USD/JPY 1H AnalysisThe pair is currently in a downtrend, and we’re approaching a small support zone. If this level breaks, there’s a high probability the price will move down to the next key support zone (green).
✅ What I’m watching for:
A clean breakout below the small support zone, with confirmation from increased selling volume or bearish candlestick patterns.
🚨 Plan:
If the breakout is confirmed, the next target is the green support zone. Stay cautious and manage your risk carefully!
👉 Follow me for more updates and trade ideas!
Jpy
USDJPY lowered due to the retreating dollar
Increasing fatigue from strong dollar performance and reduced safe-haven demand due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have halted the dollar's ascent. The Fed's indication of a potential end to quantitative tightening(QT) due to worries about declining market liquidity also limited the dollar's gains. JP Morgan forecasts that the Fed might conclude the entire QT in the coming months.
Meanwhile, Japan's October services inflation stood near 3%, increasing the likelihood of the BoJ's interest rate hikes. Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted ongoing wage-led inflation, supporting the central bank's capacity to raise rates.
After breaking below the ascending channel’s lower bound, USDJPY fell to 152.80. EMA21 has death-crossed EMA78, indicating a shift to bearish momentum. If USDJPY breaks below the support at 152.70, the price may fall further to 150.00. Conversely, if USDJPY reenters within the channel and rises above both EMAs, the price could gain upward momentum toward 156.70.
Bearish drop?USD/JPY has reacted off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 153.766
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 154.91
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 152.28
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
USDJPY GAME PLAN WEEK 48After analyzing the forex market's COT report released last Friday, I have aligned my bias with the macroeconomic reports scheduled for this week. There are fewer key events compared to last week, but I am confident that the ones we do have are worth paying attention to.
Now, let me explain why I consider USD/JPY to be a good long trade. First of all, the COT data revealed increased interest in a stronger dollar, further strengthening the already solid bullish sentiment. At the same time, all other currencies either showed increased long interest or reduced short interest—except for JPY.
I avoid trading pairs that are on the same side of the market, as I aim to find as much friction as possible to create the volatility that we, as traders, thrive on. However, this alone is not enough. I will also follow the key reports and events this week, including:
CB Consumer Confidence
Preliminary GDP (q/q)
Unemployment Claims
Core PCE Price Index (m/m)
FOMC Meeting Minutes
Keep in mind that the U.S. market is closed on Thursday.
I won’t wait for every individual release before taking action but will trade accordingly as opportunities arise. For instance, I plan to go long after the CB Consumer Confidence report, but not blindly—I will still base my entries on technical levels. However, the actual numbers in the reports will matter less.
The reality is that sometimes a number that misleads the majority, combined with a strong underlying bias, can create a divergence with immense force behind it.
I will provide updates as the week progresses. Trades might be held for two days or even throughout the entire week, depending on market conditions.
Bullish reversal off 61.8% Fibonacci support?CAD/JPY is reacting off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance which has been identified as an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 109.05
1st Support: 107.77
1st Resistance: 110.41
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish drop?AUD/JPY is rising towards the pivot which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 100.20
1st Support: 99.09
1st Resistance: 100.86
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish drop?NZD/JPY is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support which has been identified as an overlap support.
Pivot: 90.05
1st Support: 88.75
1st Resistance: 91.15
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish bounce off pullback support?GBP/JPY is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension and the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 191.86
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension and the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Stop loss: 190.05
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 194.71
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Risk could plunge in 2025 if AUD/JPY clues are correctAUD/JPY is a classic barometer of risk. So I find it quite interesting to see that price action clues on the monthly chart are not too dissimilar to what we saw ahead of the GFC high in 2007. And if AUD/JPY plunges, the chances are it means global markets will also be in turmoil.
MS.
EURJPY to continue in the downward move?EURJPY - 24h expiry
Buying pressure from 159.87 resulted in prices rejecting the dip.
The current move higher is expected to continue.
Short term bias has turned negative.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 162.85 level.
We look to Sell at 162.85 (stop at 164.05)
Our profit targets will be 159.85 and 154.40
Resistance: 162.45 / 164.90 / 167.40
Support: 159.40 / 154.40 / 151.40
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Potential bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot, which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 151.62
1st Support: 149.23
1st Resistance: 157.75
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USD/JPY – Key Green Zone on 1H Time FrameIf the price returns to this green zone, buyers could reenter, pushing the price higher.
Strategy:
For long entries, watch for confirmation of a rebound in this zone.
