Market tests BoJ with yen at 1986 low The Japanese yen tumbled beyond 160 per USD, marking its weakest level since 1986. This is a critical threshold that previously prompted intervention by Japanese authorities. In May, Japan depleted a record ¥9.8 trillion to bolster the yen.
Masato Kanda, Tokyo's top currency diplomat, attempted to mitigate the surge above 160.00 with strong verbal interventions, yet he mentioned no specific target level. This ambiguity was perceived by some market participants as a green light to drive the pair to 160.82.
The lack of immediate intervention from the Bank of Japan post-160 breakout raises questions: Does this signal an open path to the next psychological levels?
In June alone, the yen has slipped roughly 1.5% against the dollar, extending its year-to-date decline to about 13%. Should there be a retracement from the previous 160 intervention level, buying interest is expected to resurface around the 158.00 support, aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Fundamentally, traders are eyeing tomorrow's US Jobless Claims data, followed by Tokyo CPI and US PCE releases on Friday, which could be critical in shaping the next moves in the yen.
Jpy
USDJPY / Consolidation with Potential for Bullish ContinuationMarket Consolidation and Key Levels:
The price has broken the all-time high and stabilized above it. As long as it trades above 159.820, it will remain in the bullish zone, targeting 161.800.
Bullish Scenario:
For the bullish trend to persist, the price must stabilize above 159.820, with an aim towards a target of 161.800.
Bearish Scenario:
A downtrend will be confirmed if the price stabilizes below 159.820, potentially reaching 159.110.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 159.820
- Resistance Levels: 160.500, 161.300, 161.850
- Support Levels: 159.220, 158.800, 157.980
Summary:
The market is currently in a consolidation phase between 159.820 and 158.800. A break above 159.820 signals a bullish continuation towards 161.700, while stability below 158.800 indicates a potential decline to 157.970.
In summary, the key level to watch is 159.820. A move above this level confirms bullish momentum, while a drop below 158.800 suggests further downside potential.
Previous idea:
EURJPY SHORT - Long the strong, short the weak.Hi all,
This week I am sharing my play on EURJPY.
With JPYBASKET showing both accumulation and some weakness (another liquidity grab today), with Japan Bank saying - increasing interest rates is an option now, with strong long positions on JPY by commercial banks and short positions advantage on EUR, the EURJPY pair is my safest pair to trade this week.
I am both managing a major short there and scalping the range to the downside.
I am expecting return to 168.1 - 168.2 area at minimum!
Good luck and play safe!
MACD Divergence and Overbought Signals: Time to Short NZDJPY?The Yen has been getting hammered across the board lately, and there’s no telling how far these pairs can go long-term.
However, in every strong uptrend, buyers eventually take profits, allowing the market to dip and providing opportunities to re-enter at better levels.
This scenario seems likely for NZDJPY. We've just popped above a key Monthly resistance level, the swing high from 2007. We’re likely to see buyers ease off and short sellers step in. Here’s why.
There are several signs that a reversal is imminent. First, we are extremely overbought across all higher timeframes. While this alone isn’t a signal to enter a trade, combined with the Monthly resistance level, it looks promising.
What gives me even more confidence in a sell-off is the Daily chart. It shows clear evidence of slowing buying momentum with choppy price action. After each new high, there’s an immediate sell-off. The most compelling signal is the MACD divergence on the Daily chart (see image below).
The combination of extreme overbought conditions and MACD divergence at this key Monthly level gives me confidence in entering a sell trade.
The next step is to identify potential drop targets and where buyers might regroup. Two key targets stand out:
The previous Monthly resistance, the 2014 high at 93.5, which is the first target for this sell setup.
The 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at 88.5, just above the 2022 highs that held for over a year before breaking out again at the start of this year. This area is likely to attract buyers as shown in the image below
My plan is to sell now and close 25% of my position every 200-pip drop. After the first drop, I will move my stop loss to the entry price.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments.
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 51 - JPYTHB - (25th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing JPYTHB, starting from the 2-Month chart.
If you want to learn more, check out my profile.
