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NZDJPY to continue in the downward move?NZDJPY - 24h expiry Indecisive price action has resulted in sideways congestion on the intraday chart. RSI (relative strength indicator) is flat and reading close to 50 (mid-point) highlighting the fact that we are non- trending. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels. A move through 90.60 will confirm the bearish momentum. The measured move target is 90.40. We look to Sell at 91.00 (stop at 91.25) Our profit targets will be 90.35 and 90.15 Resistance: 90.75 / 91.00 / 91.25 Support: 90.50 / 90.40 / 90.25 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Short
by OANDA
Technical Update - GBPJPY testing 190, likely resuming uptrend The GBPJPY pair is testing the 0.618 retracement at 190.04. The RSI shows positive sentiment and has broken above its falling trendline, indicating that GBPJPY is likely to break above the 0.618 retracement and move higher. If the RSI closes back above the 60 thresholds, GBPJPY is likely to break above the February peak at 191.33 and move towards the 1.382 projections at 192.61. A close below 187.85 will reverse the bullish scenario and push GBPJPY lower to 186.17
by Saxo
Technical Update - USDJPY testing key resitance The USDJPY pair has rebounded to the 0.618 retracement and key resistance at around 149.20. If it is rejected and fails to close above, the pair could slide back to 148.15 possibly lower. A daily close above 149.20 level indicates short-term potential to reach the February peak at around 150.84, with the 2022 peak at 151.95 also in sight. The RSI is showing negative sentiment, suggesting that USDJPY is likely to be rejected at the 149.20 resistance. However, an RSI close above the 60 thresholds would change this outlook
by Saxo
AUDJPY possible dropAfter price broke structure to the downside with momentum, it preceded to retrace back towards a very extreme supply zone that it left behind during the expansion. It has currently formed liquidity below this supply zone that it could use to fuel its move further to the downside to break the recently formed weak low. The reason a short would be ideal now is because although we are bullish on larger time frames, we are currently bearish on lower time frames and are riding the retracement of the larger higher time frame move.
Short
by BlackTygaTrades
USD JPYMy analysis on USD JPY, I use limit orders so I don't need to be in front of the chart all day. To consider this a good entry there are certain criteria to follow: 1. Clean BoS with IMB. 2. * Look for areas where liquidity has been purged. 3. * Stochastic: in uptrend 0-15, in downtrend 85-100. ( * ) = Not optional but increases our probability. I use Fibonacci to get these extreme points and my preferred one is 75% retracement, with a risk-reward of 1:3. Set and forget. Trade carefully, This is not financial advice, DYOR.
Short
by betimmavriqi
5
GBP JPYMy analysis on GBP JPY, I use limit orders so I don't need to be in front of the chart all day. To consider this a good entry there are certain criteria to follow: 1. Clean BoS with IMB. 2. * Look for areas where liquidity has been purged. 3. * Stochastic: in uptrend 0-15, in downtrend 85-100. ( * ) = Not optional but increases our probability. I use Fibonacci to get these extreme points and my preferred one is 75% retracement, with a risk-reward of 1:3. Set and forget. Trade carefully, This is not financial advice, DYOR.
Short
by betimmavriqi
EUR JPYMy analysis on EUR JPY, I use limit orders so I don't need to be in front of the chart all day. To consider this a good entry there are certain criteria to follow: 1. Clean BoS with IMB. 2. * Look for areas where liquidity has been purged. 3. * Stochastic: in uptrend 0-15, in downtrend 85-100. ( * ) = Not optional but increases our probability. I use Fibonacci to get these extreme points and my preferred one is 75% retracement, with a risk-reward of 1:3. Set and forget. Trade carefully, This is not financial advice, DYOR.
