Nikkei is fine, the handle either done or formingNikkei is headed to 100k+ in next 5/8 years,
long term consolidation below ATH, leading to aggressive expansion upwards.
Nikkei 225 JPN225 CFD
Nikkei to continue in the upward move?NIK225 - 24h expiry
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
The primary trend remains bullish.
We look to buy dips.
Weekly pivot is at 35980.
We look to Buy at 35925 (stop at 35685)
Our profit targets will be 36525 and 36655
Resistance: 37020 / 37940 / 38415
Support: 35730 / 35045 / 34565
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Navigating Market Moves Amidst Geopolitical TensionsRecent geopolitical tensions triggered a 'flight to safety' impacting Asian equities. Japan's Nikkei fell by 0.6%, while Chinese equities, including the Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong's Hang Seng, experienced declines of 0.6% and nearly 2%, respectively.
Exercise caution regarding potential short squeezes, especially with markets at all-time highs.
Keep an eye on Japanese economic indicators influencing the yen.
Stay tuned for any announcements from Chinese authorities impacting market sentiment.
In times of geopolitical tension, a balanced approach is crucial. Watch equities and currencies, stay updated on economic indicators, and be prepared for short-term market fluctuations.
Nikkei 225 Sets 21st Century HighAs the chart shows, this morning the Nikkei 225 price exceeded 35,700, its highest level in decades.
The Nikkei 225 index reached its all-time high on December 30, 1989, at 38,957.44 points. This was against the backdrop of Japan's economic boom, which began in the 1980s and continued until the early 1990s.
Nikkei 225 growth is supported by lower inflation:
→ in Japan: the latest data showed an annual inflation rate of 2.8% — lower than a series of more than 10 previous values, all of which were above 3%. This reduces fears that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates and limit its current economic stimulus policies.
→ In the USA. Today, we remind you that at 16:30 GMT+3 inflation data in the USA will be published. It is also expected to show a slowdown in inflation. Therefore, market participants believe in a reduction in Fed rates, which can give impetus to the development of companies.
The NIKKEI chart shows that:
→ the price is in an upward trend (marked by a blue channel);
→ the price has overcome the correction period (marked by a red channel), which can be interpreted as a flag figure;
→ on December 7, the price tested the upper border of the flag (shown by the first arrow);
→ on January 4, the price formed a higher low (shown by the second arrow);
→ has overcome the median line of the channel (blue dotted line).
Indicators show overbought, the long upper shadow on the last candle indicates that the bears are activating, so a pullback should not come as a surprise. The median line could help the bulls consolidate their progress, and the 33,800 level should now be regarded as important support.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USD/JPY: Yen Strengthens Amid Policy ExpectationsThe Japanese Yen gains support from anticipated BoJ policy shifts, fostering a safer environment and limiting USD/JPY within lower USD demand. Investor focus on US economic data before FOMC minutes remains crucial.
Technically, breaching the 200-day SMA signals a USD/JPY downtrend. Daily chart indicators suggest potential further losses. Any upward movement could prompt selling near 142.00, leading to short-term profit-taking around 142.40 and targeting the 200-day SMA at 143.00.
Support lies at 141.00, guarding against declines toward recent lows near 140.25 and the psychological level of 140.00. A firm break below 141.00 may accelerate a decline towards 139.35, aiming for levels near 139.00, 138.75, and 138.00 (the July 28th low).
US30 LongsUS30 is breaking All-Time-Highs.
Trend is still Bullish.
Market opened with bullish momentum; waiting for retracement to enter long positions.
Aggressively enter new long positions once original position is in profit and has found support.
Avoid entering new positions if original position is negative.
Stop loss placed under bullish breakout.
SPX LongsMarket has been breaking All-Time-Highs.
Overall Market Trend is still bullish.
Same sized retracements (indicated by green trend-lines) have printed, along with a subsequent bullish breakout, confirm continuation of uptrend.
Invalidation at 4733.3 (stop loss placed)
No profit target (new highs cannot be accurately determined at this time).
Aggressively enter new positions once original position is in profit and has found support.
Avoid entering new positions if original position goes negative.
Look for similarities in US30, NAS100, FTSE, DAX & NIKKEI.
USD/JPY Approaches 141.30, Extending Two-Day Decline USD/JPY continues its downward trend for the second consecutive session, trading below the 141.30 level during the Asian hours on Thursday. Improved trade data from Japan in November has exerted pressure on the currency pair. However, less optimistic remarks from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda may weigh on the Japanese Yen.
