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Nikkei 225 JPN225 CFD

Nikkei Intraday trading IdeaJapan225-Nikkei had a superb bull run yesterday. Due to US Indices choppy weak trendy today, it has followed and retraced nearly 50% of the move which is healthy. Major GDP data 10 mins before open will determine the next move. Expect a rug pull to yesterday's open-launch base to 32937-32905 or a wick down to 32837-Tuesday's VWAP to flush down the weak hands. Overall its a bull market trend and any major drop is strong buy with targets at 33314,33400,3346733585. Feedback is welcome. Thank you for reading.
EIGHTCAP:JPN225Long
by trikkone
"JPY Surges to Three-Month High Against USD"The Japanese Yen extended its robust upward momentum against the US Dollar on Friday and kicked off the new week with a positive sign, pulling the USD/JPY pair to a nearly three-week low around the 146.25-146.20 range during the Asian trading session. The US Dollar is attempting to recover from its lowest point in two and a half months at 146.65, supported by a slight rebound in US Treasury yields, which is exerting pressure on the Japanese Yen. On Thursday, New York Fed President John Williams suggested that interest rates could reach their highest point, supporting this perspective. In this context, the analysis of Fed Chairman Powell's conference later today will be closely scrutinized to evaluate the central bank's next steps. On the other hand, growing expectations that the Bank of Japan may move away from its extremely accommodative monetary policy by 2024 are providing some support for the JPY. From a broader perspective, this currency pair maintains a downward trend from its mid-November high near 152.00, with a resistance level at 148.75 likely to limit the upward movement before the late November peak at 149.75. Support levels are identified at 147.77 and 146.65.
by Larissa-Trader
"USD/JPY Holds Near Yearly Highs, Trading Around 151.70"The USD/JPY pair regains positive momentum, partially reversing significant losses from the previous day, returning to the 150.15 zone, the week's lowest level. Intraday buying activity intensified after Japan's GDP print fell below expectations, pushing the spot price to new daily highs. The USD/JPY exchange rate fluctuates around 151.70 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The USD/JPY pair maintains its yearly high and has the potential to surpass these levels if the U.S. Dollar (USD) successfully halts recent losses. However, the greenback is facing hurdles from the volatile yields of U.S. Treasury bonds. At the time of writing, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond hovers around 4.63%.
by Larissa-Trader
1
USD/JPY Recovers from Recent Losses, Hovers Around 150.50"USD/JPY rebounds from recent losses observed in the previous session following weaker-than-expected US inflation data. However, the pair trades slightly higher around 150.60 in Asian trading on Wednesday. The USD/JPY exchange rate fluctuates around 151.70 in Tuesday's Asian session. The pair holds near yearly highs and has the potential to surpass these levels if the US Dollar (USD) successfully mitigates recent losses. Nevertheless, the greenback faces challenges from volatile US bond yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering around 4.63% at the time of writing.
by Gwen_Humuna
USD/JPY Extends Upside Momentum Beyond 151.00 Level The USD/JPY pair continues to trade positively for the sixth consecutive day during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The upward movement is supported by higher US Treasury bond yields and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The pair is currently hovering around the 151.70 mark, marking a 0.10% increase for the day. USD/JPY has sustained its winning streak, trading above 151.40 in early European trading on Friday. Unexpectedly hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell had a significant impact, boosting US Treasury bond yields and strengthening the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). However, the Japanese government may consider interventions to limit the upward momentum of the USD/JPY pair in response to these developments. Powell's statement at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) event on Thursday expressed concerns that the current policies may not be sufficient to curb inflation. This sentiment led to an increase in the US Dollar Index (DXY), fluctuating around 106.00, with the 10-year US Treasury bond yield at 4.62% at the time of writing. Despite strong tightening policies from major central banks, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains its accommodative stance. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated on Thursday that the central bank would cautiously approach exiting extremely loose monetary policies to prevent significant bond market disruptions. However, the Japanese Yen continues to face pressure as the plan to exit extremely loose policies may be delayed due to lower wage increases. Reasonable wage growth is considered a crucial factor for the Bank of Japan to contemplate an exit from prolonged loose monetary policies. Market participants closely monitor Fed's Logan speech and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November, seeking signals to identify trading opportunities in the USD/JPY pair.What do you think about this pair?
by Larissa-Trader
1
Japanese Yen Nears 33-Year Low Amid Powell's Rate Hike SignalThe Japanese yen faced rapid depreciation today, approaching levels not seen in 33 years, following signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that interest rate hikes may continue amid concerns about persistent inflation. The yen traded at 151.44 against the US dollar, showing a slight 0.06% increase from the previous session. On Thursday, Powell reiterated hawkish views on interest rates, challenging market expectations that had predicted rate cuts in 2024. His comments underscored doubts about achieving the Fed's 2% inflation target with the current policy framework, leading the market to reconsider the potential for rate cuts in mid-2024 from June to July. This stance contributed to the yen's worst performance since August, with a monthly decline of 1.42%. The currency's notable slide over the past month hit a one-year low of 151.72 against the dollar on October 31 and is now approaching levels not seen since 151.96. The sharp decline of the yen has drawn the attention of Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF), raising growing concerns about the need for intervention in the currency market to stabilize the yen and minimize potential impacts on the Japanese economy. The MOF closely monitors these developments as currency exchange rates hover near a crucial level that previously prompted official action.
by Larissa-Trader
6
Selling NIKKEI on a Double TopStock have been bullish for the past 10 days and many folks are expect the bull rally to continue. We follow the charts and this is what it says: 1) NIKKEI is overbought on H4 and have created a double top with divergence. 2) There is a big pattern to sell which is being retested. 3) A smaller shark pattern has appeared 4) We will sell with the stop loss above 32800. The target is a big drop which means stocks will need to go down at the end of this week or early next week.
