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JPYUSD

USDJPY Chart Patterns: Daily Timeframe AnalysisConclusion for today's USDJPY technical analysis: A break below 104.84 price level is bearish for the USDJPY. The Daily timeframe chart is examined in today’s USDJPY analysis with over 2 years of data presented. A bearish trendline is drawn on the chart helping to indicate the bearish sentiment in the USDJPY for over 2 years and 10 months since January 03, 2019. Also drawn on the chart is support level at ~104.84 which has been tested twice in the past and most recently on the 23rd of August 2019.The bullish swing in price since testing support on August 23, 2019 met with resistance at the 200 Day moving average of the USDJPY. Additional evidence of resistance is also provided by price between 109.827 and 109.174 where a change in polarity is present (i.e. former support turning into resistance). The long term bearish trendline and support level at 104.844 combined together can also be thought of as a descending triangle chart pattern (ideally bearish). The chart pattern in this case will be confirmed on a close below the lower boundary at 104.8g44. In such a scenario, the USDJPY can be expected to sell off for weeks, if not months. Price closing above the 200 moving average on the other hand argues against any bearish bias and a close above 109.827 provides added bullish sentiment in the USDJPY.
by Coin_Analyst
JPYUSD M CHARTJPYUSD M CHART SE ESPERA UNA ULTIMA CORRECCIÓN EN LOS SIGUIENTES MESES, CUANDO LA TENDENCIA ACTUAL ROMPA LA BASE DE LA LINEA CELESTE EMPEZARA LA TENDENCIA A LA BAJA, SIGUIENDO LA DIRECCIÓN DE LA FLECHA AZUL. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ A LAST CORRECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE FOLLOWING MONTHS, WHEN THE CURRENT TREND BREAKS THE BASE OF THE HEAVY LINE START THE TREND TO THE LOW, FOLLOWING THE DIRECTION OF THE BLUE ARROW.
Long
by EdwinFernandez94
EU on it's bullish trend. Here's a trading plan. Previous Analysis on EU In my last analysis, I have called EU have made short term top and will correct to the price level where Euro is at right now. The big idea is though that Euro is on a run and we want to get a piece of it. The current support level could be a solid support to trade on short term. While I do not recommend committing fully at this level, it's worth to test water and see how it goes. As I have drawn on this chart, there are multiple way this can go, but the bottom line is support around 1.107 level should not be violated on daily candle. As long as we keep our chart steady as explained, Euro should remain bullish and its worth a long bet. One thing to note is that Global Recession could be near done (based on statistics) and we could take current phase as "Weakening Dollar Phase" as dxy has violated very important support level. My idea on dxy could be found here . Please note that this is not a TRADING recommendation. Thank you and you all have good luck with your trading!
Long
by UnknownUnicorn216273
How to Read Volume Profile StructuresWhat Is Volume Profile? There are two ways of observing the total volume transactions in any market. As a spot forex trader, you can tap into tick volumes as an accurate visual representation of the total traded volume in the X-axis, which would then make your analysis be based on time. Alternatively, you can carry out your volume study through the vertical Y-axis, in which case, you are analyzing the total activity based on price levels. It is this latter study what volume profile is about; it’s a histogram of the amounts bought and sold at specific price levels as opposed to specific times. The volume profile allows any trader to evaluate the market context to keep track of the never-ending auction process. That’s what a market is at the end of the day, a constant negotiating process to find equilibrium/agreement (via the accumulation of transactions at a certain level), and the ones that were perceived too cheap or too expensive (no volume found). The art of reading volume profile is all about studying the anatomy of the market auctions. Before taking things to the next level, allow me to walk you through some basics. When drawing your volume profile in the chart, you must become intimately familiar with the following values: 1. Point of Control (PoC): It refers to the area in the chart with the most traded volume activity. This is by far the most relevant area you want to monitor as it can help to define the placement of your stops or the areas in the chart where you might find the most pristine entry levels. The highest concentrated area of volume for a particular period of time we will call it PoC or Point of Control and you will be surprised how many times it acts as a wall on a retest. Traders tend to factor this in as an area of support or resistance. 2. High Volume Nodes (HVN): Sub-sequences in the chart with high volume activity. While not as powerful nor symbolic as the PoC, the HVN is also a powerful area as it also represents increased trading activity. 