Short
by betimmavriqi
BOJ to deliver 1st hike in 17 years tomorrow? There is possibly no bigger trading event this week than the Bank of Japan’s decision on Monday. The groundwork for abandoning negative interest rates has been subtly laid since last year, and now, this could very well be the month they choose to make their move. The prospect of ending a policy entrenched for nearly two decades could significantly move the USDJPY. The catalyzing force for the BoJ to end negative interest rates are the substantial wage hikes big corporations and their labor unions agreed on this year. On Friday, the Japanese Trade Union Confederation, the country's largest labor organization, disclosed that this year's annual wage negotiations produced remarkable outcomes. Major corporations witnessed an average hike of 5.28%, the largest wage increase in 33 years. Because of this, The Bank of Japan could be thinking that the current economic climate is OK for sustaining a stable 2% inflation rate in an environment without negative interest rates. Even in the eventuality of the negative rate policy ceasing, Governor Ueda has emphasized the continuity of accommodative monetary conditions. The BOJ will likely keep interest rates at zero percent. So, watch out for overreactions to this news too, and corrective moves in Yen pairs.
by BlackBull_Markets
2
A Traders’ Weekly Playbook: Long event risk, short sleepThe markets will come alive this week reacting to the outcomes of an incredible array of tier 1 event risk, with some 14 central bank meetings, including six G10 central bank meetings, as well as numerous emerging market central banks too. At a more micro level, Nvidia takes centre stage with the highly anticipated GPT conference a potential volatility driver for the AI juggernaut. We consider that the findings could impact the wider semiconductor space and even promote volatility across broad markets. In the playbook, we break down what matters most in each event risk and what could drive market moves above all else, while offering trading thoughts on where the skew of risk resides. This coming week there will be opportunities across markets, but more importantly, the ability to skillfully manage risk and assess correct position sizing will be where traders live to fight another day. For a more detailed run-through of the week’s events, as well as analysis of the technical set-ups front of mind and the trades I am reviewing, join the livestream on TradingView on Monday at 1pm AEDT. Good luck to all. Key event risk for the radar this week Nvidia GTC conference (18-21 March) After a record 10 weeks of consecutive gains for Nvidia’s share price, investors get a chance to hear more about the future of generative AI, as well as new products in the pipeline and potential sales opportunities through the lens of the AI market leader. We hear from CEO Jensen Huang (on 18 March) and other key figures within the business. Expectations that the conference will hit the sweet spot are sky-high and the options market implies an -/+11.6% move in the share prices by Friday. The importance of Nvidia to the broad US and even global equity market can’t be overstated and the read-through to semiconductors and the wider NAS100 is a real risk. AI has been the key equity theme for a while and will continue to be so, and Nvidia is at the epicentre of this. The prospect of a sell-on-fact scenario is a real risk. Tencent – a key influence on the HK50 index, Tencent report earnings on 20 March with the options market implying a -/+3.8% move on the day of earnings. The HK50 index has formed a wedge pattern within a long-term bear channel – a set-up that needs monitoring – preference to chase strength should price break above 17,200. FOMC meeting (21 March at 05:00 AEDT) and Chair Jay Powell’s press conference (05:30 AEDT) What to focus on: • The Fed won’t cut rates at this meeting and the guidance and overall tone will likely remain unchanged from prior commentary. US interest rate swaps price 75bp of cuts by year-end, so the FOMC statement, economic projection (SEPs) and Jay Powell’s press conference will need to reconcile against that pricing. • The ‘dots’ are key – if 2 Fed members lift their projection for the fed funds rate in 2024 it will result in the median projection for the collective being reduced to 2 cuts (from 3) through 2024. Given market pricing for 75bp of cuts this year, a move towards 2 cuts for 2024 as the median ‘dot’ should cause US bond yields to spike higher, taking the USD higher and US equity and gold trade lower. • The longer-term projection for the fed funds rate – or what is considered the ‘neutral rate’ for Fed policy - currently sits at 2.5% - could this be revised higher to 2.75%? • If the Fed’s 2024 dot for 2024 remains at 4.6% (and for 3 rate cuts), but we also see an upgrade to the 2024 GDP forecast (currently 1.4%), we could feasibly see a relief rally in equity and gold and promote USD sellers. Trader thoughts: The algo’s will be set to respond rapidly to the 2024 dot, as this is what matters above all else. A move to pencil in 2 rate cuts this year is not consensus but it is a real possibility and would likely see markets implied rate cuts by December 2024 reduced from 75bp to 60bp of implied cuts. This