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AUDJPY Fall? And potential Stock Market correction?Potential short idea on AUDJPY Reasons for (potential) entry: - COT traders are buying JPY and selling AUD fairly aggressively - AUD cutting interest rates, JPY hiking interest rates - AUD could be under pressure due to reliance on China, who are facing economic uncertainty In the past, when COT traders have bought JPY as aggressively as this there's been a stock market correction after it. Not saying it's definitely going to happen again - but JPY is seen as a 'safe-haven' currency and it's usually bought up when investors are risk-off. Stocks have been on a crazy bull run for the last year, I wouldn't be too surprised if there was some sort of correction in it soon.
Short
by ciantrades
7
Nikkei index analysis. Swing trade signal!!!Hello everyone. i want share my idea about Nikkei index. First i want introduce what is that index. Nikkei (Nikkei 225 stock average) is a price-weighted index which composed of Japan top 225 companies which traded on the Tokyo stock exchange. This index was long time almost 2 years in bullish trend but Japan government decide to take care for yen and they are going to cut rates which will have effect at the index, i think hedge funds will take their profits soon and if it will not change trend we will get big correction which i think is perfect at the moment for catch it. if i have fundamental reason for that i will try to short it from my marked point which is at 40174, here i have resistance and at resistance we see fair value gap, if we will use Fibonacci addition it shows perfect entry point exact at resistance and 4h fair value gap. I am going to open here swing trade, my entry point will be 40174, stop loss at 40749 and take profit who knows? i will follow price action if i will be right. if trend will not change i am waiting only short signal from that index i think it will be correction an the correction need to be huge. Always make your own research!!! manage your risk!!!
SPREADEX:NIKKEIShort
by elmakacho
USD/JPY: Yen Strengthens Amid Policy ExpectationsThe Japanese Yen gains support from anticipated BoJ policy shifts, fostering a safer environment and limiting USD/JPY within lower USD demand. Investor focus on US economic data before FOMC minutes remains crucial. Technically, breaching the 200-day SMA signals a USD/JPY downtrend. Daily chart indicators suggest potential further losses. Any upward movement could prompt selling near 142.00, leading to short-term profit-taking around 142.40 and targeting the 200-day SMA at 143.00. Support lies at 141.00, guarding against declines toward recent lows near 140.25 and the psychological level of 140.00. A firm break below 141.00 may accelerate a decline towards 139.35, aiming for levels near 139.00, 138.75, and 138.00 (the July 28th low).
by Larissa-Trader
Japanese Yen's Caution Amid USD/JPY Trends and US PCE DataThe Japanese Yen continues to exhibit relative strength amid hawkish expectations from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Bets on a series of Fed interest rate cuts in 2024 are dampening the USD and weighing on USD/JPY. Bearish speculators are becoming cautious, eagerly awaiting the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index data later this Thursday for fresh market impetus. From a technical perspective, USD/JPY has shown potential for a recovery below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), signaling caution for trend-following traders. This indicates that daily chart oscillators are deeply entrenched in negative territory but still far from oversold levels. Conversely, this suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains downward, and any meaningful recovery attempts could be viewed as selling opportunities. Meanwhile, Wednesday saw the USD/JPY touch multi-month lows around the 146.65 region, seemingly defending immediate weakness. Below this level, USD/JPY could swiftly push the downside momentum towards the psychological 146.00 mark. On the flip side, the 147.30-147.35 region may act as an immediate barrier ahead of the high overnight volatility, around the 147.90 area and the 148.00 mark. Any further upward movement may attract new sellers and remains constrained near the strong horizontal support-turned-resistance level at 148.30. In summary, caution prevails in the face of the Japanese Yen's bullish trend, with the focus shifting to the US PCE data for potential market catalysts. Technical indicators suggest a bearish bias for USD/JPY, with key support and resistance levels influencing the near-term trajectory.
by Larissa-Trader
USD/JPY Hits Six-Week Low Near 148.50, Faces Key SupportThe USD/JPY pair remains under selling pressure for the fourth consecutive day, reaching its lowest point since October 4 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. However, the spot price has slightly rebounded in the past few hours and is trading around the 148.00 level. USD/JPY continues to trade near its lowest level in six weeks, extending losses to around 148.90 in the early European trading session on Monday. The key level of 148.50 emerges as immediate support, aligning with the Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% at 148.49. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 50 signals a bearish sentiment, potentially inspiring bearish moves towards the support zone around 146.50, followed by the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% at 146.37. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is positioned above the centerline, showing divergence below the signal line, often indicating a downward price trend. This configuration suggests that the short-term moving average (MACD line) is moving further away from the long-term moving average (signal line) in a downward direction. On the flip side, the psychological level at 150.00 may act as a significant barrier, corresponding with the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 150.34. A breakthrough above this level could support a USD/JPY rebound towards last week's high at 151.90.
