NZDJPY to find buyers at current swing low?NZDJPY - 24h expiry
The primary trend remains bullish.
The selloff is close to an exhaustion count on the daily chart.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Bespoke support is located at 90.50.
The hourly chart technicals suggests further downside before the uptrend returns.
We look to Buy at 90.50 (stop at 90.25)
Our profit targets will be 91.50 and 92.00
Resistance: 91.20 / 91.50 / 92.00
Support: 90.25 / 90.00 / 89.70
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The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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Jpy
EURJPY bottomed on the 1D MA50. +5.40% upside potential.The EURJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the September 16 Low. Yesterday it made a Higher Low on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and rebounded. This is identical to the post December 07 2023 Channel Up, which was also supported by its 1D MA50 until its very top (July 11 2024).
The 1D RSI sequences between the two fractals are also similar and even more importantly the Channel Up patterns appear to have a high degree of symmetry. So far the two Bullish Legs have risen by +5.40%.
As a result, we are expecting another +5.40% from yesterday's bottom, so our Target is just below it at 170.000.
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GBPJPY First 1D Golden Cross after 19 months. Strong BUY.The GBPJPY pair is forming today a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame, the first such pattern in exactly 19 months (April 21 2023). Naturally this is a huge bullish signal alone, as technically the Golden Cross calls for upside action. But more specifically for this pair's price action, it indicates the high probability of an immediate aggressive push as the current formation is very similar to the April 2023 one.
As you can see, both were trading within a Channel Up up to the moment of the Golden Cross, having started after a 1W MA100 (red trend-line) test. The 1D CCI trading on Higher Lows below -100.00 (oversold) is a confirmation that the price Channel Up breaks aggressively to the upside.
The previous Golden Cross pushed the price just above the 3.0 Fibonacci extension, to a +18.40% rise. Throughout this time, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) was supporting the uptrend.
As a result, we turn long now on GBPJPY, targeting 215.000 (just above the 3.0 Fib extension).
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USDJPY Trade IdeaUSD is in bullish , which means all other weak currencies should be bearish.
As you can see in the chart of FX:USDJPY weekly open is holding as a support. once it breaks this support and holds it as a resistance, I will short it with this confirmation, and put stop loss at previous candle high. And tp would be current year mid.
I will keep you updated with all my trades.
Could the price reverse from here?NZD/JPY is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Entry: 91.99
1st Support: 91.10
1st Resistance: 92.44
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
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Bearish reversal?NZD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 92.00
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 92.46
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 91.12
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Fundamental Market Analysis for November 19, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) rose against its US counterpart during Tuesday's Asian session, although it lacked bullish confidence amid uncertainty over the timing of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) next interest rate hike. In addition to this, risk-on sentiment reflected in the overall positive tone in the equity markets may be contributing to the safe-haven yen's decline.
That said, geopolitical risks and lower US Treasury yields could prevent a significant downside for the low-yielding yen. In addition, speculation that Japanese authorities may intervene to support the national currency may deter bears from aggressively betting on the yen. The focus will now shift to Japan's consumer inflation data and global PMIs due out later this week.
Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said Tuesday that “it is crucial to raise wages for all generations with an economic package.”
He also noted that he is “aiming for the cabinet to approve the economic package soon.”
At the time of writing the analysis, the USD/JPY pair is consolidating on the latest round of declines just above the 154.10 level, having lost 0.36% on the day.
Trade recommendation: Trade mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Sell USD/JPY Bearish FlagThe USD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 154.42, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 153.18
2nd Support – 152.55
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
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Pullback resistance ahead?NZD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 91.37
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 92.38
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 90.63
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EUR/JPY Bearish Setup: Supply Zone Rejects, New Lows in Sight!After a significant bearish move, price is consolidating and appears to be respecting the supply zone, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend.
Support Levels:
Immediate target support at 162.263.
Extended target at 160.207.
A potential bearish scenario with price rejecting the supply zone, targeting the mentioned support levels.
Take Profit (TP):
TP1: 162.263 (first support level).
TP2: 160.207 (extended support level).
GBPJPY SELL IDEAThis is just my idea, if you're just starting out its important for you to stick with your own analyst. I don't care if your setup is dead wrong... Learn from it, adjust and try again.
I'm waiting for a breakout to the downside to enter again.
I have 2 targets inmind:
195.886 and 197.000
Once they get reach, I'll look for breakouts to the downside.
I'm looking at 189.858 for my TP .
Previous entry: 199.500 to 195.886.
Bearish drop?USD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that is slightly above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 154.69
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 155.23
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 153.90
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EURJPY | MarketoutlookThe policy divergence between the US Fed and SNB supports the pair at lower levels.
Jobless claims dropped to 227,000 for the week ending October 19, down from 242,000 the week before, suggesting some stability in the labor market. The four-week moving average rose by 6,750, reaching 231,000, which indicates that jobless claims are still showing fluctuations despite the recent decline.
The S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI increased slightly to 47.8 in October, up from 47.3 in September. However, this still shows that manufacturing activity is contracting for the fourth month in a row. On the other hand, the Flash Services PMI rose to 51.5, indicating modest growth in the services sector, which is important since it makes up a large part of the U.S. economy.