outcome would see the USD spike and see equity and gold trade lower. Conversely, if the 2024 ‘dot’ remains at 3 cuts, then we could see an immediate relief rally in risky assets and gold. The risk to markets seems balanced, so it seems prudent to reduce exposures over the FOMC meeting and look to react accordingly when the facts are known. BoJ meeting (19 March – likely seen between 1pm and 4pm AEDT) • Despite strong union wage increases on Friday, 29 of 31 economists see BoJ rates left at -0.1%, with a view that the BoJ send a strong signal they will hike rates in the April meeting. Market pricing, however, implies a 10bp hike at 50%, suggesting an elevated risk of JPY volatility over the meeting. • We also look for changes to Yield Curve Control (YCC) and/or the pace of bond and ETF purchases. Trader thoughts – Again, the algos will play a key role in determining initial market moves, and hedge funds will set them to respond squarely on whether we see a 10bp hike or not. While the broad market is short of JPY it feels that unless we see a 10bp hike and changes to the rate of JGB purchases then it will be hard to promote a material move higher in the JPY. Swiss National Bank (21 March at 19:30 AEDT) • The Swiss swaps market prices the chance of a 25bp cut at 30% • 18 of 20 economists see interest rates unchanged at 1.75% Trader thoughts – Two weeks ago the broad view was that the SNB could cut rates by 25bp, perhaps even by 50bp – now the broad consensus view is that the SNB leave policy unchanged at 1.75%. Given market pricing, the risk is we see a bigger move lower in the CHF on a 25bp cut, than any potential rally in the CHF should the SNB leaves policy unchanged. Short CHFJPY and Long USDCHF positions subsequently look attractive – although, as many traders will attest to, trading over news like this needs to be carefully considered and position sizing is of paramount importance. Banxico (22 March at 06:00 AEDT) • Mexican swaps price a 25bp cut at an 80% probability. • 16 of 18 economists see a 25bp rate cut to get the overnight rate to 11% Trader thoughts – With a 25bp cut - that commences a potential cutting cycle, largely priced by rates traders, a surprise outcome to leave rates unchanged could see USDMXN trade through 16.65 and into new cycle lows. Should the market get the expected 25bp cut we could see a move through 16.75, but the extent of the rally will be down to the statement and whether there is a strong appetite to cut again soon. Bank of England (21 March at 23:00 AEDT) • The BoE statement will likely be a low volatility event for the GBP, with the UK swaps market not pricing the first full 25bp cut until August. Look for a 7-1-1 split decision and a patient stance, with the BoE content with current market pricing on rate expectations. Trader thoughts – I hold no real directional bias for the GBP from this meeting, so GBPUSD will likely take its direction from the UK CPI print and moves in the S&P500 and broad risk semantics. That said, the trend in GBPUSD skews risks to the downside, and I favour GBPUSD shorts, with stops above 1.2770. RBA meeting (19 March at 14:30 AEDT) • Aussie interest rate futures prices a zero probability of a cut at this meeting, with a full 25bp cut priced by September. We also see 38bp (or 1.5 25bp cuts) priced by December. • The RBA statement will likely remain largely unchanged, guiding that “it will take some time before inflation is sustainably in the target range”, and “further increase in interest rates cannot be ruled out”. While other central banks actively express a bias for rate cuts, it would be a shock to the market if the RBA opened the door to cuts in this statement. Trader thoughts – the RBA meeting will likely be a low-volatility affair, and AUDUSD is likely to take its direction this week from the FOMC meeting, as well as iron ore, copper, and Chinese equities. A break of 0.6550 may see the early March lows of 0.6477 revisited, although this would be unlikely unless the VIX index trades into 17% and we see broad de-risking through broad markets. Norges (Norway) Bank (21 March at 20:00 AEDT) – the market implies a zero probability of a change in Norwegian interest rates at this meeting, with the first 25bp cut not fully priced until September. I am biased for USDNOK to push towards the top of the range at 10.70. China PBoC 1 & 5-year Prime rate (20 March at 12:15 AEDT) – after a larger-than-expected cut last month to the prime rate (the benchmark rate that households and businesses can borrow from commercial banks), the PBoC are unlikely to cut the prime rate again this time around. A surprise cut would therefore likely see Chinese/HK equities rally. Colombia central bank (23 March at 05:00 AEDT) – the consensus is for rates to be cut by 50bp to 12.25%. Will this forum be the catalyst to see USDCOP break out of the tight trading range the pair has held throughout 2024? Brazil central bank (21 March at 08:30 AEDT) – the overwhelming consensus is that we see the Selic (interest) rate cut by 50bp cut to 10.75%. Other key economic data points of note – China retail sales/industrial production/property sales (18 March), Canada CPI (19 March), UK CPI (20 March), Australia employment report (21 March), EU manufacturing and services PMI (21 March).