by Gwen_Humuna
1
USD/JPY Extends Upside Momentum Beyond 151.00 Level The USD/JPY pair continues to trade positively for the sixth consecutive day during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The upward movement is supported by higher US Treasury bond yields and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The pair is currently hovering around the 151.70 mark, marking a 0.10% increase for the day. USD/JPY has sustained its winning streak, trading above 151.40 in early European trading on Friday. Unexpectedly hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell had a significant impact, boosting US Treasury bond yields and strengthening the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). However, the Japanese government may consider interventions to limit the upward momentum of the USD/JPY pair in response to these developments. Powell's statement at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) event on Thursday expressed concerns that the current policies may not be sufficient to curb inflation. This sentiment led to an increase in the US Dollar Index (DXY), fluctuating around 106.00, with the 10-year US Treasury bond yield at 4.62% at the time of writing. Despite strong tightening policies from major central banks, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains its accommodative stance. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated on Thursday that the central bank would cautiously approach exiting extremely loose monetary policies to prevent significant bond market disruptions. However, the Japanese Yen continues to face pressure as the plan to exit extremely loose policies may be delayed due to lower wage increases. Reasonable wage growth is considered a crucial factor for the Bank of Japan to contemplate an exit from prolonged loose monetary policies. Market participants closely monitor Fed's Logan speech and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November, seeking signals to identify trading opportunities in the USD/JPY pair.What do you think about this pair?
by Larissa-Trader
1
Ride the Wave of Yen Drop Against Dollar As you may already know, the Japanese Yen has been experiencing a significant drop against the US Dollar due to the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) strategic move of buying bonds to curb the rising yield. This development has created a highly favorable environment for traders looking to long USDJPY and capitalize on this exciting trend. The BOJ's proactive measures to slow down the rising yield have effectively weakened the Yen, creating an ideal scenario for traders seeking to profit from the currency pair's movement. This drop opens up a window of opportunity for those who are ready to take advantage of the situation and potentially reap substantial rewards. Now, you might be wondering, "How can I seize this opportunity and maximize my profits?" Well, the answer lies in considering a long position on USDJPY! By going long on this currency pair, you position yourself to benefit from the Yen's decline against the Dollar. This trade could potentially yield remarkable returns if timed correctly. So, what are you waiting for? Don't miss out on this thrilling chance to ride the wave of the Yen's drop against the Dollar! Take action now and consider opening a position to long USDJPY. With careful analysis, a well-executed strategy, and the right timing, you could be on your way to securing substantial profits. Remember, timing is crucial in the world of trading, and this opportunity might not last forever. Stay ahead of the curve and make the most of the current market conditions. Embrace the excitement, seize the moment, and let your trading skills shine! If you require any further information or assistance in making the most of this opportunity, please do not hesitate to reach out to our expert team. We are here to support you every step of the way. Wishing you an exhilarating trading experience and remarkable success!
Long
by bryandowningqln
BOJ under pressure to intervene yen weakness - Urgent Action Req Recent developments surrounding the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are under increasing pressure to intervene in the ongoing weakness of the yen. As we stay vigilant in our trading strategies, it is crucial that we pause and carefully consider the potential implications of such intervention. Therefore, I strongly recommend that each one of us exercise caution and reevaluate our positions before proceeding further. It is with prudence and foresight that we can navigate through these uncertain times and protect our interests. Let's take a moment to assess the situation and make informed decisions before resuming trading. Stay alert and trade wisely. Call to Action: As a responsible trader, I encourage you to pause your yen trading until further notice. Take this opportunity to reassess your positions, consult market experts, and stay informed about the latest developments regarding BoJ's potential intervention. By ensuring we are well-informed and cautious, we can mitigate potential risks and make more successful trading decisions. Together, let's prioritize protection and long-term gains by taking a step back and reflecting on our strategies.
