How to Top-Fish S&R ZonesHello dear Forex friends, I just had this example with Alex from our Slack group, where he had posted the following for the German TradingView:
So he clearly bet on the previous S&R zone on the Daily at 110 psychological and being overextended on the Hourly.
The problem was though, that our S&R range was not clear, and esp. the 110,5 was even stronger as resistance:
So, did we see any patterns or information regarding trend-reversal , other than the S&R zone?
=> Nope, not at all. We only saw a very healthy Bull Flag on the Hourly when we zoomed in, which saw a very nice continuation breakout. Only with the arrival at the key resistance at 110,5, we finally saw a reaction from the bears, smashing down the price.
Conclusion: Either a) we would've had to to put our stop loss way above the top-fishing entry, basically above 110,5, which made no sense from a R:R perspective. Or b) we would've had to play with a very narrow stop-loss, basically like Alex did at 110, which was good. And/or c), wait for the 110,5 psychological for (re-) entry. => Because eventually we where right on the direction . Either way we should be in profit now or exited with a small loss.
Now what?
As we have arrived at the important previous S&R zone again at 109,5, a reaction from the bulls would be expected here up to 110 or little bit lower.
I hope you had some value, and if you want to be able to read the chart like this, and esp. set up a trading plan with statistics, let me know! ;) I wish you a great trading.
Edgy is providing online mentorship & trading metrics only. We are not a financial advisor, nor do we hold any formal qualifications in this area. You're trading at your own risk. No matter what you do, please set your stop loss. Please be aware, that you can lose all your money on the online exchanges.
Jpy
Wait for the Easy Set-ups and the purpose of Trading I often have traders ask me, how can I get alot of trades? And my response is that is the wrong question, the purpose of trading is to make Money, Period. It is, imho, to make as much money as you can in as few trades and in as little of time as possible. Although I have several methods of trading, the SS MA method, shown here is my absolute favorite. It has an 87% success rate with a healthy 3-1 RRR.
That said, I often ask those same traders "If you could consistently make 6-12% per week but could only take 2 trades, would you do it?" The answers are surprising as again, imho, anybody that says anything but yes really needs to rethink why they are trading. You should not be trading for the excitement, you should not be trading just to hit buttons. You should be trading so you can sit on a beach with the cocktail of your choice in hand.
to that end, I would implore you to come up with your best trading methodology and trade only that. As I have prominently posted between my monitors, as a reminder to myself "Wait for the easy set-ups and don't do anything stupid in the mean time" :)
What on earth happened with the Yen?Loads of /JPY pairs were affected on Thursday and Friday. There's hardly anything I can find on this in mainstream media. It's either the Yen went south or 'everybody' else decided to power up their respective other currencies.
I don't know what exactly happened. If anybody else knows do share with the community.
Elliott Wave & Intermarket Analysis For DOW JONES And AUDJPYHello traders! Today we will talk about positive correlation between stocks and xxx/jpy cross pairs, while we are in RISK ON sentiment.
Well, as you know, stocks are in uptrend and there can be room for more upside once a bigger correction fully unfolds. At the same time, xxx/jpy pairs are usually in positive correlation with stocks that can be clearly seen in the first chart above!
The best examples at this stage are Dow Jones and AUDJPY, where we see a potential bullish triangle in progress which may take some time, because we still see an unifinished five-leg A-B-C-D-E sideways movement. Currently we are observing a three-wave (A)-(B)-(C) rally to the upper side of a triangle range for wave D, from where we may see another sell-off for wave E and once a wave E completes, this is when a big triangle can be finished that can push the price back to highs!
These triangles are valid while price keeps trading above blue wave A swing low and bullish confirmed can be only above blue wave B swing high! That said, we are patiently waiting to see if the triangle will unfold as we wish!
Trade well!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
EURJPY Day Trade *LEARN TO DAY TRADE FX CURRENCIES*Here is another example of how to day trade FX currencies using a simple combination of Daily Pivot Points , 2x EMA's and the trendline tool on TradingView.
The first entry is based on the bullish trendline being broken and a retested. A lower low was made with the break of the TL and therefore this retest was a new lower high signalling a trend reversal. Price also rejected the daily pivot level and the 15 minute 50EMA. Because this is a fresh trend reversal, the 200 and 50 EMA's were not aligned but that is quite often the case with this style of entry.
Stop Loss is always placed 10 pips above the current high.
Target 1 is always the daily S1 level. If price manages to break through here with some momentum then it is highly likely that it will reach the daily S2 or even S3 levels. If you hold the trade to these levels then your R:R ratio will be increased dramatically.
The second trade opportunity came a day later. This entry is again based off of price rejecting the daily pivot level but it had done this 3 times in the same day so it is safe to assume that the Pivot level is acting as a strong resistance. The 50 and 200 EMA's were aligned and confirming a bearish trend (50 below 200) and the 15 minute timeframe chart had made a flag continuation pattern.