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Pepperstone
UJ could have a little upside more,note BOJ and FED ratesHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. This week gonna be a hectic week for most of the majors with the interest rate news. There are levels to watch on UJ and catch up with me on my streaming to hear me out on deeper analysis! Do check out my stream video for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
Long
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
USDJPY BULLISH SHORT HEDGES CLOSED U.S. Treasury yields extend We closed onJan.2nd 2024 our short hedges, and now again all long bullish positions since 14th January 2021 are active. Question:Is Trend Following ,,BUY-and-Hold Strategy? A nswer:Noway. We are not Buy and Hold investor,we take advantages of the ups and downs of the maets. We seel short or buy long at any giveen tradable market, with high liquidity and Capitalization. Lower liquidate markets are not interesting for us. Also volatile markets are in center of our focus . Trend following is the ultimate trading strategy you can be profitable over time at the markets. Every trader can gain profits only if following the price and trends. So also a scalper could be a trend follower(on 30 secon chart TF).Other wise he will lose money, because he trades against the trend. Questions which may are in your minds: How far can the market go? Answer. We are not predictive traders, as we follow the price only, becuase the price is the only unmanipulated indicator.All other indicators follow the price. It is possible to forcast the market for 3-5 days(60%-90% accuracy).But longer than that periode it is not possible, as many event or unexpected events(nature catastrophic scenarios LIKE Tsunami,..) make it impossible. Therefor anyone who says the market will (ofrecasting a time periode over 5D, is in our opinion not a seriouse trader) Question3: Where is your stop and where your Take profit level?Answer: We have more than 150 different exit strategies- and entrie.Important is:To enter orexit exactly athe the right time . We dont set Take profit limits, as it is a very unintelligent way to limit the profits. Instead we limit the possible potential losses,based on mathematicalformulas, position sizing, position reducing, sty.out orders(When we are not allowed to enter,exit,or size the positions. This methode is proven based on our historical performance. Our ultimate goals are: Protection of the account, Maximum profits possible over time Question 2: When do you take out your positions?ANWER.If stop hits(we do it immediately. We ignore all noises(News,opinions on minds or other places. ).We only respect the sinals of our trading system and its rules. ONLY. Question:How deep can US dolalr fall? Answer:Until the bears lose control and the bulls take control over the bears again. Question:How high can US Dollar go? Answer:Until the bulls lose control an the bears take contril over the bulls again. Question: How can I find out where the bears /bulls losie control? Answer:There are many different ways. The real answer is your trading strategy: Remember you are also part of your trading strategy.The best trading strategy cannot help you, if you permanently hurt your trading rules(Every day changing your strategy,copy trading, listenning to other peoples opinions instead sticking to your rule. As you are the pilot or captain of your trading ystem you need to be extremyl and strongly diciplined. And follow the price:Trend. There is no bull side,no bear side, but only the right side of the markets. The trend is your friend. Plan your trade and trade your plan. During this time we trailed our stops, that are now on positive territory(above average long trend price.During this time we had 7 Big Taing profits (Thank our Hedging strategy. All Profits ,which we took during this long periode was on temporarily short hedge trades, that we excecuted and closed. Because many of my followers asked me to explain this strategy, I have sketched and explained the key moments on the chart. The advantages of this strategy are huge, a we are sworn trend follower,but on the same time take advatage of big key momentum periodes. It is irrelevant if you take the trades on higher TF like here mentioned on 5H TF or on 1 min. TF or other. Important is that you immediately take the signals. This is essential as we hedge for higher periodes of time.For instance it is not possibleto use the hedging strategy on lower TF or for 10,20, minutes or even below D, as the correlation comes in play. Alsoyou need a very accurate trading system and strategy that gives very accurate signals.It is important to hedge only ,if positions are in profit.If positions are not in profit, only stop loss will protect the account. Therefor we use hedging strategis only to protect our mid and long term positionsBullish/Beaish positons). As here many daytraders are at work, hedging will not help them, Therefor I recommand to learn trendfollowing strategies to stay as long as possible at the market, to gain the maximum potential of trend That will effort and needs patience. But the profits which are extremely huge will compensate all that effort. Thans on our position sizing formula it is also possible to size up or size down our positions at any given time.That way we make sure that the maximumdrawdown of the account not brea to 1% level. This is very