If you are currently short, this could be a good area to reduce your position as buyers may step back in.
Stay cautious and manage your risk accordingly!
Bullish rise off pullback support?GBP/JPY has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 193.92
1st Support: 192.81
1st Resistance: 195.74
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 22, 2024 USDJPYHigher market sentiment and rising US bond yields are limiting the rise of the low-yielding yen.
The US Dollar is holding near its highest level in the last year and is providing support to the USD/JPY pair.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracted buying for the second day in a row following the release of slightly better-than-expected Japanese consumer inflation data. This came amid statements released on Thursday by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, which kept expectations of an interest rate hike in December. In addition, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's 39 trillion yen economic stimulus package boosts the Yen and puts some pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
Nevertheless, the prevailing risk-on and higher US Treasury yields keep traders from aggressive bullish bets on the low-yielding Yen. Investors remain concerned that U.S. President Donald Trump's policies could lead to renewed inflation and force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to slowly cut interest rates. This has been a key factor in the recent rise in US bond yields, which has kept the US Dollar (USD) near yearly highs and provided support to the USD/JPY pair.
Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 154.00, trading mainly with Buy orders.
Bearish drop?USD/JPY is rising towards the pivot which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop to the 1st support which act as an overlap support.
Pivot: 154.91
1st Support: 153.46
1st Resistance: 155.89
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURJPY to find buyers at current swing low?EURJPY - 24h expiry
We are trading at oversold extremes.
This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
The hourly chart technicals suggests further downside before the uptrend returns.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher.
Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
We look to Buy at 162.20 (stop at 161.18)
Our profit targets will be 164.70 and 164.95
Resistance: 164.90 / 167.40 / 170.90
Support: 162.45 / 159.40 / 154.40
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
USDJPY - The weakness of the yen will stop?!The USDJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. In case of correction due to the release of economic data this week, we can see demand zone and buy within that range with appropriate risk reward. Breaking the downtrend line and the specified resistance range will pave the way for the currency pair to rise to the supply zone. We will sell currency pairs in that range.
Bank of Japan (BOJ) to Release Review of Monetary Policy Tools
According to Reuters, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is set to release the findings of a comprehensive review next month, evaluating the advantages and drawbacks of various unconventional monetary policy tools employed over the past 25 years to combat deflation. This review is seen as a symbolic step towards ending BOJ’s era of massive stimulus measures.
The report will include findings and surveys that justify BOJ’s plan to gradually normalize its monetary policies. The review’s results are expected to be published after the final BOJ policy meeting of the year, scheduled for December 18–19, and may include a potential rate hike from the current level of 0.25%.
Japan’s ruling coalition, comprising the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, has reached an agreement with the opposition Democratic Party for the People (DPP) on an economic stimulus package. The package includes cash handouts for low-income households, subsidies to assist with utility bill payments, and additional investments in artificial intelligence and semiconductors.
The three parties have agreed to raise the income tax threshold and continue discussions on reducing gasoline taxes. This agreement requires legislative revisions to be addressed during next year’s parliamentary session. Following the ruling coalition’s loss of its majority in the lower house, DPP’s support has become crucial for advancing the package. However, some economists have expressed skepticism about the package’s limited impact on boosting consumer spending.
BOJ Chief Kazuo Ueda’s Remarks:
Kazuo Ueda, the BOJ Governor, stressed the need for the government to monitor medium-term financial sustainability. He stated that the policies of the new U.S. administration will be closely examined and integrated into Japan’s economic outlook as a key priority.Ueda also highlighted the transformative impact of generative AI on the financial industry.
Massive Treasury Bond Sell-Off by Japan and China
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that Japan and China, two of the largest holders of U.S. government debt, sold significant amounts of U.S. Treasury bonds during the third quarter of this year. Japanese investors offloaded a record $61.9 billion worth of these bonds in the quarter ending September 30, while Chinese funds sold $51.3 billion in the same period, marking the second-largest volume recorded. These sell-offs occurred ahead of the U.S. presidential election and Donald Trump’s victory.
Potential bullish bounce off overlap support?GBP/JPY is currently on the pivot which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 195.67
1st Support: 194.09
1st Resistance: 198.19
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Could the price rise from here?USD/JPY is reacting off the pivot which acts as an overlap support and could rise to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 154.66
1st Support: 153.44
1st Resistance: 156.54
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Buy AUD/JPY Bullish ChannelThe AUD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bullish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 101.04, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 101.94
2nd Support – 102.54
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.