GBP/JPY -H1- Channel Breakout (14.07.2025)The GBP/JPY Pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 196.70
2nd Support – 195.53
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Jpy
GBP/JPY) Bearish Analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of GBP/JPY on the 3-hour timeframe, suggesting a potential short-term pullback within a larger ascending channel.
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Analysis Summary
Pair: GBP/JPY
Timeframe: 3H
Current Price: 198.883
Bias: Bearish move toward channel support
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Key Technical Insights
1. Ascending Channel Formation:
Price is moving within an upward-sloping channel.
Current structure suggests price is heading toward the lower trendline support.
2. Support Level & Target Zone:
The yellow zone around 196.355 is a major support area and target point, coinciding with both structural support and the bottom of the channel.
3. EMA (200 Close):
Price is still above the 200 EMA (197.067), so overall trend remains bullish — but current move is a correction.
4. RSI (14):
RSI is neutral near 51.14, allowing room for further downward movement before becoming oversold.
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Target Point
Target: 196.355 (support zone and bottom of channel)
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Trade Idea
Direction Entry Stop-Loss Target
Sell 198.80–199.00 Above 199.70 196.35
SMC trading point
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Summary
GBP/JPY is likely to retrace toward support at 196.35 before possibly bouncing within the larger bullish structure. This offers a short-term selling opportunity, with potential buy setups near the lower trendline later.
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Volatile Times for GBPJPY: What’s Going On Behind the Moves?Good morning, Guys,
I’m anticipating a new short opportunity on GBPJPY once the pair reaches my sell zone level. From there, my target is set at 197.934.
Every like from you is what truly motivates me to keep sharing these insights.
Massive thanks to everyone who shows love and support!
Heading into pullback resistance?The USD/JPY is rising towards the pivot, which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 148.44
1st Support: 143.24
1st Resistance: 151.23
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
$EJ (EURJPY) 1HEURJPY recently showed a strong bullish rally off a key 1H Order Block (OB) near 171.200. This rally swept sell-side liquidity before shifting short-term structure.
However, current price action shows signs of weakness — multiple rejection wicks near 172.350 and a potential shift in momentum.
The corrective structure forming suggests the bullish move may have been a liquidity run. A clean lower high may confirm bearish intent.
As long as price remains below the recent swing high, we anticipate a short-term retracement toward the OB zone (171.200), which aligns with an area of unfilled orders and possible rebalancing.
Why election risk means yen volatility could rise this weekThe Japanese yen remains vulnerable ahead of Japan’s Upper House election on July 20.
Polls suggest the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition may lose its Upper House majority. Such an outcome would further weaken Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s position, with his government already operating as a minority in the Lower House.
Adding to the pressure, the U.S. is set to impose 25% tariffs on Japanese goods from August 1—part of a broader protectionist push.
USD/JPY(20250714)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
① Fed's Goolsbee: The latest tariff threat may delay rate cuts. ② The Fed responded to the White House's "accusations": The increase in building renovation costs partly reflects unforeseen construction conditions. ③ "Fed's megaphone": The dispute over building renovations has challenged the Fed's independence again, and it is expected that no rate cuts will be made this month. ④ Hassett: Whether Trump fires Powell or not, the Fed's answer to the headquarters renovation is the key.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
147.02
Support and resistance levels:
148.39
147.88
147.55
146.49
146.15
145.64
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 147.55, consider buying, and the first target price is 147.88
If the price breaks through 147.02, consider selling, and the first target price is 146.49
AUDJPY LONG & SHORT – WEEKLY FORECAST Q3 | W29 | Y25💼 AUDJPY LONG & SHORT – WEEKLY FORECAST
Q3 | W29 | Y25
📊 MARKET STRUCTURE SNAPSHOT
AUD JPY is currently reaching for a key higher time frame supply zone, looking for price action to show weakness at premium levels. Structure and momentum are now aligning for a short opportunity backed by multi-timeframe confluence.
🔍 Confluences to Watch 📝
✅ Daily Order Block (OB)
Looking for Strong reaction and early signs of distribution.
✅ 4H Order Block
Break of internal structure (iBoS) confirms a short-term bearish transition.
✅ 1H Order Block
📈 Risk Management Protocols
🔑 Core principles:
Max 1% risk per trade
Only execute at pre-identified levels
Use alerts, not emotion
Stick to your RR plan — minimum 1:2
🧠 You’re not paid for how many trades you take, you’re paid for how well you manage risk.