Consolidation Phase:Key Levels and Scenarios for Market MovementTrend Analysis Summary
Market Consolidation and Key Levels:
The price recently reached the resistance line and corrected down to the support line at 158.800. Currently, it is expected to consolidate between 159.820 and 158.800 until a breakout occurs. Stability below the support zone (159.100 - 158.800) suggests a potential drop to 157.970.
Bullish Scenario:
For the bullish trend to continue, the price must break above 159.820 and close a 4-hour candle above this level, aiming for a target of 161.700.
Bearish Scenario:
As long as the price trades below 159.820, it may attempt to drop again to gather bullish momentum. Stability below 158.800 could lead to a decline toward 157.970.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 159.820
- Resistance Levels: 160.500, 161.300, 161.850
- Support Levels: 159.220, 158.800, 157.980
Summary:
The market is in a consolidation phase between 159.820 and 158.800. A break above 159.820 signals a bullish continuation toward 161.700, while stability below 158.800 indicates a potential drop to 157.970.
previous idea:
USDJPY - Bearish => Bullish => Bearish?Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 As per my last two analysis (attached on the chart), USDJPY rejected the $160 resistance and traded lower, then rejected the lower trendlines and traded higher.
What's next?
USDJPY has been trading within a medium-term rising channel marked in orange. And currently, it is hovering around the upper bound of the channel.
Moreover, it is retesting the $160 resistance level again.
🏹 Thus, it is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the green resistance and upper orange trendline acting as a non-horizontal resistance.
📚 As per my trading style:
I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
GBPJPY The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 7-2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged, aligning with broad expectations. Swati Dhingra and Dave Ramsden again voted to lower the rate by 25 basis points to 5.00%.
The BoE indicated that as part of the August (rate cut) forecast, the Committee will review all available information to assess whether the risks of persistent inflation are diminishing. Based on this assessment, the Committee will determine how long the Bank Rate should be maintained at the current level.
Despite CPI falling to 2% in May, the Bank expects CPI to "rise slightly" in the second half of the year due to base effects from last year's energy price declines. Additionally, the Bank noted that services inflation at 5.7% was "somewhat higher" than projected in the May monetary policy report.
In terms of growth, GDP appears to have grown "more strongly than expected" in the first half of the year but remains at a quarterly growth rate of around 0.25%.
Market Outlook: We are less concerned with the timing of the BoE's first rate cut and more focused on the expected limited and gradual rate cuts. For us, the biggest issue is not necessarily the timing of the first rate cut, but the pace and extent of rate cuts after the first one. In an era of global economic fragmentation, supply-side fluctuations, and fiscal activism, 2% is the lower bound for inflation, not the upper limit. This suggests a gradual easing cycle, with rates stabilizing above pre-pandemic levels.
Gbpjpy again has a potential buy pattern and if it crosses the pivot we can first expect a down market and further a potential further downward or upward retracement.
bullish targets:
202.05
202.30
202.57
202.80
Bearish Targets:
201.50
201.28
201.02
200.80
For more updates follow us Boost us so that we can reach more people
EURJPY Fool-Surprise Reverse Ok ?EURJPY direction.
Well, I am excited the algos pushed the price 0.2% higher in compariston to yesterday, we are still due to dump 1-2% to the downside.
Lets Go. Accumulate more and more shorts, this is the only direction.
THIS IS JUST MY PLAN - NOT AN ADVICE.
No stop loss at this point, after loosing crucial levels, we can expect JPY central bank interventionm at any point, and - I am surprised idiot traders are still pushing the price in wrong directon still.
Take profit: 168.13
Stop loss: NONE.
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 50 - EURJPY - (21st June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing EURJPY, starting from the 2-Month chart.
If you want to learn more, check out my profile.
Inflation Concerns and Risk Sentiment: Implications for NZD/JPYAttention Traders,
In today's trading session, we are closely monitoring the NZD/JPY pair for a potential buying opportunity around the 96.900 zone. Currently, NZD/JPY is in an uptrend but is undergoing a correction phase as it approaches the key support and resistance area at 96.900.
From a fundamental perspective, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has shown no intentions of cutting rates, given that inflation remains a significant concern. On the other hand, the Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to underperform against major currencies due to prevailing risk sentiment, maintaining its bearish outlook.