important as because of the correlation orIV sometimes themaet can for a short time run against you, and you get wpedout with margin call, and then if the market runs in you desired or forecasted direction(But this time without YOU!!!) . With this strategy ,that we are currently trading +99 Markets, the account is at all timewell protected. The momentum is currently bullish again, The U.S. dollar accelerates higher as U.S. Treasury yields extend rebound following a poor performance in late 2023 Attention will be on the ISM manufacturing survey and the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report later in the week. The US dollar, as measured by the DXY index, started the new year on the front foot, rising for the third consecutive session, supported by a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year note up 7 bp to 3.93%. In this context, the DXY index climbed 0.7% to 102.10 in early afternoon trading in New York, posting its biggest daily advance since October, ahead of high-impact events later in the week. Key releases, including the ISM manufacturing survey and the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report (NFP), will give an opportunity to assess the economic outlook and ascertain if projections of aggressive interest rate cuts for 2024 hold merit. If manufacturing activity accelerates in a meaningful way and employment growth surprises to the upside, investors are likely to pare bets on deep interest-rate cuts, foreseeing that the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to slash borrowing costs substantially in a stable economy for fear of reigniting inflation. This scenario would be bullish for the U.S. dollar. On the flip side, if the data disappoints and shows cracks in the economy, especially in the labor market, it would not be surprising to see the Fed's policy outlook shift in a more dovish direction, an outcome that would put downward pressure on yields and, by extension, the U.S. dollar. Any NFP print below 100,000 is likely to produce this response. USD/JPY rallied off support on Tuesday but fell short of recapturing its 200-day simple moving average. If the pair stays below this indicator for too long, sellers could reload and make a comeback, setting the stage for a drop below 140.95, but further losses could be in store on a push below this threshold, with the next area of interest at 139.85. On the other hand, if the bulls manage to propel the exchange rate above the 200-day SMA around 143.00, we could see a rally towards 144.80. Surmounting this obstacle may be difficult, but a successful push above it could establish favorable conditions for an upward move toward the 146.00 handle. Sustained strength might embolden the bulls to aim for 147.20. However, the greenback was unable to maintain its upward momentum for long. Shortly after setting a new 2023 high in early October, DXY shifted lower, undercut by the sharp downward correction in real and nominal yields following benign inflation readings. With inflationary forces downshifting, markets began to price in aggressive rate cuts over the next few years in an attempt to front-run the FOMC next easing cycle. The U.S. central bank initially resisted the pressure to pivot, but relented at its December meeting, when it indicated that "talk" of cutting borrowing costs had already begun. The Fed’s pivot accelerated the pullback in yields, sending the 2-year note below 4.40 %, a significant retracement from the cycle high of 5.25%. Simultaneously, the 10-year note plunged beneath the 4.0% threshold, when weeks earlier it was threatening to breach the psychological 5.0% level. In this context, the U.S. dollar index plummeted, hitting its weakest point since August. The Fed’s unexpected dovish pivot is a clear signal that officials want to shift policy in time to engineer a soft landing; in other words, they are prioritizing growth over inflation. This bias won’t change overnight, but will likely consolidate further in the near term, so the path of least resistance remains lower for both bond yields and the U.S. dollar, at least for the first couple of months of 2024. Navigational winds, however, could shift in favor of the greenback by the end of the first quarter, when additional data will become available for a more complete assessment of the macroeconomic picture. The significant relaxation of financial conditions observed in November and December, which ignited a powerful surge in stocks, is likely to amplify the wealth effect heading into the new year, helping sustain sturdy household consumption—the key driver of GDP. In this context, the prospect of an economic upswing in the medium term should not be completely ruled out. Any reacceleration in growth should boost employment gains and reinforce labor market tightness, putting upward pressure on wages. In this environment, inflation could settle well above the 2.0% target while staying skewed to the upside, preventing the Federal Reserve from pursuing a forceful easing campaign. Although there is a heightened sense of optimism regarding the U.S. inflation outlook following encouraging CPI and Core PCE reports in the latter part of 2023, it is premature to declare victory. Any pause in progress or an upward reversal of the underlying trend in consumer prices next year could be cataclysmic for sentiment, prompting a hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations.