🧠 Weekly FRGNT Insight
"Trade what the market gives, not what your ego wants."
Stay mechanical. Stay focused. Let the probabilities work.
🏁 Final Thoughts from FRGNT
📌 The structure is clear.
The confluences are stacked.
Let execution follow discipline, not emotion.
USDJPY 4Hour TF - July 13th, 2025USDJPY 7/13/2025
USDJPY 4Hour Neutral Idea
Monthly - Bullish
Weekly - Bearish
Daily - Bearish
4Hour - Bullish
Finally UJ is looking more clear. We’re now able to drop to the 4Hour instead of the Daily TF due to price action reaching a major zone of anticipated reactions.
As always we’re looking at two trade scenarios going into the week ahead:
Bullish Continuation - UJ is currently sitting at 147.500 resistance and closed there last week. Going into this week we could see the bullish trend continue but we would need to see a clear break of 147.500 resistance to gain confidence. Look for a higher low confirmed above 147.500 followed by strong bullish setups to enter long on. Look to target higher toward major resistance levels like 149.250 area.
Bearish Reversal: Despite the strong bullish momentum we saw from last week, a reversal is still possible as price action is near our 147.250 zone. In order to consider bearish setups we would need to see strong rejection from the current level of resistance. Look to target lower toward 145.000 support.
Could the price reverse from here?USD/JPY is rising towards the pivot which is a swing high resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which acts as an overlap support.
Pivot: 148.53
1st Support: 145.89
1st Resistance: 149.73
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
NZDJPY price action forming a top?NZDJPY - 24h expiry
Trading has been mixed and volatile.
Price action looks to be forming a top.
We look for a temporary move higher.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Bespoke resistance is located at 88.45.
We look to Sell at 88.45 (stop at 88.65)
Our profit targets will be 87.65 and 87.50
Resistance: 88.50 / 88.65 / 88.90
Support: 87.90 / 87.60 / 87.20
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
EURJPY 4hour TF - July 13th, 2025EURJPY 7/13/2025
EURJPY 4hour Bullish Idea
Monthly - Bullish
Weekly - Bullish
Daily - Bullish
4hour - Bullish
EJ has been paying out for the last couple weeks and the analysis has been spot on for these setups. Going into this week though we’re starting to get a bit uncertain. The fact that we’ve been in a rally since late June leaves me wondering how much more EJ has in it before a correction. So I think this week warrants some caution on EJ especially as we remain around this monthly 171.000 zone.
Let’s keep a look out for two potential scenarios going into this week:
Bullish Continuation - This is the most likely scenario and this idea lines up with all the major trends as well. For us to comfortably consider long setups I’d like to see a clear break above 172.400 zone / our 0% fib level followed by a retest for confirmation. This is what we would like to see but keep in mind price action has been moving aggressively and may not provide a retest.
Bearish Reversal into Range - This is a possibility but could also be a sign of consolidation around 171.000. There may be a decent short opportunity if we see the right kind of rejection/reversal from 172.400. In this scenario, it looks like this would be a potential range trade and I wouldn’t try to repeat this setup more than once.
AUDJPY 4Hour TF - July 13th, 2025AUDJPY 7/13/2025
AUDJPY 4hour Bullish Idea
Monthly - Bullish
Weekly - Bearish
Dailly - Bearish
4hour - Bullish
Looking good on AJ! Last week’s analysis played out perfectly and we can see going into this week we have a similar scenario.
Here are the two potential trade paths for the week ahead:
Bullish Continuation - This is the most likely scenario going into this week as we just broke our 96.500 resistance and are now testing it as support. If we can confirm a higher low with strong bullish conviction we can look to enter long and target higher toward major resistance levels.
Bearish Reversal - For us to consider AJ bearish we would first need to see a break back below 96.500. If we can spot a clear trend change and some lower highs below 96.500 we can begin looking short. Target lower toward major support levels if this happens.
EURJPY SHORT – WEEKLY FORECAST Q3 | W29 | Y25💼 EURJPY SHORT – WEEKLY FORECAST
Q3 | W29 | Y25
📊 MARKET STRUCTURE SNAPSHOT
EURJPY is currently reacting from a key higher time frame supply zone, with price action showing weakness at premium levels. Structure and momentum are now aligning for a short opportunity backed by multi-timeframe confluence.