USD/JPY: USD Faces Correction Ahead of Key Retail Sales DataThe Japanese Yen has strengthened as the US Dollar begins to correct downward in anticipation of upcoming Retail Sales data. Japan's GDP annualized growth for the third quarter was reported at 0.9%, a notable decline from the 2.2% growth seen in the second quarter. In response to currency market volatility, Japan’s Finance Minister Kato emphasized his commitment to taking necessary measures to counter excessive fluctuations in foreign exchange rates.
From a technical analysis perspective, the current price indicates a rebound in an area where multiple supply zones converge, suggesting the potential for a pullback of the USD against the JPY. Retail traders continue to show a bullish stance towards the US Dollar, while other market participants appear uncertain or bearish in their outlook.
Given the significant rally in the USD that followed the Trump election victory, we are observing for a possible correction. As these dynamics play out, attention to price patterns and broader economic indicators will be essential for traders navigating this market environment.
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USD/JPY is still in its upward trendBy examining the trend in the one-hour time frame, USD/JPY has an important support range in the range of 153.38-154.02.
In general, this scenario is reinforced that USD/JPY can increase in price up to the resistance of the channel ceiling in the range of 158.08, provided that there is no closing of the four-hour candle time below the important support interval in the range of 153.38-154.02.
USDJPY: Buy opportunity inside the 1H MA200 and 4H MA100.USDJPY is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.138, MACD = 1.880, ADX = 50.518) which perfectly explains the Channel Up it's been trading in since October 8th. At the moment the price is on an aggressive bearish wave, which got accelerated today as it was rejected on the 1H MA50. The result is so far a direct hit on the 1H MA200 for the first time since Nov 10th. The last two HL were on the 4H MA100 however, so there is still some more room to fall but even on the current level the reward largely outweighs the risk. We are just over the 0.5 Fibonacci level afterall, which is where the November 5th low was formed. We're long, aiming for a +3.20% rise (TP = 158.500).
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GBPJPY - Will the pound continue to weaken?The GBPJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. If the correction continues to the support range, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. Breaking the resistance range will pave the way for this currency pair to continue its rise.
Pension Reforms in the UK
• Consolidation of Local Government Pension Schemes:
Rachel Reeves, the UK Treasury Secretary, aims to merge local government pension schemes into larger funds (megafunds). This initiative involves pooling the assets of 86 local government pension schemes into a large fund managed by professional investment managers.
• Objective: To increase investment in long-term, high-risk assets, reduce management costs, and strengthen investment in infrastructure and local areas.
• Further Reforms: In addition, Reeves plans to make changes to financial arbitration services and the combined stock market, marking “the most significant pension reforms in decades.”
Inflation Outlook and Interest Rates in the UK
• Comments from Bank of England Member, Mann:
Bank of England member, Mann, warned that substantial volatility in macroeconomic indicators will be seen in the coming years. He suggests that inflation may remain high for an extended period, necessitating a higher neutral rate. Additionally, he noted that lower interest rates compared to high inflation would put more pressure on investments.
Japan’s Support Package and Economic Stimulus
• Budget and Household Support:
The Japanese government has planned a supplementary budget of 13.5 trillion yen (87 billion USD) to fund an economic stimulus package. This budget includes a payment of 30,000 yen to low-income households and 20,000 yen per child in households with children.
• Energy Subsidies: The government will also reintroduce electricity and gas subsidies from January for three months to help households cope with rising fuel and service costs.
Financial Risks and Supervision by the Bank of Japan
• Concerns About Non-Bank Financial Institutions:
The Bank of Japan’s Deputy Governor, Uchida, warned that increased connections between non-bank financial institutions and banks could pose risks to the entire financial system. He emphasized that non-bank institutions handle almost half of global financial intermediation, which requires close attention.
Actions for Stability in Japan’s Currency Market
• Currency Market Intervention:
Japan’s Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, stated that appropriate measures will be taken to control severe and one-sided fluctuations in the currency market if necessary. He stressed the importance of sustainable exchange rate movements in line with fundamental principles.
Buy NZD/JPY Descending Triangle The NZD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 91.65
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 92.11
2nd Resistance – 92.34
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
AUD/JPY Approaching Key Breakdown: Will the Bulls Hold the Line?AUD/JPY is trading within a converging wedge pattern, showing a potential downside setup. The price is approaching a crucial support level marked by the red ascending trendline. This support has held multiple times in recent sessions, but any break below it could open the way for further losses.
The pair is also testing resistance at the upper boundary of the wedge. A rejection from this area may push prices downward towards the ascending trendline, where a break could lead to a deeper fall, targeting the blue horizontal support near 100.000.
If AUD/JPY breaks below 100.000, it could trigger a bearish continuation, suggesting a move toward the 99.510 level or lower. Conversely, if bulls defend the trendline, the price could attempt a reversal within the wedge, aiming for a retest of recent highs.
USDJPY Bullish Cross on 1W MACD will push it higher.The USDJPY pair is having an excellent bullish run since our September 25 buy signal (see chart below), which was right at the bottom of the 2-year Channel Up:
We're approaching our 161.800 long-term Target much faster than we expected but we've identified this time a short-term opportunity that can go along with the long-term one. We are past a 1W MACD Bullish Cross and when the previous Bullish Leg formed one on Aptil 14 2023, the price (which was already within a Channel Up) didn't stop the uptrend. On the contrary it extended it up until a little after a 1D Golden Cross was formed.
As a result we can target additionally 160.000 within a 2-month time-frame.
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