs.
By the way, in 1971 due to Nixon shock, USD lost 45% of its value against Japanese Yen .
Finally, it's easy to understand that Japan faces a tough situation. Will they do more quantitative easing to save their stock market or do more FX intervention? I think that doing only one or the other is not enough. Another question is that do they have resources to do the both at the same time or will the Japanese economy plunge again?
Edit: the fib is little bit f- up but anyway...
JPN225 - wait and see.Waiting for price reaction to further Japan stimulus measures, otherwise continued bearish outlook. Only above 17000 bullish continuation possible.
Nikkei: Short the topThe Nikkei is showing an interesting setup.
On one hand, there is a daily uptrend in place, but on the other hand, price is approaching the key area corresponding to the day when negative rates where announced by the Bank of Japan.
This daily candle was followed by a higher low, which is labeled on chart as a key level, and then a heavy decline.
As an interesting sidenote, this day's low and high match the extremes of the 'value area' in the volume profile, and the 50% level marks the monthly mode (regarding time spent at price) on chart for this whole range where price has been stuck since November 2015.
You could go long Nikkei (or some yen pairs, like for instance EURJPY), to ride this coming leg up in risk on, but the bigger trade might be the short side once this is done. Interestingly, the Dax is the worst performer as of late, and might be the best short candidate.
I'll update the chart with the short entry once we hit my target.
I added the tlt, gold and hyg charts on top, and the usdjpy, Dax and S&P500 charts as an overlay to the Nikkei so you can see the interplay between them.
The idea is to use the Nikkei and Yen as a barometer for the other instruments here, everything forms part of the same puzzle and we can crack the codes with some work on the patterns on chart, and knowledge of the fundamentals, news dates, and the price reaction associated to them.
Happy Easter,
Ivan Labrie.
JPN225 - Harmonic Pattern for NIKKEI. (Structures & forecast)I've heard y'all like harmonic patterns, so what about this three-drives-pattern?
Supports & Resistances on chart!
Happy trading!
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Trade record & statistics: miud.in
Nikkei emerging bulish BAT but..JPN225 is ahead of all the indexes I think, so Im looking for invalidation this bulish BAT and to add to my short position
$Nikkei / $JPN225 At Critical Level; Favors Decline | $JPY #BOJ TECHNICAL SYNOPSIS:
1 - Predictive/Forecasting Model defines 20780 as critical high/High-prob. reversal level
2 - Technical analysis would define 20961 as probable resistance level based on June 1997 and April 2000 structural level and last month's failure to break above same level.
3 - Current bar carves out a lower-low relative to last month's bar
Net Bias = BEARISH
BEARISH SCENARIO - 50% FIB:
Decline would likely seek Fibonacci handles at 38.6%, 50.0% or 61.8% significant retracement level. However, first retracement offers little to no past structural levels for reaction when compared to significant pivot range at the corresponding 50.0% Fib retracement level.
INVALIDATION:
Invalidation would occur if price broke above and closed above 20961. For now, market remains taut to the upside.
OVERALL:
Bears are gaining ground, defending a historical 20961 level. Market is taut to the upside, while technical profile is tilting towards bearish favors.
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
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Twitter:
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David Alcindor
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Nikkei 225 is doing (4)th wave correction.The initial move is 5 wave impulsive and hasn't finish yet. The index is going to reverse this week and go through a complex b wave correction. The final (4)th wave and (c) wave target is around 17500.
Nikkei225 _ Bat pattern completion.Bat pattern completion at pervious structure zone synchronized with RSI divergence.
Japan Following China Down...I have been watching this pair for the last few weeks. It is closely related to China, with all it's current problems, as many Chinese companies are represented on the Japanese Index (I'm led to believe). It's been uncannily bouncing off fib lines all the way down, both the Fib drawn on a larger scale, the rise from October to December, and also smaller partitions of these on the way down.
I would say we are very likely to see a drop down to the October low at 17000 but could well see a slight retrace to 17550 before hand and so this is where I will put my entry. My SL will be 17815 and target 17000 with a 1 to 2 R/R. Though we could se things going even further down, the next supports being in the 16600 region
The charts a little rough to look at, any tips on neatening it up would be much appreciated!!
JPN225 W (GARTLEY PATTERN OR CRAB PATTERN)SHORT ANY WAYJPN225 W (GARTLEY PATTERN OR CRAB PATTERN)SHORT ANY WAY
The Japanese Bat // IF=THEN ®FX:JPN225
Bearish BAT:
Point B:
38.2% to 50% XA
Point C:
38.2% to 88.6% AB
Point D:
88.6% XA
Targets:
TP1 38.2% AD
TP2 61.8% AD
Safe Trades;
Possible LONG positions on NIKKEIWe have two possible short positions on the FX:JPN225
1. If price touches the first blue area, check if there is divergence on either MACD or stoch. If step 1 is fulfilled, continue.
2. If step is 1 fulfilled, we want to see either a double bottom or w/m pattern forming on 4H or 1H. Will demonstrate those patterns when the time comes. If step 2 is fulfilled, continue.
3. TP/SL will be set when necessary price action takes place in those areas. We will always wait for pullback no matter what. No pullback, no trade. If step 3 is fulfilled, continue.
4. Short when PRICE makes higher high. If it doesn't and instead makes lower low, abort this potential SHORT and look for the next red area.
Purple horizontal line: BRN(big round numbers).
Bearish week on japan, maybe a correction?After the strong rally, I'd expect a little downside. Nothing big , tho, although I could be wrong.
Shorting at trend-line break with large stop.
Shorting at resistance with small stop.
Shorting at upper resistance with minimal stop.
1% | 0.8% | 0.5% Equity Risk (ER) on each entrance.
Interesting zone right now for Yen crosses this weekWatch this current zone. An over-and-under pattern and fib 261.8 lurks below and the Weekly pivot is the magnet above.
Either way PA choose it sets a the path for the Yen crosses this week.
WHY ARE PEOPLE SCARED? SPX500 AUS200 FRA40 GER30 UK100 JPN225I present you 6 stocks with the same pattern action.
SPX500 AUS200 FRA40 GER30 UK100 FX:JPN225
Contrary to popular belief, I don't see any preference of expecting stocks to crash. I just see scared investors because prices touched the support levels, so everyone is panicking about it.
This also happened last year on October, many people panicking that it was going to crash but it was just a correction. Bubbles don't end until proven exploded.
Why?
Because the major support level just bounced. Look at the symmetrical support and resistance lines, they haven't been broken in all stocks. They all bounced.
I am not saying it will go up or down. I am just trying to clarify that the trend still continues, although it can be an excellent opportunity to buy while this hasn't been broken. Just don't let your emotions kick in.
As always, keep it safe.