🔍 Confluences to Watch 📝
✅ Daily Order Block (OB)
Strong reaction and early signs of distribution.
Previous bullish momentum is losing steam; structure is flattening with rejection wicks forming.
✅ 4H Order Block
Break of internal structure (iBoS) confirms a short-term bearish transition.
✅ 1H Order Block
1H structure shift bearish
📈 Risk Management Protocols
🔑 Core principles:
Max 1% risk per trade
Only execute at pre-identified levels
Use alerts, not emotion
Stick to your RR plan — minimum 1:2
🧠 You’re not paid for how many trades you take, you’re paid for how well you manage risk.
🧠 Weekly FRGNT Insight
"Trade what the market gives, not what your ego wants."
Stay mechanical. Stay focused. Let the probabilities work.
🏁 Final Thoughts from FRGNT
📌 The structure is clear.
The confluences are stacked.
Let execution follow discipline, not emotion.
EURJPY Hits Supply | Pullback Is ComingPrice has entered the daily supply zone (red area) between 170.80 and 171.80, showing immediate rejection with a long upper wick — a signal of potential short-term bearish reaction.
The RSI is turning lower, indicating loss of momentum, although it hasn’t reached extreme levels yet.
The current map suggests a technical pullback toward the 169.40–168.50 zone (FVG + dynamic support) before any potential bullish continuation toward 174+.
The overall structure remains bullish, but a correction looks likely due to technical exhaustion and retail positioning.
📊 2. COT Report (JPY Futures – as of 2025-07-01)
Non-Commercials (speculators) reduced long positions on the JPY by -7,779 contracts, and also slightly trimmed shorts → clear sign of position reduction.
Net positioning remains strongly negative (JPY weakness), but it's starting to recover slightly.
Commercials added both longs (+2,830) and shorts (+5,977), indicating indecision but growing interest.
Open interest slightly decreased (–516), though it remains elevated.
👉 The market has not yet reversed, but the JPY downtrend may be approaching exhaustion.
🧠 3. Retail Sentiment
86% of retail traders are short EUR/JPY — a strong contrarian bullish signal.
Average retail short entry: 166.27, while current price is 171.55 → retail traders are trapped and under pressure.
A short squeeze is likely underway or already completed, increasing the risk of a technical correction after distribution.
📅 4. Seasonality
July is historically weak for EUR/JPY:
20Y: -0.35
15Y: -0.49
10Y: -0.18
August tends to be even worse from a seasonal perspective.
This supports the idea of a potential pullback in the coming days or weeks.
Trading Conclusion
Current Bias: Short-term Neutral–Bearish, Medium-term Bullish.
✳️ Potential pullback from 172.30 toward 169.40–168.50
🎯 If price holds and builds clean bullish structure, expect continuation toward 174.00–175.00
❌ Invalidation on daily close below 167.80
USD/JPY - H1- Wedge Breakout (07.07.2025)The USD/JPY pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 148.00
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🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post !
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING
Thank you.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
EURJPY SHORT DAILY FORECAST Q3 D11 W28 Y25EURJPY SHORT DAILY FORECAST Q3 D11 W28 Y25
It’s Fun Coupon Friday! 💸🔥
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 👀
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Daily Order block identified
✅4H Order Block identified
✅1H Order Block identified
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
GBPJPY - Multi-Year Short Update! In our last setup for GBPJPY, we identified a massive diagonal pattern, with price completing wave 4 and preparing for a multi-year drop into wave 5.
Since then, price has played out exactly as forecasted — we've seen a clean impulse lower for wave 1, followed by an ABC correction for wave 2, which looks to have now completed.
This sets the stage for the next major leg — wave 3 of 5 — which historically carries the most power and momentum.
📉 See monthly chart here:
📊 GBP/JPY Wave‑3 Trade Idea
Background:
We’ve completed wave 1 down and wave 2 up (ABC correction).
GBPJPY is now positioned to start a powerful wave 3 down — the most impulsive leg in an Elliott sequence.
🔍 Current Price Action:
Price is rejecting major resistance (previous wave A high + shaded zone)
Structure shows a completed 5-wave move up within C, suggesting exhaustion.
A clean ascending trendline (red) has formed under wave v — a break here signals the first confirmation.
Option 1 – Aggressive Entry:
- Trigger: Break and close below the red trendline (~198.00–197.80 zone) on the daily.