BLACKBULL:JPN225Short
by JD_TeenTrader
Trading the BoJ meeting – it’s all about YCCTiming – 31 Oct (no set time – likely between 1 pm to 3 pm AEDT) The tide is turning in Japan and while BoJ policy change is glacial - especially when we consider the intense pace at which other G10 central banks have acted – we’re now hearing that Japanese pension funds are looking are re-weighting of domestic JGBs, with yields on long-end bonds more attractive than holding foreign bonds on a currency-hedged basis. These future re-weightings will involve huge amounts of capital and increase the perception of JPY inflows, and a lasting process of capital moving back to Japan. On the inflation front, we’ve seen Tokyo core CPI coming in line, or beating expectations, in all but 2 of the last 24 readings. With core CPI running at 3.8% and well above the bank's target of 2%, we’ll see some lumpy inflation upgrades tomorrow from the BoJ. So why not start to tighten policy? The simple reason is they haven’t prepped the market fully, and they want to garner real confidence from the Spring Shunto wage negotiations – we should start to hear the outcome of these negotiations in the weeks ahead. All eyes on changes to the YCC band While no one is expecting a move in interest rates away from NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy) – that is an early 2024 story - Where we could see some policy change through the widening of the YCC (Yield Curve Control) band. At present, the BoJ cap 10yr JGB (Japan govt bonds) yields at 100bp (or 1%). If we were to see a test of the 1% cap in the near-term the BoJ would buy unlimited amounts of JGBs to confine yields to 1%. Currently, we see the 10-year JGB at 89bp, with yields up 14bp since 16 October. So, sellers have pushed JGB yields towards the cap, with the more freely moving JP 10yr swap sitting above 1% at 1.10% - it’s, therefore, clear that some in the market has positioned for the BoJ to lift the cap to 1.50%, some may even be thinking it's removed altogether. The market’s base case is for no change While 34/45 economists expect no change, given the recent flow and positioning in the JGB market, if the YCC cap remains at 1% then we could see a spike higher in USDJPY and the JPY crosses – I would guess to the tune of 30-50 pips. I would be a buyer on that JPY weakness. This fits in with the reaction we’ve seen in prior BoJ meetings, where since Jan 2022 the JPY has weakened in all but 2 meetings. Could we see the cap lifted to 1.5%? If the BoJ lifts the cap to 1.5%, one suspects this action will be accompanied by supportive rhetoric that they will continue to intervene intraday and buy JGBs to smooth out any overly violent moves. This action would see a more pronounced downside move in USDJPY, perhaps 50-70 pips (at a guess), although the likely accompanying language should limit the reaction. As always, positioning will play a part – where we currently see leveraged funds short of JPY, while real money is modestly long, and retail aggressively long JPY and seeing greater downside risk in USDJPY. One does question why the BoJ doesn’t just get rid of the YCC cap altogether. A scenario which isn't entirely impossible, but would likely send shockwaves through global bond markets, and by extension FX markets too. One could argue that YCC lacks credibility anyhow, given the BoJ seems to move the cap every time the market tests the limit. It simply results in them having to buy greater quantities of outstanding debt and cornering the market. The trade? Over the coming week or so, I see further upside risk in the JPY - My preference for the BoJ meeting though is to stand aside, but place limit sell orders above the market into the meeting. If the BoJ leaves YCC unchanged then positioning should be unwound and I get a fill - I suspect the move will be short-lived and the flow should reverse. CHFJPY is looking like one of the weaker crosses at this point, so selling spikes in CHFJPY looks compelling – and should we get closer to MOF verbal intervention I am on the right side of that too.
Short
by Pepperstone
1
NIKKEI Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 26/10/2023In the higher time frame, the primary expectation is that wave (4) is not finished yet. The price action we are seeing after the WXY structure still looks corrective which makes us call for a triple three or WXYXZ structure. In the lower time frame, we have two equally valid scenarios. The way down as a wave Z could have been started. However, we favor the scenario where we first see upside to finish wave X, followed by the wave Z down.
OANDA:JP225USD
by AndyCuckoo
NIKKEI Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 25/10/2023In the higher time frame, the primary expectation is that wave (4) is not finished yet. The price action we are seeing after the WXY structure still looks corrective which makes us call for a triple three or WXYXZ structure. In the lower time frame, we have two equally valid scenarios. The way down as a wave Z could have been started. However, we favor the scenario where we first see upside to finish wave X, followed by the wave Z down.
OANDA:JP225USD
by AndyCuckoo
NIKKEI Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 24/10/2023In the higher time frame, the primary expectation is that wave (4) is not finished yet. The price action we are seeing after the WXY structure still looks corrective which makes us call for a triple three or WXYXZ structure. In the lower time frame, we have two equally valid scenarios. The way down as a wave Z could have been started. However, we favor the scenario where we first see upside to finish wave X, followed by the wave Z down.
OANDA:JP225USD
by AndyCuckoo