3. Value Area (VA): The range of price levels in which a specified percentage of all volume was traded. By default, the industry standards tends to be 70%. Once I explain the principle of the distribution curve below, it will become much clearer why the default number is the 70%, bear with me. There are three different types of volume profiles to use in your charts. When you first call the volume profile option through the widely popular charting package trading view, the options include: Fixed Range Visible Range Session Volume (Preferred) I personally find the combination of the daily price action activity and its respective volume flows at specific price levels the most relevant approach as I will demonstrate in the next paragraphs. The session volume allows you to constantly obtain an update to re-evaluate the market, whereas the assessment of the fixed range or the visible range is more discretionary. That said, the fixed and visible range options also serve as useful tools depending on the purpose of your analysis, that’s why I will also spend some time going through the most valuable benefits of its use. Fixed Range: Selection Of Interest Levels A La Carte Trading the markets, especially if you are an intraday trader, involves constant interaction with your charts. You are constantly looking for areas that you can lean against to take certain actions. Right? This first fixed range option allows you to select any area in the chart to deconstruct the total activity. This is a tool that can be of enormous value if you are looking to tighten or trail your stops as well as spotting areas of most interest to enter your positions. Let’s say that you wanted to play a short in the EUR/USD 30m chart after the breakout of the range. A fairly conventional strategy would have been to wait for the price to break below the two horizontal support levels and enter short on a retest of either one of them. The next logical question would then be, where would you place your stop? If you are trading conservatively, you’d probably be placing your stop somewhere above the 1.16 in order to leave enough wiggle room in case the rebound returns back into the range. However, if you think about it, there are other areas in the chart that still make a lot of sense to capitalize on. If you were interested in tightening your stop in such a magnitude that your short trade could exploit the prospects of a much larger risk reward, you could then be tapping into the power of the fixed range volume profile to identify at what price level after the range breakout the highest concentration of volume occurred. You could then use this as an area of relevance to assist your action as a seller. In the example, it may have been a great area to play with a much tighter stop. There is a multitude of examples I could provide about the usefulness of the fixed range volume profile. However, since I want the core of this tutorial to be about the session volume structures, I’d refrain from further chart illustrations unless you want me to (post comments below). I am sure you can figure out how it could be of benefit to you, depending on your trading style. Visible Range: The Macro View Of The Market As the name indicates, the visible range option unpacks as much trading activity as data is in your chart. It portrays the big picture view of the most-traded price levels over a specified period of time. This option is most suited as part of your daily or weekly analysis to spot areas of interest in the chart. By stepping back and projecting an eagle-view from a macro level, it helps you to easily identify key supports and resistances, which is what I mainly suggest to use the visible range for. One of the most powerful approaches that I recommend is to select your macro areas of interest by zooming out your charts. Once done, you can start drawing horizontal rectangles at every high volume nodes (in black) or low volume node (in red). The areas highlighted will be by far the most relevant that you want to be paying attention going forward.
Education
by Mr_YOGi
1
The unwind is comingJPYUSD broke out today with a huge 1% move to break out of a 4 year long wedge. This is a bit of a technical move, but it has loads of fundamental implications. Before I go into detail, note that before and during every major market breakdown, JPY spikes, at least in modern times. It has a reputation as a safety currency / safe haven due to this reputation. The reason being that Japan has had extremely low interest rates for a very long time, making it an ideal currency to borrow in, then purchase foreign bonds. IE, a carry trade. The reason it's a safe haven is that when risk starts to occur, traders who have huge positions built up buying foreign fixed income of any variety will sell those positions, and will re-purchase their Yen as they do so. The problem here is that this can become a bit of a feedback loop. As we see liquidations in these bond positions, this will force more traders to cover, resulting in the Yen rising more and more. This started to occur in 2007 before the financial crisis.. it was actually one of the dominant stories of that era (see www.marketwatch.com) . If only more people knew what this meant for overall financial markets. US High Yield One of the biggest risks that has been identified by many people over the past 1-2 years has been the pervasive reach for yield. There has been a significant bubble of corporate debt built up over the past decade, and a lot of it is covenant light, or poorly rated. When the yen rises, corporate debt gets liquidated... Turns out, a significant portion of the buyers of US corporate debt have been asian buyers who's own sovereign bonds are negative yielding. There have been recent stories that many of these purchases have been made un-hedged even... So long story short, the JPYUSD carry trade can be used to proxy risks to the US corporate debt bubble, and by association, the global reach for yield. This is a trade that can seriously unwind... big potential for negative convexity here in my opinion. IF this continues to break to the upside, it'll cause a lot of issues in markets globally, but watch the high yield space (BDC's, corporate bond etf's, etc).
by GTStockmaster
2