by bryandowningqln
JPYX Daily Analysis - Will We Break to the Upside?JPYX has been in a descending wedge holding pattern since July of this year and has yet to successfully break out toward the upside. This analysis predicts a pullback from the bear trend up to the Daily 200EMA around 792.0 and if penetrated, to the 807.0 area. Key Points: 1. JPXY is in a descending wedge pattern which is a bullish signal 2. Several bull candles attempting to breakout 3. The bear candles are getting weaker as we consolidate downward 4. The Daily 200EMA target is aligned slightly below the wedge high 5. RSI has some room to move up I do not believe we are in a situation where JPXY will reverse at a macro level, the trend is still bear until we start putting in higher highs on the monthly candles above the Monthly 30EMA. In the short term, I would be careful betting against JPY on the Daily and Weekly given a pullback may be around the corner. As always, trade at your own risk, you are responsible for your trades. I hope this analysis was insightful and useful. Trade wisely and let us know what you think in the comment section below!
PEPPERSTONE:JPYXLong
by TraderEngineering
JPY - A Descending Wedge Screams BullJPY showed a quick bout of bull strength on Monday and Tuesday of last week only to fall back down to the bottom of the wedge. That Tuesday bull bar could be the first sign of a reversal. This week, we should be looking for another bounce off of the wedge to confirm a move to the upside. The first target is the 9EMA of the Monthly chart between 784.0 and 785.0, a brief pullback, then a breakthrough to the previous resistance at 807.0. If we fall through the wedge, be cautious that JPY will fall much further. JPY has been in a strong descension since March of this year and is showing signs of waning bears. Look for long opportunities at these levels for at least a small swing to the upside. Trade wisely and let us know what you think in the comment section below!
PEPPERSTONE:JPYXLong
by TraderEngineering
NZDJPY - Is The Bearish Run For The JPY Finally Over?Analysis: Bearish Confluences In a downwards trend Retest of a key level Fakeout of downwards trendline 1K long position increase for the JPY 12K short position decrease for the JPY Bullish Confluences NZD is the 5th strongest major currency whereas the JPY is the 8th strongest major currency 3K short position decrease for the NZD Stay Safe - The JPI Team Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read and responded to. We any comments at all so thank you! Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Short
by jpeacockfx
6
AUDJPY - Could The JPY Be Getting Stronger?Analysis: Bearish Confluence Factors In a downwards trend Break and retest of a previous area of support for resistance Downwards trendline touch Increase of 2K short positions for the AUD Decrease of 12K short positions for the JPY Bullish Confluence Factors AUD is the 7th strongest major currency where as the JPY is the 8th strongest major currency Stay Safe - The JPI Team Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read and responded to. We any comments at all so thank you! Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Short
by jpeacockfx
4
MXNJPY - (massive) SHORT!The BoJ, if anything, made it's "guidance" even murkier (as if that were anyway possible) with it's most recent policy announcements. E.g., let's just say that the Yen, currently residing just below the miner-frog's hind quarters, has a better chance to start working it's way higher than otherwise. Simultaneously, the Mexican Peso, having just completed a couple of moon-shots (versus the ZAR and the USD, among others) is well positioned for a pause for the cause to catch it's breath. This pair, being one of the premier carry-trades, is also a prime Short candidate to coincide with the much anticipated global equities weakness. Waiting on a Daily Reversal or to see whether this pair finds in itself to make a final push for the Stop Hunt at 8.72. (Don't bet on it!) Look for a Short Entry , anywhere here, with a short target around 6.50 ( ~25%). (... the completed cypher is on the Monthly(!), i.e., it is very powerful!) Here is the 480 min.;
Short
by Nemo_Confidat
JPYARS long Bullish Trend continuesIndustry nation Japan vs Argentina! Indact the Football Gods like Messi and Maradonna coming from Argentina,but even they cant help to stabilize the economic structures of this country:42% inflation vs 2%inflationary Japan. Yen is the safe haven currency and it seems it is more trustworthy to the investors. STRATEGY Vullish trailing stop position sizing Trend startegy?Well As traders you certainly are familiar with different trend strategies and in this market with the current conditions they might result pretty well
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
2