From a technical standpoint, the spot price indicates potential recovery below the 142.00 level and appears to have broken the two-day decline. This suggests that breaking below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is crucial support for bearish traders. Furthermore, oscillators on the daily chart remain deeply in negative territory, indicating limited resistance for USD/JPY on the downside. Any subsequent upward movement may still be viewed as a selling opportunity and is likely to be capped around the 142.75 level (200-day SMA). This implies that further buying activity leading to a move beyond the 143.00 level could trigger short-covering actions, allowing the bullish camp to reclaim the 144.00 milestone.
On the flip side, weakness below the Asian session's lowest levels around the 141.90-141.85 region would reaffirm the short-term trend and make USD/JPY susceptible to retesting below the 141.00 level, or the multi-month lows touched last week. Subsequent declines could potentially pull the spot price towards the intermediate support at 140.45 on the way to the psychological level of 140.00.
Japanese Yen Weakens on Soft Inflation, BoJ Policy UncertaintyThe Japanese Yen (JPY) faced a decline after softer domestic consumer inflation data, raising uncertainties about the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) potential policy tightening. BoJ's October meeting minutes revealed a consensus to maintain the accommodative policy, contributing to JPY weakness. The USD/JPY pair saw a modest recovery from weekly lows, supported by the USD's modest strength.
Japan's core CPI remains at 2% for the 20th consecutive month, and optimism about future wage growth suggests a potential shift in BoJ's stance. However, the market anticipates a more positive U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing in 2024, influenced by the U.S. Q3 GDP report. Investors are now watching the U.S. Core PCE Price Index for further guidance on USD/JPY short-term direction. Despite this, the fundamental outlook leans towards JPY strength, indicating a downside bias for the currency pair.
NIKKEI is starting a new rally.Last time we looked at Nikkei (NI225) for the long-term (May 26 2022), it gave us the most optimal buy entry we could expect (see chart below), as it bounced on the 10 year (since October 2012) Higher Lows trend-line, and from 26000 almost hit 34000:
The index has since seen a 4 month correction (from July to October) to the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which held and initiated a rebound. This rebound is technically the introduction to the new multi-month rally towards the top of the Channel Up. This is consistent with the pre COVID crash consolidation and before that with the first three quarters of 2017.
Both sequences completed rallies of approximately +63%, the first to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension and the second above the 2.0 Fib level. As a result if we take a modest approach to the upcoming rally, we expect to see at least 36700, which is the 2.0 Fib ext. and is our long-term target. A new +63% rise from the bottom though, gives as a 40300 price tag.
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Japanese Yen Retreats on Soft Inflation, USD StrengthensFrom a technical standpoint, spot prices indicate a potential rebound below the 142.00 level, seemingly breaking the two-day downtrend. This suggests that the overnight break back below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is crucial support for bearish traders. Furthermore, oscillators on the daily chart remain firmly in negative territory, indicating minimal resistance for the USD/JPY pair on the downside. Therefore, any subsequent upward move may still be considered a selling opportunity and remains capped near the 142.75 level (200-day SMA). This implies that further buying activity, leading to a move beyond the 143.00 mark, could trigger short-covering actions and allow the bullish camp to reclaim the round figure of 144.00 in the short term.
On the flip side, weakness below the intraday low around the 141.90-141.85 region would reaffirm the short-term trend, making the USD/JPY pair vulnerable to a retest of the sub-141.00 level or the multi-month lows touched last week. The subsequent decline could potentially drive spot prices towards intermediate support at 140.45 on the way to the psychological milestone of 140.00.
Nikkei 225 Trade Idea for 20thDec2023 Super BullishNIKKEI 225 trade idea for 20/12/2023.
Major catalyst BOJ is out of the way now, Nikkei shows super bullish continuation from the monster move today. Text book bull flag break out just after the close to 500 points move after BoJ press conference. Price consolidated after that and shows another bull flag in the after hours trading.
Plan for 20/12/2023
Entry: Ideally pull back at the open at bull flag base -33353 or at 33227 - yesterday's VWAP
Targets: 33632, 33681, 33808 and 34030
Support: 33227,33096
Happy trading, feedback welcome to improve my analysis. Thanks for reading
"USD/JPY: Japanese Yen Halts Decline, Eyes US CPI Data"The Japanese Yen regained positive momentum in the Asian trading session on Tuesday. USD/JPY partially eroded some of the strong recovery seen in the past two days. Investors are awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for fresh impetus ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.
From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY showed a certain degree of recovery last week at the crucial 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The subsequent move exceeded the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from the vicinity of 152.00, or the YTD high, supporting bullish sentiments. However, the sharp rise during the day halted near the 200-hour SMA, now closing around the 146.50 level. This area will now play a crucial pivot point, and clearing it would allow the price to test the 50% Fibonacci level, around 146.80, and reclaim the 147.00 milestone.
Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart are deep in positive territory, supporting the potential for some upward action at higher levels. This suggests that the resistance at the 100-hour SMA, around 145.85, may now act to defend the downside just ahead of the psychological level of 145.00. Further selling pressure could push USD/JPY back towards the intermediate support zone of 144.55-144.50 on the way to the 144.00 mark. A convincing break below this level would be considered a strong bearish catalyst, paving the way for deeper losses.
On the other hand, the Japanese Yen (JPY) extends its downward trend for the second consecutive day, pushing the USD/JPY pair towards the 146.00 level during the European trading session on Monday. A report on Friday suggested that comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda last week were misunderstood, and the central bank will maintain the status quo until positive wage inflation begins. This comes alongside weaker-than-expected GDP reports from Japan, indicating the domestic economy remains fragile and expectations of imminent rate hikes may be inflated.
Conversely, the US Dollar (USD) attracts some renewed buying interest after betting on an early Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing was scaled back, proving to be another supportive factor for the USD/JPY exchange rate. Friday's closely watched US employment figures showed a rapid growth pace in November, with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.7%. This indicates signs of underlying strength in the labor market and suggests that current market pricing for a rate cut in March 2024 may be premature.
The recent sharp upward move seen around the USD/JPY pair in the past hour may be attributed to some technical buying based on sustained strength beyond the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA). This suggests that concerns about a deeper global economic downturn and geopolitical risks may limit losses for the safe-haven JPY and restrict any further upside moves for the currency. Traders may also limit strong bets ahead of this week's significant event/data risks - US Consumer Price Index on Tuesday and the crucial FOMC policy decision on Wednesday."
USD/JPY Weakens on Fed Rate Cut Speculation and BoJ PivotThe Japanese Yen has surrendered recent gains against the US Dollar amidst speculation of a Fed rate cut in March and a shift in the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policies. Despite a day-end recovery, USD/JPY experiences one of its worst trading days in over a year, dropping below 142.00 and closing just above 144.00.
Despite the intraday recovery, USD/JPY had one of its worst trading days in over a year, slipping below 140.00 in November last year. Throughout Thursday's trading session, USD/JPY transitioned from a slight decrease to a drop below the 200-day Simple Moving Average, requiring significant progress for a recovery towards the 147.00 handle. The 50-day SMA is currently positioned higher than the price action on Thursday, pushing towards the 114.90 region.
Expectations of a Fed rate cut weigh on the US Dollar
There is growing speculation that the Federal Reserve has concluded its rate hikes and will commence a rate cut in March, putting pressure on the US Dollar. In contrast, the Bank of Japan is expected to move away from extremely loose monetary policy in the coming months. This, coupled with risk aversion sentiment, offsets the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese Yen.
USD/JPY witnessed a more than 4% decline on Thursday, quickly dropping below 142.00 before larger markets staged a modest recovery, pulling the Japanese Yen (JPY) back into a reasonable price range. USD/JPY closed Thursday down by around 2%, while the Yen entered Friday's market session in the green for the week.
The Yen saw a broader market recovery following unconventional comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, unexpectedly hinting at the eventual end of BoJ's negative interest rate policy, possibly in the early part of next year.
Nikkei Intraday trading IdeaJapan225-Nikkei had a superb bull run yesterday.
Due to US Indices choppy weak trendy today, it has followed and retraced nearly 50% of the move which is healthy.
Major GDP data 10 mins before open will determine the next move.
Expect a rug pull to yesterday's open-launch base to 32937-32905 or a wick down to 32837-Tuesday's VWAP to flush down the weak hands.
Overall its a bull market trend and any major drop is strong buy with targets at 33314,33400,3346733585.
Feedback is welcome. Thank you for reading.
"JPY Surges to Three-Month High Against USD"The Japanese Yen extended its robust upward momentum against the US Dollar on Friday and kicked off the new week with a positive sign, pulling the USD/JPY pair to a nearly three-week low around the 146.25-146.20 range during the Asian trading session. The US Dollar is attempting to recover from its lowest point in two and a half months at 146.65, supported by a slight rebound in US Treasury yields, which is exerting pressure on the Japanese Yen.
On Thursday, New York Fed President John Williams suggested that interest rates could reach their highest point, supporting this perspective. In this context, the analysis of Fed Chairman Powell's conference later today will be closely scrutinized to evaluate the central bank's next steps.
On the other hand, growing expectations that the Bank of Japan may move away from its extremely accommodative monetary policy by 2024 are providing some support for the JPY.
