USD/JPY (LONG) - Technical & Fundamental AnalysisI will be looking to enter a long trade within the purple box which is a key daily zone that has previously acted as a resistance for price and we are now looking for it to act as support.
We have added confluence to this trade via the blue trend line which we can see has previously been well respected and therefore this increases confidence that this will serve as an area of support.
Fundamentally, we have seen the dollar finally start to show some weakness today following the steep decline in US equities caused by the growing market fears of a Corona Virus pandemic. However, it is my view that this will be a short lived decline for the dollar. It is still perceived to be the strongest economy in terms of weathering an economic slowdown should the virus continue to worsen. The Yen on the other hand is facing a weakening economy which will only get worse given its closer exposure to China, therefore this correction is USD/JPY is likely to be short lived and we look to take a long position using tech analysis to find our entry
JPYUSD
JPYUSD Third leg M in productionDaily Chart:
Price action is touching higher timeframe trendline en will have higher probability to come down again.
Also M in production to produce its third leg down.
With Fibonnaci in place, my projection TP is back down to the 100% fibonnaci.
Wait on Price action on the 1 Hour Time Frame. (Sell position)
USDJPY approching buy zone NOTE: its best to wait for more confirmation...we must see if it takes support 1 or 2.
if it goes to support 2 maybe support 1 becomes resistance.
USDJPY is approaching the 1st buy zone. if it takes support we can expect a bounce up to 1st or 2nd resistance. if it breaks above 1st resistance then move sl on it and move tp to 2nd resistance (my opinion).
Nikkei USDJPY ratio at a very significant levelTVC:NI225/USDJP is at the same level it was in 1991,1995,1997,2018. The horiztontal trendline extends from 1990-2019 nearly 30 years. A closing above this trendline on a monthly basis will signal a bullish scenario in the Japanese stock market in my opinion.
USDJPY Chart Patterns: Daily Timeframe AnalysisConclusion for today's USDJPY technical analysis: A break below 104.84 price level is bearish for the USDJPY.
The Daily timeframe chart is examined in today’s USDJPY analysis with over 2 years of data presented.
A bearish trendline is drawn on the chart helping to indicate the bearish sentiment in the USDJPY for over 2 years and 10 months since January 03, 2019.
Also drawn on the chart is support level at ~104.84 which has been tested twice in the past and most recently on the 23rd of August 2019.The bullish swing in price since testing support on August 23, 2019 met with resistance at the 200 Day moving average of the USDJPY.
Additional evidence of resistance is also provided by price between 109.827 and 109.174 where a change in polarity is present (i.e. former support turning into resistance). The long term bearish trendline and support level at 104.844 combined together can also be thought of as a descending triangle chart pattern (ideally bearish).
The chart pattern in this case will be confirmed on a close below the lower boundary at 104.8g44. In such a scenario, the USDJPY can be expected to sell off for weeks, if not months.
Price closing above the 200 moving average on the other hand argues against any bearish bias and a close above 109.827 provides added bullish sentiment in the USDJPY.