Stop Loss is always placed 10 pips above the current high.
Target 1 is always the daily S1 level. If price manages to break through here with some momentum then it is highly likely that it will reach the daily S2 or even S3 levels. If you hold the trade to these levels then your R:R ratio will be increased dramatically.
forexTrdr Sunday Setups: USDJPY WHERE THEM BULLS AT??Hi all and welcome to our Sunday Setups a new technical analysis piece where we are looking to showcase our work and highlight our 20 years of professional trading experience at the worlds best Investment Banks.
Our aim is to keep analysis simple so that anyone can follow and learn from our work and hopefully our past performance highlights why we are different.
Interested in finding out more? Head over to our profile page and please give us a follow
Please comment and leave feedback- we will be bringing our analysis via video soon
Where those bulls at on USDJPY? Thursdays failure to breach or even reach the 5th of Marchs high at point B (112.13) suggests Bullishness is fading and we are seeing the start of a descending triangle. Add in a strong technical that we are not going to discuss here we are looking for a test of the green support line from January lows and potential move down to the lower purple resistance level around 110.3. Key here is a breach and hold below the Jan support level. If we bounce and are subsequently able to breach 112.13 then bullish mode re-engages and we test the .786 fibonacci level from October high (112.3 area blue line).
Week Ahead
Sunday 17th March:
Japanese import/export and trade balance data - very low impact
Monday 18th March:
Japanese industrial production data - medium impact
Tuesday 19th March:
BoJ policy meetings - potential for high impact
US Factory Orders & Durable goods - low impact
Wednesday 20th March:
Fed Meeting - potential for high impact
Thursday 21st March:
Japanese Inflation data - medium impact
Friday 22nd March:
Japanese PMI - medium impact
Trend :
Ascending trend line supporting market since Jan low.
Month to date showing lower highs
Tech levels:
Major keys to upside:
112.13 point B and 5th of March high that failed to breach last week
112.35 area- Fibonacci support from October high
Major keys to downside:
111.24 area January support line
110.88 point C on chart
Learn how to fish Support orange arrows.
Resistance purple arrows.
Who says you cant see trade setups just using zones and levels? It looks pretty simple to me, You can see how strongly this zone is respected from where price has entered our zone and then bounced ( marked by arrows )
Now it seems pretty clear to us where price is heading and we haven't got any indicators on our charts at all, just clean fresh charts.... quick someone call the FOREX POLICE because we must be committing a crime as everywhere we look we see stupid charts that look like a 5 year old has drawn on them... These charts may work for the person using them but they are also used to try and confuse people into thinking that trading is hard so they will pay for help from this person.
Yes we sell high quality signals, but honestly we would rather people learnt to trade themselves, this is why we don't over complicate charts... YOU CAN GIVE A HUNGRY MAN A FISH TO CURE HIS HUNGER FOR A FEW HOURS... OR YOU CAN TEACH HIM HOW TO FISH SO HE CAN EAT FOR THE REST OF HIS LIFE. We prefer to show people how to fish if you get my drift ;)
AUDJPY - SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONE ANALYSISHi traders.
Whenever you are looking at a technical level, always ask yourself the following:
- Am I buying at a potential bargain/wholesale/discount price? (supply or demand zones)
- Why is there more likely to be more supply/demand orders at that area? (new traders entering/traders taking profit)
- What are the underlying fundamental/sentiment drivers that should push price in my favour? (interest rates, business cycle, risk on/risk off)
If all 3 are in your favour, take the trade, manage your risk and go for more than you've risked.
Always remember this trade is only 1 trade in the next thousand you're going to take.
Process over outcome!
EURJPY - SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONE ANALYSISHi traders.
Whenever you are looking at a technical level, always ask yourself the following:
- Am I buying at a potential bargain/wholesale/discount price? (supply or demand zones)
- Why is there more likely to be more supply/demand orders at that area? (new traders entering/traders taking profit)
- What are the underlying fundamental/sentiment drivers that should push price in my favour? (interest rates, business cycle, risk on/risk off)
If all 3 are in your favour, take the trade, manage your risk and go for more than you've risked.
Always remember this trade is only 1 trade in the next thousand you're going to take.
Process over outcome!
A Lesson On Reading Risk Profiles (Must Watch)In the following video, Ivan Delgado, Head of Market Research at Global Prime, walks us through the different scenarios that can exist when trading risk.
Ivan simplifies the reading of the environment as a trader one can encounter by combining the price behavior of the SP500, US 30-yr bond yield, US Dollar index, and to a lesser extent, Gold, as it's become more a function of DXY performance.
A must watch for all forex traders, especially those trading risk-sensitive crosses such as JPY, CHF.
Currency StrengthCurrently, USD benefits from two forces that build up sentiment worth mentioning, the Peace Summit and the FED meeting. However, powers are already fainting.