From a broader perspective, this currency pair maintains a downward trend from its mid-November high near 152.00, with a resistance level at 148.75 likely to limit the upward movement before the late November peak at 149.75. Support levels are identified at 147.77 and 146.65.
JPN225 Analysis and break of structureJPN225 has been moving to the upside and recently broke this resistance.
Now the resistance has turned into support, If it holds Jpn225 could move to the upside :)
JAPAN 225 Super Cycle wave B TOP the last hours 34980The chart posted is that of the japan 225 we are nearing the Completion of the 5 waves up This should be a worldwide TOP the fib relationships are Wave A times 2.618 to = Wave C for wave B or wave 5 of III best of trades WAVETIMER
"USD/JPY Holds Near Yearly Highs, Trading Around 151.70"The USD/JPY pair regains positive momentum, partially reversing significant losses from the previous day, returning to the 150.15 zone, the week's lowest level. Intraday buying activity intensified after Japan's GDP print fell below expectations, pushing the spot price to new daily highs. The USD/JPY exchange rate fluctuates around 151.70 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday.
The USD/JPY pair maintains its yearly high and has the potential to surpass these levels if the U.S. Dollar (USD) successfully halts recent losses. However, the greenback is facing hurdles from the volatile yields of U.S. Treasury bonds. At the time of writing, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond hovers around 4.63%.
WHY ARE STOCKS REALLY UP JAPAN IS THE ONLY REASON Well it is time to show all the true reason the markets are being moved Not by the Fed It has been always the BOJ the carry trade . This a chart of japan nik 225 and we are fast approaching the the 34980 target I think this is going to be a real issue 2.618
USD/JPY Recovers from Recent Losses, Hovers Around 150.50"USD/JPY rebounds from recent losses observed in the previous session following weaker-than-expected US inflation data. However, the pair trades slightly higher around 150.60 in Asian trading on Wednesday. The USD/JPY exchange rate fluctuates around 151.70 in Tuesday's Asian session. The pair holds near yearly highs and has the potential to surpass these levels if the US Dollar (USD) successfully mitigates recent losses. Nevertheless, the greenback faces challenges from volatile US bond yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering around 4.63% at the time of writing.
USD/JPY Extends Upside Momentum Beyond 151.00 Level The USD/JPY pair continues to trade positively for the sixth consecutive day during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The upward movement is supported by higher US Treasury bond yields and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The pair is currently hovering around the 151.70 mark, marking a 0.10% increase for the day.
USD/JPY has sustained its winning streak, trading above 151.40 in early European trading on Friday. Unexpectedly hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell had a significant impact, boosting US Treasury bond yields and strengthening the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). However, the Japanese government may consider interventions to limit the upward momentum of the USD/JPY pair in response to these developments.
Powell's statement at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) event on Thursday expressed concerns that the current policies may not be sufficient to curb inflation. This sentiment led to an increase in the US Dollar Index (DXY), fluctuating around 106.00, with the 10-year US Treasury bond yield at 4.62% at the time of writing.
Despite strong tightening policies from major central banks, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains its accommodative stance. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated on Thursday that the central bank would cautiously approach exiting extremely loose monetary policies to prevent significant bond market disruptions.
However, the Japanese Yen continues to face pressure as the plan to exit extremely loose policies may be delayed due to lower wage increases. Reasonable wage growth is considered a crucial factor for the Bank of Japan to contemplate an exit from prolonged loose monetary policies.
Market participants closely monitor Fed's Logan speech and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November, seeking signals to identify trading opportunities in the USD/JPY pair.What do you think about this pair?
Japanese Yen Nears 33-Year Low Amid Powell's Rate Hike SignalThe Japanese yen faced rapid depreciation today, approaching levels not seen in 33 years, following signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that interest rate hikes may continue amid concerns about persistent inflation. The yen traded at 151.44 against the US dollar, showing a slight 0.06% increase from the previous session.
On Thursday, Powell reiterated hawkish views on interest rates, challenging market expectations that had predicted rate cuts in 2024. His comments underscored doubts about achieving the Fed's 2% inflation target with the current policy framework, leading the market to reconsider the potential for rate cuts in mid-2024 from June to July.
This stance contributed to the yen's worst performance since August, with a monthly decline of 1.42%. The currency's notable slide over the past month hit a one-year low of 151.72 against the dollar on October 31 and is now approaching levels not seen since 151.96.
The sharp decline of the yen has drawn the attention of Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF), raising growing concerns about the need for intervention in the currency market to stabilize the yen and minimize potential impacts on the Japanese economy. The MOF closely monitors these developments as currency exchange rates hover near a crucial level that previously prompted official action.
