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NZD/JPY: A Potential Reversal in the MakingThe NZD/JPY pair has recently caught the attention of traders following a notable drop to the 83.000 level. This move downwards was met with significant demand pressure, setting the stage for what appears to be a potential reversal. Starting from last Wednesday, the pair has shown signs of recovery, indicating that a bullish trend might be on the horizon. From a Supply and Demand perspective, the dip to 83.000 acted as a critical demand zone, where buyers stepped in to support the price. This zone, which had previously been tested, held firm, suggesting that there is substantial interest in the NZD/JPY at these levels. As the pair began to rise from this support, it confirmed that the demand pressure was strong enough to halt the decline and possibly reverse the trend. Adding to the bullish sentiment is the analysis of the Commitment of Traders (COT) report. The latest data indicates a shift in positioning among large speculators and commercial traders. These market participants, who often have access to more comprehensive market data and insights, appear to be positioning themselves for a potential upward move in the NZD/JPY. This shift in sentiment among key market players further reinforces the likelihood of a reversal. Seasonality also plays a role in our bullish outlook. Historically, certain times of the year have been more favorable for the NZD/JPY pair, with increased demand for the New Zealand dollar during specific seasons. This seasonal trend, combined with the current technical setup and COT data, provides a strong case for considering a long position in the pair. In conclusion, the recent drop in NZD/JPY to the 83.000 level has sparked a potential reversal, supported by strong demand, favorable COT positioning, and seasonal factors. Traders looking to capitalize on this opportunity should consider a long position, keeping a close eye on further developments in the market. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
GBPJPY H4 - Short SignalGBPJPY H4 Potential shorts in the firing line here on GBPJPY. This 188.100 price is trading very close to this 188 whole number, we could start to see some resistance, rejections and sell-off from this trading zone. We have previously sold off a huge 3000 points over the last few weeks, one of the biggest corrections we have seen in a VERY LONG time. It will be interesting to see how we perform during market open in 15 minutes for the UK session. Based on the swing high price dated 01/08/2024 to recent low price dated 05/08/2024, we are also trading at a key 618 corrective level.
Short
by Trade_Simple_FX
Bullish rise?USD/JPY has bounced off the pivot and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance. Pivot: 145.48 1st Support: 142.06 1st Resistance: 149.30 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
Massive Sentiment Swing (Bears vs Bulls Royal Rumble)Many traders were looking for answers this week. What just happened? The quick summary is the JPY carry trade was quickly unwinding and as the Nikkei 225 was dumping with the largest 2 day move (EVER) the JPY volatility increased. On top of that, the FED didn't cut rates in July (as expected) and elected to punt to September (with likely 25 bps cut forecasted). Unfortunately, Thursday Unemployment Claims were higher and Friday's Non-Farm was a massive whiff. This triggered concerns that the FED is now behind the curve and the economy is heading into a recession (Sahm Rule is undefeated as a predictor). Key takeaways from me this week - VIX made the 2nd largest single day spike (Friday to Monday), and 24 hrs later made the 1st largest single day retreat (Monday to Tuesday). As I explain in the video, eerily similar volatility event like we saw in 2017 into January 2018. History rhymes and 2017/2018 were very different economic times compared to today. The week ahead is a bit lighter on US earnings, but key news is PPI and CPI (Tue and Wed prints). I'll be watching the key equilibrium levels to see who gets the upper hand. Do bears attempt to push price lower and re-test the lows? Do bulls continue to rip after the outlier cleanse and we're back to all-time highs before the election or end of year? We'll find out. I'll be watching and trading and doing my best. Thanks for watching!!!
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
Potential bullish rise?USD/JPY has bounced off the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could rise to our take profit. Entry: 145.53 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 142.15 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Take profit: 150.83 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level which is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
Potential bullish rise?NZD/JPY has bounced off the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance identified as an overlap resistance. Pivot: 87.19 1st Support: 85.45 1st Resistance: 89.94 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
Bullish Reversal on USD/JPY"Based on the demand and supply zones strategy, we anticipate a bullish reversal in USD/JPY. After a significant downward movement, the price has reached a key demand zone, where buyers typically step in, creating upward pressure. Historically, these zones have acted as strong support, leading to substantial rebounds. Current market sentiment, combined with the oversold condition, suggests that buyers will overpower sellers, pushing the price upwards. This spike is likely to gain momentum as more traders recognize the opportunity and enter the market." "Please note that the information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Market predictions are inherently uncertain, and trading involves risk. I am not responsible for any financial losses or damages that may result from trading decisions based on this analysis. Always conduct your own research or consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions."