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
6
NZDJPY to continue in the downward move?NZDJPY - 24h expiry The correction higher is assessed as being complete. Price action has continued to trend strongly higher and has stalled at the previous resistance near 91.15. We expect a reversal in this move. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels. A move through 90.90 will confirm the bearish momentum. The measured move target is 90.50. We look to Sell at 91.15 (stop at 91.40) Our profit targets will be 90.45 and 90.30 Resistance: 91.00 / 91.15 / 91.35 Support: 90.90 / 90.75 / 90.50 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Short
by OANDA
GBPJPY: Head and Shoulders formed. Sell signal.GBPJPY is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 50.345, MACD = 0.240, ADX = 29.640) as the recent bullish run came to an end on the HH trendline. For now the 1D MA50 held but the peak pattern formed is a Head and Shoulders. The 1D MACD is on a Bearish Cross, so the short signal is complete. Our target is the S1 level, potentially a contact with the 1D MA200 (TP = 185.500). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
2
Currency most likely to rebound against USD next week? Next week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision possibly just got a lot more interesting. Last night we got PPI data. In February, the producer price index, a key gauge of wholesale inflation, surged by 0.6%, surpassing expectations by more than double. The big question now is whether traders will reassess their expectations for the timing of a Fed rate cut. Currently, the market is pricing in less than a 15% chance of a rate cut in May and a 60% likelihood in June. This PPI report marks the final significant economic data released before the Federal Reserve's forthcoming policy meeting scheduled for March 19-20. The USD dollar knocked back all its pairs after the PPI announcement. But which pairs are likely to stage a comeback? The Japanese yen is possibly one of the best prospects in this regard. Traders will be looking for serious talk on Monday about the Bank of Japan ending it decades of extremely low-interest rates (or God-forbid an actual rate hike). The BoJ's Interest Rate Decision is slated for 11 pm on Monday. Next week, we will also see the release of inflation data from Canada and the UK, adding potential volatility to USDCAD and GBPUSD pairs.
by BlackBull_Markets
1
AUDJPY ANALYSISHello traders here is an analysis of AUDJPY for the coming weeks, what I have noticed in this market is that the price formed a rising wedge pattern that signals a bullish move but now after giving it some time and thoughts the price can go either way because you can see that it has been creating support and resistance and you can see it respect those zone so now I will wait for the price to break one of the zones then retest it then I will look for the opportunities that the market will present to me. What's your take on this one?
by dlaminisya
AUD/JPY Opportunity? BOJ and RBA announce decisions together Is the AUD/JPY the trade to make at the beginning of the coming week? Both the BoJ and the RBA are delivering their latest interest rate decisions on Monday morning, 30 minutes from each other. The Bank of Japan is up first, at 11:00 pm on Monday (US time UTC –4). The Reserve Bank of Australia follow at 11:30 pm. What's expected from each bank? According to sources quoted by Reuters, the Bank of Japan is leaning toward exiting negative rates this month. This is something that would really be a huge shock to the market. It would be the year's story, but do most traders believe this is possible, or is April the more likely timeline? Even a hint of an April rate hike could be a huge event in the market. From the RBA, traders might be looking for a rate cut, but won't likely get it. An argument on the side of a rate cut involves the RBA getting nervous about what the Wall Street Journal calls a “Deepening Property Crisis of its Own Making”. Sarah Hunter, the Assistant Governor of the RBA, addressed the economic and inflation forecast during a panel discussion at the AFR Business Summit on Tuesday, stating that “Households are clearly struggling at present.”
by BlackBull_Markets
2
GBPCAD: Strong start for GBP fading out?GBP has been the strongest performing currency so far this year - I keep asking myself why?? Country in a recession Stagnant economy Limp Central Bank With today's unemployment reading I'm expecting this to be the start of bearish involvement in sterling, I'm starting with this pair. Think oil has dropped a lot and could be ready to bounce up which is good for CAD. Seem to have broken the ascending trendline and retesting it now, failure to break back in will signify a change in direction. My first target is 1.708, around the MA50 (daily) and clear support.
Short
by Finchcliffe