- Entry: On candle close below trendline
- Stop Loss: Above recent high ~199.80 and then breakeven once we move lower
Option 2 – Conservative Entry (preferred):
- Trigger: Trendline break + correction
- Entry: On bearish confirmation and then a correction to indicate further downside
- Stop Loss: Above recent high ~199.80 and then breakeven once we move lower
Take Profit Levels:
- TP1: 192
- TP2: 180
- TP3: 175
- Final Target: Trail for extended move toward wave (3) lows (could be 10,000+ pips over long term)
🔐 Invalidation:
Daily close back above 200.00 or impulsive rally beyond the pink resistance zone invalidates the short bias in the short term.
✅ Summary:
This is a high-conviction, structure-backed setup with:
- Wave count + Fib confluence
- Bearish structure at key resistance
- Confirmation-based trigger (trendline break + retest)
- Excellent long-term risk-to-reward profile
📂 Previous GBPJPY Setups (Track Record):
📌 Free Setup (Big Picture Outlook) – Multi-Year Shorts Incoming (Wave 4 Completion)
✅ Swing 1 – 1,200 Pips (VIP GBPJPY Long)
✅ Swing 2 – 1,000 Pips (VIP GBPJPY Short)
✅ Swing 3 – 1,100 Pips (VIP GBPJPY Short)
✅ Swing 4 – 700 Pips (VIP GBPJPY Short)
USD/JPY Possible Bear Scenario🔍 Analysis Summary:
USDJPY has failed to close above 146.1 on the weekly for the past 13 candles, showing clear signs of price exhaustion at this level. Price has also tapped into a marked 8HR bearish order block and printed a Daily Pin Bar — a strong reversal signal indicating potential downside.
📍Key Technicals:
• Resistance Holding: 146.1–146.6 zone
• Bearish Rejection: Pin Bar off resistance + order block
• Risk Area (Stop Zone): Above 147.16
• Target Zones: 144.2 (interim) → 142.4 (swing level)
🛠 Confluence:
• Order block rejection
• Multi-week resistance
• Clean structure with defined R:R
• Bearish candlestick confirmation
📊 Timeframe: 8HR
📉 Bias: Short
🔐 Risk Management: Proper stop loss in place above structure. Use personal risk limits.
⸻
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This setup is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Always conduct your own analysis and use risk management based on your personal trading plan.
Bearish drop off pullback resistance?USD/JPY has rejected off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 146.50
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 147.17
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
Take profit: 145.21
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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NZDJPY Long Setup: Institutional Flow Signals Upside to 89.690🗓 Seasonal Outlook
- JPY Seasonal Weakness: Historical trends show July and August tend to be bearish months for the Japanese Yen, reinforcing weakness across JPY pairs.
- NZD Seasonal Strength: July typically supports bullish momentum for NZD, while August may present challenges. However, strength in NZD versus relative JPY softness suggests continued upside potential into early August.
💼 Institutional Positioning (COT Analysis)
- JPY: Commercial traders remain net short, suggesting expectations of further depreciation.
- NZD: Also shows commercial net shorts, yet the price structure aligns more with bullish continuation, hinting at speculative flow favoring NZD upside.
🧠 Technical Analysis
- Liquidity Dynamics:
- Price has cleared multiple buy-side liquidity levels near prior swing highs.
- Sell-side zones continue to hold, indicating strong bullish intent and failed bearish follow-through.
- Market Structure:
- Higher lows and sustained bullish reactions post-liquidity sweeps reinforce an upward trajectory.
- Current structure suggests accumulation and breakout patterns toward the proposed target.
🎯 Target Projection: 89.690
Bullish bounce off major support?USD/JPY has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 145.92
1st Support: 145.23
1st Resistance: 147.14
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
$UJ (USDJPY) 1HPrice tapped into a 4H FVG (gray zone 146.800–146.300), a high-probability reversal zone when paired with liquidity sweep and break of structure.
The bullish internal trendline was cleanly broken, signaling a short-term shift in momentum.
Prior to the drop, price ran buy-side liquidity resting above previous highs (marked $$$), fulfilling liquidity objectives before reversing.
The move into the 4H-FVG occurred in premium territory, ideal for institutional distribution.
As long as price holds below 146.300 (top of the FVG), the bearish leg remains valid.
Next liquidity target is around 145.240, where previous sell-side liquidity (lows marked $$$) is resting.