GBPJPY Sell Idea ??? A detailed Technical and Pictorial AnalysisHello Traders !!! Today, we will delve into the topic of JPY buying, exploring it from both fundamental and technical perspectives. It has come to our attention that many traders, excluding large investors and major players in the Forex market, are perplexed by the significant selling pressure on JPY. The answer to this question is rather straightforward: the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is not providing substantial support to JPY. When compared to other central banks, the BoJ fails to offer enticing incentives to investors. If this trend continues in the future, it will undoubtedly inflict further damage upon the value of JPY. Technical Analysis GBPJPY is currently displaying a strong uptrend from a technical standpoint, and there is optimism that it will easily reach targets of 190 and 196. However, caution is warranted at these key levels, as indicators in higher timeframes indicate significant overbought conditions. Furthermore, it is highly probable that JPY intervention will occur at these crucial levels, with a stronger connection to the USDJPY pair. Therefore, it is crucial to closely monitor the levels of USDJPY. If USDJPY surpasses the 150-152 range, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will undoubtedly intervene in the Forex market. Hence, those interested in trading GBPJPY must also pay close attention to the key levels of USDJPY. Below I am mentioning some levels to trade GBPJPY. First Trade Setup : Sell level: 189.5-190.5 stop loss: 191.950 Take profit: 187.650 Second Trade Setup : Sell level: 195-196.2 stop loss: 197.57 Take profit: 192.240 Third Trade Setup : Sell level: 199.65-200.87 stop loss: 201.98 Take profit: 196.7, 192.87, 188.10 Long trade Setup : open long position from 190 and 196 zone stop loss: 210.500 take profit : 181.57 Fundamental Analysis : When discussing fundamentals, it is notable that all central banks are adopting strict monetary policies and raising interest rates in response to inflationary pressures. As inflation continues to surge, these banks are implementing robust measures to maintain it within acceptable bounds. However, in stark contrast, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is displaying a lack of action when compared to its counterparts and maintaining an accommodative monetary stance. This behavior from the BoJ is detrimental to the value of JPY. Therefore, it is advisable to trade JPY pairs cautiously, particularly at key levels, as the BoJ has been repeatedly issuing verbal warnings regarding potential intervention. Now, let us analyze the possibility of intervention. Analyzing the Possibility of Intervention The probability of intervention is widely debated among experts, who argue that concerns regarding intervention are currently unsubstantiated. According to their analysis, Tokyo is expected to limit its actions to verbal warnings this year. Several points support this perspective: Costly nature of intervention: Japan intervened in the market last year to strengthen the yen, marking the first intervention since 1998. In previous instances, authorities had intervened to prevent the rise of the JPY, which could harm the export-oriented economy. The process of strengthening the yen through intervention is complex and expensive. To increase the exchange rate, the Ministry of Finance issues short-term bills, raising the cost of the currency, which are then sold to weaken the JPY. On the other hand, weakening the yen requires using foreign exchange reserves to exchange dollars for yen. Continuously buying currency to prevent its decline would deplete Japan's monetary reserves. Unlike selling off JPY, where Tokyo can essentially create an unlimited supply of yen, there are limitations to buying back the currency. Approximately 6.35 trillion yen (around $43 billion) was spent on supporting the yen last year. Considering this, it is unlikely that the authorities will engage in large-scale intervention this year and may instead hope for a minor and temporary retreat in the USD/JPY pair. Absence of consumer pressure: Throughout history, the Japanese government has never chosen to intervene to strengthen the yen during periods of low public dissatisfaction. A weak currency generally leads to an increase in the cost of living, causing discontent among consumers. This was observed in Japan towards the end of the previous year when fuel and commodity prices reached record highs, and the depreciation of the yen accelerated, negatively impacting local purchasing power. Consequently, public outrage prompted the government to take action. Currently, although inflation in the country remains above the target of 2%, the effects of high energy prices have diminished, resulting in significantly lower levels of public dissatisfaction. Based on this, it can be inferred that Tokyo lacks compelling reasons to initiate intervention at present. Softer tone of warnings: In recent days, the Japanese government has intensified its warnings of potential intervention. However, it is notable that the tone of these warnings has not shifted significantly. Japanese officials continue to express concerns about sudden fluctuations in the foreign exchange market while cautioning about possible actions to address excessive yen volatility. In 2022, before implementing actual intervention, the Japanese authorities adopted a much more assertive tone, using phrases such as "deeply concerned" and "decisive steps." Such strong language is absent from their latest statements. Consequently, many analysts perceive the recent warnings by Japanese authorities as mere rhetoric rather than an indication of imminent intervention. what measures BoJ will take to protect further devaluation of the JPY Let's assess the likelihood of the Japanese authorities taking measures to protect their national currency and consider the most realistic scenario for preventing further devaluation of the JPY at this stage. Increased verbal intervention: Since Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at potential tightening, the