Buying power of both currencies is exceeding selling power, however in USDJPY (UJ) there can only be one the strongest. So here it may look JPY is being sold mainly but it's merely aiming down because in the UJ relation the balance of buying against selling is in favor of the USD.
Direction of the individual currencies steer the pair of the two. In this case of chart layout, divergence sends USDJPY up and convergence USDJPY down.
Mentality and Sticking to Your PlanDISCLAIMER: Hi everyone, I'm new to trading and this is just a log book for me on applying everything that I have learned and continue to learn as I go along. That being said, I do not advise you to base your trading on these "ideas".
Last week I published a small "idea" for a quick scalp on the CADJPY. I noticed an uptrend that I didnt expect to go past a certain Resistance level from a few months back. I set my Take-Profits and Stop-Losses at fare prices, and hit my Take-Profit. I was happy with my trade but, being the amateur that I still am, I not only left money on the table but I didn't stick to my plan. I looked for what would have been another opening, which turned out to be a correction that hit my stop loss as soon as the market opened (thanks to a huge gap). Not only did I loose the profit from my previous trade, but the price rose up and came back to where I wanted it to be all along.
I have yet to lean how to keep emotions out, and set myself into the right mentality. But I do know that it is something that we all must learn to be succesful traders.
Correlation Trading - How to Trade Forex With Little to No Risk!Tonight we did a live stream on YouTube offering an in-depth explanation of correlation trading. You can watch the stream back in its entirety here www.youtube.com
Below will be a written explanation of correlation trading utilizing the AUDJPY vs. NZDJPY as the example:
Correlation trading is an amazing way to add diversification to your trading portfolio and in your trade plan. You can continue your trading plan and strategy but take advantage of correlation trading opportunities as they arise to increase your ability to profit from the forex market. In correlation trading the objective is to find currency pairs that are highly correlated, meaning that when one pair moves in any given direction the other pair also moves in that same direction. A great example of this would be the AUDJPY vs. the NZDJPY. Over the past year the correlation between the two pairs has been very positive, 92% of the time over the past year the two pairs have been moving in sync with one another. This correlation can be confirmed by using the Oanda correlation chart:
Once you have confirmed that you are looking at two pairs that are highly correlated to one another, you will want to then look into the charts and compare the price action over the past year. TradingView makes this very convenient with the ability to overlay charts. When we overlay the NZDJPY chart on the AUDJPY chart (candlesticks=AUDJPY, bars=NZDJPY) we can clearly see the times of the year when the two pairs were moving very much in sync and the times where the correlation cracked a bit and the two pairs moved oddly in opposing directions.
It is during these times when the correlation cracks that provides us with the immensely profitable and essentially risk free trading opportunities. If you notice on the chart throughout the past year you will see highlighted in yellow boxes all of the times when the correlation has cracked and a gap has formed. We can look at these moments and estimate the average maximum gap in correlation and use this information to gauge when to take a correlation trade on this pair.
You will notice every time the correlation has cracked and a gap in price action has formed, price inevitably moved back in correlation narrowing and even closing the gap You will also notice if you look back at the widest portion of the gap from every time there was a crack in correlation that it has been roughly anywhere between 400-500 pips . If we look at the second to most recent gap in correlation that we have labeled on the chart you will notice that at its widest point the gap in price was roughly 600 pips; the high being at 85.500 and the low being at 80.700. If we were watching this occur as it was happening and we noticed the gap in correlation approaching 400 pips and then 500 pips and then 600 pips, forming the widest gap in correlation all year, we could then look to take a correlation trade between these pairs.
In this given example around 3/11/16 we would look to take equal positions of long NZDJPY and short AUDJPY banking on the fact that the gap in correlation should statistically, with 92% likelihood, narrow and potentially even close completely so that the two pairs are moving back in correlation with one another. You will see that if we did this we covered on 3/30/16 we would have netted ourselves a fruitful profit of 300 pips. Our short position in AUDJPY would have been down about 20 pips or so but our long in NZDJPY would have been up about 340 pips.
This profit came with little to no direction risk because as one position goes against you the other statistically should go in your favor and if you are not netting a profit at any given moment your loss should be simnifically reduced as compared to what it would be if you were only holding the losing position.
USD/JPY - 2618 Trade Explained USD/JPY - H1 - 2618 Trade Explained
Having had a double top and now approaching a retracement back into the 61.8% Fib level, we can now look for reasons to short the USD.
Unlike patterns we can't just place BUY or SELL orders in advanced.
Once we have completed the rules of engagement below, we are looking for confluence within a certain area that all coincide.
This in the long term will give us a better success rate.
Rules Of Engagement 2618
- Double Top
- Break below Neckline / Support
- 0.618% Fibonacci retracement
- Stop loss above double top
- Target 1 at 38.2% Fibonacci
- Target 2 at 61.8% Fibonacci
Good luck.