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JPYUSD

XAUUSD: Gold about to rallyWe have fulfilled my initial expected outcome (check related ideas) and broke below 'everyone's stop' like it has been customary in gold this year. I think we're in the prescence of a sideways/megaphone pattern style thing, where we have a false breakout before each turn. The arrows show the false breaks, and the green X's show the turns. I think we can expect to retest the election day range, or the Brexit day key level zone before going back down, so that's what I aim for. Risk here is a $26 to $80 dollar drop. The thing here is that we haven't managed to break above the long term downtrend mode, since we're back below it, and we have risk of a rate hike in December, so the rally that we get here, could be a pullback in a longer term downtrend. I'll be looking to add to my longs that I opened here (1186 entry) if we get progress and then sell, and sell short at the top, using longer term chart levels for my entry and stop. I've bought EURUSD at 1.0534, with stop at 1.0397 as well, since both are at potential spots for a bottom, after making a 'false break'. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
6
The relative currency contribution to the DXY surge after Trump A temper tantrum is an emotional outburst, usually associated with children or those in emotional distress, that is typically characterized by stubbornness, crying, screaming, defiance, anger ranting, a resistance to attempts at pacification and, in some cases, hitting (source wikipedia). The Trumper Tantrum is a combination of fears about US trade wars and optimism about a possible US economic surge if Trump succeeds is growing the US economy and bringing overseas companies (and their cash) plus overseas investors back into the USA. Trump does not want a strong USD. I am short DXY and long AUXUSD (roughly follows the Yen), GDX. While tntsunrise and others expect a further fall in AUXUSD to $1120 or lower, I am respectfully more inclined to see JPYUSD and AUXUSD rising if DXY falls. The COT report for gold, day, etc will be released Monday due to Friday being a federal holiday. There will likely be multiple Fed/FOMC interest rate rises in the next 18 months which could strengthen DXY. Inflation would hurt DXY. I am more into the bond/debt crash camp with hyperinflation first and deflation later. Trump may succeed with the US economy and delay the bubble burst for a while.
INDEX:DXYShort
by haug01
EURJPY: Trend following made easyI'd like to share a trade opportunity in this pair. You can see how the moving average on chart shows when it's a good chance to short this pair, looking to rejoin the dominant downtrend in place. We can now enter at market, (if not already in...I'm short from 116.191, and added at 115.164). The price has hit a strong level, which coincides with the mid point of the Brexit induced decline, as well as a recent daily downtrend's resistance, so I expect this pair to roll over, and proceed to accelerate to the downside soon. Good luck if taking this trade, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
7
Non Farm Payrolls impact on USDJPY by ForexSQWhat you should know about Non Farm Payrolls this Friday by #ForexSQ goo.gl USD/JPY is staying close to 50% Fibo retracement of its last downward movement around 103.40 area. With a decisive move above that resistance pair may target 104.10/20 area where Fibo %61.8 retracement of the same movement and Fibo %38.2 retracement of major downfall that started towards the end of January and lasted for about 6 months is located (red horizontal line). Also the fact that the pair is above its 50 DMA is also support continuation of upward movement. 101.20 area where 20 DMA and Fibo %23.6 retracement is located is the first short term support that may attract the buyers again in case of a downward consolidation. BoJ is one of the other major banks that signal more expansion in near future. Latest comments from government and BoJ officials show that they leave the door open for more interest rate cuts further into negative area.
by ForexSQ
Listen to Janet Yellen. She's always right.My first analysis.. !! Janet Yellen and other FOMC members claims last friday that United states is ready to increase rate. Many analysts belive that Yellen might increase rate on both September and December this year. However, I do think we will only see one time rate hike... !!! because of President election. President Obama had to face world economic crisis on 2008. Untill president Obama retire his position, he want soft market to expand obama care. In other words, Yellen must not increase rate on September but will on December (2016). Yellen increased interest rate 0.25% last year December. If she doesn't increase rate this December, it might damage stock market because people will think market is not ready. Plus, if she doesn't increase rate this year, she might to have to increase rate faster than supposed to be next year. Japanese story is, BOJ want to stimulus market on September. (but since USD turn bullish, BOJ doesn't need to bring huge stimulus package) In conclusion, USD will be strong till mid September, and JPY will be weaker till end of this year. ** Target price 1: 104.1 (short term) ** Target price 2: 105.26 (before end of September) ** Target price 3: 110.066 ( till end of this year) Good luck, It's might first post. I hope I helped your portfolio. P.S. I got in USD/JPY long position between 99 and 100
Long
by STOCKOUS
1
Down Goes The Dollar?The Dollar/Yen has been in a downtrend for quite some time. Many traders, myself included, believed that the dollar was headed up. But…when the supply line of the trend channel was reached, prices did just as expected — turn down. As we speak, we have a trading range taking place in the middle of the major trend channel, which I believe is a pullback before further weakness. We can’t say this with any high degree of assurance until the bottom of the range (100.6) is taken out. After that, 99 would be the price level to watch for a potential level of support. If 99 fails to bring in a new wave of buying, this pair could fall much further if the dollar is in a legit bear market. Equally so, if 99 turns out to be a support level, we may be at the start of a new bull market in this pair. One final note — From a really long-term perspective, namely the monthly chart, the USD/JPY’s recent fall may just be a correction.
Short
by CarterBoyFX
JPYUSD: The yen rally continuesAfter Bernanke visited Japan, and whispered into Kuroda's ear, the market reacted with a strong decline in the Yen, accompanied by a broad risk on rally that absorbed the Brexit losses. It's possible that this rally has topped, with all or most bears forced to cover their shorts, collaborating with the momentum run. If you are a 'Key Hidden Levels' subscriber, one look at the RgMov indicator here will tell you what the main trend is, and when to enter long to rejoin this trend. It'll be a good idea to enter longs above today's high on Monday, with stops under today's low, or you can speculate on this new daily high, and just enter at market now. It's up to your risk aversion and discretion, just keep in mind the setup's rules involve buying the new daily high on Monday, and sacrificing a couple pips, for a lower risk entry. Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com If interested in my real time whatsapp alerts and swing trading newsletter, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers! Ivan Labrie Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask. Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by IvanLabrie