yen has experienced a sharp decline against the dollar. Japanese officials have responded by issuing daily warnings to speculators who try to profit from disparities in monetary policies between the Fed and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) by trading the USD/JPY pair. Given that the fundamental factors influencing the yen are unlikely to change in the near future, it is expected that traders will continue actively selling the Japanese currency. If the decline of the JPY accelerates, Tokyo may escalate its warnings, promising decisive action against speculative movements. Many experts view this scenario as the most likely one. Atsushi Takeda, an economist from the Itochu Research Institute, stated, "The yen's depreciation is not as significant as last year, as the United States approaches the peak of interest rates. There will likely be one or two more rate hikes. Therefore, we do not anticipate strong JPY volatility leading to further depreciation at this stage." Analysts believe that the Japanese government is primarily focused on managing the pace of currency depreciation rather than targeting a specific exchange rate. Therefore, it is expected that Tokyo will continue with verbal intervention as the USD/JPY pair approaches the 145 level, but it is unlikely to engage in actual market intervention if speculators exceed that threshold. Implementation of intervention: Last year, the Japanese government intervened in the market twice: in September when the yen approached 146 against the dollar, and in October when USD/JPY reached a 32-year high at 152. In 2022, Japan spent $65 billion on direct purchases of JPY. Implementing a new intervention would also incur significant costs for Tokyo, as the authorities would need to utilize the country's foreign exchange reserves to sell dollars. Taro Kimura, an analyst at Bloomberg Economics, noted, "Businesses and consumers are now more accepting of a weak yen compared to last year. The recent rally in Japanese stocks may also contribute to their positive sentiment." Considering these factors, along with the benefits of a weaker yen for exporters, experts consider the actual implementation of intervention at this stage to be unlikely. Japanese companies with a global presence have long been the major beneficiaries of a depreciated JPY, resulting in increased overseas earnings for firms such as Toyota, which added 1.3 trillion yen to its annual operating profit, and Sony, which experienced a sales increase of approximately 1.2 trillion yen across five key segments. Hideo Kumano, an analyst at the Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute, stated, "We believe the government will only intervene in the market if the yen suddenly falls to 150. Although they did so last year, currency intervention remains a last resort." Hawkish actions by the Bank of Japan (BoJ): Some market participants suggest that the BoJ could halt the yen's decline by adjusting its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy. Speculation has arisen that the BoJ may make its first hawkish move as early as July. However, Bloomberg analysts believe this expectation is misguided. Toru Fujioka, an economic commentator, shared, "The BoJ has consistently stated that it does not intend to directly curb the yen's depreciation using monetary policy tools, as such actions exceed its mandate and may be seen as currency manipulation." According to Fujioka, the BoJ would only consider adjusting the YCC policy if the bond market experiences significant fluctuations similar to those seen last year, coupled with persistent inflation resulting from wage increases. My Trade Setup First Trade Setup : Sell level: 189.5-190.5 stop loss: 191.950 Take profit: 187.650 Second Trade Setup : Sell level: 195-196.2 stop loss: 197.57 Take profit: 192.240 Third Trade Setup : Sell level: 199.65-200.87 stop loss: 201.98 Take profit: 196.7, 192.87, 188.10 Long trade Setup : open long position from 190 and 196 zone stop loss: 210.500 take profit : 181.57, 170.35
Short
by AhsanTufail
Seeking Pips NZDJPY Short again NZD Sell JPY buy longHaving taken our last portion off the table last week during our anticipated low of the week which was made last Friday 16/03/23 we decided to add back half our original position size back at 82.500 early this morning UK time in anticipation of price trading below last Fridays low made on 17/03/23 We are initially targeting last weeks low. The low of the year made in the first trading week looks like a good target too. Also although our SL stop loss level on this trade is smaller and lower around 150pips from our initial trade thesis we do not plan on exiting this one early if price does end up trading above the daily high put in so far today, by adding only half of our original position size from last week we are using initial profits from last weeks trade. We will consider a reentry higher if a signal develops again later in the week. If that low fails and price doesn't reject it NZDJPY could really look to flush out. We remain BULLISH on JPY and so are looking at any weaker currency's to short against it. ======================================================================================================================= PLEASE DO SUBSCRIBE IF YOU APPRECHIATE THE WORK THAT WE SHARE ON THIS PLATFORM =======================================================================================================================
Short
by seekingpips
1