Long
by ShikoFX
Potential bullish rise?USD/JPY has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the pullback resistance. Pivot: 145.48 1st Support: 142.06 1st Resistance: 150.84 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
GBPJPY 10H / (Consolidation Zone)GBPJPY Analyse The price will consolidate between 188.290 and 186.378 till breaking. there is two scenarios after breaking the pivot zone Bearish Scenario: stability under 186.378 by closing 4h canlde will supporr falling to get 184.120 and 182.450 then should stabilize under it to get a next bearish station 177.930 Bullish Scenario: the price should break 188.291 to be uptrend till 191.580 Key Points: Pivot Line: 187.400 Support lines: 184.115, 182.495, 180.180 Resistance Lines: 188.290, 189.975, 191.585 Tendency: Downward
Short
by SroshMayi
1
BOJ Rate Hike Causes Unrest in the Stock Markets: What next?When the Bank of Japan hiked its interest rate at the end of July, global markets went into turbulence. We will discuss what currency carry trade is, why the yen carry trade has caused this global volatility, and, importantly, whether the market will resume its uptrend. Micro E-Mini Nasdaq Futures and Options Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Japanese Yen Futures Ticker: 6J 0.0000005 per JPY increment = $6.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by konhow
9
Black Monday 2024? Discussing Current Markets and PositionsDuring Monday's open, I said this is going to be a day for the history books. Volatility expanded nearly 200% on the day (over 300% in a 3 day period), the Nikkei 225 crashed over 12% in a single day and had the largest 2 day decline ever. It leaked into the US markets with a nasty bearish futures run and massive gaps lower. Fortunately Monday's trading didn't make things much worse, but the damage was already done for many with that dramatic vol expansion. As the dust settles a bit more into Tuesday's trading, I wanted to review everything. Enjoy!!!
NASDAQ:NDX
by ChrisPulver
Gold vs. Yen Carry Trade: A Shifting Paradigm For years, the yen carry trade has been a cornerstone of many investment portfolios. This strategy involves borrowing low-yielding Japanese yen to invest in higher-yielding assets, such as US Treasuries. However, a confluence of factors is making gold, represented by the XAU/USD pair, an increasingly attractive alternative. The Yen Carry Trade Under Pressure The yen carry trade has historically been a profitable strategy, fueled by Japan's ultra-low interest rate environment. However, recent developments have cast a shadow over its allure. • Rising Interest Rates: Global central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have embarked on a tightening cycle to combat inflation. This has narrowed the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, reducing the potential profit from the carry trade. • Yen Strength: The Japanese yen has shown unexpected resilience, countering the traditional trend of yen weakness. This is partly due to safe-haven flows as investors seek refuge from global economic uncertainties. • Geopolitical Risks: Increased geopolitical tensions can disrupt carry trades. A sudden shift in risk appetite can lead to rapid yen appreciation, erasing potential gains and incurring significant losses. The Allure of Gold In contrast, gold has emerged as a compelling investment option. • Safe-Haven Asset: Gold is often perceived as a safe-haven asset, providing a hedge against economic uncertainty, inflation, and geopolitical risks. As global economic conditions become increasingly volatile, investors may seek the security of gold. • Inflation Hedge: With inflation concerns persisting, gold has historically been seen as an effective inflation hedge. As the price of goods and services rises, the purchasing power of fiat currencies declines, making gold an attractive store of value. • Diversification Benefits: Gold can help diversify an investment portfolio. Its low correlation with traditional asset classes can reduce overall portfolio risk. • Central Bank Demand: Central banks have been net buyers of gold in recent years, supporting its price. This ongoing demand can provide a bullish undercurrent for the gold market. XAU/USD: A Closer Look The XAU/USD pair, representing the price of gold in US dollars, offers investors exposure to the gold market. • Dollar Dynamics: While gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset, the US dollar can also appreciate in times of uncertainty. Therefore, the performance of XAU/USD depends on the interplay between gold and the dollar. • Interest Rate Sensitivity: Gold is generally inversely correlated with interest rates. Rising interest rates can put downward pressure on gold prices, as investors may prefer higher-yielding bonds. However, this relationship is not always straightforward, and other factors can influence gold's price. Conclusion The decision to invest in gold or continue with the yen carry trade is a complex one, influenced by individual risk tolerance, investment horizon, and market outlook. While the yen carry trade has historically been a profitable strategy, the changing interest rate environment and geopolitical risks have increased its challenges. Gold, with its safe-haven appeal and inflation-hedging properties, offers a compelling alternative. Investors should carefully consider the potential benefits and risks of both options before making a decision. It's important to note that this article provides general information and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by bryandowningqln