Stay vigilant and trade safely.
Best regards,
Joe
NZDJPY - Keeping It Simple!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 NZDJPY has been overall bullish, trading within the flat rising orange channel.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #NZDJPY approaches the upper bound of the channel, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
EURJPY to find sellers at market?EURJPY - 24h expiry
We are trading at overbought extremes.
Price action looks to be forming a top.
This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower.
We look to sell rallies.
Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
We look to Sell at 169.90 (stop at 170.40)
Our profit targets will be 168.70 and 168.30
Resistance: 171.20 / 175.50 / 178.55
Support: 168.95 / 167.35 / 164.30
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The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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USD/JPY continues to struggle ~158Over the past three days we have seen two false breaks above 158, both resulting with a daily shooting star reversal. The upper wicks also serve as a double top above 158, and with US economic data slowly souring, the case for a top on USD/JPY is building.
Prices have found support around the May high, and another crack at 158 would not come as a surprise. Yet given that the daily RSI (2) is overbought and has formed a bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart, and the highest volume of yesterday coincided with a large bearish bar, the bias remains to fade into rallies around 158 or Friday's high in anticipation of its next leg lower.
157.30, 157 and 156.60 are the next downside targets for bears to consider.
USD/JPY: Keeping an eye on false breaksOn Friday we saw USD/JPY failed to hold onto intraday gains above 158 following the BOJ meeting, and close the day back beneath the prior 'MOF intervention' level to form a shooting star candle.
Prices drifted higher on Monday on relatively low volume, putting us once again on guard for either a false break of 158 or Friday's high.
We're seeing a simple countertrend move back down to the high-volume node around 157.30 or even 157, should US data surprise enough to the downside later today.
Bearish drop?USD/JPY is rising towards a resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 158.20
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 159.21
Why we like it:
There is a resistance level at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 157.30
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
GBPJPY H4 - Sell SignalGBPJPY H4
We have pinned into our first sell zone here on GBPJPY. 200.800 price has been wicked on the H4 and we have the London volume to see where this may now take us. Would like to see this zone hold and rejections form from this price.
If resistance does break, we have the yearly high sell zone as a second approach (final attempt). Lets see what unfolds.
Sell USD/JPY Wedge BreakoutThe USD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Wedge Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position below The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 157.55.
Target Levels :
1st Support – 156.00
2nd Support – 155.20
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 158.35. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
Thank you.
Bearish drop?USD/JPY is reacting off a resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 157.72
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 158.48
Why we like it:
There is a resistance level at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 155.79
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bearish on USDJPYThe recent price action shows a push towards a resistance zone, indicating potential exhaustion or a reversal point.
The shaded area marks a significant resistance zone around the 157.700 - 158.000 levels. This zone has been tested multiple times and has held as a strong supply area.
Immediate support can be identified around the 156.500 level, which aligns with previous swing lows and a possible demand zone.
A stronger support level is around 155.500, a psychological round number that has acted as a base for previous price reversals.
Below the 156.500 support level, there may be sell-side liquidity, where sell stops from long positions could be resting.
The resistance area (157.700 - 158.000) is a supply zone, where significant selling interest could push the price lower.
A notable fair value gap (FVG) or imbalance between 155.500 and 157.000 from previous price movements suggests potential areas for price retracement.
Entry: Consider entering a short position around the 157.700 - 158.000 resistance zone.
Stop Loss: Place the stop loss slightly above the resistance zone, around 158.200, to account for potential liquidity grabs.
Take Profit: Aim to take profits around the immediate support at 156.500 and a more extended target around the 155.500 level, aligning with the demand zone and previous lows.
EURJPY - Follow The Bears!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 EURJPY has been overall bearish, trading within the falling red channel.
Currently, EURJPY is undergoing a correction phase and it is currently approaching the upper bound of the channel.
Moreover, it is retesting strong supply zone marked in blue.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for trend-following sell setups as it is the intersection of the blue supply zone and upper red trendline acting as a non-horizontal resistance.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #EURJPY approaches the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Potential bearish reversal?USD/JPY is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 157.96
1st Support: 155.78
1st Resistance: 158.93
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